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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet Tampa still hasn't had a major cane hit hit since 1921. Crazy since every other city in the Gulf has had multiple major cane hits since then, and some like New Orleans have had probably 6-10 with at least glancing blows.

Yeah that’s a difficult track for a major hurricane given topography and climatological steering (especially in Aug/Sep).

The fact they’ve had so many near misses in the 21st century is fortuitous. Charley, Irma, Ian, etc, could have slammed right in there with the slightest change to boundary conditions.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Below normal number of systems, but almost everything that's forming is hitting US.

Yup. ACE is well below average, too. So it’s a disproportionate amount of impact for the activity level. Also, the storms that make landfall have been either steady-state or strengthening upon hitting land.

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It definitely has not been a wet month regionally, and we know these maps skew dry...but this September's precip anomaly map seems particularly suspect. BLI, OLM, and Tacoma are all above normal precip for the month, UIL is right at normal, so is Landsburg, but looking at this map you'd think it has been bone dry everywhere.

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

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7 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yup. ACE is well below average, too. So it’s a disproportionate amount of impact for the activity level. Also, the storms that make landfall have been either steady-state or strengthening upon hitting land.

Interestingly, while the Atlantic is running ~ 30% below average in terms of ACE (pre-Helene), global ACE is a whopping 45% below average. 😵‍💫 The Pacific has been dead as a doornail.

A global phenomenon, possibly related to the effects of that unprecedented Antarctic SSW on the axisymmetric structure of deep tropical convection and the mass circulation.

IMG_8595.jpeg

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s a difficult track for a major hurricane given topography and climatological steering (especially in Aug/Sep).

The fact they’ve had so many near misses in the 21st century is fortuitous. Charley, Irma, Ian, etc, could have slammed right in there with the slightest change to boundary conditions.

No doubt. And then Miami, on the other hand, is in a prime spot to get hit and still hasn't had a major cane since Andrew in 1992. Way overdue.

A lot of insurance companies stopped covering FL recently (for a variety of reasons), can't imagine what the insurance situation would look like if one of the big cities took a direct hit from a major cane. Jacksonville and Orlando being the main other targets outside Tampa/St. Pete and Miami.

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6 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Hurricane Helene is up to 120 mph now. Major hurricane…seems it may be starting to RI.

And this is despite the LLC and MLC still not being fully aligned. And we’re approaching diurnal minimum.

Nothing is certain, but the ingredients are present for significant intensification tonight.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good grief this is insane.  in Mountainous terrain as well,  Have some friends who live in that pink zone in WNC. 20-30". D**n

 

image.thumb.png.18c1b5ec3ee8894619ed6a2cb85b3d00.png

That’s bad news. And with the inland wind damage combined with waterlogged soils, there will no doubt we lots of power outages.

Not sure when the last time was that Asheville was issued a tropical storm warning….

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3 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That’s bad news. And with the inland wind damage combined with waterlogged soils, there will no doubt we lots of power outages.

Not sure when the last time was that Asheville was issued a tropical storm warning….

nuts, gotta be a 100 year + event, probably worst

 

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12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good grief this is insane.  in Mountainous terrain as well,  Have some friends who live in that pink zone in WNC. 20-30". D**n

 

image.thumb.png.18c1b5ec3ee8894619ed6a2cb85b3d00.png

This was corrected as a glitch in the map

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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6 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That’s bad news. And with the inland wind damage combined with waterlogged soils, there will no doubt we lots of power outages.

Not sure when the last time was that Asheville was issued a tropical storm warning….

Looks like Atlanta metro could get hit pretty good by tropical storm conditions as well. Tallahassee will likely be the other significant city seeing major winds from Helene.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like Atlanta metro could get hit pretty good by tropical storm conditions as well. Tallahassee will likely be the other significant city seeing major winds from Helene.

Atlanta might see hurricane gusts. This storm is going to mess A LOT of people up

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like Atlanta metro could get hit pretty good by tropical storm conditions as well. Tallahassee will likely be the other significant city seeing major winds from Helene.

Yep. This one will have bad inland impacts, while the coastal ones will be mitigated by making landfall in the Big Bend area. I looked that up on Google maps, and it’s amazing how few people live there. The biggest towns on the coast have like 500 people. 

Tampa will still get decently bad surge, though, just because the storm is so huge. 

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Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

Yep. This one will have bad inland impacts, while the coastal ones will be mitigated by making landfall in the Big Bend area. I looked that up on Google maps, and it’s amazing how few people live there. The biggest towns on the coast have like 500 people. 

Tampa will still get decently bad surge, though, just because the storm is so huge. 

My parents in Hernando are expecting 12 feet of surge

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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. . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes

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On a non-hurricane note, I need to vent about this month. While it hasn't quite been on the same level as July/August in the PNW, it's been just about impossible to get a below average September here for the past decade or so. In fact, the last one cooler than the long term normal at DEN was all the way back in 2011.

2013 had the incredible rains (wettest month on record) and 2020 had the super early snow, but other than that basically ever September has been a warm, dry snoozefest. The worst part is that by late August, I'm dying for real fall weather - and instead get extended summer year after year.

All of this adds up to early fall being my least favorite time of year here. Sorry for the Phil-esque rant about my weather.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting how the GEFS solution for week-2 continues to evolve from -PNA to +PT/+TNH (loading pattern).

Definitely has been rushing the seasonal transition in wave train modes. As has most other guidance.

IMB_cOS1Xq.gif

Spells the end of winter before it even started.

At least I can kick off my flagstone path project and maybe get it done before February. 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just weird this year.  It seems like Mother Nature is just dead set on giving the forecasters the middle finger.  The ECMWF was always pretty lukewarm about this one though.

Up to 120mph winds now despite the fact the pressure has only dropped 7mb.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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40 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

. . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes

Looks like that combo of ULL and hurricane is going to cause some real problems.

Interesting to note that 3 of the 4 years they mention there ended up having top drawer stuff here in the winter following.  Even 2004-05 had a setup in early January that was bringing up talk of Jan 1950 analogs by the NWS both locally and nationally.  It ended up being fine details that messed it up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like that combo of ULL and hurricane is going to cause some real problems.

Interesting to note that 3 of the 4 years they mention there ended up having top drawer stuff in the winter following.  Even 2004-05 had a setup in early January that was bringing up talk of Jan 1950 analogs by the NWS both locally and nationally.  It ended up being fine details that messed it up.

I think that was the winter the Seattle Times published an article about the potential for the biggest arctic blast in decades. Well…at least it did snow an inch in January! 

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8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Up to 120mph winds now despite the fact the pressure has only dropped 7mb.

Must be tight gradients in spite of relatively unimpressive pressure.  Looks like the ECMWF may have been one of the worst models on this.  For a long time it didn't even see it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

I think that was the winter the Seattle Times published an article about the potential for the biggest arctic blast in decades. Well…at least it did snow an inch in January! 

That was one of the most painful busts I have ever seen.  The better models now may have given a more accurate picture, but who knows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Must be tight gradients in spite of relatively unimpressive pressure.  Looks like the ECMWF may have been one of the worst models on this.  For a long time it didn't even see it.

I use the intensity models over the globals at this point, its go time.  we know were its going for the most part now give or take 50miles ish

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Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

CFS says winter is over before it started. Good thing it’s the CFS

You have to use a composite of multiple runs for that model to be worth anything.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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GFS and ECMWF are quite different on tonight's front.  ECMWF is a lot wetter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I use the intensity models over the globals at this point, its go time.  we know were its going for the most part now give or take 50miles ish

Yeah....I was talking about leading up to the formation of the storm.  The GFS picked up on it way sooner than the ECMWF.  It's almost like the ECMWF has gotten worse than it used to be.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah it’s over. Southern BC will be pounded by ARs all winter and PDX will average 60/52 this December.

With us pushing 70F down here. We got into the mid 60s a couple Christmases ago and were 55F last year.

2002-03 and 2014-15 status...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 51F (Oct 30, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 29F (Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....I was talking about leading up to the formation of the storm.  The GFS picked up on it way sooner than the ECMWF.  It's almost like the ECMWF has gotten worse than it used to be.

I've been trying to tell you this..

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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