September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wasn’t 2022 the year it stayed bone dry until late October then lurched into a hard freeze (with snow for some of us) in early November? Not going to be like that west of the Cascades.

Spring projects in December? Nice.

[MossMan]

I had a low of 45. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Low of 37.8

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wasn’t 2022 the year it stayed bone dry until late October then lurched into a hard freeze (with snow for some of us) in early November? Not going to be like that west of the Cascades.

The first 20 days of October were super warm. November and December turned out being pretty decent.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Low of 37.8

37.2, hot morning here.

[Phishy Wx]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Models not looking as interesting as 24 hours ago.  I hope this isn't a 1988 type fall.

Warm DRY fall

[Phishy Wx]

Frost advisory tonight, but also a Blowing dust and fire weather advisory today.  long term looks warm/dry

 

trees are finally trying to turn colors

[Phishy Wx]

1988 had a below normal Sept temp wise in Spokane -2.2

 

this Sept is running +6.3.  we have a pretty bad fever over here.

 

probably a combo low soil moisture and increasing UHI with growth and population increase

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Fall and summer of 1949 was almost identical to this one, I'll root for a hot and dry fall just because of that. Jan 1950 redux is coming

[Slushy Inch]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Is Tim controlling the EPS?  No cold on our side of the pole, at all.

EPS weeklies have been showing this for the whole run. Utterly boring fall. Really hoping this will flip for winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Fall and summer of 1949 was almost identical to this one, I'll root for a hot and dry fall just because of that. Jan 1950 redux is coming

WAT. October 1949 was the coldest on record for most of the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

EPS weeklies have been showing this for the whole run. Utterly boring fall. Really hoping this will flip for winter.

I'd rather have it now then later. 

[Deweydog]

39 for a Lowe here this morning.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd rather have it now then later. 

True.

[High Desert Mathew]

16 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Fall and summer of 1949 was almost identical to this one, I'll root for a hot and dry fall just because of that. Jan 1950 redux is coming

Fall just started. 

[Cold Snap]

9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

That was also more than a month earlier in hurricane season. Climo goes downhill from here much quicker.

Thats true. Thought there were a lot of people on twitter saying this season was going to be a bust back in August due to how quiet it was then despite the fact there was Debby and Ernesto.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the 12z GFS is accurate there will be no rain here through mid-October. 

[snow drift]

51 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

1988 had a below normal Sept temp wise in Spokane -2.2

 

this Sept is running +6.3.  we have a pretty bad fever over here.

 

probably a combo low soil moisture and increasing UHI with growth and population increase

There was a lot of ridging, including the heatwave at the beginning of September 1988. September 1988 had a cooler period in the middle of the month. This September hasn't had anything like that. In both cases ridging was dominant.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bet it's beautiful up in Spokane this time of year. 

[Tenochtitlan]

There are some horrific photos coming out of Asheville today. The river arts district was completely destroyed by the French broad river.

It makes me wonder what would a 1000-year flood be like here, on the Willamette? Would any bridges or neighborhoods in Portland, or the other cities on the river, be threatened? 

The French Broad river’s previous record high in Asheville was 20 feet. With Helene it smashed that record, and reached 30 feet. 

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bet it's beautiful up in Spokane this time of year. 

It's pretty nice. We could definitely use some moisture. The next few weeks do not look too encouraging in that regard. We'll see if that changes.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS weeklies have been showing this for the whole run. Utterly boring fall. Really hoping this will flip for winter.

Pacific Transition Pattern (PT). Perhaps the #1 leading mode of variability during the first half of Autumn.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/pt.shtml

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WAT. October 1949 was the coldest on record for most of the PNW.

You're probably right, I said what I said with no idea what the stats were. I'm still right though, I've never been wrong, 1949 had the exact same weather as this year meaning January 2025 = Jan 1950 redux.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wasn’t 2022 the year it stayed bone dry until late October then lurched into a hard freeze (with snow for some of us) in early November? Not going to be like that west of the Cascades.

Yep. Not uncommon for Niña/+QBO to have a warm/dry lean Sep/Oct then flip script Nov/Dec.

1983/84, 1988/89, 2008/09, 2022/23, all Niña/+QBO with +PT/+TNH early/mid autumn transitioning to -PNA late autumn/early winter.

[Phil]

1988 even had the tropically-related wet anomalies in the SE US like this year.

No analog is perfect, but 1988 has been exceptionally good overall. Also had the extreme +NAO summer, outrageous heat/dryness in the east, late-starting tropical season, and was a 1st year Niña/+QBO near solar maximum.

Hard to get a better match than that.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

1988 even had the tropically-related wet anomalies in the SE US like this year.

No analog is perfect, but 1988 has been exceptionally good overall. Also had the extreme +NAO summer, outrageous heat/dryness in the east, late-starting tropical season, and was a 1st year Niña/+QBO near solar maximum.

Hard to get a better match than that.

Feb 1989 was the last time PDX hit single digits, so let's hope we can keep that analog going!

(Jan 2017 probably would have done it if not for UHI, however).

[Phil]

58 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

There are some horrific photos coming out of Asheville today. The river arts district was completely destroyed by the French broad river.

It makes me wonder what would a 1000-year flood be like here, on the Willamette? Would any bridges or neighborhoods in Portland, or the other cities on the river, be threatened? 

The French Broad river’s previous record high in Asheville was 20 feet. With Helene it smashed that record, and reached 30 feet. 

Yeah this is…something else.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah this is…something else.

 

Jeez, that looks like it was a once terrific lake with those views, wow... it really got mt st helens'd with the spirit lake type mess in the water.

[Omegaraptor]

Brookings is Brookingsing

[Deweydog]

57 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Feb 1989 was the last time PDX hit single digits, so let's hope we can keep that analog going!

(Jan 2017 probably would have done it if not for UHI, however).

With winds gusting to 50+

[TigerWoodsLibido]

66F with beautiful sunshine. Nice weekend of football.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

You're probably right, I said what I said with no idea what the stats were. I'm still right though, I've never been wrong, 1949 had the exact same weather as this year meaning January 2025 = Jan 1950 redux.

Ok Tim 

[snow drift]

I know these maps don't mean much, but 1980 was such a trashy winter. I hope we don't continue following that year.

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I know these maps don't mean much, but 1980 was such a trashy winter. I hope we don't continue following that year.

 

OOF!!!!!!!!

some real turds in there.  55-56 is good

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the 12z GFS is accurate there will be no rain here through mid-October. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Bright sunshine, a few puffy clouds, and temperatures in the low 60’s. A perfect fall day.

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bright sunshine, a few puffy clouds, and temperatures in the low 60’s. A perfect fall day.

Hard to improve upon this today.

[Meatyorologist]

The best predictor for this upcoming winter (ENSO) suggests cooler and wetter than usual. As far as I can tell anything until then is subject to a wide range of variability and I see no reason to doubt the cool lean for the winter season.

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The best predictor for this upcoming winter (ENSO) suggests cooler and wetter than usual. As far as I can tell anything until then is subject to a wide range of variability and I see no reason to doubt the cool lean for the winter season.

October warmth is not a deal breaker. 1988, 2008, and 2022 all turned out pretty well. Winter is a separate entity. I don't think anybody is worried at the moment. It may just be a slow starter.