September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

74 with sunshine and a lil smoke. AQI not too bad tho.

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was always a matter of time that the two extremist philosophies would go so far they’d go all the way around the preference wheel and meet on the other side, becoming indistinguishable. Kinda like Hitler and Stalin.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just because the post went over your head doesn’t mean it was angry  

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF shows 7 straight max temps above 80 for SEA coming up.  Not totally wild about that.

This is what happens when we get sunny patterns now, Jim. Nine times out of 10 we’re gonna torch. The kind of dry, cool warm season weather you’re always hoping for hardly ever happens anymore.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Jesse is the extremist. Always cheers for extreme cold anomalies year round. I cheer for anomalous and/or interesting weather.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Jesse is the extremist. Always cheers for extreme cold anomalies year round. I cheer for anomalous and/or interesting weather.

Nothing you post is even worth taking seriously.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maybe he will become a liberal Democrat next?

He does seem to be hoping for a blue wave in the extended forecast. 

[High Desert Mat?]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nothing you post is even worth taking seriously.

Awe. He found his new Tim. 

[TacomaWx]

Not sure why it isn’t well known that Jim hates rain and is the king of pseudosciences. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure why it isn’t well known that Jim hates rain and is the king of pseudosciences. 

Jim used to like rain to a reasonable degree. Even up until a few years ago it would be pretty hard to imagine him hoping away a cooler and wetter patter in favor of hot ridging, especially moving into fall. My theory is that his frustration with not being in a position to move east of the Cascades has reached some sort of boiling point, where he needs to pretend we’re having weather like they would as a way to cope or else he’s going to suffer some sort of mental breakdown.

But yeah the pseudoscience stuff hasn’t ever changed much.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Legit rain next Wed on the GFS, then back to sun. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Legit rain next Wed on the GFS, then back to sun. 

EURO pushes it to thursday/friday and is not as bullish

[Cascadia_Wx]

Got some pretty stunning views of the Cascades and Sierras flying in this morning. We had a layover in LAX.

Yosemite valley stood out plainly. The Cascades were incredibly smoky though. Way way worse than the Sierras. I was thinking about some folks on here who so confidently stated that smoke season was over when I saw these views. The active fire in the first pic is by Diamond Peak. Then the Sisters, Jefferson and Hood.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Legit rain next Wed on the GFS, then back to sun. 

I miss being able to puke

[iFred]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It has more to do with low solar cycles causing a more amplified wave train.  For some reason the Little Ice Age (during the Maunder minimum) had more amplification of the oceanic ridges which resulted in more cold over the continents.

Climate change has you covered there pal.

Weaker polar jets.
Later freeze overs of the Bering and Okhotsk.
Stronger ridging in south east.
Stronger and warmer Kuroshio leading to a smaller subpolar gyre.

Per my McDonalds napkin math, that alone should help drive stronger winter Pacific ridges which will help drawn down cooler air, then the added blocking in the Gulf of Mexico. We are not even including the impacts of a shutdown of the North Atlantic or the wild card of a blue water Arctic.

Yeah, sure, climate change will probably bring the developing world to the brink of famine, destroy the Sahel, cause Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh to collapse, push China to the brink over food and water, cause violent revolutions across Latin America, and your favorite, flood the western world with refugees, but hey, maybe we can get those -0.04 departures down to a solid -0.1.  

In all seriousness though, from a Western Washington low lands weather lover, we are EXTREMELY LUCKY to be in a position that our climate will become a bit more continental before The Blob goes all Persian Gulf on us and sous vide's Puget Sound's orcas. 

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure why it isn’t well known that Jim hates rain and is the king of pseudosciences. 

I have absolutely no idea what the last part is all about.  I just don't like excessive gloom out of season.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Climate change has you covered there pal.

Weaker polar jets.
Later freeze overs of the Bering and Okhotsk.
Stronger ridging in south east.
Stronger and warmer Kuroshio leading to a smaller subpolar gyre.

Per my McDonalds napkin math, that alone should help drive stronger winter Pacific ridges which will help drawn down cooler air, then the added blocking in the Gulf of Mexico. We are not even including the impacts of a shutdown of the North Atlantic or the wild card of a blue water Arctic.

Yeah, sure, climate change will probably bring the developing world to the brink of famine, destroy the Sahel, cause Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh to collapse, push China to the brink over food and water, cause violent revolutions across Latin America, and your favorite, flood the western world with refugees, but hey, maybe we can get those -0.04 departures down to a solid -0.1.  

In all seriousness though, from a Western Washington low lands weather lover, we are EXTREMELY LUCKY to be in a position that our climate will become a bit more continental before The Blob goes all Persian Gulf on us and sous vide's Puget Sound's orcas. 

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I miss being able to puke

Yeah....what is up with that?

[snow_wizard]

Up to 92 just east of PDX at 1000 feet.  Maybe that GEFS 96 isn't so out to lunch after all.

[Phishy Wx]

[snow_wizard]

BTW I think this year's Atlantic Hurricane season is a cautionary tale about trying to nail down exactly what the details of climate change might be.  Looks like some really bad egg on the face for a lot of forecasters as of right now.  Over the years I have seen some theories completely reverse on what scientists think the effects might be.  Being born before all of the climate change hype allows me to look at it a bit differently than people who have been steeped in the prevailing narrative their entire lives.  Mother Nature is going to do what she wants. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW I think this year's Atlantic Hurricane season is a cautionary tale about trying to nail down exactly what the details of climate change might be.  Looks like some really bad egg on the face for a lot of forecasters as of right now.  Over the years I have seen some theories completely reverse on what scientists think the effects might be.  Being born before all of the climate change hype allows me to look at it a bit differently than people who have been steeped in the prevailing narrative their entire lives.  Mother Nature is going to do what she wants. 

Sure this isn’t just you pretending? Maybe you even have yourself fooled at this point!

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sure this isn’t just you pretending? Maybe you even have yourself fooled at this point!

Well....they said it was going to be this huge out of control season, because of human fueled climate change, and Mother Nature figured out a way to make liars out of them.  I just think the mainstream thinking is so one dimensional on the issue.  We are part of infinitely complicated universe and people think just CO2 alone is going to have the final say with an unknown number of other variables at play that could yield a completely unexpected outcome.  One problem is most people only base what climate normal is on what they have seen with their own eyes.  hat is such a tiny fraction of the real picture as you well know.  As I've said many times in the past....climate scientists have stated the weather is only as good as it is now about 5% of time.  The other 95% it is much more hostile and usually colder at least in the last one million years.

I'm kind of tired of your armchair psychoanalyzing of me BTW.  I suspect you have some real issues yourself.

[Groundhog]

54 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I miss being able to puke

Bush Sr. in Japan can help with that. 

[Tyler Mode]

9.4.24 245 PM

The east wind is coming...not much, but it'll rapidly raise temps and dry out the humidity.

It's currently 84 in Battle Ground, but 95 in Yacolt and 91 on Larch Mountain.  24 hour temp/humidity changes are wild.

[Randyc321]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW I think this year's Atlantic Hurricane season is a cautionary tale about trying to nail down exactly what the details of climate change might be.  Looks like some really bad egg on the face for a lot of forecasters as of right now.  Over the years I have seen some theories completely reverse on what scientists think the effects might be.  Being born before all of the climate change hype allows me to look at it a bit differently than people who have been steeped in the prevailing narrative their entire lives.  Mother Nature is going to do what she wants. 

Dude, we we both turn(ed) 60 this year and guess what it's still warming up, regardless.  "Steeped" is a ridiculous buzzy kind of word for information promulgation that you disagree with.  You skirt the political crap way too much on the main forum.  Your ignorant attitude has severely affected the amount of respect you had from other posters here, and continues to do so as the years go on.  What I can't figure out is why you are not capable of understanding we have affected the globe and atmosphere.  What is the deal? What do you fear losing if you admit that?

PS  I don't give a crap about downvotes but have fun.

[Tenochtitlan]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well....they said it was going to be this huge out of control season, because of human fueled climate change, and Mother Nature figured out a way to make liars out of them.  I just think the mainstream thinking is so one dimensional on the issue.  We are part of infinitely complicated universe and people think just CO2 alone is going to have the final say with an unknown number of other variables at play that could yield a completely unexpected outcome.  One problem is most people only base what climate normal is on what they have seen with their own eyes.  hat is such a tiny fraction of the real picture as you well know.  As I've said many times in the past....climate scientists have stated the weather is only as good as it is now about 5% of time.  The other 95% it is much more hostile and usually colder at least in the last one million years.

I'm kind of tired of your armchair psychoanalyzing of me BTW.  I suspect you have some real issues yourself.

This isn’t really the “gotcha” you think it is. As far as I’ve seen, climate studies don’t tend to predict a huge increase in hurricane numbers with ocean warming. I actually have read that number of storms/season may even decline…but intensity of those storms that form will be higher on average. Rainfall is also supposed to increase with storms stalling more. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Matt needs to chime in with a comment reminding us that he thinks EVERYONE participating in this discussion is dumber than him. Hopefully soon.

[the_convergence_zone]

Nice to get some sun after the last couple cloudy days, but it's a little on the humid side. 77/59 currently at KSEA, but it feels cooler than it would when the sun angle is higher in summer. Just wonderful that there is no major fire activity at all in Washington at the moment, although some smoke might creep in over the next few days. 

Amazingly, January 2 is still the day with the worst AQI of the year at Seattle's Beacon Hill station. There hasn't been a single day above 50 since March. 
(edit: looks like 7/5 is missing, which I'm guessing would be the worst day of the year)

[iFred]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW I think this year's Atlantic Hurricane season is a cautionary tale about trying to nail down exactly what the details of climate change might be.  Looks like some really bad egg on the face for a lot of forecasters as of right now.  Over the years I have seen some theories completely reverse on what scientists think the effects might be.  Being born before all of the climate change hype allows me to look at it a bit differently than people who have been steeped in the prevailing narrative their entire lives.  Mother Nature is going to do what she wants. 

Yeah, but someone gave Mother Nature PCP and told her that the skulls of puppies are filled with grape jelly just before they pushed her out of their van parked at @MossMan's place.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow so far a +18F from yesterday IMBY. Low of 54F and then a straight rip up.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Kind of a top tier ridge if PDX manages two triple deckers.

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Matt needs to chime in with a comment reminding us that he thinks EVERYONE participating in this discussion is dumber than him. Hopefully soon.

I thought that was your role? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I thought that was your role? 

Being his protective little lapdog is definitely yours!

[Deweydog]

44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Matt needs to chime in with a comment reminding us that he thinks EVERYONE participating in this discussion is dumber than him. Hopefully soon.

You’re the reason I don’t eat academia nuts.

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Being his protective little lapdog is definitely yours!

You're the only one nipping at ankles today.

Go outside and enjoy the fourth to last false end of summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

You're the only one nipping at ankles today.

Go outside and enjoy the fourth to last false end of summer.

Why are posts like I make only ok when you make them?

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Kind of a top tier ridge if PDX manages two triple deckers.

 

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Record breaking ridge, actually

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Why are posts like I make only ok when you make them?

Because it’s good to be king.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive inversion today.  Upper 70s to low 80s in the Puget Sound Basin and low 90s in the foothills.