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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah it’s over. Southern BC will be pounded by ARs all winter and PDX will average 60/52 this December.

My prediction is that SEA gets 2.08” of rain with a high/low of 35/33 on Christmas Eve. Meanwhile it snows four feet at Tim’s house 

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5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

My prediction is that SEA gets 2.08” of rain with a high/low of 35/33 on Christmas Eve. Meanwhile it snows four feet at Tim’s house 

4 feet at Tim’s new place in Gig Harbor! 😮

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

And NHC is forecasting it to maintain Cat 2 strength well into southern Georgia. This could be worse than Michael for that area.

Though the good news for Tallahassee is the track was shifted to the east. It looks like the worst-hit towns will probably be Perry, FL up through Valdosta, GA. A similar track to Idalia but with more severe impacts and for a larger area. 

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Due to wicked insomnia, felt this sucker at 4am. Laying on the couch trying to sleep and thought it was the Mrs playing a mild prank on me by rocking the couch. I sat up quickly and looked around. Saw no one, then questioned my sanity. 

IMG_5030.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I'm suspicious of the intensity holding so much inland.. I have seen over the last few years, storms collapse very rapidly once they hit the land. 

This one will be moving quickly, also when storms are strengthening during landfall they take more time to spin down than weakening ones. I think larger storms also retain their intensity for a bit longer.

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49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

125 now, will be a Cat 4 soon.

DVORAK is estimating a pressure of 934mb. If recon can confirm that then that means it’s exploding right now.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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8 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This one will be moving quickly, also when storms are strengthening during landfall they take more time to spin down than weakening ones. I think larger storms also retain their intensity for a bit longer.

It will also be interacting with a frontal system. Still, these storms just collapse when they hit land. See Francine for example.

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Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

It will also be interacting with a frontal system. Still, these storms just collapse when they hit land. See Francine for example.

Francine was a good deal weaker when it hit Louisiana. 

It isn’t hard to find examples of hurricanes that maintained hurricane strength a good distance inland: Katrina, Hugo, Michael, etc.

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8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

It will also be interacting with a frontal system. Still, these storms just collapse when they hit land. See Francine for example.

Not always. Hugo famously held together very well and had pretty massive wind impacts (90-110mph wind gusts) as far inland as Charlotte. And of course Hazel which wrecked the DC area and then devastated the Toronto area after interacting with an incoming trough.

Edited by BLI snowman
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31 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I'm suspicious of the intensity holding so much inland.. I have seen over the last few years, storms collapse very rapidly once they hit the land. 

Not when they hit at 35 mph

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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30 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Due to wicked insomnia, felt this sucker at 4am. Laying on the couch trying to sleep and thought it was the Mrs playing a mild prank on me by rocking the couch. I sat up quickly and looked around. Saw no one, then questioned my sanity. 

IMG_5030.jpeg

I also felt this due to laying awake in bed. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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21 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This one will be moving quickly, also when storms are strengthening during landfall they take more time to spin down than weakening ones. I think larger storms also retain their intensity for a bit longer.

I think we're going to see a massive amount of tree damage in southern Georgia. Some of those live oaks are 300 years old and 150 feet wide.

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14 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

We'll see what happens. I don't think it will hold Cat 2 intensity well into Georgia. 

NB: by “well into” I mean what the NHC forecast cone shows, which is around Moultrie, GA, where they forecast it will be 105 mph. Will be interesting to see whether that holds true. 

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Just now, T-Town said:

Probably the hurricane. 

Must be since it’s getting breezy as well! The outer bands have hit! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Ooof is right..

 

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still time for a 5? 

Theoretically yes, but I suspect it will top out as a high-end Cat4.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Theoretically yes, but I suspect it will top out as a high-end Cat4.

The Michael comparisons are just uncanny

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Michael was forecast to hit as a Cat 4 and ended up hitting as a Cat 5.

Michael was also A LOT slower. Had way more time to ramp up. This thing going through RI at 26 mph is nuts. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably will make a run at 145-150mph, IMO.

Thats what I’m thinking as well. I feel like it’s moving too fast to get to category 5 strength.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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19 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Helene is a bigger storm like Katrina. Camille and Andrew were smaller but powerful storms.

The storm surge will be insane. Had this taken a different tack and hit Tampa, it would undoubtedly be one of the top five most expensive hurricanes of all time. 

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2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I'm suspicious of the intensity holding so much inland.. I have seen over the last few years, storms collapse very rapidly once they hit the land. 

Hugo in 89 was an exception due to fast forward speed, I went thru that one in Columbia SC

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Hugo in 89 was an exception due to fast forward speed, I went thru that one in Columbia SC

Let's see how this one holds up. I have been surprised by the complete collapse, something like 12 hours after landfall (which I think occurs immediately, and just takes a while to be recognized on satellite, etc). If it's so strong at landfall, still strengthening, and moving 30mph maybe it will hold up better. 

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