September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Tyler Mode]

Starting off September with partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 50s.

[Tyler Mode]

The models are upping the ante with the mid week heat, extending it, making it hotter...it was 2 days in the 90s.  Now it's 4.

Edited September 1, 2024 by Tyler Mode

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

The models are upping the ante with the mid week heat, extending it, making it hotter...it was 2 days in the 90s.  Now it's 4.

Jesse can't puke on this anymore or any posts that show people enjoying sunny and warm weather. 

[TT-SEA]

Pinned! 

Welcome to fall!   I see we have a new color scheme too.  

[T-Town]

Looking rather fall-like this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

The models are upping the ante with the mid week heat, extending it, making it hotter...it was 2 days in the 90s.  Now it's 4.

Par for the course. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE has 33 90+ highs this summer. Highlighted by 17 in July and 12 in what turned out to be another scorching August. 

[LowerGarfield]

Could be a near record high day in the inland nw.

[the_convergence_zone]

3 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

The models are upping the ante with the mid week heat, extending it, making it hotter...it was 2 days in the 90s.  Now it's 4.

Mother Nature making us whole for the 2 weeks of summer that got stolen from us in August. 

[ShawniganLake]

88F here yesterday.  I was at a wedding yesterday. The ceremony was inside but everything else was outdoor and the weather could not have been nicer.  

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Jesse can't puke on this anymore or any posts that show people enjoying sunny and warm weather. 

Uh oh. What happened to Jesse’s puking ability.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

88F here yesterday.  I was at a wedding yesterday. The ceremony was inside but everything else was outdoor and the weather could not have been nicer.  

88 sounds hot for that area. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Jesse can't puke on this anymore or any posts that show people enjoying sunny and warm weather. 

He’ll be ok as long as he can give me a weenie. 

[BLI snowman]

1944 emerging as a top analog with the end of summer heat and stale look to things. 

Absolutely woeful winter followed, which transposed across an even warmer climate baseline today would undoubtedly bring misery to us all. 

[High Desert Mathew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1944 emerging as a top analog with the end of summer heat and stale look to things. 

Absolutely woeful winter followed, which transposed across an even warmer climate baseline today would undoubtedly bring misery to us all. 

I believe it. Nothing even here on the high desert I’d bet. Was that year a La Niña following an El Niño tho? 

[Deweydog]

 

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

88 sounds hot for that area. 

We hit up an oceanfront patio between the ceremony and the reception.  And the reception was at a large rural property with lots of shade.  

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I believe it. Nothing even here on the high desert I’d bet. Was that year a La Niña following an El Niño tho? 

Neutral following neutral. But this winter may stay neutral ish as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1944 emerging as a top analog with the end of summer heat and stale look to things. 

Absolutely woeful winter followed, which transposed across an even warmer climate baseline today would undoubtedly bring misery to us all. 

2017 was pretty hot in early September. Hopefully no firework throwing TEENS this year. 

[High Desert Mathew]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Neutral following neutral. But this winter may stay neutral ish as well.

So the teleconnections are different. We’re slowly entering La Niña as we speak. I think we have a weak Niña this year. 

[Groundhog]

Go ahead, Jesse, ralph on this as you wished rain for my family as we hope to go to Baker on Saturday. (Forecast is Abbotsford,  but a fried egg is preferable to “mainly sunny” as cloud can still obscure these mountains when mainly sunny on the valley floor). Still, it’s threading a needle as to when the ridge weakens and collapses. There will be pictures posted next Saturday evening should we make the trek. 
 

If border traffic is minimal, should only be about an hr drive.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Looking rather fall-like this morning. 

Severe clear up here in Bellingham (a few miles inland)  and already pushing 70 degrees.  Spider season has definitely started though, I've been walking through webs all weekend.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Uh oh. What happened to Jesse’s puking ability.  

And the bongo cat????  Loved the bongo cat!

[T-Town]

The fog rolled to our doorstep but has retreated back to the water. Still just 61 degrees here. 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

And the bongo cat????  Loved the bongo cat!

Definitely need bongo cat back. 

[Sunriver Slush Zone]

You guys ruined Sean nybergs little freak out post. Less reacts on it now. 

 

Bring back Phil!

[Sunriver Slush Zone]

49 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Definitely need bongo cat back. 

I still don't even get what bongo cat means, I've asked multiple times with no response other than 5 bongo cat reactions....

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I still don't even get what bongo cat means, I've asked multiple times with no response other than 5 bongo cat reactions....

No idea. I just liked it. I like snow too. No idea why, I just like it. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So the teleconnections are different. We’re slowly entering La Niña as we speak. I think we have a weak Niña this year. 

Looking like it'll be very close to a nothing burger as far as the Niña goes. 3.4 is still at a dead even 0.0 anomaly as of the last official update and while Niña forcing is trying to develop it still seems to be getting washed out by other factors even with the favorable pressure anomalies and easterly winds.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I still don't even get what bongo cat means, I've asked multiple times with no response other than 5 bongo cat reactions....

 

[Sunriver Slush Zone]

Went backpacking for a few nights in the three sisters wilderness, was nice to enjoy the clear air and views after those storm systems moved the smoke out. Had some decent low temps at home whilst we were gone, 40 for a low today, 94/35 day yesterday, and a 93/30 day 2 days ago.

 

[Sunriver Slush Zone]

You guys have got me excited for winter considering how negative you're being about it, because reality is, long range forecasts are really just blindly throwing darts. Opposite of what yall forecast is often true.

[Front Ranger]

Here's where August finished up and down I-5.

BLI: -.9

Seattle WFO: +.3

SEA: -.7

OLM: +.6

PDX: +1.2

Downtown Portland: +.2

MMV: +.3

EUG: +1.1

Roseburg: +.2

Medford: -.6

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's where August finished up and down I-5.

BLI: -.9

Seattle WFO: +.3

SEA: -.7

OLM: +.6

PDX: +1.2

Downtown Portland: +.2

MMV: +.3

EUG: +1.1

Roseburg: +.2

Medford: -.6

-0.2F here. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

72 after a low of 57. Kinda warm out there but won’t be too long before we aren’t hitting 70 degrees anymore. 

[BLI snowman]

Also appears that the sunspot count continues to increase. At a new high for the current cycle!

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also appears that the sunspot count continues to increase. At a new high for the current cycle!

 

 

 

Interesting you are so out on this winter. Scared because last year wasn’t the complete dud we were all expecting? 

[Omegaraptor]

32 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

You guys have got me excited for winter considering how negative you're being about it, because reality is, long range forecasts are really just blindly throwing darts. Opposite of what yall forecast is often true.

Easy to say when your worst winters on record would still be considered amazing winters over here.

Even the ghastly 2014-15 managed like 20" of snow there from the looks of it.

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting you are so out on this winter. Scared because last year wasn’t the complete dud we were all expecting? 

I wouldn't say I'm out, but statistically our luck with landing favorable DJF (mostly D and F) patterns is bound to dry up sooner or later and I feel it's very likely nearing the end of its course. 

When you look back on how many smelly turds we had in the 1900-2015 period it puts into perspective that there's a pretty good chance we see something at least relatively close to that soon. I'm talking about a winter without any subfreezing highs or widespread significant lowland snowfall up and down the I-5 corridor. And it doesn't necessarily have to be an all-timer to be a meh winter. More like 30-40th percentile. 

Edited September 1, 2024 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I wouldn't say I'm out, but statistically our luck with landing favorable DJF (mostly D and F) patterns is bound to dry up sooner or later and I feel it's very likely nearing the end of its course. 

When you look back on how many smelly turds we had in the 1900-2015 period it puts into perspective that there's a pretty good chance we see something at least relatively close to that soon. I'm talking about a winter without any subfreezing highs or widespread significant lowland snowfall up and down the I-5 corridor. And it doesn't necessarily have to be an all-timer to be a meh winter. More like 30-40th percentile. 

Something like 99-00?