September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[RentonHill]

its coming!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

its coming!

I'm not sure when rain became so exciting on this forum.  I do want at least a slightly wet October, because it bodes well for winter.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure when rain became so exciting on this forum.  I do want at least a slightly wet October, because it bodes well for winter.

when summer started

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure when rain became so exciting on this forum.  I do want at least a slightly wet October, because it bodes well for winter.

nooooo not this conversation again.

 

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS is more robust with the trough early next week. The CMC is a little slower to move it inland, but basically concurs.

 

[Front Ranger]

Of course, the last two Euro runs have been much less troughy for next week...so no consensus yet.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course, the last two Euro runs have been much less troughy for next week...so no consensus yet.

Week two is looking pretty cool and troughy no matter how you slice it.  I want troughing, but with the trough axis just east of us as opposed to off the coast.  Just too early to be rooting for gloomy wet weather.  Just my opinion.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like I can put away the air conditioners next week.   

[MossMan]

Fog is even more dense now, temp at 57. 
Have we hit inversion season a little early this year?
Must be Phil’s global cooling mini ice age kicking in! 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile on the solar activity front.  At least we are still running below cycle 23 which was the one at the turn of the century.  I'm disappointed this cycle has gotten as high as it has though.  I was hoping this would become a grand minimum so we could finally see if a very inactive sun would cause global cooling or not.  Looks like we may have to wait a LONG time to find out.

I'll be dead and we'll all be cooked by then

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Week two is looking pretty cool and troughy no matter how you slice it.  I want troughing, but with the trough axis just east of us as opposed to off the coast.  Just too early to be rooting for gloomy wet weather.  Just my opinion.

We get it. You are Sun Wizard now.

[Deweydog]

Coast2coast!!

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

when summer started

nooooo not this conversation again.

 

I just don't get it.  So much of the year is gloomy and wet.  Why can't people just enjoy the nice months that we have?  This climate has always been dry mid May through much of September.

[Phishy Wx]

Warm Fall > Late November regionwide snowstorm > Arctic crash.  BOOK IT

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

I'll be dead and we'll all be cooked by then

The only chance is this could be something like a lightbulb getting brighter just before it burns out.  Maybe the next cycle will be super low, but the chances aren't good now.  We'll get some preview with the sun's magnetic field strength over the next few years.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Warm Fall > Late November regionwide snowstorm > Arctic crash.  BOOK IT

I have always been a fan of cold Octobers.  Way too many winters where that has worked out well for us.  Very Dry Octobers have a very bad history for the coming winter though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

We get it. You are Sun Wizard now.

More like Cold Wizard.  That is the constant.  

[fubario]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get it.  So much of the year is gloomy and wet.  Why can't people just enjoy the nice months that we have?  This climate has always been dry mid May through much of September.

Tim?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d rather it be raining than be 100 like this week. Seems that’s our choice these days. I’m also tired of watching all the trees die. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile on the solar activity front.  At least we are still running below cycle 23 which was the one at the turn of the century.  I'm disappointed this cycle has gotten as high as it has though.  I was hoping this would become a grand minimum so we could finally see if a very inactive sun would cause global cooling or not.  Looks like we may have to wait a LONG time to find out.

Can you explain why you think the solar cycle would be more than a rounding error? The difference between a strong and weak solar maximum is like 0.1 W/m^2 of forcing. And it's pretty well accepted that the climate sensitivity parameter somewhere around 0.5-0.75 deg C per 1 W/m^2. If it did matter, why doesn't the planet appreciably cool during solar minimums? 

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fog is even more dense now, temp at 57. 
Have we hit inversion season a little early this year?
Must be Phil’s global cooling mini ice age kicking in! 

Hmm no fog here.  Cloudless sky from the start.  Still think you should move

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile on the solar activity front.  At least we are still running below cycle 23 which was the one at the turn of the century.  I'm disappointed this cycle has gotten as high as it has though.  I was hoping this would become a grand minimum so we could finally see if a very inactive sun would cause global cooling or not.  Looks like we may have to wait a LONG time to find out.

Seems like the globe has continued to warm as the Solar has decreased these past few decades.  

I did run the numbers a few years ago and we did do noticeably better in winter if we saw a cool Enso event during a solar minimum.  See 2008, 1996, 1985

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d rather it be raining than be 100 like this week. Seems that’s our choice these days. I’m also tired of watching all the trees die. 

I think it's time for Jim to give up the ghost on the whole cold steppe climate thing happening here with bone dry, sunny 75/40 spreads all summer long.

If there's wall to wall sunshine between May and September it's probably going to be hot now. Seems fairly obvious. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

when summer started

nooooo not this conversation again.

 

I'm excited for the -0.04ºF departures in OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM, and FMA. Who cares about snow if it is just going to be sloppy and gloomy. Also who cares about wind, or anything else in life. Life has no meaning as it is. Entropy comes for us all. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure when rain became so exciting on this forum.  I do want at least a slightly wet October, because it bodes well for winter.

That’s for September. Lol

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

I'm excited for the -0.04ºF departures in OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM, and FMA. Who cares about snow if it is just going to be sloppy and gloomy. Also who cares about wind, or anything else in life. Life has no meaning as it is. Entropy comes for us all. 

I am Jack's broken heart. 

[fubario]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

I'm excited for the -0.04ºF departures in OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM, and FMA. Who cares about snow if it is just going to be sloppy and gloomy. Also who cares about wind, or anything else in life. Life has no meaning as it is. Entropy comes for us all. 

My reaction 98% of the time after reading your posts

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like I can put away the air conditioners next week.   

I’ve made that mistake in the past. I’m waiting two weeks prior to Canadian Thanksgiving before removing them at the earliest. If ensembles are hinting at abnormal warmth with that timeframe—the portable ACs stay up. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile on the solar activity front.  At least we are still running below cycle 23 which was the one at the turn of the century.  I'm disappointed this cycle has gotten as high as it has though.  I was hoping this would become a grand minimum so we could finally see if a very inactive sun would cause global cooling or not.  Looks like we may have to wait a LONG time to find out.

Speak for yourself. I enjoy getting to see the Aurora Borealis.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

Tim?

It was always a matter of time that the two extremist philosophies would go so far they’d go all the way around the preference wheel and meet on the other side, becoming indistinguishable. Kinda like Hitler and Stalin.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

I’ve made that mistake in the past. I’m waiting two weeks prior to Canadian Thanksgiving before removing them at the earliest. If ensembles are hinting at abnormal warmth with that timeframe—the portable ACs stay up. 

I generally don’t mind the house being 75-80F.  I think it’ll be safe after Sunday. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

I’ve made that mistake in the past. I’m waiting two weeks prior to Canadian Thanksgiving before removing them at the earliest. If ensembles are hinting at abnormal warmth with that timeframe—the portable ACs stay up. 

The person who won’t leave the house unless temps are 20 degrees above average has AC? In Southwest British Columbia??

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Can you explain why you think the solar cycle would be more than a rounding error? The difference between a strong and weak solar maximum is like 0.1 W/m^2 of forcing. And it's pretty well accepted that the climate sensitivity parameter somewhere around 0.5-0.75 deg C per 1 W/m^2. If it did matter, why doesn't the planet appreciably cool during solar minimums? 

It has more to do with low solar cycles causing a more amplified wave train.  For some reason the Little Ice Age (during the Maunder minimum) had more amplification of the oceanic ridges which resulted in more cold over the continents.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

A carrington event would kill a mechanical engine? In that scenario, I agree. It would be bad.... everywhere. 

Thanks to every possible device under the sun now containing a hidden computer, yes, they could be vulnerable. Whether or not they would get killed is a different matter. It takes lack of shielding and/or long enough lead-in wires to collect enough voltage to fry things.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

We get it. You are Sun Wizard now.

Maybe he will become a liberal Democrat next?

[MossMan]

Just cleared up! Calendar summer has been saved! 

[Tyler Mode]

GEFS cooler for Friday.  Euro sticks with a hotter day.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF shows 7 straight max temps above 80 for SEA coming up.  Not totally wild about that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

GEFS cooler for Friday.  Euro sticks with a hotter day.

The 96 for today is obviously erroneous.  

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thanks to every possible device under the sun now containing a hidden computer, yes, they could be vulnerable. Whether or not they would get killed is a different matter. It takes lack of shielding and/or long enough lead-in wires to collect enough voltage to fry things.

Just need one of these for a well! 

[Groundhog]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

A carrington event would kill a mechanical engine? In that scenario, I agree. It would be bad.... everywhere. 

Ironically, a 100+ year old Ford Model T would likely have a higher probability of working when a Carrington event happens again. Any mechanical engine is so computerized nowadays—even a diesel generator.  A steam engine would guaranteed be fine. Those guys at antique tractor and steam engine clubs might be the only ones with viable but slow transportation. 

The auroras at night would be incredible, but we would all be back in the 1700s. It would devastate our lives. I had a type of neurosurgery in 2012 called DBS. I wonder if such an event could potentially harm me by just walking outside—same with anyone with pacemakers. Even holding in my hands and turning on an electric coffee grinder causes some minor interference giving me an uncomfortable popping sensation in my right ear. It may sound crazy, but I have thought about where and how would I hunker down in such a solar storm more than rising seas or temperatures. Our technological advancements are incredible yet so brittle. We’ve been so brow-beaten with climate change stuff over the past three decades, it is a paradigm shift to consider what threats from nature are both serious and probable.