September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

probably, was 52 this morning

Jeez, I forget how warm your lows are even in fall, I beat you by 20 degrees. 

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

How?

geografee

[SunAndSnow]

The last two days have been beautiful, crisp mornings, sunny and ~75°, nice sunsets. 

[Phishy Wx]

and a Fire Weather Warning tomorrow

 

loving this Warm DRY fall

[High Desert Mat?]

53 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

85 here, Solidly ABOVE normal!

Here as well. Jim seems to think Covington and Seattle north are the only places that matter. 87 here today which makes it solidly above normal. Don’t doubt this fact. 

[LowerGarfield]

39 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

and a Fire Weather Warning tomorrow

 

loving this Warm DRY fall

I would rather some rain. Fire Weather watch in late September is for CA, not WA.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I would rather some rain. Fire Weather watch in late September is for CA, not WA.

exactly

[Cold Snap]

This gem of a post from 2005 is why you never cancel hurricane season in August. The things circled just make this post that much more of a gem.

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44/60 for the day here.

[DeepFriedEgg]

117F, 21F DP at phx today 3%RH

Beat the old record of 108F for the date. 4th day in a row of beating a daily record. My god the southwest is on fire this summer and fall.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

When a Mommy air molecule loves a Daddy air molecule very much, they get their friction on.

Alright, I lol’ed.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

This gem of a post from 2005 is why you never cancel hurricane season in August. The things circled just make this post that much more of a gem.

It's almost October 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

117F, 21F DP at phx today 3%RH

Beat the old record of 108F for the date. 4th day in a row of beating a daily record. My god the southwest is on fire this summer and fall.

Ridiculous. Steroidal Hadley Cell(s) across the NH.

Looks like a bone dry winter ahead for CA/SW US (and possibly much of the Intermountain West as well). Would be a significant reversal from the last couple of winters in that regard.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Here as well. Jim seems to think Covington and Seattle north are the only places that matter. 87 here today which makes it solidly above normal. Don’t doubt this fact. 

Honestly he seriously should consider moving here, lots of sun, lots of snow, and COLD low temps which makes the afternoons bearable. Plus he'd learn that outside of the Puget Sound, the pnw can easily reach the 80s into October.

[Phil]

The GFS has been very unstable with the NPAC pattern D5+. Another big jump with the GOA trough tonight in the medium range, seems to be catching up to the other guidance.

[MossMan]

I had a high of 58. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ridiculous. Steroidal Hadley Cell(s) across the NH.

Looks like a bone dry winter ahead for CA/SW US (and possibly much of the Intermountain West as well). Would be a significant reversal from the last couple of winters in that regard.

The roll forwards to Phoenix having super-Summer heat actually give somewhat of a +PNA signal for Dec and Jan, which are at odds with other things so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.  In +1year though, the SW, US way above average usually spreads to the Midwest and East Coast (possibly for Winter 25-26). I noticed before that conditions in the SW, US lead further east pretty highly on different timescales, so this is another matching research in that regard. It seems to be a "beginning area". 

[StormchaserChuck1]

58 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

117F, 21F DP at phx today 3%RH

Beat the old record of 108F for the date. 4th day in a row of beating a daily record. My god the southwest is on fire this summer and fall.

That is really, really crazy. They beat the all-time record for September, and tied it for August. 

[Phil]

IVT 3000+kg|m/s Didn’t think that was even possible in North America.

Those rainfall rates must have been otherworldly. Picture in your head the most extreme thunderstorm downpour you’ve ever experienced, but lasting 12+ hours.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

IVT 3000+kg|m/s Didn’t think that was even possible in North America.

Those rainfall rates must have been otherworldly. Think the most extreme thunderstorm downpour you’ve ever seen, but lasting 12+ hours.

More global precipitable water these days too. Last Winter it broke all previous years by 120%, according to CDC reanalysis maps. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The roll forwards to Phoenix having super-Summer heat actually give somewhat of a +PNA signal for Dec and Jan, which are at odds with other things so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.  In +1year though, the SW, US way above average usually spreads to the Midwest and East Coast (possibly for Winter 25-26). I noticed before that conditions in the SW, US lead further east pretty highly on different timescales, so this is another matching research in that regard. It seems to be a "beginning area". 

I’m sure the heat will spread east just in time to ruin next summer. These torch years tend to cluster together.

[StormchaserChuck1]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure the heat will spread east just in time to ruin next summer. These torch years tend to cluster together.

Maybe the cap will break easier next summer.. clouds don't tower up in the sky nearly as often as when I was a kid. I'm trying to figure out what's the major difference. 

[snow_wizard]

Models not looking as interesting as 24 hours ago.  I hope this isn't a 1988 type fall.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Maybe the cap will break easier next summer.. clouds don't tower up in the sky nearly as often as when I was a kid. I'm trying to figure out what's the major difference. 

In the NW the summers are basically unrecognizable from what they were through about 2001 or so.  Since then HOT almost every single year.  With us it's obviously the 4CH blowing up to much larger sizes than it used to.  The Pacific High has a much harder time delivering low level cool onshore flow with that beast always fighting it.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

In the NW the summers are basically unrecognizable from what they were through about 2001 or so.  Since then HOT almost every single year.  With us it's obviously the 4CH blowing up to much larger sizes than it used to.  The Pacific High has a much harder time delivering low level cool onshore flow with that beast always fighting it.

Exactly! It's warmer, but warm/cold front conditions no longer as present. 

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

More global precipitable water these days too. Last Winter it broke all previous years by 120%, according to CDC reanalysis maps. 

I think Hunga Tonga has something to do with it, but most people on this forum disagree.

[StormchaserChuck1]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Hunga Tonga has something to do with it, but most people on this forum disagree.

Something has to be the cause. It seems like everything is just streaming, fast northern jet. No real potential in the upper atmosphere for major cloud height most of the time. 

You're right, it started about 2000/2001, and probably got worse in the last 10-15 years. 

[Meatyorologist]

Something!

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Something!

Maybe cloud seeding. Who knows.. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Maybe cloud seeding. Who knows.. 

Maybe one day someone will figure it out

[StormchaserChuck1]

3 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

This gem of a post from 2005 is why you never cancel hurricane season in August. The things circled just make this post that much more of a gem.

That's weird because 2005 was active way before Katrina.. we had 2 Cat 4+ in July.  It was on the 11th letter Aug 23rd which is well before halfway through the season.. 

[snow_wizard]

Way cloudier than originally expected tonight.  Bummer for cold night fans.  The next several nights looks to have some good potential for 30s in the cold spots though.

[StormchaserChuck1]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe one day someone will figure it out

Any theories?  I'm talking about a pretty substantial difference in the upper atmosphere post-2000 vs before. Then another big difference after about 2013. 

[snow_wizard]

One or possibly two tropical storms progged over the Atlantic over the next 10 days.  Still way short of what was predicted this season.  The clock is ticking now.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Any theories?  I'm talking about a pretty substantial difference in the upper atmosphere post-2000 vs before. Then another big difference after about 2013. 

What was the 2013 change.  Just doubling down on the change that came before that?  The really odd thing for the NW is once we get toward October most years snap back to what it's always been like more or less.

I think almost all of it is the bloated 4CH.  Once summer is over that ceases to be a factor.

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What was the 2013 change.  Just doubling down on the change that came before that?  The really odd thing for the NW is once we get toward October most years snap back to what it's always been like more or less.

Yeah, doubling down, less lightning, more streaming atmospheric jet, "global brainwashing" etc lol. I think this can be measured in Florida.. they used to get so many storms every day! There was so much lightning all the time. Lately it's maybe 25% of the early 2000s. I watch the radar there, it's nowhere near as active in the Summer

[Snownerd3000]

 

[snow drift]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

and a Fire Weather Warning tomorrow

 

loving this Warm DRY fall

1988 was similar. Halloween 1988 was close to 70 degrees. It snowed on election day 1988. The quail were hiding under the snow covered bushes.

[snow drift]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Models not looking as interesting as 24 hours ago.  I hope this isn't a 1988 type fall.

Looks like it without the strong trough of mid September 1988.