September 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

49 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Some places in the UP may not get out of the 40s tomorrow. Is this a Sept version of a PV visit? Sure looks that way, lol. Now, wrt the LRC, we actually had this same early chill last year the week of Labor Day when I visited my cousin's cottage in NEMI and we had to switch on the little cabin furnace to stay comfortable. May mean nothing for the upcoming winter and new LRC.  

We already had one day back in early August that only got to 63F under rainy skies. Tomorrow may be even chillier. 

Ya, It actually is...check out my notes from last years pattern from late OCT into NOV...especially around Halloween!  Incredible.  I felt in my gut that this pattern was cycling exactly how I've been describing it since a few days ago originating from the Arctic Circle.  I didn't even check my notes until just his morning bc you actually sparked me to do so.  We have had a 46.5 day cycle and we are on the last cycle until after the sun sets up in the Arctic and the pattern in the mid lat's begins to change slowly in early OCT.

[Tom]

The signs are becoming more clear that the E PAC tropical season will be getting underway for my region...details are sketchy at the moment but cooler temps are going to be SOOO welcomed!

@Clinton KC Crew...Football season is always a fun time of year and a part of our culture it seems...enjoy the home opener!

[chescowxman]

Our stretch of below normal temperatures will continue for at least the next 5 days before we warm back to near or a little above by the middle of next week. Rain chances ramp up by Saturday late day.

Chester County records for today: High Temperature 95 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1898) / Low 41 degrees at Westtown (1896) / Rain 4.53" at Glenmoore (1979)

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, It actually is...check out my notes from last years pattern from late OCT into NOV...especially around Halloween!  Incredible.  I felt in my gut that this pattern was cycling exactly how I've been describing it since a few days ago originating from the Arctic Circle.  I didn't even check my notes until just his morning bc you actually sparked me to do so.  We have had a 46.5 day cycle and we are on the last cycle until after the sun sets up in the Arctic and the pattern in the mid lat's begins to change slowly in early OCT.

That thundersnow on Halloween was certainly memorable.  I doubt I'll ever experience that again right on Halloween.  

[Tom]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That thundersnow on Halloween was certainly memorable.  I doubt I'll ever experience that again right on Halloween.  

Would be cool to track some real deal cold combined with some potent clippers that can take an ideal track to see some legit synoptic/Lehs snow this season!

[tStacsh]

After a slightly cool weekend, looks like the HEAT is on for the middle of September.   

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

After a slightly cool weekend, looks like the HEAT is on for the middle of September.   

Yeah, solid indications for that.  Also doesn't look like many chances for rain, so drought conditions may be on the rise.  Parts of Ohio are already doing badly.

[jaster220]

AC blasting today (82F). Heat on by Saturday morning?? 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

After a slightly cool weekend, looks like the HEAT is on for the middle of September.   

You LES Hounds should be glad - got to keep that source water to your west as warm as possible, as long into autumn as possible. 

[Minny_Weather]

Wouldn't be a transition to met fall in the 21st century without a robust western ridge preventing fall from actually getting here.

[Tom]

Thinking of Autumn…PHX torched to a record 116F today and coincidentally, Fountain Hills where I live it’s 116F right now.  I have direct sun and my patio thermo is off the charts 120F+…Think Snow ️ folks!

 

[Andie]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

AC blasting today (82F). Heat on by Saturday morning?? 

Welcome to “Texas”!

[westMJim]

It was a warm early fall day yesterday with a H/L of 86/55. There was 0.26” of rainfall the sun was out 73% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 77/57 the record high of 97 was set in 1954 the coldest high of 62 was set in 1944 the record low of 36 was set in 1962 the warmest low of 73 was set in 1922 and 1893. The record rainfall of 1.67” fell in 1985.

The overnight low so far and the current temperature is 55. At this time the sky is clear with that 55.

[Clinton]

I got .40 inches of rain this morning as a thunderstorm rolled through.  Great temps this weekend with highs in the 70s and some lows in the upper 40s.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I got .40 inches of rain this morning as a thunderstorm rolled through.  Great temps this weekend with highs in the 70s and some lows in the upper 40s.

Fishing should be good this weekend...Good luck bud!  I am happy to say, that our state Apache Trout is no longer endangered...

https://azmirror.com/2024/09/05/apache-trout-no-longer-threatened-thanks-to-work-of-tribe-partners/#:~:text=After more than five decades,be delisted due to recovery.

[tStacsh]

14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

You LES Hounds should be glad - got to keep that source water to your west as warm as possible, as long into autumn as possible. 

I think I used my snowblower like 3 or 4 times last year, would like to see that number increase this year.  The lakes were quite warm last year, so hopefully we get more clippers this time.     I don't want that November tease and then a mild winter.   

[Black Hole]

Models showing upper 70s Saturday with dew points in the upper 30s and sunny. Fall perfection! Potential to see our first sub 50F low by Sunday morning too. 

[Tom]

17 hours ago, tStacsh said:

After a slightly cool weekend, looks like the HEAT is on for the middle of September.   

I'll blow some of my Heat your way...it wouldn't be a typical "yo-yo" autumn pattern without a mid-month Heat wave!   It prob will be slightly warmer thereafter but there are pretty good signals the blocking showing up across C & E Canada should mitigate any substantial length of this late season Heat up your way.  I think that calls for some Top Notch SEP wx...I wonder if some Frost Advisories will be issued up north??   Oh my gosh, I just looked at the NWS alert maps and wouldn't ya know...Indian Summer weather post Frost???  Not sure if this will justify as a Killing Frost for a True period of Indian Summer weather but I'm sure the warmth will feel pretty good.

 

 

I just lived through the latest 116F ever in SEP for PHX....check that off the bucket list!!!

 

 

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, solid indications for that.  Also doesn't look like many chances for rain, so drought conditions may be on the rise.  Parts of Ohio are already doing badly.

I'd imagine that's a good thing for farmers to harvest?  I see from the map below it starts earlier in the month on avg the farther south in latitude you are... @Clinton are they harvesting in your area?  @Black HoleHow about down by you??

Maybe this weekend lots of farmers will get out and do some work.

 

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'd imagine that's a good thing for farmers to harvest?  I see from the map below it starts earlier in the month on avg the farther south in latitude you are... @Clinton are they harvesting in your area?  @Black HoleHow about down by you??

Maybe this weekend lots of farmers will get out and do some work.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not exactly sure for me, but I know the corn I put in my garden was ready to harvest during August and is long gone now. I'd imagine that's the case for the farmers down this way too. With how long our growing season is and how early it starts it seems like most corn would be done by now unless it was intentionally planted late. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'll blow some of my Heat your way...it wouldn't be a typical "yo-yo" autumn pattern without a mid-month Heat wave!   It prob will be slightly warmer thereafter but there are pretty good signals the blocking showing up across C & E Canada should mitigate any substantial length of this late season Heat up your way.  I think that calls for some Top Notch SEP wx...I wonder if some Frost Advisories will be issued up north??   Oh my gosh, I just looked at the NWS alert maps and wouldn't ya know...Indian Summer weather post Frost???  Not sure if this will justify as a Killing Frost for a True period of Indian Summer weather but I'm sure the warmth will feel pretty good.

 

 

I just lived through the latest 116F ever in SEP for PHX....check that off the bucket list!!!

 

 

I'd imagine that's a good thing for farmers to harvest?  I see from the map below it starts earlier in the month on avg the farther south in latitude you are... @Clinton are they harvesting in your area?  @Black HoleHow about down by you??

Maybe this weekend lots of farmers will get out and do some work.

 

 

 

 

Some are just now getting started with corn. Beans need another 30 to 45 days.

[Tom]

As the official start of Autumn approaches, a look ahead at the 500mb pattern looks interesting at this range.  The EPS has been suggesting a stout -NAO and somewhat of a west coast ridge that'll allow some cooler weather to invade our Sub.  I'm also fascinated at how quickly the seasons change up north over the higher lat's before eventually making its way down in the mid lat's.

[westMJim]

While it has been rather calm Hurricane season so far, with the Hurricane season now underway it is a good time to look at the Hurricane Saffir- Simpson scale.

History
The scale was developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson, who at the time was director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The scale was introduced to the general public in 1973, and saw widespread use after Neil Frank replaced Simpson at the helm of the NHC in 1974.
The initial scale was developed by Herbert Saffir, who in 1969 went on commission for the United Nations to study low-cost housing in hurricane-prone areas. While conducting the study, Saffir realized there was no simple scale for describing the likely effects of a hurricane. Mirroring the utility of the Richter Magnitude Scale for describing earthquakes, he devised a 1–5 scale based on wind speed that showed expected damage to structures. Saffir gave the scale to the NHC, and Simpson added the effects of storm surge and flooding. The five categories are described in the following subsections, in order of increasing intensity but before and after a storm becomes a hurricane there are 1. A tropical depression winds under 38 MPH (note we get storms like that many times in Michigan in the late fall) 2. Tropical storm winds of 39 to 73 MPH. Some of our fall storms can reach winds of this force as well. And in summer thunderstorms there can be winds of more then 75 MPH even here in Michigan.
Category 1
Category 1 winds of 74 to 95 MPH. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days
Category 2
Category 2 winds of 96 to 110 MPH Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks
Category 3
Category 3 winds of 111 to 129 MPH are described as major hurricanes. Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Category 4 Winds of 130 to 156. Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5
Category 5 winds of 157 and higher. A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

It is nice to know that we do not have to deal with Hurricanes here in Michigan for the most part. There have been some storms that have brought rain and even some wind this far north but it is not real common.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was our first taste of fall here in Grand Rapids with the official H/L of 67/52. That 67 was the coldest high since May 27th and was only the 2nd time the high did not reach 70 or better since May 14th There was a trace of rainfall yesterday the sun was out 26% of the time. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 96 was set in 1960 the coldest high of 55 was set in 1917 the record low of 38 was set in 1986 the warmest low of 74 was set in 1985 and 1939. The most rainfall of 1.64” fell in 1983.

The overnight low so far here in MBY has been 45.

[Tom]

A Special Marine Warning issued for NW IN boaters/anglers...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Nearshore Waters from Burns Harbor to Michigan City...
  Open Waters from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City out to Mid
Lake...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 650 AM CDT, showers producing waterspouts were located along a
  line extending from 21 nm northeast of Harrison-Dever Crib to 13
  nm north of Burns Harbor to near Michigan City, moving south at 20
  knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
           higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

 

Awesome illustration of the cycling pattern and how it is delivering a stout lake effect rain plume!  Would be awesome to see some photo's of the potential water spouts.

[hawkstwelve]

Brrrrr. Dropped down to a low of 42 this morning. Definitely has that autumn crisp to the air!

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

A Special Marine Warning issued for NW IN boaters/anglers...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Nearshore Waters from Burns Harbor to Michigan City...
  Open Waters from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City out to Mid
Lake...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 650 AM CDT, showers producing waterspouts were located along a
  line extending from 21 nm northeast of Harrison-Dever Crib to 13
  nm north of Burns Harbor to near Michigan City, moving south at 20
  knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
           higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

 

Awesome illustration of the cycling pattern and how it is delivering a stout lake effect rain plume!  Would be awesome to see some photo's of the potential water spouts.

At least one of those waterspouts came onshore at the Dunes.  Fairly unusual occurrence. 

I received some lake effect rain last night.

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At least one of those waterspouts came onshore at the Dunes.  Fairly unusual occurrence. 

I received some lake effect rain last night.

My sister drove into it this morning while driving to a clients house.  She said it was blue skies and suddenly bam!

[CentralNebWeather]

49 degrees this morning before the clouds rolled in. Nice chill last night for high school football, jackets and sweatshirts were common. Leaves are beginning to change. Rather early compared to recent years around here   

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

My sister drove into it this morning while driving to a clients house.  She said it was blue skies and suddenly bam!

Here's the video of the waterspout (hopefully this works). 

lol at that bird

https://m.facebook.com/reel/555097860184520/?referral_source=external_deeplink

[StormchaserChuck1]

I hit the 40s a few nights this week in Maryland. Fall's, though have been warm here for the last decade. I expect Sept-Oct to warm up. 

[Black Hole]

Still on track for a few more nice days then a big warm up centered mid month. With that said, I can already see some early inklings of another sizeable cool shot for the last third of the month. Time will tell, but if the last few months have been any clue models will catch onto it over the next week or so. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

I'm already at 55F. Will get down into the 40s again! Forecast for tomm night is even colder. 

[Clinton]

Gorgeous and dry weather continues here today and tomorrow before a warm-up midweek.  GFS is hinting at a cooler and wetter pattern in the long range.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a cool early fall day with a H/L of 63/46 there was no rainfall the sun was out 62 % of the time. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set in 1897,1922 and 1960. The coldest high of 58 was set in 1924 the record low of 36 was set in 1954 and the warmest low of 74 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 2.27” was in 1989.

The overnight low at GRR was a cool 41 that is the coldest low since May 12th it is also the 4th coldest low for any September 8th and the coldest low since 1979. As is often the case we now look to really warm up for much of the upcoming week.

[Tom]

45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Gorgeous and dry weather continues here today and tomorrow before a warm-up midweek.  GFS is hinting at a cooler and wetter pattern in the long range.

 

That's what I've been looking at in the LR around the Autumnal Equinox...now the Euro AI is coming into some agreement for a nice trough across the Heartland of the US.

More importantly, the pattern is FINALLY coming together out here in the SW towards a much COOLER one by next weekend and into the following week!  Man, highs in the mid/upper 90's and some rain are going to feel pretty dang nice guys. Time to flip the coin into some hints of Autumn I guess...

[Tom]

Hmm, the 0z Euro brings the remnants of our next tropical system into the GL's and at the same time I'm going to possibly get some tropical downpours as well??  Double Whammy!  Sign me up...

 

[Hawkeye]

Davenport dropped to 38º this morning.  We reached the low 40s.

[jaster220]

On 9/5/2024 at 6:00 PM, jaster220 said:

AC blasting today (82F). Heat on by Saturday morning?? 

Missed it by a day. Saw 37F outside temp on the thermostat overnight and woke up to a cold feel in the house for the first time in months. Decided to pop the Heat on to take the chill off (it's all relative since our main floor runs mid & upr 70's all summer even overnight). Been sick this week with a touch of something and my wife too so not too tolerant of this timing, lol. Back to gorgeous weather stretch now. Not officially Indian Summer, that'll be later. Extended summer tho in the 70's & 80's with low sun angle is welcomed any time. The mornings in the low-mid 30's last week have the sugar maples ablaze in splashes of scarlet reds and deep oranges near Higgins Lk. Got my first color tour commuting home from work Saturday mid-day. Unfortunately, taking photos on my phone from a fast-moving car wouldn't do it justice so not even trying (yet). 

[Tom]

@Clinton, how about this 12z GFS SW Flow???  It's still remarkably a similar pattern to what we experienced last Autumn.  The 0z Euro showed a pretty stout trough diving south in the AZ/UT region Day 9/10...nearly identical to this 12z GFS animation.  Wild stuff.  I see that the pattern is sorta mixed bc of the remnants of Francine getting cutoff in the south.  Let's see how SEP turns out as we head into the middle/end of SEP.

[Clinton]

55 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, how about this 12z GFS SW Flow???  It's still remarkably a similar pattern to what we experienced last Autumn.  The 0z Euro showed a pretty stout trough diving south in the AZ/UT region Day 9/10...nearly identical to this 12z GFS animation.  Wild stuff.  I see that the pattern is sorta mixed bc of the remnants of Francine getting cutoff in the south.  Let's see how SEP turns out as we head into the middle/end of SEP.

I hope it turns wetter, I love thus time of year watching a new pattern start to get established.