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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

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By Tyler Mode
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Phishy Wx,

near the airport earlier
Recommended by Meatyorologist
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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

20 feet would be nuts. Michael had a peak storm surge of 15.5.

I feel like these maps are often overdone a bit (probably to err on the safe side), but we'll see.

This is a bigger storm than Michael though. Tropical storm force winds already extend over 400 miles in diameter, versus 350 miles for Michael. That'll make a big difference in the amount of water it churns up. 

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Phishy Wx
Phishy Wx

near the airport earlier

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Random pics of our road trip in August. 

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Tenochtitlan Mentor

Tenochtitlan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

This is a bigger storm than Michael though. Tropical storm force winds already extend over 400 miles in diameter, versus 350 miles for Michael. That'll make a big difference in the amount of water it churns up. 

The large wind radius, coupled with fast speed, also looks threatening for inland wind damage. Not to mention, it looks like a big flood producer for the Appalachians.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

This is a bigger storm than Michael though. Tropical storm force winds already extend over 400 miles in diameter, versus 350 miles for Michael. That'll make a big difference in the amount of water it churns up. 

No doubt, though I'm no expert on how much that effects peak storm surge in the hardest hit areas. Seems obvious there will be a larger area with major storm surge.

It does appear there's historical precedent for a few storms exceeding 20' storm surge in or near the panhandle. Timing will be important, as the closer peak surge is to high tide, the worse it will be.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted

Dust Storm warning

  

The National Weather Service in Spokane has issued a

* Dust Storm Warning for...
Southwestern Bonner County in the Panhandle of Idaho...
West central Benewah County in the Panhandle of Idaho...
Western Kootenai County in the Panhandle of Idaho...
Northeastern Adams County in eastern Washington...
Northeastern Whitman County in eastern Washington...
Eastern Lincoln County in eastern Washington...
Southeastern Stevens County in northeastern Washington...
Spokane County in northeastern Washington...
Southeastern Pend Oreille County in northeastern Washington...

* Until 445 PM PDT.

* At 412 PM PDT, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 7
miles north of Davenport to 7 miles south of Cheney, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Near zero visibility with strong wind in excess of 50
mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

* This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 in Washington between mile markers 239 and 299.
Interstate 90 in Idaho between mile markers 0 and 8.
U.S. Highway 95 in Idaho between mile markers 404 and 421.
U.S. Highway 2 in Washington between mile markers 232 and 319.
U.S. Highway 195 in Washington between mile markers 66 and 95.
U.S. Highway 395 in Washington between mile markers 165 and 194.

Locations impacted include...
Spokane, Spokane Valley, Post Falls, Cheney, Rathdrum, Liberty Lake,
Airway Heights, Medical Lake, Nine Mile Falls, Deer Park, Spirit
Lake, Millwood, Davenport, Hauser, Otis Orchards-East Farms,
Fairwood, Suncrest, Fairchild AFB, Otis Orchards, and Dishman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dust storms lead to dangerous driving conditions with visibility
reduced to near zero. If driving, avoid dust storms if possible. If
caught in one, pull off the road, turn off your lights and keep your
foot off the brake.
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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted

That cell was intense. Not too much wind but wow the thunder. Lightning and decent hail. About 0.05 fell and no damage (as best I can tell).

 

Sunny again.

  • Storm 3

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: TBD

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low:

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Massive rains! 1.05” so far on the day. 
Currently 55 and dumping. I still need to fix my gutter. 

IMG_8356.jpeg

IMG_8357.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

Wow! It's dumping in Skagit County! I'm over in Eastern Washington for work, but I just checked my weather station at home and saw I'm up to 1.73" on the day. More than an inch of that fell in little over an hour from 2:15-3:15 p.m!

That would certainly be the heaviest sustained rain I've ever seen here by a long shot! Before, the most rain I've ever picked up in an hour is less than 0.5"! I thought it was maybe an error in my weather station, but the data is echoed in all the other stations in my area. Kind of sad I wasn't there to witness it.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

near the airport earlier

image.thumb.png.45d25a919df7936361c261b1a5613aa7.png

Incredible! Speaking of Phoenix...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Wow! It's dumping in Skagit County! I'm over in Eastern Washington for work, but I just checked my weather station at home and saw I'm up to 1.73" on the day. More than an inch of that fell in little over an hour from 2:15-3:15 p.m!

That would certainly be the heaviest sustained rain I've ever seen here by a long shot! Before, the most rain I've ever picked up in an hour is less than 0.5"! I thought it was maybe an error in my weather station, but the data is echoed in all the other stations in my area. Kind of sad I wasn't there to witness it.

Judging by the radar and my own totals so far I’m sure that is accurate! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Complete bust here today.  Must be some really epic shadowing.  I suppose it could be the gutter thing also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Holy crap.  The 18z GFS took all of the rain away after today for the next 10 at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Looks like SEA did as bad as here.  Only .09 on the day.  They are going to end up with a seriously dry month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA did as bad as here.  Only .09 on the day.  They are going to end up with a seriously dry month.

WOW! 1.30” here now! 

  • Rain 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

0.15” today not as exciting as some other locations but we did get nailed earlier this month while other places missed out. Up to 1.53” MTD. 

Still a bit low for September, but not terrible.  SEA is really dry.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

The large wind radius, coupled with fast speed, also looks threatening for inland wind damage. Not to mention, it looks like a big flood producer for the Appalachians.

The phasing with the ULL currently over TN/KY also adds a unique element to it. Could wreak havoc on the track but also give it a little more high end rainfall potential where it ends up.

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA did as bad as here.  Only .09 on the day.  They are going to end up with a seriously dry month.

warm dry fall continues, one day of some scattered T-storms over here will not solve anything.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

warm dry fall continues, one day of some scattered T-storms over here will not solve anything.

ECMWF gets downright chilly next week.  Still not much precip though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Tenochtitlan Mentor

Tenochtitlan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The phasing with the ULL currently over TN/KY also adds a unique element to it. Could wreak havoc on the track but also give it a little more high end rainfall potential where it ends up.

Is the ULL what’s producing the “precursor rain” right now over Georgia?

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