September 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Black Hole]

For fun, one lonely EPS member shows a dusting of snow near the end of October. That's probably about climo for here (1% chance) but still fun to see in a silly sort of way.

[westMJim]

The week before Labor Day we were up in Sault Ste Marie on the Ontario side. One of the days we were there the temperature was 86. That is very warm for the Sault. So, I was wondering just how often it gets hot up in the Sault area. Well for the most part not that often.  The current 30-year average of 90° or better days at Sault Ste Marie Michigan is 1 a year and that is the number of 90° this year. Many years they do not have any.  But in 1921 The Sault area had it greatest heat wave. One that even us in SW Michigan have not had a many years.

The average H/L in July at Sault Ste Mare is 76/54. In 1921 starting on June 26 and running to July 13 the Sault had 12 days with highs of 90 or better one day at 79 and one day at 87. There were two nights with lows of 70 or better. This heat wave had 8 days in a row of 90 or better with one day at 98 four days of 94 two days two days at 92 and one day at 91. After a brief two-day cool down when highs were 87 and 79 there were four more days with highs of 90,93,92 and 92 again.  Overnight lows were mostly in the upper 60’s  with two nights with lows of 70 and 71. The last time Grand Rapids had a similar heat wave was in 2020 when GR had 8 days in a row of 90 or better in July.

It is getting rather dry in much of the central part of the nation. Here in MBY the grass is turning brown. I watered the grass yesterday that is something I usually don’t do in September. The official H/L yesterday was 86/57 there was once again no rainfall the sun was out 75% of the time. For today the average H/L is 75/54 the record high of 95 was set in 1939 the coldest high of 54 was set in 1996 and 1970. The record low was a frosty 31 in 1899 and the warmest low of 73 was set in 1939. The most rainfall of 2.15” fell in 1993.

[james1976]

Pretty impressive that hurricane Francine remnants have made it all the way up to the TC metro. Only some scattered showers but it is humid.

[Andie]

Low- Mid 90’s till next weekend.  No rain.  
I could phone this in.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

9 hours ago, james1976 said:

Pretty impressive that hurricane Francine remnants have made it all the way up to the TC metro. Only some scattered showers but it is humid.

Meanwhile way down here in se iowa we got 3 drops off it. Unmeasurable.

[Clinton]

10 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Meanwhile way down here in se iowa we got 3 drops off it. Unmeasurable.

No rain here either.  It's so dry trees are dropping leaves, it's been awhile since I've had vibrant fall colors and it's looking bleak this year also.

[chescowxman]

Another couple of nice late summer days but a bit cooler tomorrow... before we see clouds and shower possibilities increasing from Tuesday through the end of the work week. There is a wide range of model rainfall amounts across the area....hoping some of the more generous models become reality this week.

Chester County Records for today: High 95 degrees at Phoenixville (1927) / Low 34 degrees at Phoenixville (1985) / Rain 3.10" at West Grove (1966)

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No rain here either.  It's so dry trees are dropping leaves, it's been awhile since I've had vibrant fall colors and it's looking bleak this year also.

Looks like its going to pick up later this weekend as a pretty large Autumn storm takes shape over the central CONUS right around the Autumnal Equinox.  BTW, I'm starting to see a new pattern that looks WAY different up north and bodes well for an active/cool Eastern CONUS as we open up OCT.  The Bearing Sea Rule (BSR) and other LR tools are suggesting an amplified N.A. 500mb pattern.  Pretty neat changes are certainly going to start showing up here rather quickly, especially up in Canada.

 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like its going to pick up later this weekend as a pretty large Autumn storm takes shape over the central CONUS right around the Autumnal Equinox.  BTW, I'm starting to see a new pattern that looks WAY different up north and bodes well for an active/cool Eastern CONUS as we open up OCT.  The Bearing Sea Rule (BSR) and other LR tools are suggesting an amplified N.A. 500mb pattern.  Pretty neat changes are certainly going to start showing up here rather quickly, especially up in Canada.

 

What is that rule?

[Black Hole]

Here is a look at the upcoming pattern on the GFS. Some potential for precipitation over the weekend as an upper level disturbance approaches but models are inconsistent on the placement, timing, and strength of this feature. Better ensemble support further out for some kind of a trough to dig in later in the month. GFS shows a good blast of cool northerly air for most of us with that. Then we will see but it keeps the general pattern in place through the end of the run. 

[james1976]

14 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Meanwhile way down here in se iowa we got 3 drops off it. Unmeasurable.

Yeah we had a quick shower but that was it. Wasn't even measurable. 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

What is that rule?

The Bearing Sea Rule is a Long Range Forecasting method used to predict weather patterns/storm tracks in the 17-21 day period.  For reference, you can use this case study by NOAA (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW40/renken_bsr.pdf).

 

 

[Andie]

94*. Sunny

We’ll be in the mid 90’s for highs until next week when we get a break into the 80’s next Sunday. 
Possibility of rain is bleak so far. 
Very dry. 
 

Edit:   Anyone know a rain dance?  Might work. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

The Bearing Sea Rule is a Long Range Forecasting method used to predict weather patterns/storm tracks in the 17-21 day period.  For reference, you can use this case study by NOAA (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW40/renken_bsr.pdf).

 

 

That one map seems to be alluding to the "East Asian Rule". Did some of that get mixed in by chance?

[Tom]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That one map seems to be alluding to the "East Asian Rule". Did some of that get mixed in by chance?

They referred to both the Typhoon Rule and BSR…

[james1976]

Local met has potential heavy rain fri-sat and then highs in the 60s for next Sunday. Until then it's full on summer with mid 80s and sun.

[chescowxman]

Several of the lower spots in Chesco dropped into the 40's overnight with the lowest being the 46.1 at Warwick Township higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than 53.6.

We should not see overnight lows that cool again until next weekend as we have an increasingly cloudy more humid and possibly wet week on tap starting tomorrow night. Rainfall still does not look that impressive unless you head south and east of Philly but we can hope.

Chester County daily records for today: High 96 degrees at Phoenixville (1942) / Low 36 degrees at West Chester 2NW (1983) / Rain 7.85" at Coatesville 2W (1999) this was associated with the rains from Hurricane Floyd the 2 day total was 8.31" at Coatesville but over in Thorndale (where I lived at that time) we picked up a 2 day total of 8.61" of rain.

[Tom]

The PHX valley got skunked yesterday as the system from the Baja tracked a little farther east than what the models were showing a couple days ago.  I was up in Sedona till Sat am and was excited to see some rain but when I got home and checked the forecast I got a bit sad.  Kinda like being under a WSW and then suddenly waking up in the morning to see it has been cancelled!  Haha, tis is true...it's a cool experience to have tropical moisture come up this way as the downpours are pretty extreme.

It's not all sad news, however, because we are still going to see much cooler temps this week with highs in the low 90's and overnight lows in the 60's???  Yes!  It's going to be a fantastic week for the valley and I'm sure everyone will enjoy the cooler temps.  Happy Monday!

[tStacsh]

Pattern reminds me of May/June 2023.   Hot, dry no rain in sight for a total of at least two weeks and some smokey skies, though not as bad. 

 Our last drop which wasn't much was I believe 10 days ago with that quick cool shot.   Looks like at least another 7 straight days with no rain.  We've had very dry Septembers  before and it  is our driest month so it has happened before.   

 

 

[Clinton]

6z GFS looks wet here over the weekend.   Hopefully the block can slide east far enough to get some rain into mby.

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS looks wet here over the weekend.   Hopefully the block can slide east far enough to get some rain into mby.

Same, its getting pretty crusty out there and we need it. 

[Madtown]

Morr summery now than it was all summer...way tooo hot!

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, Madtown said:

Morr summery now than it was all summer...way tooo hot!

At least the sun angle is lower now and the airmass has had a rather dry feel overall.

[Bryan1117]

5 hours ago, Madtown said:

Morr summery now than it was all summer...way tooo hot!

Yeah I am ready for more Fall-like weather… this prolonged warm and dry spell needs to go! Looks like some changes are coming this weekend here in Eastern Nebraska, hopefully. Might even have some storms around to impact the Nebraska vs Illinois game on Friday night. 

[Tom]

Late yesterday afternoon, the higher moisture content and lift produced a few pop up showers that quickly raced overhead and dropped some rain but only about .10" or so...enough to bring out that nice sweet smell of the Sonoran Desert.  It's one of the coolest mornings since late May as we have dipped to 70F!  We will dip even cooler into the low 60's by Wed/Thu morning....ahhh, so nice! 

Sky Harbor will officially hit a Double Digit high temp today in the low 90's and ending the streak of 100F+ (113 days in a row) daytime highs at PHX.  Pretty remarkable.

 

 

[westMJim]

We are now at the halfway point in September 2024 and at Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 65.7 that is a departure of -0.6 That will change in the next week the high so far this month is 88 on the 15th and the low so far is 41 on the 8th there has only been 0.26” of rainfall that is a departure of -1.86”

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 88/58 there now have been 6 days in a row of 80 or better. There was no rainfall the sun was out 95% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 74/53 the record high of 89 was set in 1906 and 1955 the coldest high of 55 was set in 1993. The record low of 32 was set in 1902 and the warmest low of 70 was set in 1907. The most rainfall of 2.26” fell in 1981.

[Tom]

It's right on schedule and seems like every SEP we are tracking an Autumnal Equinox system..this one resembles a CO LOW ejecting out into the Plains states this weekend.  I like the pattern setting up for you guys who have dried out in the Plains/MW/GL's region...its about to get busy!  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 88/56 that 88 was the 2nd hottest high for any September 16th at GR. There was once again no rainfall. The sun was out 99% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 74/53 the record high of 92 was set in 1906 the coldest high was a cool 47 set in 1947 and the record low of 37 was set in 1902 and 1959 the record warmest low of 69 was set in 1942. The most rainfall of 2.29” fell in 1997.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's right on schedule and seems like every SEP we are tracking an Autumnal Equinox system..this one resembles a CO LOW ejecting out into the Plains states this weekend.  I like the pattern setting up for you guys who have dried out in the Plains/MW/GL's region...its about to get busy!  

The start of the 2nd severe weather season.  It would be nice to have an active one it's been awhile.

[chescowxman]

Clouds should rule the sky through Thursday with small rain chances the further north and west you are from the Delaware Valley.....so for most of Chester County not much more than 0.10" or so of rain if that much! It will be increasingly muggy but temps will remain in the 70's for highs with nights in the low 60's before we turn cooler again for the weekend. By Sunday the higher spots in the County will struggle to escape the 60's for high temps.

Chester County Daily records for today: All set at Phoenixville High 95 degrees (1942) / Low 32 degrees (1986) this was the earliest recorded freezing temperature in Chester County history. / Rain 5.90" (1999)

[Andie]

Unseasonably warm this week with Highs of 95*

Humidity 55-60%.  
Hoping this is summers last hurrah and the heat begins to abate.  
Not expecting 80’s till end of month. That’s just Texas in the early Fall.  (Could use some rain, however,…)

[Black Hole]

GEFS signal for troughing growing towards the end of the month. You can see the +PNA and ridge south of Greenland would force the cooler air into the Plains. 

[chescowxman]

There has been some light showers and drizzle across most spots in Chester County this morning. Here in East Nantmeal we have picked up a scant 0.04" of liquid gold - we are over 2.50" below normal so far here in September....but still running on a surplus of over 3 inches for the year to date. Shower chances will continue till tomorrow before we clear out and cool down over the weekend. By the end of the weekend and start of the new work week temps will struggle to escape the 60's in higher spots with lows well down into the 50's with even some 40's again in the lower elevations across the area.

Chester County records for today: All records at Phoenixville" High 96 degrees (1942) / Low 33 degrees (1986) / Rain 5.07" (2004)

[Tom]

Happy Harvest SuperMoon!  The moon this morning lit up the night skies as I went out on my patio deck just before 5:00am.  I opened up my windows and patio deck for the first time since late May!  It's like a holiday today as we have dipped to a low of 64F so far this morning...I see daylight emerging slowly to me east as the orange/yellow glow of the suns rays are refracting off the horizon.

[Niko]

This dry stretch of weather looks to continue w/ everyday sunny skies. I feel like I am in Greece. No rain in sight. Francine will not help much, other than a few passing clouds are possible today from her. Sprinklers are running full time, but will winterize them by October. Cooler weather does look to be appearing down the road w/ highs by months end in the 60s and lows in the 40s and even a couple of 50s in warmer locations.

[Niko]

Foliage might be delayed this year due to very warm temperatures and mild evenings. Some nights are coolish, but not chilly enough to allow for leaf colors. Up north probably has very little foliage, if any as well.

[Clinton]

You have to go back to 1893 to find a dryer first 17 days of September than this year.  Hopefully some rain will fall this weekend. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Foliage might be delayed this year due to very warm temperatures and mild evenings. Some nights are coolish, but not chilly enough to allow for leaf colors. Up north probably has very little foliage, if any as well.

I'm more concerned about the dry pattern. Yes, temps lately haven't been the most ideal but the trees still have the immutable seasonal signal of less and less daylight each day.  Gotta get rains soon or else the quality of the fall colors will be impacted by the drought/developing drought conditions.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm more concerned about the dry pattern. Yes, temps lately haven't been the most ideal but the trees still have the immutable seasonal signal of less and less daylight each day.  Gotta get rains soon or else the quality of the fall colors will be impacted by the drought/developing drought conditions.

I was reading an article the other days about the yin and yang relationship between precip patterns over the Shara Desert region of Africa and the Central part of North America.  They know that the Sahara region is savannah about half of the time in past history and desert the other half.  They have discovered the wetter periods in Africa coincide with periods where the central part of North America becomes almost full blown desert.  This year has had extremely wet conditions over a good part of the Sahara Desert so this really lends some support to the theory.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was reading an article the other days about the yin and yang relationship between precip patterns over the Shara Desert region of Africa and the Central part of North America.  They know that the Sahara region is savannah about half of the time in past history and desert the other half.  They have discovered the wetter periods in Africa coincide with periods where the central part of North America becomes almost full blown desert.  This year has had extremely wet conditions over a good part of the Sahara Desert so this really lends some support to the theory.

Interesting.  Do you have the link?