September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

I always love seeing unusual warning combos next to each other.

[DeepFriedEgg]

We are blessed. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

1988 even had the tropically-related wet anomalies in the SE US like this year.

No analog is perfect, but 1988 has been exceptionally good overall. Also had the extreme +NAO summer, outrageous heat/dryness in the east, late-starting tropical season, and was a 1st year Niña/+QBO near solar maximum.

Hard to get a better match than that.

What happened out west that Winter?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I always love seeing unusual warning combos next to each other.

When your photos have strange lines,

that elicit groans and whines,

that’s a Moiré!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling there are going to be an abnormal number of AR events into the PNW this winter and some big time north/south gradient cold events along those boundaries. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling there are going to be an abnormal number of AR events into the PNW this winter and some big time north/south gradient cold events along those boundaries. 

1990!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling there are going to be an abnormal number of AR events into the PNW this winter and some big time north/south gradient cold events along those boundaries. 

Are they gonna drop 5-10" of 36 degree rain on me or 5-10' of 30 degree snow? 

[snow_wizard]

Another solid cool day for SEA today.  Dew points in the upper 30 / low 40s now.  Assuming it clears out as expected tonight there will be 30s in several locations.  Things could be a lot worse!

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling there are going to be an abnormal number of AR events into the PNW this winter and some big time north/south gradient cold events along those boundaries. 

This certainly has that vibe.  Could be a really good one coming up.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Are they gonna drop 5-10" of 36 degree rain on me or 5-10' of 30 degree snow? 

At your elevation you have nothing to worry about this winter.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What happened out west that Winter?

I hope you're joking!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

I always love seeing unusual warning combos next to each other.

Pretty widespread freeze warning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What happened out west that Winter?

I was living in the Yakima Valley then.

The last weekend before the cold front came in, I took a bike ride on the farm roads wearing shorts and a T-shirt.

The first weekend after the cold front, I took a walk on the frozen Yakima River.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

There are some horrific photos coming out of Asheville today. The river arts district was completely destroyed by the French broad river.

It makes me wonder what would a 1000-year flood be like here, on the Willamette? Would any bridges or neighborhoods in Portland, or the other cities on the river, be threatened? 

The French Broad river’s previous record high in Asheville was 20 feet. With Helene it smashed that record, and reached 30 feet. 

I think 1861 probably was a 1000 year flood.  I know they have a marker somewhere of how high the water got.  Truly jaw dropping if memory serves.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

October warmth is not a deal breaker. 1988, 2008, and 2022 all turned out pretty well. Winter is a separate entity. I don't think anybody is worried at the moment. It may just be a slow starter.

Then there’s 2010 which was relatively warm and uneventful in the west Sep/Oct, until a mammoth arctic blast occurred later in November.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I was living in the Yakima Valley then.

The last weekend before the cold front came in, I took a bike ride on the farm roads wearing shorts and a T-shirt.

The first weekend after the cold front, I took a walk on the frozen Yakima River.

That winter got KOLD!  The day after the snow and Arctic air roared in it cleared out and the roads stayed totally frozen even in full sunlight.  Stayed like that for a few day in fact.  Besides that we had a decent CZ snow in January and the best March event I've ever seen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59/42 with wall to wall sunshine today. Absolutely spectacular. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

October warmth is not a deal breaker. 1988, 2008, and 2022 all turned out pretty well. Winter is a separate entity. I don't think anybody is worried at the moment. It may just be a slow starter.

2008 had a very legit cold snap in October.  I remember some low to mid 20s in the lowlands in mid October.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah this is…something else.

 

A bunch of shattered lives right there.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Feb 1989 was the last time PDX hit single digits, so let's hope we can keep that analog going!

(Jan 2017 probably would have done it if not for UHI, however).

Jan 2017 was a very lame air mass compared to 1989.  Not even in the same league by any measure.  

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, snow drift said:

I know these maps don't mean much, but 1980 was such a trashy winter. I hope we don't continue following that year.

 

I have looked at 1980 from every possible angle and still can't figure out why it was such a turd.  Usually there is some hint, but there is just no smoking gun on that one.  For one thing it was proceeded by two great winters, and usually it takes a Nino to break things up when we get into a groove.  I would take my chances with the base state that year had any day of the week.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 2017 was a very lame air mass compared to 1989.  Not even in the same league by any measure.  

Some places here had colder lows in Jan 2017 though because of the foot+ of snow on the ground. Hillsboro in the western Portland metro area dropped down to 3 degrees.  Of course Feb 1989 had colder highs though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ouch 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ouch 

Very real N to S gradient in the Western lowlands this month.  SEA is running 62 point something and I'm in the 61s now IMBY.  PDX being so much warmer than EUG is really odd.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some places here had colder lows in Jan 2017 though because of the foot+ of snow on the ground. Hillsboro in the western Portland metro area dropped down to 3 degrees.  Of course Feb 1989 had colder highs though. 

Yeah....it's totally apples and oranges.

[Tenochtitlan]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 2017 was a very lame air mass compared to 1989.  Not even in the same league by any measure.  

Jan 2017 wasn’t the most impressive numbers-wise, but it was the only time in my life that lakes froze over enough to walk across. I walked over a frozen Lake Padden, which was awesome, and even Green Lake in Seattle froze enough for some idiot to haul a dumpster onto the ice.

It was a combination of dry air and longevity that did that. Part of a frustrating at times, but ultimately pretty great winter in Bellingham. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

October warmth is not a deal breaker. 1988, 2008, and 2022 all turned out pretty well. Winter is a separate entity. I don't think anybody is worried at the moment. It may just be a slow starter.

Agree with your general point, but October 2008 definitely wasn't warm. November was, but the midfall pattern was seasonal to cool.

[MossMan]

Once again BBQ’ing while by the fire while watching football through the window. Very nice evening, currently 53 degrees. 

[Tenochtitlan]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think 1861 probably was a 1000 year flood.  I know they have a marker somewhere of how high the water got.  Truly jaw dropping if memory serves.

That winter was the one that terrible flooding hit the whole west coast. I was just reading the Wikipedia article, and apparently 4,000 people died in California then. And there were two newly founded towns in Oregon that were wiped off the map and never rebuilt!

If something like that were to happen again, I’d imagine that some bridges would be taken out…

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Once again BBQ’ing while by the fire while watching football through the window. Very nice evening, currently 53 degrees. 

53?  Holy sheit!

That is flat out cool for this time of year.  Really good setup for some 30s the next few days.

[BLI snowman]

Absolutely spectacular early fall day today. My first ever time in a hot air balloon and couldn't have asked for better conditions on the last day of their flying season.

Had some great views of the Willamette Valley and early morning views of Mts. Jefferson, Hood, Adams, St. Helens, and Rainier, along with the Three Sisters.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That winter was the one that terrible flooding hit the whole west coast. I was just reading the Wikipedia article, and apparently 4,000 people died in California then. And there were two newly founded towns in Oregon that were wiped off the map and never rebuilt!

If something like that were to happen again, I’d imagine that some bridges would be taken out…

The million dollar question is why was 1861-62 such a weird season.  One early clue that something was off is the world record monthly rainfall was set somewhere in India in July 1861.  The summer of 1861 was a real oddball here as well.  VERY warm by 19th century standards.  Every so often the atmosphere just seems to go on a really odd tangent.

[Groundhog]

Capilano Suspension Bridge was the unofficial first date of the Mrs and I years ago. Kids are now old enough to appreciate it, so that was a Sunday afternoon outing. 
 

They have an incredible Christmas light display starting late November. I included some pics of that from prior years. Since we’re B.C. residents, we turned the admission into annual passes. Kids will love the Christmas lights. Hoping for an epic December to add to the awe and beauty,

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Jan 2017 wasn’t the most impressive numbers-wise, but it was the only time in my life that lakes froze over enough to walk across. I walked over a frozen Lake Padden, which was awesome, and even Green Lake in Seattle froze enough for some idiot to haul a dumpster onto the ice.

It was a combination of dry air and longevity that did that. Part of a frustrating at times, but ultimately pretty great winter in Bellingham. 

PDX had 6 sub-freezing highs in Jan 2017 (plus a couple 33s and three 34s). 

Feb 1989 had three sub-freezing highs.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Absolutely spectacular early fall day today. My first ever time in a hot air balloon and couldn't have asked for better conditions on the last day of their flying season.

Had some great views of the Willamette Valley and early morning views of Mts. Jefferson, Hood, Adams, St. Helens, and Rainier, along with the Three Sisters.

That would be fun!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

PDX had 6 sub-freezing highs in Jan 2017 (plus a couple 33s and three 34s). 

Feb 1989 had three sub-freezing highs.

That's misleading and you know it.  Feb 1989 was an incredible air mass and Jan 2017 wasn't.  Duration and intensity are two very different things.  Also Feb vs Jan.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That's misleading and you know it.  Feb 1989 was an incredible air mass and Jan 2017 wasn't.  Duration and intensity are two very different things.  Alos Feb vs Jan.

Those are the stats for PDX. Longer duration with 2017, greater intensity with 1989. 

It would be misleading if I said those stats prove that January 2017 was the superior Arctic event.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Jan 2017 wasn’t the most impressive numbers-wise, but it was the only time in my life that lakes froze over enough to walk across. I walked over a frozen Lake Padden, which was awesome, and even Green Lake in Seattle froze enough for some idiot to haul a dumpster onto the ice.

It was a combination of dry air and longevity that did that. Part of a frustrating at times, but ultimately pretty great winter in Bellingham. 

It froze really good here as well.  Walked on Lake Meridian which is pretty large.

[T-Town]

Sprinkles here. 

[Tenochtitlan]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

PDX had 6 sub-freezing highs in Jan 2017 (plus a couple 33s and three 34s). 

Feb 1989 had three sub-freezing highs.

Yeah I meant for Western WA. The monthly averages were pretty good but there were no subfreezing highs at SeaTac. I don’t think Bellingham even had any.