Politer Politics

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of chatter about George W. Bush planning to endorse Harris. I read an article saying "Trump is terrified of GWB endorsing Harris." I think it would be a huge boost for Trump. 

Bush was awful.  It wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Hoosier]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've never been to Western PA, but rural PA is just beautiful countryside. Wasn't impressed by Philly. 

I drove through the entire length of Pennsylvania before and it is nice.  It seemed like it took forever though.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I guess I'm just still not accepting GA has shifted from being a reliably red state.  They did elect their Republican governor by quite a margin though.  That's one thing that amazes me about the Eastern part of the country.  You have many states with mixed government unlike the far West who just mindlessly vote Democrat.

I think a Mitt Romney or John McCain type of candidate would still win GA by 4-5%. On the other hand those type of candidates don't do as well in the upper Midwest.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of chatter about George W. Bush planning to endorse Harris. I read an article saying "Trump is terrified of GWB endorsing Harris." I think it would be a huge boost for Trump. 

This would break from Bush's tendency of staying out of politics since he left office.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think a Mitt Romney or John McCain type of candidate would still win GA by 4-5%. On the other hand those type of candidates don't do as well in the upper Midwest.

Both gag worthy.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Hoosier said:

This would break from Bush's tendency of staying out of politics since he left office.

I question whether he will be able to get past her social views.  Bush is conservative on that stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Hoosier said:

This would break from Bush's tendency of staying out of politics since he left office.

I doubt he will. 

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Both gag worthy.

I never like McCain. I don't actually have that big of an issue with Romney. Though the groveling he did to Trump after his election in 2016 was pretty pathetic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I question whether he will be able to get past her social views.  Bush is conservative on that stuff.

Bush would have been so much more respected had he lost in 2004. 

[Deweydog]

All this Bushbashing makes me wonder what kind of revised lens Trump will be viewed through after 4MY.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

All this Bushbashing makes me wonder what kind of revised lens Trump will be viewed through after 4MY.

It's hard to say. If he loses this election and our country continues to decline during a Harris Administration then I think he will be looked back upon in a better light. If he wins and we have some kind of economic recession during his term he will be broadly panned. 

Biden's legacy is going to be pretty horrific. Especially if Harris loses. 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's hard to say. If he loses this election and our country continues to decline during a Harris Administration then I think he will be looked back upon in a better light. If he wins and we have some kind of economic recession during his term he will be broadly panned. 

Biden's legacy is going to be pretty horrific. Especially if Harris loses. 

If Trump wins I really think he's going to do a very good job.  You never know though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this was already posted, but I'm laughing so hard. It's funny because it's true!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly, I think Trump is in a pretty good position right now. It's a 50/50 race, but he's really holding his own against an incredible onslaught from the media. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of chatter about George W. Bush planning to endorse Harris. I read an article saying "Trump is terrified of GWB endorsing Harris." I think it would be a huge boost for Trump. 

TRAITOR!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly, I think Trump is in a pretty good position right now. It's a 50/50 race, but he's really holding his own against an incredible onslaught from the media. 

Most people don’t care what the media says about Trump anyways…they can smear him as much as they want but so many people just straight up don’t believe them or don’t even watch in the first place because they have no credibility. It’s hard to try and smear Trump when nobody believes anything the media spews out…

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If Trump wins I really think he's going to do a very good job.  You never know though.

Of course you do.   

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly, I think Trump is in a pretty good position right now. It's a 50/50 race, but he's really holding his own against an incredible onslaught from the media. 

Would like to see how polls go in the next few days (still just a week post-convention), but it really seems like momentum toward Harris has plateaued.  Barring anything big, we're probably kind of in a holding pattern at least until the debate.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Most people don’t care what the media says about Trump anyways…they can smear him as much as they want but so many people just straight up don’t believe them or don’t even watch in the first place because they have no credibility. It’s hard to try and smear Trump when nobody believes anything the media spews out…

Media doesn't matter.   Outside of the MAGA bubble... people see his stupidity with their own eyes and ears.  Nobody has to be told what to think.   Its self evident.   That is why it would be best for his campaign if he just disappears until November.   

[Hoosier]

There's a scenario in which the upcoming debate could cause significant movement in the polls, but I think it's more likely than not that the debate won't cause that much movement (guess anything can be considered significant in a close race though).  

Having the mics muted will put a floor on how bad that Trump's performance can be, though there's still some peril with how he could come across.  I'm also not sure how effectively he will make the case against Harris, and even if he is pretty good at hitting her on policy, a lot of people just kind of take him with a grain of salt.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Media doesn't matter.   Outside of the MAGA bubble... people see his stupidity with their own eyes and ears.  Nobody has to be told what to think.   It’s self evident.   That is why it would be best for his campaign if he just disappears until November.   

The media credibility does matter though. Look at how negatively they’re trying to paint him 24/7. He does a good job of painting himself bad too…but the amount of political pressures and targeting on him is crazy. Trump derangement syndrome is very real. The way he’s negatively framed in every way possible by the media shows their clear bias. 

  It feeds into his narrative of “I’m the victim and the deep state is after me”. Which there is some truth to that because the establishment is absolutely out to get him. He’s obviously flawed and there’s some truth to what the media says about him but there’s also clear lies or statements taken out of context.
 There’s clearly massive bias against him…and the bias against him makes what he’s saying believable to most people. So when he lies, and he’s called out on it…all he can say is “FAKE NEWZ” and people eat it up…because the media lies about him too. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The media credibility does matter though. Look at how negatively they’re trying to paint him 24/7. He does a good job of painting himself bad too…but the amount of political pressures and targeting on him is crazy. Trump derangement syndrome is very real. The way he’s negatively framed in every way possible by the media shows their clear bias. 

  It feeds into his narrative of “I’m the victim and the deep state is after me”. Which there is some truth to that because the establishment is absolutely out to get him. He’s obviously flawed and there’s some truth to what the media says about him but there’s also clear lies or statements taken out of context.
 There’s clearly massive bias against him…and the bias against him makes what he’s saying believable to most people. So when he lies, and he’s called out on it…all he can say is “FAKE NEWZ” and people eat it up…because the media lies about him too. 

This is way too forgiving of Trump.   Its an understatement to say he is his own worst enemy.   And apparently Kamala Derangement Syndrome is real too.   Suddenly she is personally to blame for every bad thing that happens on planet Earth.  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is way too forgiving of Trump.   Its an understatement to say he is his own worst enemy.   And apparently Kamala Derangement Syndrome is real too.   Suddenly she is personally to blame for every bad thing that happens on planet Earth.  

I don’t like either of them this race is a race to the bottom IMO. I’m just explaining how the media has cried wolf on Trump so much that nobody believes them anymore. I think you believe too much of what MSM is putting out and believe that the majority of Americans will buy into it too. Reality is most people have tuned out MSM and CNN. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

PA has been looking great.  They almost totally avoided the post Biden bounce.  They are engaged for this election.  Could PA be the next Ohio?

WTF is up with GA though.

Atlanta, GA is a very blue city

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I don’t like either of them this race is a race to the bottom IMO. I’m just explaining how the media has cried wolf on Trump so much that nobody believes them anymore. I think you believe too much of what MSM is putting out and believe that the majority of Americans will buy into it too. Reality is most people have tuned out MSM and CNN. 

CNN has been pretty fair overall.   I have heard Trump surrogates praising CNN for their fairness in the first debate.   And if everyone tunes out the MSM then you are making my point.   Its irrelevant what they say.   People make up their own minds

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've never been to Western PA, but rural PA is just beautiful countryside. Wasn't impressed by Philly. 

I've been to SW PA, a pretty place

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly, I think Trump is in a pretty good position right now. It's a 50/50 race, but he's really holding his own against an incredible onslaught from the media. 

I feel better than I did a week ago.  The Harris wave probably came too early to serve her best.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

CNN has been pretty fair overall.   I have heard Trump surrogates praising CNN for their fairness in the first debate.   And if everyone tunes out the MSM then you are making my point.   Its irrelevant what they say.   People make up their own minds

CNN has improved from when they hit rock bottom a few years ago.  It was an absolute clown show during Trump's Presidency.  

[TT-SEA]

Conservative tells GOP donors to 'focus on the Senate' as it’s 'unlikely' Trump will win (msn.com)

In an opinion column published by the Washington Post on August 29, conservative journalist Jim Geraghty — known for his work for the National Review — is bullish on the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate but not on Trump's chances of defeating Harris.

The conservative journalist stresses that although a "compelling, policy-based argument" against Harris can be made, a "78-year-old candidate with the attention span of a toddler is proving incapable of making it."

"I, for one, would love to see Trump debate Harris while under the effects of attention-focusing Ritalin," Geraghty argues. "Disaffected Republicans, exhausted with a presidential nominee who seems determined to throw away every opportunity, might find it more worthwhile to focus their efforts elsewhere: building the strongest possible Republican majority in the Senate."

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Conservative tells GOP donors to 'focus on the Senate' as it’s 'unlikely' Trump will win (msn.com)

In an opinion column published by the Washington Post on August 29, conservative journalist Jim Geraghty — known for his work for the National Review — is bullish on the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate but not on Trump's chances of defeating Harris.

The conservative journalist stresses that although a "compelling, policy-based argument" against Harris can be made, a "78-year-old candidate with the attention span of a toddler is proving incapable of making it."

"I, for one, would love to see Trump debate Harris while under the effects of attention-focusing Ritalin," Geraghty argues. "Disaffected Republicans, exhausted with a presidential nominee who seems determined to throw away every opportunity, might find it more worthwhile to focus their efforts elsewhere: building the strongest possible Republican majority in the Senate."

I haven't seen / heard if James Carville still thinks Trump will win or not.  Ironically Carville is a Democrat.  Maybe some pessimism on both sides?

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

All this Bushbashing makes me wonder what kind of revised lens Trump will be viewed through after 4MY.

We got a sliver of that already. When DeSantis announced his bid for the ticket, there was worse-than-Trump hand-wringing. If Trump does get another term, It’ll be 15-20 years before Democrats pine for the Trump years as they’re doing now re: Bush. If Trump croaks in office from a coronary, it’ll be less than 15 years for Trump nostalgia. 

[snow_wizard]

I just looked and Carville is leaning toward Harris now, but he thinks Trump could still win.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I haven't seen / heard if James Carville still thinks Trump will win or not.  Ironically Carville is a Democrat.  Maybe some pessimism on both sides?

Carville is saying Dems need to be on offense.   Alan Lichtman is going to make his prediction after Labor Day.   I think he is leaning towards Kamala but we will see.   He correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020.  

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Carville is saying Dems need to be on offense.   Alan Lichtman is going to make his prediction after Labor Day.   I think he is leaning towards Kamala but we will see.   He correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020.  

The really impressive prediction was Trump winning in 2016.  I think most were giving Hillary like an 80-90% chance.

[Iceresistance]

I am convinced that we could be facing a Republican House and Senate but a Democrat POTUS, could this be enough to Dump Trump while keeping the congress majority?

[Groundhog]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Conservative tells GOP donors to 'focus on the Senate' as it’s 'unlikely' Trump will win (msn.com)

In an opinion column published by the Washington Post on August 29, conservative journalist Jim Geraghty — known for his work for the National Review — is bullish on the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate but not on Trump's chances of defeating Harris.

The conservative journalist stresses that although a "compelling, policy-based argument" against Harris can be made, a "78-year-old candidate with the attention span of a toddler is proving incapable of making it."

"I, for one, would love to see Trump debate Harris while under the effects of attention-focusing Ritalin," Geraghty argues. "Disaffected Republicans, exhausted with a presidential nominee who seems determined to throw away every opportunity, might find it more worthwhile to focus their efforts elsewhere: building the strongest possible Republican majority in the Senate."

Not so fast, says Nate. 

What is certain is that the media won’t do their job in scrutinizing Harris—just joy and brat propaganda and allowing Walz to hold her hand so they can keep their stories straight in a staged pillow fight. They gave the same pass to Biden in 2020.

Consider the nightmare she becomes president. Just like Biden didn’t recover from the Afghanistan debacle as his incompetence and callousness was on display, it’ll be some crisis that exposes Harris’ incompetence. She’ll plummet and not recover as well. One term wonder. 

For years conservative media reported Biden was senile, incompetent, and unpleasant. Despite the MSM trying to paper over that, it became impossible to hide. Conservative media is saying that Harris is incompetent and not that bright. It’ll become impossible to hide was well. That’s what happens when MSM doesn’t do their job. 
 

Trump. No surprised there. No skeletons the media are trying to ram back in the closet. 

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-trump-now-favored-to-win-2024-election-in-new-nate-silver-forecast

 

[Tenochtitlan]

2 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Not so fast, says Nate. 

What is certain is that the media won’t do their job in scrutinizing Harris—just joy and brat propaganda and allowing Walz to hold her hand so they can keep their stories straight in a staged pillow fight. They gave the same pass to Biden in 2020.

Consider the nightmare she becomes president. Just like Biden didn’t recover from the Afghanistan debacle as his incompetence and callousness was on display, it’ll be some crisis that exposes Harris’ incompetence. She’ll plummet and not recover as well. One term wonder. 

For years conservative media reported Biden was senile, incompetent, and unpleasant. Despite the MSM trying to paper over that, it became impossible to hide. Conservative media is saying that Harris is incompetent and not that bright. It’ll become impossible to hide was well. That’s what happens when MSM doesn’t do their job. 
 

Trump. No surprised there. No skeletons the media are trying to ram back in the closet. 

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-trump-now-favored-to-win-2024-election-in-new-nate-silver-forecast

 

Biden handled the Afghanistan withdrawal poorly.

In terms of amount of people who died, Trump’s disastrous Covid response is much worse. 
I’m sure you disagree, though. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Not so fast, says Nate. 

What is certain is that the media won’t do their job in scrutinizing Harris—just joy and brat propaganda and allowing Walz to hold her hand so they can keep their stories straight in a staged pillow fight. They gave the same pass to Biden in 2020.

Consider the nightmare she becomes president. Just like Biden didn’t recover from the Afghanistan debacle as his incompetence and callousness was on display, it’ll be some crisis that exposes Harris’ incompetence. She’ll plummet and not recover as well. One term wonder. 

For years conservative media reported Biden was senile, incompetent, and unpleasant. Despite the MSM trying to paper over that, it became impossible to hide. Conservative media is saying that Harris is incompetent and not that bright. It’ll become impossible to hide was well. That’s what happens when MSM doesn’t do their job. 
 

Trump. No surprised there. No skeletons the media are trying to ram back in the closet. 

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-trump-now-favored-to-win-2024-election-in-new-nate-silver-forecast

 

Personally don't care if Kamala is a one term president.   If she wins then Trump was also a one-term president.    And its best for the country that Trump disappear from the political scene above all else.   A Republican Senate would keep Kamala in check.  

[Tenochtitlan]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
 

Regardless of short term trends, the past couple months have been great for Dem chances of winning the election. We’ve gone from just a marginal chance, to basically a dead heat between the two candidates.

It’s anyone’s game at this point. I still think it’s too early to predict with any confidence who will win. 

[Hoosier]

One thing I noticed on Nate Silver's model is that although Kamala wins the popular vote, it has Trump breaking 48%.  Trump has not won 48% in his previous 2 times on the ballot.  I think he got a tick under 47% in 2020 and even slightly lower in 2016.