September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Tenochtitlan]

I would take Tucson weather over the Deep South, but not Phoenix. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Yeah, the enforcement thing just seems to be a weapon for people have a little too much time on their hand. Thankfully Washington state RCW 64.38 features some rules concerning board enforcement and a process for violations that is seemingly never followed, like a hearing and a posted printed notice.

Here are all of the violations that I have racked up in the 12 hours that I first complained through my wife's facebook account about the overzealous light sensitive amish nazi who took the blurry photo of my front yard at 5:48 in the morning:
- regrading my front yard without both prior approval from the HOA and application not performed by an HOA approved soil engineer
- regrading my flowerbeds without prior approval from the HOA and the landscaping and garden committee
- removing bushes and flowers that were originally with the house without prior approval and without the consent of a property management approved certified gardener
- the use of exterior lighting, including porch, patio, and decorative, between the hours of 10pm and 7am
- the use of my driveway to park vehicles
- the use of my garage for anything other than minor storage and parking my vehicles
- the addition of an air conditioner without the collective approval of 67% of my shared street neighbors and not performed by an HOA approved heating and cooling company
- consulting with a utility (Ziply) to use Everett managed utility conduit to run fiber to my house
- expressing discontent about the HOA on a public forum
- the operation of a business entity at my residence
- lights from my home office (lots of monitors) are visible from the street past 10pm
- a nuisance in radio pollution brought on by my mesh wifi network
- the use of a weather station on my fence line as the station exceeds four feet from the ground and did not receive the prior written approvals
- a wifi network called "EATSHITJAMESYOUCANTMAKEMEMOVE" which may or may not exist on my property
- thought crimes, probably

Ok the last two haven't been reported on yet.

Sounds like living in the Soviet Union!  I would die in a place like that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Where's Timothy? I hope he's ok.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also, hopefully Rob will be back soon.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Yeah, the enforcement thing just seems to be a weapon for people have a little too much time on their hand. Thankfully Washington state RCW 64.38 features some rules concerning board enforcement and a process for violations that is seemingly never followed, like a hearing and a posted printed notice.

Here are all of the violations that I have racked up in the 12 hours that I first complained through my wife's facebook account about the overzealous light sensitive amish nazi who took the blurry photo of my front yard at 5:48 in the morning:
- regrading my front yard without both prior approval from the HOA and application not performed by an HOA approved soil engineer
- regrading my flowerbeds without prior approval from the HOA and the landscaping and garden committee
- removing bushes and flowers that were originally with the house without prior approval and without the consent of a property management approved certified gardener
- the use of exterior lighting, including porch, patio, and decorative, between the hours of 10pm and 7am
- the use of my driveway to park vehicles
- the use of my garage for anything other than minor storage and parking my vehicles
- the addition of an air conditioner without the collective approval of 67% of my shared street neighbors and not performed by an HOA approved heating and cooling company
- consulting with a utility (Ziply) to use Everett managed utility conduit to run fiber to my house
- expressing discontent about the HOA on a public forum
- the operation of a business entity at my residence
- lights from my home office (lots of monitors) are visible from the street past 10pm
- a nuisance in radio pollution brought on by my mesh wifi network
- the use of a weather station on my fence line as the station exceeds four feet from the ground and did not receive the prior written approvals
- a wifi network called "EATSHITJAMESYOUCANTMAKEMEMOVE" which may or may not exist on my property
- thought crimes, probably

Ok the last two haven't been reported on yet.

mine is NachoWiFi

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You are correct in that the direct radiative forcing from the stratospheric H2O could not have produced the observed warming/moistening of the troposphere.

However, it could have (and likely did) alter the mass circulation(s) and deep tropical stability. Perhaps just enough to allow for the backwards east-to-west development of El Niño immediately following the 3-year niña (first time on record that has happened), which released the heat stored in the IPWP en masse. Which is what caused the extreme warming spike and water vapor flux into the troposphere.

Can’t prove it, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that an unprecedented ENSO evolution occurred within 1-year of an unprecedented volcanic eruption (w/rt our period of records, at least). I don’t like coincidences in general..Occam’s razor seldom fails.

Exactly the point I have been trying to make.  This stuff is all so infinitely complicated there is no way to be certain of anything.  I think the butterfly effect is in play here.  That eruption of Hunga Tonga was one hell of a butterfly.

The thing that drives me crazy about the vast majority of the man caused global warming crowd is they are absolutely close minded on other possibilities of what might be causing climate change.  It's very likely some of it is natural.  Certain in fact.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Where's Timothy? I hope he's ok.

He is.  He has been in the political forum quite a bit.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Where's Timothy? I hope he's ok.

He's fine. You'll find him making 5,000 variations of the same post in the political topic.

Kind of like Tim from a decade ago making posts about rain.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS looks pretty decent. Looks like we won’t be torching as much at least. Although I’m not a big fan of the control run in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looks pretty decent. Looks like we won’t be torching as much at least. Although I’m not a big fan of the control run in the long range.

If we aren't smashing monthly records we may as well move to Palm Springs. 

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Exactly the point I have been trying to make.  This stuff is all so infinitely complicated there is no way to be certain of anything.  I think the butterfly effect is in play here.  That eruption of Hunga Tonga was one hell of a butterfly.

The thing that drives me crazy about the vast majority of the man caused global warming crowd is they are absolutely close minded on other possibilities of what might be causing climate change.  It's very likely some of it is natural.  Certain in fact.

There is no fuggin crowd. There is no war between two sides. The only conflict here is between apolitical scientific consensus and vested corporate interests.

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

He's fine. You'll find him making 5,000 variations of the same post in the political topic.

Kind of like Tim from a decade ago making posts about rain.

1 8 0

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[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And tack on another one! 90F

Enjoy them while they last. I think you’ll have trouble making it to 40 this year.

[Meatyorologist]

End of the 12z GFS has one of the cooler mid September troughs you'll see in today's climate era.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

That is flat out hot!

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

End of the 12z GFS has one of the cooler mid September troughs you'll see in today's climate era.

Even the trough at day 5 on the 18z is nice.  I like seeing this kind of stuff. 

That trough on the 12z is quite something.  6000 heights off the coast behind it.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Even the trough at day 5 on the 18z is nice.  I like seeing this kind of stuff. 

better than ridging for sure

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

better than ridging for sure

I've got to say it's pretty surprising seeing almost no rain on the models with the amount of troughing in the 4 to 10 day period.

[MossMan]

Well I decided to turn my broken jetski lift tragedy from last weekend into a fun Friday off since the jetski is parked in my driveway. Went to a couple of lakes I had never been on before, started out at Big Lake this morning (first pic) but found it a bit boring and dirty so I went up to Lake Cavanaugh (all the other pics) Oh it’s spectacular…Just like when it snow up there! I would move up there in a heartbeat. 

Back home now at my non HOA property…Thankfully as I’m sure they would force me to cut down Sick Phil! 
 

Edited September 6 by MossMan

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've got to say it's pretty surprising seeing almost no rain on the models with the amount of troughing in the 4 to 10 day period.

All NW flow and cold air advection, almost zero height drops due to baroclinically-induced low pressure. In a way it's a "pure trough", only there due to the cold airmass.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly overnight temps on the long range GFS.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I decided to turn my broken jetski lift tragedy from last weekend into a fun Friday off since the jetski is parked in my driveway. Went to a couple of lakes I had never been on before, started out at Big Lake this morning (first pic) but found it a bit boring and dirty so I went up to Lake Cavanaugh (all the other pics) Oh it’s spectacular…Just like when it snow up there! I would move up there in a heartbeat. 

Back home now at my non HOA property…Thankfully as I’m sure they would force me to cut down Sick Phil! 
 

how warm was lake cavanaugh? trying to convince our group of close friends to pool our funds and go in on a place there. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I decided to turn my broken jetski lift tragedy from last weekend into a fun Friday off since the jetski is parked in my driveway. Went to a couple of lakes I had never been on before, started out at Big Lake this morning (first pic) but found it a bit boring and dirty so I went up to Lake Cavanaugh (all the other pics) Oh it’s spectacular…Just like when it snow up there! I would move up there in a heartbeat. 

Back home now at my non HOA property…Thankfully as I’m sure they would force me to cut down Sick Phil! 
 

Lake Cavanaugh looks nice.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

All NW flow and cold air advection, almost zero height drops due to baroclinically-induced low pressure. In a way it's a "pure trough", only there due to the cold airmass.

I am just a sucker for troughs like that.  Put a foot of snow on the ground in the winter and then troughing like that.  Mmmmm.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Chilly overnight temps on the long range GFS.

This run of weather coming up looks amazing.  According to the ECMWF it's all downhill until Wednesday of next week.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I am just a sucker for troughs like that.  Put a foot of snow on the ground in the winter and then troughing like that.  Mmmmm.

These patterns are playing with fire though, literally... Prograde the weather pattern just 500 miles and we get a dry east wind event.

[Eugene-5SW]

31 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

I would complain about the heat and smoke here today, but it looks like my old neighborhood in the L.A. foothills had about a 112/90 day.

And for someone who lived through the bad old days of '70s and '80s L.A. smog, a 120 AQI is like a breath of fresh air!

[snow_wizard]

Almost getting chills looking at the 18z GFS.  Lots of chilly weather being shown with some Canadian flavor to it.

[Thermal Trough]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eugene /Springfield metro area is a smoky hellhole today and has the worst AQI of any metro area in the western lowlands.

120 AQI right now and getting worse. If this keeps up and more smoke keeps getting pumped in then we will have to start wearing gas masks.

It's even horribly smoky in the house.

Relief is on the way Tiger. You should be smoke free by Sunday.  

[Tyler Mode]

Nice inversion to develop overnight and trap more smoke!  Yay!

Only 90 here today, not bad.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hooray for Newport, where it's cold and foggy.

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

how warm was lake cavanaugh? trying to convince our group of close friends to pool our funds and go in on a place there. 

Felt just slightly cooler than Goodwin did a week ago and it was at 70 so my guess is upper 60’s!

[snow_wizard]

This has to be the dampest heat I've ever felt this time of year.  Very unusual.  

[Meatyorologist]

I think the Willamette valley may be in for a mini thunderstorm outbreak tonight!

[Thermal Trough]

12 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Hooray for Newport, where it's cold and foggy.

Live view from Newport!  

 

[Meatyorologist]

@TigerWoodsLibido view to the east?

[T-Town]

High of 86 earlier, down to 84 now. Much cooler than yesterday’s 93. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Lake Cavanaugh looks nice.  

It’s super nice!! And at 1,100ft they get clobbered with snow when we have lowish snow levels! 

Edited September 7 by MossMan

[Snownerd3000]