September 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Tomorrow we will put meteorological summer behind us and  entered the meteorological  fall season. The next few weeks there is still a chance of some warm days but after the 15th to the 20th there will be a noticeable decline in both daylight and temperatures.

Here are some averages for Grand Rapids for meteorological fall. The current 30-year average each of the fall months are September, Average mean temperature 63.5 Precipitation 3.43” snow fall 0. October average mean temperature 51.5 Precipitation 4.02” snow fall 0.3” November average mean temperature 40.0 precipitation 3.10” snow fall 7.1” The shorter 15-year average temperature for September is 64.2 precipitation 3.38” snow fall 0. For October the average temperature is 51.7 precipitation 5.04” and snow fall 0.2” For November the average temperature is 40.3 precipitation is 2.50” and snow fall 5.0” now looking back at the old 1981/2010 averages September old mean was 62.8 precipitation 4.28 snow fall 0. For October temperature 51.0 precipitation 3.26 snow fall 0.5 for November temperature 40.1 precipitation 3.51 and snow fall 6.8” over the last 40 years the temperature has moved upward, and precipitation has been more up and down. Snow fall has decreased a little.

The current 30-year average mean for meteorological fall at Grand Rapids is 51.6 the new 15 year average is 52.1.  The record warmest autumn was in 1931 with a mean of 57.5° The coldest was in 1976 with a mean of 45.8. The wettest was in 1988 with 17.68” the driest was in 1956 with just 2.59” the most snow fall was in 2014 with 31.0” (all of which fell in November) the least snowfall was a trace in several years the last time was in 1984.

For the month of September as stated above the 30-year average mean is 63.5 the 15 year mean is 64.2. Since 1892 the warmest mean is 69.0 in 1931 the mean was 68.1 in 1933 and 1908, in 1921 the mean was 67.9 in 1906 it was 67.5 and in 2015 it was 67.2 for the top 5 warmest. The coldest mean in September is the 56.2 in 1918 with 56.4 in 1974, 56.5 in 1993, 56.9 in 1975 and the 58.1 in 1949 being the 5 coldest. Last year the mean was 65.6. In the last 5 years 4 of the 5 have been warmer than average. The hottest day in September was the 98 on September 2nd 1913. It reached 97 in 1954, 1953 and 1939 and 96 in 2017, 1960 and 1927 for the hottest days in September. Over the years it has reached 90 or better in 51 years so we can still get a hot day in September. The most days of 90 or better is 7 in 1931 there were 6 days in 2017. The last time it reached 90 or better in September was in 2018. The record low for the month is a cold 27 on September 28th 1991. It has gotten below 30 in September a total of 7 years and 32 or below in 24 years and below 35 (for a frost?) a total of 34 years. I have a picture on my phone of frost on September 19, 2020, when the official low of 36 was reported. The wettest September was in 1986 when a total of 11.85” of rain fell at Grand Rapids and the driest was in 1979 when just a trace was reported.

[westMJim]

The CPC should issue a updated long range guess for September later today. Here is the latest CFSv2 long range guess for most of September.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

 

[Tom]

Hello College Football Season!!  It will certainly start feeling like autumn for a large part of our SUB in a couple days. The pattern next weekend reminds me of the earlier cycles of the LRC that setup last autumn.  Who's ready for some chilly mornings???

Check this out, the cut-off trough that tracks over the GL's next weekend has origins of energy coming straight out from the Arctic Circle!  Check out this animation...

The Vortex spinning over the Archipelago is part of the old pattern....still a lot of time to see how this plays out but it appears that there will be a lot of blocking just north of the border.  Will the GFS score a coupe?

My best friend is staying in Playa De Carmen and I have already informed him that a Tropical Storm is looking likely to hit around 9/8...the hurricane season should kick into over drive next couple weeks.  Look out NE Gulf of Mexico!

 

[westMJim]

Here is a link to the updated September long range guess by the CPC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

[james1976]

Looking forward to fall. There's already some leaves coming down. No color but falling leaves gets me in the mood. This is the time of year I start looking more at the models.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

[Black Hole]

This forecast is perfection for early September around here. I'll happily ride this into mid-month and then it's that much harder to see mid 90s and humid. 

[westMJim]

Welcome to September. In looking back at August 2024 it was just about average temperature wise with a mean of 71.3 that is a departure of +0.2. The average H/L for the month was 81.2/61.4 the highest reading was 93 on the 27th and the lowest was 49 on the 21st there was 2.27” of rainfall that is a departure of -1.28”

In looking back at the meteorological summer, the summer mean at Grand Rapids was 71.1 the average mean for meteorological summer is 70.9 that is a departure of just +0.2 so mostly a average summer season. There were just 6 days of 90 or better and depending on September that will be the lowest number of 90° days since 2015. There was a total of 12.83” of rainfall that is a departure of +1.48”

[Tom]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Welcome to September. In looking back at August 2024 it was just about average temperature wise with a mean of 71.3 that is a departure of +0.2. The average H/L for the month was 81.2/61.4 the highest reading was 93 on the 27th and the lowest was 49 on the 21st there was 2.27” of rainfall that is a departure of -1.28”

In looking back at the meteorological summer, the summer mean at Grand Rapids was 71.1 the average mean for meteorological summer is 70.9 that is a departure of just +0.2 so mostly a average summer season. There were just 6 days of 90 or better and depending on September that will be the lowest number of 90° days since 2015. There was a total of 12.83” of rainfall that is a departure of +1.48”

My cousin and his family went to Muskegon Lake which is not far from your place.  He said the lake is a wee bit chilly but the weather is perfect.

[Tom]

Lions and Bear's are playing their opening games at home next SUN and it looks a bit chilly for Tailgating....how about some 40's/50's to start off the day???  Nice autumn weather to put everyone if the Autumn mood.  I see the 0z Euro took a bite off the GFS for next weekend.

While you guys out east CHILL out...I'm gonna BAKE for a few days next week.  I knew we had one more Heat wave to deal with but the pattern will shift mid and late SEP down here.  Boy, daytime highs in the 90's will feel dramatically different.  Until you lived out in the desert SW, you can't comprehend what a difference just 10 degrees feels like..not to mention, I lived through the Hottest Summer on Record for Phoenix.  Check that off the Bucket List!

 

[Clinton]

I got some very nice temperatures to start September but it is dry with very little rain in the forecast for at least the next 10 days.

[Timmy Supercell]

I dig the Fall theme on the website. Hoping Fall is around the corner here IRL.

Yesterday was active with t'storms on multiple occasions, there was one around 2-3am, another at 11 and then a longer one with closer strikes from 5-6pm. Still nothing quite severe at my immediate location, looked like there were high wind reports not far from me. MCS's still form but they are more recently shorter lived or break up into segments as they move over us.

[james1976]

60s/40s next weekend. Bring it on!

[Andie]

Overcast, 86*,  humidity 58%.  
Some rain please?

Earlier this evening. 

[westMJim]

I hope everyone is enjoying this Labor Day weekend. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/56 there was no rainfall the sun was out 92% of the time. The highest wind gust was 28 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 98 was set in 1913 the coldest high of 53 was set in 1974 the record low of 37 was set in 1946 the warmest low of 74 was set in 2011 and 1937. The most rainfall of 2.17” fell in 1923.

It is clear and cool here this morning with a current temperature here in MBY of 47. The weather for the Mackinac Bridge Walk looks good it will be cool but there is just a light wind there this morning the latest temperature is 47 with a west wind of 3 MPH. Here is some information on the bridge walk.

https://www.mackinacbridge.org/events/walk/

[Tom]

19 hours ago, Andie said:

Overcast, 86*,  humidity 58%.  
Some rain please?

Earlier this evening. 

I enjoy watching rain shafts at a distance...I see them here almost daily now ever since the monsoon picked up a bit...it's going to torch this coming week for a few days but that's ok as long as it cools down later in the month.

[Tom]

Big changes per the 0z EPS as it really is blocking up that GL's trough and slowly moves east into Ontario.  This is a great example of the LRC as it happened, if i remember correctly, in the earlier cycles. I recall vividly back in OCT/NOV of last year how these troughs got blocked up and spun for almost like a week straight. 

As a result, it is cooling things off for longer duration starting next weekend...GFS for the win???  ICON is starting to sniff out a same scenario...Hello Blocky Blocky...

Check out this animation below...right around 18z (1:00pm CST Tuesday), look way up north near the Arctic Circle and find the 543mb trough...it's tracking due S/SE and eventually into the GL's!  Pretty amazing to see this pattern cycle in late Summer.

 

[chescowxman]

A great weather week ahead as we start September. We should see high temps start below normal and moderate to near normal in the upper 70's by the end of the week. Nightime lows will reach the 40's in some areas tonight and especially tomorrow night in the lower locales of the county. Our next rain chances wait till Friday night.

Chester County records for today: High 105 degrees in Phoenixville (1954) / Low 40 degrees at Kennett Square (1909) / Rain 2.24" at Phoenixville (2006)

[Niko]

Here are some Greece summer pics: 2024

 

[Andie]

Awesome photos!   
 

We have a wonder start for early Fall in No Tx.  
Pinch me!

[westMJim]

It was a sunny but cool Labor Day here in Grand Rapids the official H/L was 74/48 there was no rainfall the sun was out 95% of the time. For today the average H/L is 78/58. The record high of 95 was set in 1898 and 1953 the coldest high of 58 was set in 1905. The record low of 32 was set in 1946, the warmest low of 73 was set in 1937. The record rainfall of 1.42” fell in 1988.

The overnight low and current temperature is 48 degrees. The record low of 32 for today is the earliest first 32 day at Grand Rapids.  The forecast is hinting at there being 3 days in a row with highs in the 60’s in looking at past September’s it is not uncommon for there to be 3 days or so of highs in the 60 in early September. It is after all early fall.

[Tom]

I'm diggin' what I'm seeing across the E PAC as we enter the mid point of SEP...both the GEFS/EPS are sniffing out some tropical trouble up into the Baja of Cali.  This is usually the part of the season that tends to deliver tropical storms/moisture into our region and it extends into OCT when the new LRC pattern sets up. 

[chescowxman]

This morning's low here in East Nantmeal of 48.5 degrees represents the coldest early autumn season temperature in my 21 years of weather records in the Township. The previous record was the 48.1 on September 6, 2013. The lowest temperature I could find across the County this morning was the 42.8 at Warwick Twp.

Below normal temps will slowly warm back to near normal by Thursday before rain chances increase toward the weekend and we again fall back to below normal by the end of next weekend.

Chester County records for today: High temperature 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 41 degrees also at Phoenixville (1916) / Rain 3.72" at West Chester MADIS (2012)

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

This morning's low here in East Nantmeal of 48.5 degrees represents the coldest early autumn season temperature in my 21 years of weather records in the Township. The previous record was the 48.1 on September 6, 2013. The lowest temperature I could find across the County this morning was the 42.8 at Warwick Twp.

Below normal temps will slowly warm back to near normal by Thursday before rain chances increase toward the weekend and we again fall back to below normal by the end of next weekend.

Chester County records for today: High temperature 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 41 degrees also at Phoenixville (1916) / Rain 3.72" at West Chester MADIS (2012)

2013-14 was the start of back 2 back brutal winters.  Maybe a slight hint of what’s to come?

[Andie]

79, overcast.

Light rain this morning and tomorrow.  Nice change.  

[Madtown]

I like it!

[jaster220]

On 9/1/2024 at 9:17 AM, Tom said:

Lions and Bear's are playing their opening games at home next SUN and it looks a bit chilly for Tailgating....how about some 40's/50's to start off the day???  Nice autumn weather to put everyone if the Autumn mood.  I see the 0z Euro took a bite off the GFS for next weekend.

While you guys out east CHILL out...I'm gonna BAKE for a few days next week.  I knew we had one more Heat wave to deal with but the pattern will shift mid and late SEP down here.  Boy, daytime highs in the 90's will feel dramatically different.  Until you lived out in the desert SW, you can't comprehend what a difference just 10 degrees feels like..not to mention, I lived through the Hottest Summer on Record for Phoenix.  Check that off the Bucket List!

 

Chill?? 33F yesterday morning at the airport in Grayling. Then I read APX headlines saying the real autumn-like weather hits this weekend, lol. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was another very nice early fall day with a H/L of 76/49 at GR. There was no rain and 100% sunshine. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 94 was set in 1898 and 1925 the coldest high of 60 was set in 1918. The record low of 38 was set in 1974 the warmest low of 73 was set in 1971. The most rainfall of 2.82” fell in 2008.

Today looks like another very nice day. But the weekend looks to be cloudy, cool with showers. The overnight low and current temperature so far here in MBY is 50.

[chescowxman]

Another cool start to the morning with most spots across the county well down into the 40's again for overnight lows. Our great weather continues with temps staying in the 70's for highs for the remainder of the work week. Our next chance of rain comes Saturday night before clearing and turning a bit cooler again by Sunday.

Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 43 degrees at West Chester (1946) / Rain 3.48" at Phoenixville (1935)

[Tom]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Chill?? 33F yesterday morning at the airport in Grayling. Then I read APX headlines saying the real autumn-like weather hits this weekend, lol. 

The more I'm looking into model data, natures clues, etc...you guys up north are looking much better than the previous couple years...

[Hoosier]

Seeing signs of a warm stretch on the models/ensembles after the 10th or so.

[Niko]

This upcoming 2024-2025 winter is lookin fabulous!!! and all depends where you live, of course. Heads up @Clinton, @westMJim, @jaster220 @james1976 and probably other members on this forum that are in the path of this beautiful expected storm track this upcoming winter season. Mentions that there could be a memorable snowstorm in the Great Lakes area w/ tons of snowstorms. The best part of the vid comes at 10:33 ......ohhh boy!

Here is a vid:

 

[Black Hole]

Pleasant weather for another week (for this time of year!), but I also see a warmup coming by mid month. Perhaps some additional 90s and humidity, but its getting late enough it'll be muted compared to peak summer. 

[Iceresistance]

17 hours ago, Madtown said:

I like it!

Too early to do winter predictions right now

[james1976]

A taste of fall coming Friday & Saturday with 60s/40s but right back to the 80s all next week.

Local met in the TC is forecasting a warm fall. We shall see.

[CentralNebWeather]

You can really tell that the amount of daylight is quickly lessening. We are losing 2.5 minutes a day and about 18 minutes of sunlight every week. 

[Clinton]

Happy NFL kickoff day!  It will be a warm one tonight in KC for the Chiefs and Ravens, with temps at kickoff in the upper 80s.  Moderate drought is building into western Missouri and many other areas on the plains with no rain insight.

[westMJim]

It was yet another nice sunny early fall days yesterday with the official H/L of 80/51 there was no rainfall, and the sun was out 93% of the time. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 92 was in 1922 and 1954 the coldest high of 60 was in 1988 and 1975. The record low of 39 was set in 1950 and 1977 the warmest low of 71 was set in 2023, 1985 and 1912. The most rainfall of 2.37” fell in 1917.

The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 55. There is major but brief cool down coming this weekend before a big warm up again next week.

[jaster220]

On 9/2/2024 at 10:00 AM, Tom said:

Big changes per the 0z EPS as it really is blocking up that GL's trough and slowly moves east into Ontario.  This is a great example of the LRC as it happened, if i remember correctly, in the earlier cycles. I recall vividly back in OCT/NOV of last year how these troughs got blocked up and spun for almost like a week straight. 

As a result, it is cooling things off for longer duration starting next weekend...GFS for the win???  ICON is starting to sniff out a same scenario...Hello Blocky Blocky...

Check out this animation below...right around 18z (1:00pm CST Tuesday), look way up north near the Arctic Circle and find the 543mb trough...it's tracking due S/SE and eventually into the GL's!  Pretty amazing to see this pattern cycle in late Summer.

 

Some places in the UP may not get out of the 40s tomorrow. Is this a Sept version of a PV visit? Sure looks that way, lol. Now, wrt the LRC, we actually had this same early chill last year the week of Labor Day when I visited my cousin's cottage in NEMI and we had to switch on the little cabin furnace to stay comfortable. May mean nothing for the upcoming winter and new LRC.  

We already had one day back in early August that only got to 63F under rainy skies. Tomorrow may be even chillier. 

[westMJim]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

we actually had this same early chill last year the week of Labor Day when I visited my cousin's cottage in NEMI and we had to switch on the little cabin furnace to stay comfortable. May mean nothing for the upcoming winter

That is so true. One can not guess what the next season will bring based on a few days anytime of the year. The only thing that can be said is that we are going to have a cool weekend.