September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I can see it happening.  I'm going to say 4 more this season.

I guess the storm on Kirk's heels has a good chance to become Major too.  Kirk is really getting its act together very far south btw. This one could peak pretty highly. 

[High Desert Mathew]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Insanely new and good time here on the big island. Hoping to catch a glimpse of the A3 comet early tomorrow morning in the national park as well looking east over the coast.

 The stars out here are just incredible one of the best places in the world to see the night sky. Got to swim with manta rays on the first night…saw lots of sea turtles, eels, tropical fish, rare birds and other fun stuff! 

Ya but, did it snow? 

[High Desert Mathew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

yeah....but it's pretty hard to ignore the fairly impressive signal showing up on the ECMWF weeklies already.  A November cold snap wouldn't be shocking this year.

Let’s hope not. We need a warm November. But more importantly, a wet October. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya but, did it snow? 

You can drive right up to an astronomical observatory that averages a few inches of snow a year.. the last few years they have had blizzard warnings posted there. 

[High Desert Mathew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The subsurface is still pretty chilly for the Equatorial Pacific.  Still a chance this Nina could get some traction if it hasn't already.  Too bad we are getting conflicting numbers from various sources.

 

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The subsurface is still pretty chilly for the Equatorial Pacific.  Still a chance this Nina could get some traction if it hasn't already.  Too bad we are getting conflicting numbers from various sources.

Keep it weak!!!! Or get the traction and start turning neutral like 2016!!!!! In Phil we trust. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

 

Keep it weak!!!! Or get the traction and start turning neutral like 2016!!!!! In Phil we trust. 

The physics of La Nina argue that you want it Strong, the stronger the better.  There are a lot of other variables also at play that may taint a handful of samples. 

In the early 2000s, everyone out East wanted Weak La Nina's, because the composite was cold. Then we had 5/5 warm Weak Nina's since 2005. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

no spiking the ball in fall please

Spiking the ball preserves clock and can be important if it's not 4th down.

I could definitely see us fumbling or throwing an interception close to the goal line tho. Or calling a timeout partway through the 3rd quarter right before it.

[High Desert Mathew]

14 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The physics of La Nina argue that you want it Strong, the stronger the better.  There are a lot of other variables also at play that may taint a handful of samples. 

In the early 2000s, everyone out East wanted Weak La Nina's, because the composite was cold. Then we had 5/5 warm Weak Nina's since 2005. 

Just going off 2016-2017 logic. Small sample sizes all around I know. So I’ll take what I can get. 

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The physics of La Nina argue that you want it Strong, the stronger the better.  There are a lot of other variables also at play that may taint a handful of samples. 

In the early 2000s, everyone out East wanted Weak La Nina's, because the composite was cold. Then we had 5/5 warm Weak Nina's since 2005. 

The turn of the century La Nina was awful for pretty much everyone.  I think that is the most irate I've ever gotten about weather.  What a waste.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Just going off 2016-2017 logic. Small sample sizes all around I know. So I’ll take what I can get. 

I think weak Nina's do have a tendency to get very blocky.  That can certainly make things fun.

[StormchaserChuck1]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The turn of the century La Nina was awful for pretty much everyone.  I think that is the most irate I've ever gotten about weather.  What a waste.

00-01 ended up being a good Winter in the east. I also had a surprise 20" snowstorm on jan 25, 2000 that was suppose to be flurries that morning (hours before)! That was one of my favorite storms all time. Consecutive La Nina's tend to be colder during the end, or years after. They have a pretty good way to set the stage for some colder weather. That this year will make 4/5 La Nina years makes me interested to see how the next few Winter's go. Sometimes the predominant pattern at the time is just too much to overcome,, I remember the turn of the century, there were a lot of unfavorable "global warming" factors at play. I feel like we've had some cold in Canada the last few Winters, even going back to 07-08. The pattern is more -PNA now imo. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think weak Nina's do have a tendency to get very blocky.  That can certainly make things fun.

Why though? I think they just occurred more during the decadal -NAO time. Weak El Nino's have also been blocky.. so people are like, give me a Weak Nino or a Weak Nina lol

[snow drift]

27 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The physics of La Nina argue that you want it Strong, the stronger the better.  There are a lot of other variables also at play that may taint a handful of samples. 

In the early 2000s, everyone out East wanted Weak La Nina's, because the composite was cold. Then we had 5/5 warm Weak Nina's since 2005. 

Most of our coldest winters are neutrals. Stronger isn't always better, but it does almost always lead to the dreaded cold spring.

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Most of our coldest winters are neutrals. Stronger isn't always better, but it does almost always lead to the dreaded cold spring.

You guys do better in -PNA? ENSO correlates with the N. Pacific High. I think it may have just been bad timing for you guys historically. Sometimes it will take years to move the jet stream north or south. 

Here's minus Strong Nino's though.. I see your point Strong events haven't necessarily been great for you guys. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

no spiking the ball in fall please

Don’t worry bud, I’ve already removed @Meatyorologist from the forum as a warning for anyone who gets too enthusiastic for what is really not all that great weather. As we transition into a gardening lifestyle forum, we (as you have probably suggested in the past) will limit meteorological discussion to those who have a strong understanding and academic background in both child psychology and snowmapology. @SeanNyberg will help better align the community with our new and mature expectations.

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry bud, I’ve already removed @Meatyorologist from the forum as a warning for anyone who gets too enthusiastic for what is really not all that great weather. As we transition into a gardening lifestyle forum, we (as you have probably suggested in the past) will limit meteorological discussion to those who have a strong understanding and academic background in both child psychology and snowmapology. @SeanNyberg will help better align the community with our new and mature expectations.

Winter's during election years 

[Meatyorologist]

52 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry bud, I’ve already removed @Meatyorologist from the forum as a warning for anyone who gets too enthusiastic for what is really not all that great weather. As we transition into a gardening lifestyle forum, we (as you have probably suggested in the past) will limit meteorological discussion to those who have a strong understanding and academic background in both child psychology and snowmapology. @SeanNyberg will help better align the community with our new and mature expectations.

I crawled my way back up from the pits of HELL you banished me to. Satan seems uninterested with the PNW this winter. Sorry Sean...

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

You guys do better in -PNA? ENSO correlates with the N. Pacific High. I think it may have just been bad timing for you guys historically. Sometimes it will take years to move the jet stream north or south. 

Here's minus Strong Nino's though.. I see your point Strong events haven't necessarily been great for you guys. 

1948-49 is the coldest winter here. 1978-79 is the 2nd coldest. December 1983 is the coldest December. November 1985 is the coldest November. February 2019 was colder than February 1989. January 1950 was cold, but so was January 1937, January 1949, January 1957, January 1969, and January 1979. Of the last 5 years mentioned, none of those years were strong la niñas.

[Meatyorologist]

8 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

lmao can you imagine

That would put Seattle right on the boundary line where Arctic air meets and Pacific moisture deposits. January 1950.

[Phishy Wx]

another 34 IMBY this morning

[MossMan]

Currently 45.

Apparently summer returned in 2009. Guess I was so excited that I even liked my own FB post. 

Edited October 1, 2024 by MossMan

[AmunRAEL]

Chilly this morning 

34° Mcchord 

38° Spanaway 

43° Eastside Tacoma 

[LowerGarfield]

22 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We hit 38 this morning. Our first freeze date historically was in late September, but now that's been pushed back to mid-October due to climate change. In 2016 we did not have a freeze until early December, which was also the date of our first measurable snowfall. In 2022 we did not have a freeze until November 2nd, which was also our first measurable snowfall and earliest snowfall since I've lived here. 

We had snow Nov 1st or 2nd and due to air temperatures we had it before our first freeze.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, snow drift said:

1948-49 is the coldest winter here. 1978-79 is the 2nd coldest. December 1983 is the coldest December. November 1985 is the coldest November. February 2019 was colder than February 1989. January 1950 was cold, but so was January 1937, January 1949, January 1957, January 1969, and January 1979. Of the last 5 years mentioned, none of those years were strong la niñas.

1949-50 was a pretty strong Nina, and 1955-56 was also. VERY notable cold both of those winters.  Then of course you also have 1988-89.  Top tier cold waves in all of those.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, YahRaEl said:

Chilly this morning 

34° Mcchord 

38° Spanaway 

43° Eastside Tacoma 

It dropped to 41 here which is actually a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

7 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Winter's during election years 

That's almost as weird as the 8-9 winter thing here.  Many of these were actually very cold winters like 1948-49, 1956-57, 1964-65, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1984-85, 1988-89, 1992-93, 2008-09, 2016-17.  Also have 1996-97 which was very snowy for Seattle.

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse would have despised this sports reference

Unsportsmanlike conduct

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

1949-50 was a pretty strong Nino, and 1955-56 was also. VERY notable cold both of those winters.  Then of course you also have 1988-89.  Top tier cold waves in all of those.

Nina.

[Timmy]

Euro hinted at this. Now gfs is as well. Bringing this next system mush further south into the pdx metro.

Edited October 1, 2024 by Timmy

[T-Town]

Looks like Thursday is the day to fertilize the lawn. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nina.

Oops.  Fixed it!

[TT-SEA]

Cool clouds this morning...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

October Thread

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Cool clouds this morning...

those are Conspiracy clouds. rare breed

[Slushy Inch]