September 2024 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

GFS shows a soggy Sunday for Iowa and others.

 

[Hoosier]

Tomorrow's drought monitor update should be interesting.  Would expect an overall expansion of the categories compared to last week.  Not being in the middle of summer anymore helps things to not deteriorate even faster, but only by a little bit.  

Have seen some speculation elsewhere about what these dry/drought conditions may mean for winter, assuming it persists through the fall.  I think the answer is not much.  It's hard to read anything into it at this point.  The feedback processes at play (the drought begets drought that we've all heard before) are much stronger in the warmer months, and the seasonal shift into fall/winter tends to make it easier to get stronger synoptic systems with more widespread precip.  Not always of course, as we've seen dry patterns in winter too.  Bottom line is that I wouldn't be too concerned about this meaning anything for precip tendencies in winter.  Things could easily reverse... but perhaps not.  

[Andie]

Next 2 days - 97 very sunny days.  
My water damaged hardwood flooring comes up tomorrow and I have the adult beverage at the ready!   

Makes me ill to think of it but new material is waterproof and I’ll be robbing Peter to pay Paul shortly thereafter.  Hubby is determined to be there for last rites.  Wish me luck! I loved the floor

[Clinton]

There's a slight risk of severe weather here this evening with some scattered thunderstorms.  Models don't show much it will be interesting to see if that changes during the day.

 

[Hawkeye]

16 hours ago, bud2380 said:

GFS shows a soggy Sunday for Iowa and others.

 

I wouldn't put any money on this.  The latest 06z GFS took almost all of the rain away from Iowa.  Models are hinting that the strong low to the north will sweep everything to our south and keep it there.  The AI Euro has been south for days.  This desert-like weather pattern sucks.

[Andie]

D Day ( destruct).  
Beautiful weather. Pretty warm 95 for high. Cool comes in by weekend!  
Having my last coffee on patio for about 2 weeks.  Beautiful golden sunrise. 75* at 7:15am

 

Thought I would add last several days at sunrise many hundreds of noisy (large) birds have taken off from the lake about 1/4 mi away.  They're hauling it SW of Ft Worth.  Likely water birds of some kind. Can’t ID in the dim light. Cooler weather will be next. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another summer-like day. The official H/L was 83/53 there was no rainfall GR is now -1.71” for the month. The sun was out 98% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1908 the coldest high of 54 was set in 1991. The record low of 36 was set in 1929,1979 and 2020.  I have some pictures of frost for 2020. The warmest low of 68 was set in 1965. The most rainfall of 1.73” was in 1988

[chescowxman]

Today some spots may see there last chance for an 80 degree high until next Spring. Our last 80 degree reading last year was on September 9th. We should see a steady cool down starting tomorrow with highs by Monday no higher than the 70 degree mark. Unfortunately our next rain chance looks to wait till the middle of next week at the earliest.

Chester County records for today: HIgh 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1983) / Low 32 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Rain 3.27" at Coatesville 1SW (1894)

[Andie]

DFW’s Change.  Oh boy!

[Hoosier]

77% of the Midwest is now in D0 or worse conditions.

[Andie]

Caught this in a news article. 
Nothing really new, just verification. 

“NOAA predicts a 71% chance of La Niña emerging between September and November, with the cooling trend potentially persisting through January-March 2025. While a moderate to strong La Niña is less likely during the fall and winter, there's still a possibility.

By the February-April 2025 season, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ESNO)-neutral conditions are expected to return.”

[bud2380]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I wouldn't put any money on this.  The latest 06z GFS took almost all of the rain away from Iowa.  Models are hinting that the strong low to the north will sweep everything to our south and keep it there.  The AI Euro has been south for days.  This desert-like weather pattern sucks.

The 12z GFS isn't looking much better, but ironically the 00z and 06z Euro look really good.  So does the 12z Canadian and 00z UK.  So now the GFS went from the wettest to the driest.  6z Euro with a nice soaking and it's still raining here where the model ends.  

 

 

[bud2380]

GEFS ensemble is also painting a wide swath of rain.  Same with the EPS.  So if we miss out largely on rain this weekend, that will be a real kick in the pants. 

 

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

GEFS ensemble is also painting a wide swath of rain.  Same with the EPS.  So if we miss out largely on rain this weekend, that will be a real kick in the pants. 

 

 

Especially because the pattern looks to get dry again after this.

[bud2380]

NMB looks similar.  Hopefully the GFS is just doing it's usual thing and will correct back to the consensus soon.  

 

 

[Hoosier]

The 0.04" precip at ORD so far this month is the driest start to September since 2009.  That month had 0.03" through the 18th.  

[bud2380]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The 0.04" precip at ORD so far this month is the driest start to September since 2009.  That month had 0.03" through the 18th.  

I was just telling my wife about September 2009 last night.  I believe in eastern Iowa there was something like 43 days without measurable precipitation at the CR airport.  Something like that.  The weather was beautiful, but obviously, we needed some rain too.  Much like this year.  Hard to complain when it's been so nice, but we definitely could use a good soaking.  Hopefully this weekend delivers.  

[bud2380]

Ukie shifted the heaviest band south, but still solid up through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.

 

[bud2380]

12z Euro not bad.

 

[bud2380]

EPS pretty decent too.

 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

EPS pretty decent too.

 

The weekend to early week system took a pretty good jump south on the new EPS.

[CentralNebWeather]

Beautiful forecast. 

[Clinton]

30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Beautiful forecast. 

I'm glad the models are showing some widespread rain and fall like temperatures next week!

[jaster220]

A few days back, Grayling airport recorded a high of 87F, dropping to 39F the next morning! Is this NMI or the desert SW in winter? Peeps at work talking that if you dress for chill in the morning, you roast after noon, and vice-versa. Two days in a row had the exact same 39.6F morning low. I do like the warmth with a low sun angle so there's that at least. Tree colors are struggling to look good with the mini torch-n-parch month we've had going. Some damp and cooler temps will go a long way towards improved leaf watching. 

 

[Black Hole]

.48" at my house this evening from some storms, first in quite a long time and a welcome relief. Storms could occur the next few days, but looking more likely over the weekend. Definitely cooler early next week. Also, loved this 12z CMC from earlier  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 86/58 there was no rainfall the sun was out 79% of the time. There has now been 10 days in a row of 80 or better. For today the average H/L is now down to 72/51 the record high of 90 was set in 1931 the coldest high of 54 was set in 1927 and 1918. The record low of 33 was set in 1956 the warmest low of 69 was set in 1978. The most rainfall of 2.72” fell in 2018.

The 10 days in a row of 80 or better that Grand Rapids has had this September is the longest stretch of days of 80 or better in any September on record. There have been 12 days this month of 80 or better that is the most since 2017 when there were 15 the most in any September is 17 in 1908.

[chescowxman]

Today and tomorrow look like our last above normal temperature days for a while with highs both days well into the 70's at higher spots with low 80's at some of the valley locales. Highs starting Sunday through Thursday will mostly remain in the 60's. Rain chances finally look more likely by later Tuesday through Wednesday.

Chester County Records for today: High 97 degrees at Kennett Square (1895) / Low 32 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 4.40" at West Chester (1989)

[Tom]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

A few days back, Grayling airport recorded a high of 87F, dropping to 39F the next morning! Is this NMI or the desert SW in winter? Peeps at work talking that if you dress for chill in the morning, you roast after noon, and vice-versa. Two days in a row had the exact same 39.6F morning low. I do like the warmth with a low sun angle so there's that at least. Tree colors are struggling to look good with the mini torch-n-parch month we've had going. Some damp and cooler temps will go a long way towards improved leaf watching. 

 

Welcome to my world!  That's quite a large diurnal temp range...nearly 50 degrees!  Incredible to see for your part of the country.  

[Tom]

Tracking the H5 ULL across our beautiful state of Arizona...I remember vividly posting a gif animation of this same pattern way back late last year in the Autumn and also in the Winter.  Temps in the grid are trending cooler for tomorrow and you won't hear me complain.  It'll be a bit breezy and feel kinda cool in the morning on SAT.  It's all good in my book!

 

Where does the CO LOW go from here?  I'm stoked that a lot of you to my east will enjoy some beneficial rains.  Doesn't this system "sorta" get you in the autumn/winter storm tracking mood?  Can we see more of these during the cold winter months?

[Tom]

I got a feeling @OttumwaSnomow is gonna get soaked… @Clinton @MIKEKC and KC crew…frontal boundary scenario at play!

[Clinton]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

I got a feeling @OttumwaSnomow is gonna get soaked… @Clinton @MIKEKC and KC crew…frontal boundary scenario at play!

Sure could use it.  GFS and Euro show a good soaker!

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Sure could use it.  GFS and Euro show a good soaker!

Reel it in…

[Hoosier]

I just heard this sound outside and I'm trying to figure out what it is.  

Small explosion?  

God bowling?

Somebody's incredibly loud stomach due to being hungry?

No, wait.  I know.  It's thunder!  Looks like there's a storm just to my west so we'll see what happens.  

[Andie]

Oooo! Send some of that my way!   We’d probably suspect a sonic boom with all these new generation jets being built just 5 mi north of me.  They fly right over my house at low altitude sometimes at the Naval Air Base. Very cool actually.  
But yeah, we need rain   

 

 

[westMJim]

 

 

Grand Rapids is now at 11 days of 80 or better in a row for this September. In 2017 Grand Rapids had 7 days in a row of 80° in a row with 6 of them being 90 or better with 4 in a row of 94 or better with 2 at 95 and one at 96. Lows were much warmer that year than this year with lows in upper 60's on several nights.

[bud2380]

Models continue to dry up in Iowa, especially  north of I80.  We may be lucky to get a 1/2".  Was really hoping we got at least an inch.  It may come down to a lucky downpour in an isolated thunderstorm to get to that amount though.  

[Tom]

44 minutes ago, Andie said:

Oooo! Send some of that my way!   We’d probably suspect a sonic boom with all these new generation jets being built just 5 mi north of me.  They fly right over my house at low altitude sometimes at the Naval Air Base. Very cool actually.  
But yeah, we need rain   

 

 

Are they the F-35 Raptor?  They store a bunch of them on our naval base in the west valley.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Mby recieved .60" in a weak line of storms at 2 am. The first measurable rain in 21 days!  The 2nd time this summer I saw 21 days with zero rain, the other was most of July. Im just returning today from a vacation in colorado. Cant wait to see the sun mon rain!

[Hawkeye]

Last night's rain event was a bust around here.  The weekend event continues to drift south.  We will have to get rain from the initial front Saturday evening.

The Euro has been the most bullish for me, but I'm on the edge now.  The AI Euro has consistently been south.

[OttumwaSnomow]

It was so nice to head into the Colorado Rockies and escape the dreaded heat, humidity and drought of Iowa. Although the entire route was very dry.  On wednesday we spent some time above 12000ft. It was as low as 36f and extremely windy behind the montana low.  Beautiful weather entire trip  40 at night 65 for highs.