Report

Only 62F here. Death to the marine layer.

I mentioned this earlier, but this article I think is better. Turns out the new Google AI called Gemcast is actually an ensemble forecast, unlike the other AI models. It runs in 8 minutes for 16 days and can run each individual ensemble run simultaneously. And using data from the past and making forecasts for years that already happened so they can measure it's accuracy, it's much better then even the EPS. It has not been released to the public yet so none of us have seen it. https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/

00z ECMWF Day 8-15. North Pacific View. Check out that jet segment! Active weather is returning.

I've always been someone that takes 5+ days out with a grain of salt. I've observed so far that a lot of guys/gals here take 10+ days as gospel.

Not cold in the short to medium range but could lead to a SWBC/PNW arctic blast late month or early to mid January when the jet retracts. There are also signs of a Siberian Sudden Stratospheric Warning in the models for late month. May not meet the criteria for a major event with a full wind reversal but it should still at least somewhat weaken the Polar Vortex, which should increase the odds of an arctic outbreak this winter.