September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got the years mixed up so I deleted my last post. Here is 2017 up here! 

Convergence zone and north can do well in early Nov.

[StormchaserChuck1]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

and agree we want weak La/neutral over here if its not Strong La.  pass on medium La

Not enough data

[Phishy Wx]

47 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Looks snowy

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-update-more-snow-for-united-states-canada-less-europe-fa/

85-86 huh?

[Slushy Inch]

52 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Looks snowy

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-update-more-snow-for-united-states-canada-less-europe-fa/

Cansips is out. Euro monthlies should be out in a few days.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, YahRaEl said:

Looks snowy

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-update-more-snow-for-united-states-canada-less-europe-fa/

One of the only years I've seen everyone going for a good winter for us.  There is more to it than just La Nina as well.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

85-86 huh?

That list of year doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

One of the only years I've seen everyone going for a good winter for us.  There is more to it than just La Nina as well.

The SW, US heat dome doesn't usually roll over until February.. maybe a slight bit of concern because ENSO is so close to neutral? I mean, they have been breaking the records by a lot there, so it's a pretty good data point. PDO has been really high on the correlation list for the last 4-5 Winter's, so that it's near -3 is probably good for you guys (whether it's something else being the cause or not). 

[Phishy Wx]

Order me up one of these please

 

[TacomaWx]

Flying home from Hawaii tomorrow evening. Has been pretty awesome here will miss it. Looks like it got down to 42 this morning at home…fairly chilly for late September but it is fall after all. 

[Phishy Wx]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The SW, US heat dome doesn't usually roll over until February.. maybe a slight bit of concern because ENSO is so close to neutral? I mean, they have been breaking the records by a lot there, so it's a pretty good data point. PDO has been really high on the correlation list for the last 4-5 Winter's, so that it's near -3 is probably good for you guys (whether it's something else being the cause or not). 

Actually winters with a strong temperature gradient from a cold NW to warm SW can be very good here.  Northern areas tend to be a lot snowier than when the cold settles in over the entire West.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Order me up one of these please

 

I wonder if that snowfall anoamly is inches or standard deviation (sigma).  If it's the latter that would be great!

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I wonder if that snowfall anoamly is inches or standard deviation (sigma).  If it's the latter that would be great!

I think the latter

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Flying home from Hawaii tomorrow evening. Has been pretty awesome here will miss it. Looks like it got down to 42 this morning at home…fairly chilly for late September but it is fall after all. 

Ended up with 67/38 here today.  Pretty crisp much of the day.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with 67/38 here today.  Pretty crisp much of the day.

63/34 IMBY

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wonder if that snowfall anoamly is inches or standard deviation (sigma).  If it's the latter that would be great!

sigma

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cansips is out. Euro monthlies should be out in a few days.

That model has January being our best month.  Dec and Feb are good too!

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Dp of 35 at SEA.  Some places should get pretty chilly tonight.

[Slushy Inch]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That model has January being our best month.  Dec and Feb are good too!

 

 

Cfs run is good for Dec.

[Deweydog]

Temperature is DROPPING here.

[Meatyorologist]

It's actually pretty enticing that nearly all climate models are gunning for some sort of extended -PNA pattern with Arctic air down to Oregon sometime between mid November and the end of February. I've never seen such a strong signal for that this early in the Fall, let alone any dominant winter weather pattern, even warm ones. Makes me wonder a little bit...

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually winters with a strong temperature gradient from a cold NW to warm SW can be very good here.  Northern areas tend to be a lot snowier than when the cold settles in over the entire West.

I've seen that it could correlate with +PNA activity going forward. Will be interesting to see if that happens, because the -PNA has been so strong this year. It actually started right when the ENSO subsurface went negative in mid February, and the subsurface was in "Moderate Nina" range all year until recently. Now the subsurface has neutralized, and there isn't really a -PNA for the next 15 or so days.. 

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's actually pretty enticing that nearly all climate models are gunning for some sort of extended -PNA pattern with Arctic air down to Oregon sometime between mid November and the end of February. I've never seen such a strong signal for that this early in the Fall, let alone any dominant winter weather pattern, even warm ones. Makes me wonder a little bit...

Zero expectations is the only way

[SpaceRace22]

lmao can you imagine

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 38 this morning,  Actually felt cold this morning ,and had to kick the furnace on.  Nothing like the smell of burning dust bunnies with the heat getting kicked on for the first time in about 6 months. 

72 hours from now I will be in 80+ degree humid as hell weather.  At least the evenings should be on the cooler side.

[iFred]

50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's actually pretty enticing that nearly all climate models are gunning for some sort of extended -PNA pattern with Arctic air down to Oregon sometime between mid November and the end of February. I've never seen such a strong signal for that this early in the Fall, let alone any dominant winter weather pattern, even warm ones. Makes me wonder a little bit...

I'm keeping my fig trees out all winter. I doubt we get under 29º for anything more than a couple dozen hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

lmao can you imagine

I love it. Locking in now. 

[Deweydog]

ALERT

[Mapletree]

66.5/42.1°F spread here today with mostly sunny skies

This was a spectacular autumn day. I was comfy in a t-shirt. 

[SpaceRace22]

lol, not only did the Extended EPS continue the pepto sightings and amp up the snow signal, but the Extended GEFS just gave us our first cotton candy sighting of the winter (27" at YVR on 11/1 ). I was just joking with these, but it's hard not to be at least a little intrigued now at both the signal for something in November, plus the entire winter at large.

[TacomaWx]

Insanely new and good time here on the big island. Hoping to catch a glimpse of the A3 comet early tomorrow morning in the national park as well looking east over the coast.

 The stars out here are just incredible one of the best places in the world to see the night sky. Got to swim with manta rays on the first night…saw lots of sea turtles, eels, tropical fish, rare birds and other fun stuff! 

[Slushy Inch]

31 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

lol, not only did the Extended EPS continue the pepto sightings and amp up the snow signal, but the Extended GEFS just gave us our first cotton candy sighting of the winter (27" at YVR on 11/1 ). I was just joking with these, but it's hard not to be at least a little intrigued now at both the signal for something in November, plus the entire winter at large.

Makes more sense to be looking at the extended 500 mb.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Zero expectations is the only way

Not with a year like this.  We are on a pretty good roll as far as almost every recent winter having something decent, and now we have at least weak cold ENSO with a +QBO.  I'm in for at least one good round of cold and snow this winter.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Makes more sense to be looking at the extended 500 mb.

yeah....but it's pretty hard to ignore the fairly impressive signal showing up on the ECMWF weeklies already.  A November cold snap wouldn't be shocking this year.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Insanely new and good time here on the big island. Hoping to catch a glimpse of the A3 comet early tomorrow morning in the national park as well looking east over the coast.

 The stars out here are just incredible one of the best places in the world to see the night sky. Got to swim with manta rays on the first night…saw lots of sea turtles, eels, tropical fish, rare birds and other fun stuff! 

The big island is pretty cool.  I really liked it the time I went there.  Truly amazing how the flora is so different from one side of the island vs the other.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

I'm keeping my fig trees out all winter. I doubt we get under 29º for anything more than a couple dozen hours.

I hear Everett has some pretty healthy fig production these days.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just don't go to Honolulu. All the other islands are cool. Oahu was too developed. I spent my time in the Cheesecake factory the whole time. Kauai is my favorite. 

[snow_wizard]

The subsurface is still pretty chilly for the Equatorial Pacific.  Still a chance this Nina could get some traction if it hasn't already.  Too bad we are getting conflicting numbers from various sources.

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The subsurface is still pretty chilly for the Equatorial Pacific.  Still a chance this Nina could get some traction if it hasn't already.  Too bad we are getting conflicting numbers from various sources.

Yeah, they have <-5 anomalies, while TAO/Triton has nothing <-1

They also have warmth in the western subsurface, which TAO doesn't have. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Atlantic Hurricane season not going down without a fight.. this is even vs '04-23 climate.