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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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Some dude started a bunch of fires along I 5 in Eugene. 

61BF69AB-98DF-4F16-A188-E45B3EB0F977.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Steady rain! (with occasional thunder).

Now that's what I call a microclimate! Severe clear and 90º here just down the street.

(yes, I know you're in Bend, but you didn't mention it in this post and your location says Eugene)

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4 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Now that's what I call a microclimate! Severe clear and 90º here just down the street.

(yes, I know you're in Bend, but you didn't mention it in this post and your location says Eugene)

It never ceases to amaze me how Bend can get thunderstorms with 17% humidity (37dp).

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4 hours ago, Groundhog said:

We couldn’t make it to Baker today, but here’s some pics from a year ago this weekend. We had just received the kids’ passports, so it was their first time in the US despite us only being 13 miles from the Sumas border crossing. (Crossed it dozens of times prior to having kids). 

IMG_3561.jpeg

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I did that hike 4 years ago. Very beautiful view the entire time.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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If Jesse is still camping at Three Creeks then he just got hit by a big storm. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Purdy!

When I was a kid, you could go over the border any time you wanted.  I can remember one time my older cousins decided to do that when we were all visiting our aunt in Everson.  They kind of looked like stoner types so the border agents completely tore the car apart looking for whatever.  When they didn't find anything they let us go through.  Fun times!

Great story about your cousin. When my folks lived in Junction City, OR, I remember getting back into Canada Monday, September 3, 2001 with nothing but a driver’s license. Eight days later, that changed. I remember crossing multiple times with nothing but a drivers license. When I was a kid in the 80s & early 90s, I don’t remember my folks bringing ID for my sister and I when we frequented the crossing at Oroville. I have some humorous border crossings as well.  It’s easier with kids. 

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17 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Great story about your cousin. When my folks lived in Junction City, OR, I remember getting back into Canada Monday, September 3, 2001 with nothing but a driver’s license. Eight days later, that changed. I remember crossing multiple times with nothing but a drivers license. When I was a kid in the 80s & early 90s, I don’t remember my folks bringing ID for my sister and I when we frequented the crossing at Oroville. I have some humorous border crossings as well.  It’s easier with kids. 

Ever go to the Scandinavian festival? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Dave said:

Blech.

 

Today is the 7th

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some beautiful sunsets lately! 

Tomorrow night I'm going to get into the 40s in Maryland for the 4th time already this year! Phoenix hit its all-time September high yesterday at 116F, but there is cold happening in other places. History shows these heat wave stretches in Phoenix do correlate to +PNA conditions in December (will be interesting to see how that unfolds with a La Nina and -PDO). 

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1 hour ago, Groundhog said:

Great story about your cousin. When my folks lived in Junction City, OR, I remember getting back into Canada Monday, September 3, 2001 with nothing but a driver’s license. Eight days later, that changed. I remember crossing multiple times with nothing but a drivers license. When I was a kid in the 80s & early 90s, I don’t remember my folks bringing ID for my sister and I when we frequented the crossing at Oroville. I have some humorous border crossings as well.  It’s easier with kids. 

We used to do that all the time. Crossing the border was really informal back in those days. 

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28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Some beautiful sunsets lately! 

Tomorrow night I'm going to get into the 40s in Maryland for the 4th time already this year! Phoenix hit its all-time September high yesterday at 116F, but there is cold happening in other places. History shows these heat wave stretches in Phoenix do correlate to +PNA conditions in December (will be interesting to see how that unfolds with a La Nina and -PDO). 

If December is warm it probably gives January a pretty good chance this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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I am so ready for the humidity to be over.  No way I could live east of the Rockies in the summer unless it was north of about the 46th parallel.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Purdy!

When I was a kid, you could go over the border any time you wanted.  I can remember one time my older cousins decided to do that when we were all visiting our aunt in Everson.  They kind of looked like stoner types so the border agents completely tore the car apart looking for whatever.  When they didn't find anything they let us go through.  Fun times!

When we moved out west, there was 4 of us in 2 cars pulling u-Hauls (Jeep Cherokee and a Ford Ranger).  We made the drive in January, so we stayed south until we hit California.  Absolutely stuffed to the gills,  with 4 dogs, 3 cats and about a half dozen reptiles.packed in between the 2 vehicles.  Me and my girlfriend at the time, and one of my best friends and her boyfriend.  We get to El Paso, and my chuckle-head friend decides she wants to cross the border to get "real" Mexican food.  I should add, my girlfriend was the only "normal" looking person, me and my friend's boyfriend looked like long haired stoners, and my friend was a tom boy and had a buzz cut with a really long rat tail (it was 1994).

We go into Mexico (Juarez), no problem... they wave us through.  We get on the other side of the bridge, and its very late dusk....there is trash in the road, people moving around in the shadows, and an army jeep with a dude hanging off a .50 cal drives by.  We jump right back in line to go back to El Paso, and when we get to the border guard, they immediately point us to secondary.  There are about 5 agents waiting for us, and they are trying to pick our story apart, and tell me to open the back of my u-Haul.  I do, and it is completely packed top to bottom front to back...the kind of packing feat you can only accomplish once.  And I'm thinking just that...."there is no way I am going to be able to get that all back in there the way I had it"

The Border Agents looked at each other, looked at me and asked how long we were there (just long enough to realize it was a bad idea and get back out) and why we went there (for Mexican Food).  The guy yelled at us "Any food you get there is going to give you the sh*ts!!  If you want "real" Mexican food there is a Taco Bell right over there!  Get out of here before I change my mind!"

At dinner later that night (we did not go to Taco Bell),  we discuss the ordeal and one of the guards told someone in the group that there was a native uprising in Southern Mexico a few days before, so they were basically under martial law (hence the Army Jeep).  Also found out that the friend's boyfriend had a ton of weed on him (basically enough to hold over the 4 of us a couple months until we found the "scene".  Not to mention the reptiles, which included a reticulated python, a Savannah monitor, and a Nile monitor.  The Retic Python and Nile Monitor are particularly aggressive, who knows how the guards would have handled that situation.... 

 

Definitely not fun at the time, but I can look back and laugh about it now.

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5 reasons behind the historic absence of tropical storms this hurricane season

It has been the longest stormless streak in the Atlantic Basin in over 50 years, and AccuWeather meteorologists point to several factors that have put a temporary pause on the 2024 hurricane season.

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor

Published Sep 6, 2024 9:35 AM PDT | Updated Sep 6, 2024 11:27 AM PDT

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The first week of September is usually one of the busiest times of the year for tropical storms and hurricanes, but there is an eerie silence across the Atlantic Ocean.

AccuWeather adjusted its hurricane forecast amid the historic lull, with 2024 being the first time in 56 years a new named storm has not developed between Aug. 13 and Sept. 3. If nothing develops by Sept. 11, it would become the longest streak without a named storm around peak hurricane season since at least the start of the satellite era in 1960.

There are several reasons behind the lull, some more meteorologically complex than others.

Delayed arrival of La Niña

A rapid collapse of El Niño was forecast to be swiftly replaced by La Niña, which, despite being linked to water temperatures near the equator of the Pacific Ocean, can have a major influence across the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, La Niña results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, making conditions prime for tropical development across the Atlantic.

windshear-big-1.gif?w=632

However, La Niña has yet to officially develop. "In March, it appeared that a transition to La Niña would occur sometime in the early to middle portions of the summer. Now it looks like La Niña may not start until the fall and might end up rather weak," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Abundance of dry, dusty air

Tropical storms and hurricanes need moisture-rich air to thrive, but such conditions have been scarce leading up to the peak of hurricane season. "There was an unusually high amount of dry air and Saharan dust across the Atlantic during the month of August," DaSilva said.

Dust-july-21.jpg?w=632

The dry, dusty air is predicted to decrease in the coming weeks, leading to conditions more favorable for tropical development.

'Convoluted' African wave train

During hurricane season, clusters of thunderstorms over Africa eventually emerge over the Atlantic Ocean. These become known as "tropical waves," and when conditions are right, they can strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes. But as of late, the train of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa has been "convoluted," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Many thunderstorms in recent weeks have taken a rare path, drenching the Sahara Desert. When the perspective tropical waves do emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they are encountering too much dry air and wind shear and struggle to develop, Sosnowski said.

africa-deserts-600.jpg?w=632

Warm vs cool water

Water across nearly all of the Atlantic hurricane basin is incredibly warm, which can fuel any tropical system that does develop. However, one area just off the west coast of Africa is much cooler, a phenomenon known as "Atlantic Niña."

"Research has shown Atlantic Niñas can potentially lead to less tropical activity in the Atlantic," DaSilva said. "The reasoning behind this cooling in the Atlantic is still a bit unclear."

Atlanticchecklist.png?w=632

Stable upper atmosphere

Another piece to the meteorological puzzle explaining the recent lull in tropical activity is the unusually warm conditions high in the atmosphere.

"Temperatures in the upper atmosphere in the tropics have been well above average this year and above 2023 levels," DaSilva said. Warm air high above the ocean can cause the atmosphere to be more stable, which makes it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop and organize into a tropical depression or storm. "This could be tied to climate change and a warmer planet," DaSilva added.

AP22262717653371.jpg?w=632

How does the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season look?

AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms this season, lower than the initial forecast of 20 to 25 but still above the historical average of 14.

“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

HurrSeasUpdate3Sep_8d3fe1.jpg?w=632

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and it officially ends on Nov. 30.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some dude started a bunch of fires along I 5 in Eugene. 

61BF69AB-98DF-4F16-A188-E45B3EB0F977.png

We had someone do that to a bunch of yards on our street last Fall. Our neighbor across the street lost almost their entire garden and nearly saw flames reach their house. This is before the rains had arrived yet when everything was still bone dry.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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51 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

5 reasons behind the historic absence of tropical storms this hurricane season

It has been the longest stormless streak in the Atlantic Basin in over 50 years, and AccuWeather meteorologists point to several factors that have put a temporary pause on the 2024 hurricane season.

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor

Published Sep 6, 2024 9:35 AM PDT | Updated Sep 6, 2024 11:27 AM PDT

Copied
 
 

The first week of September is usually one of the busiest times of the year for tropical storms and hurricanes, but there is an eerie silence across the Atlantic Ocean.

AccuWeather adjusted its hurricane forecast amid the historic lull, with 2024 being the first time in 56 years a new named storm has not developed between Aug. 13 and Sept. 3. If nothing develops by Sept. 11, it would become the longest streak without a named storm around peak hurricane season since at least the start of the satellite era in 1960.

There are several reasons behind the lull, some more meteorologically complex than others.

Delayed arrival of La Niña

A rapid collapse of El Niño was forecast to be swiftly replaced by La Niña, which, despite being linked to water temperatures near the equator of the Pacific Ocean, can have a major influence across the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, La Niña results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, making conditions prime for tropical development across the Atlantic.

windshear-big-1.gif?w=632

However, La Niña has yet to officially develop. "In March, it appeared that a transition to La Niña would occur sometime in the early to middle portions of the summer. Now it looks like La Niña may not start until the fall and might end up rather weak," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Abundance of dry, dusty air

Tropical storms and hurricanes need moisture-rich air to thrive, but such conditions have been scarce leading up to the peak of hurricane season. "There was an unusually high amount of dry air and Saharan dust across the Atlantic during the month of August," DaSilva said.

Dust-july-21.jpg?w=632

The dry, dusty air is predicted to decrease in the coming weeks, leading to conditions more favorable for tropical development.

'Convoluted' African wave train

During hurricane season, clusters of thunderstorms over Africa eventually emerge over the Atlantic Ocean. These become known as "tropical waves," and when conditions are right, they can strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes. But as of late, the train of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa has been "convoluted," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Many thunderstorms in recent weeks have taken a rare path, drenching the Sahara Desert. When the perspective tropical waves do emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they are encountering too much dry air and wind shear and struggle to develop, Sosnowski said.

africa-deserts-600.jpg?w=632

Warm vs cool water

Water across nearly all of the Atlantic hurricane basin is incredibly warm, which can fuel any tropical system that does develop. However, one area just off the west coast of Africa is much cooler, a phenomenon known as "Atlantic Niña."

"Research has shown Atlantic Niñas can potentially lead to less tropical activity in the Atlantic," DaSilva said. "The reasoning behind this cooling in the Atlantic is still a bit unclear."

Atlanticchecklist.png?w=632

Stable upper atmosphere

Another piece to the meteorological puzzle explaining the recent lull in tropical activity is the unusually warm conditions high in the atmosphere.

"Temperatures in the upper atmosphere in the tropics have been well above average this year and above 2023 levels," DaSilva said. Warm air high above the ocean can cause the atmosphere to be more stable, which makes it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop and organize into a tropical depression or storm. "This could be tied to climate change and a warmer planet," DaSilva added.

AP22262717653371.jpg?w=632

How does the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season look?

AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms this season, lower than the initial forecast of 20 to 25 but still above the historical average of 14.

“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

HurrSeasUpdate3Sep_8d3fe1.jpg?w=632

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and it officially ends on Nov. 30.

"We were wrong, but at least we can name 5 possible reasons why."

A forum for the end of the world.

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51 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

5 reasons behind the historic absence of tropical storms this hurricane season

It has been the longest stormless streak in the Atlantic Basin in over 50 years, and AccuWeather meteorologists point to several factors that have put a temporary pause on the 2024 hurricane season.

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor

Published Sep 6, 2024 9:35 AM PDT | Updated Sep 6, 2024 11:27 AM PDT

Copied
 
 

The first week of September is usually one of the busiest times of the year for tropical storms and hurricanes, but there is an eerie silence across the Atlantic Ocean.

AccuWeather adjusted its hurricane forecast amid the historic lull, with 2024 being the first time in 56 years a new named storm has not developed between Aug. 13 and Sept. 3. If nothing develops by Sept. 11, it would become the longest streak without a named storm around peak hurricane season since at least the start of the satellite era in 1960.

There are several reasons behind the lull, some more meteorologically complex than others.

Delayed arrival of La Niña

A rapid collapse of El Niño was forecast to be swiftly replaced by La Niña, which, despite being linked to water temperatures near the equator of the Pacific Ocean, can have a major influence across the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, La Niña results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, making conditions prime for tropical development across the Atlantic.

windshear-big-1.gif?w=632

However, La Niña has yet to officially develop. "In March, it appeared that a transition to La Niña would occur sometime in the early to middle portions of the summer. Now it looks like La Niña may not start until the fall and might end up rather weak," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Abundance of dry, dusty air

Tropical storms and hurricanes need moisture-rich air to thrive, but such conditions have been scarce leading up to the peak of hurricane season. "There was an unusually high amount of dry air and Saharan dust across the Atlantic during the month of August," DaSilva said.

Dust-july-21.jpg?w=632

The dry, dusty air is predicted to decrease in the coming weeks, leading to conditions more favorable for tropical development.

'Convoluted' African wave train

During hurricane season, clusters of thunderstorms over Africa eventually emerge over the Atlantic Ocean. These become known as "tropical waves," and when conditions are right, they can strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes. But as of late, the train of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa has been "convoluted," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Many thunderstorms in recent weeks have taken a rare path, drenching the Sahara Desert. When the perspective tropical waves do emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they are encountering too much dry air and wind shear and struggle to develop, Sosnowski said.

africa-deserts-600.jpg?w=632

Warm vs cool water

Water across nearly all of the Atlantic hurricane basin is incredibly warm, which can fuel any tropical system that does develop. However, one area just off the west coast of Africa is much cooler, a phenomenon known as "Atlantic Niña."

"Research has shown Atlantic Niñas can potentially lead to less tropical activity in the Atlantic," DaSilva said. "The reasoning behind this cooling in the Atlantic is still a bit unclear."

Atlanticchecklist.png?w=632

Stable upper atmosphere

Another piece to the meteorological puzzle explaining the recent lull in tropical activity is the unusually warm conditions high in the atmosphere.

"Temperatures in the upper atmosphere in the tropics have been well above average this year and above 2023 levels," DaSilva said. Warm air high above the ocean can cause the atmosphere to be more stable, which makes it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop and organize into a tropical depression or storm. "This could be tied to climate change and a warmer planet," DaSilva added.

AP22262717653371.jpg?w=632

How does the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season look?

AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms this season, lower than the initial forecast of 20 to 25 but still above the historical average of 14.

“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

HurrSeasUpdate3Sep_8d3fe1.jpg?w=632

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and it officially ends on Nov. 30.

Please don’t copy paste articles here.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If December is warm it probably gives January a pretty good chance this winter.

Not sure December has a correlation to how January shapes up. I’d much rather prefer a cold and snowy holiday season than a cold January when the sun angles are climbing. Pretty sure I’m not alone in that regard. December is where it’s at. 

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

5 reasons behind the historic absence of tropical storms this hurricane season

It has been the longest stormless streak in the Atlantic Basin in over 50 years, and AccuWeather meteorologists point to several factors that have put a temporary pause on the 2024 hurricane season.

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor

Published Sep 6, 2024 9:35 AM PDT | Updated Sep 6, 2024 11:27 AM PDT

Copied
 
 

The first week of September is usually one of the busiest times of the year for tropical storms and hurricanes, but there is an eerie silence across the Atlantic Ocean.

AccuWeather adjusted its hurricane forecast amid the historic lull, with 2024 being the first time in 56 years a new named storm has not developed between Aug. 13 and Sept. 3. If nothing develops by Sept. 11, it would become the longest streak without a named storm around peak hurricane season since at least the start of the satellite era in 1960.

There are several reasons behind the lull, some more meteorologically complex than others.

Delayed arrival of La Niña

A rapid collapse of El Niño was forecast to be swiftly replaced by La Niña, which, despite being linked to water temperatures near the equator of the Pacific Ocean, can have a major influence across the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, La Niña results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, making conditions prime for tropical development across the Atlantic.

windshear-big-1.gif?w=632

However, La Niña has yet to officially develop. "In March, it appeared that a transition to La Niña would occur sometime in the early to middle portions of the summer. Now it looks like La Niña may not start until the fall and might end up rather weak," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Abundance of dry, dusty air

Tropical storms and hurricanes need moisture-rich air to thrive, but such conditions have been scarce leading up to the peak of hurricane season. "There was an unusually high amount of dry air and Saharan dust across the Atlantic during the month of August," DaSilva said.

Dust-july-21.jpg?w=632

The dry, dusty air is predicted to decrease in the coming weeks, leading to conditions more favorable for tropical development.

'Convoluted' African wave train

During hurricane season, clusters of thunderstorms over Africa eventually emerge over the Atlantic Ocean. These become known as "tropical waves," and when conditions are right, they can strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes. But as of late, the train of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa has been "convoluted," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Many thunderstorms in recent weeks have taken a rare path, drenching the Sahara Desert. When the perspective tropical waves do emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they are encountering too much dry air and wind shear and struggle to develop, Sosnowski said.

africa-deserts-600.jpg?w=632

Warm vs cool water

Water across nearly all of the Atlantic hurricane basin is incredibly warm, which can fuel any tropical system that does develop. However, one area just off the west coast of Africa is much cooler, a phenomenon known as "Atlantic Niña."

"Research has shown Atlantic Niñas can potentially lead to less tropical activity in the Atlantic," DaSilva said. "The reasoning behind this cooling in the Atlantic is still a bit unclear."

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Stable upper atmosphere

Another piece to the meteorological puzzle explaining the recent lull in tropical activity is the unusually warm conditions high in the atmosphere.

"Temperatures in the upper atmosphere in the tropics have been well above average this year and above 2023 levels," DaSilva said. Warm air high above the ocean can cause the atmosphere to be more stable, which makes it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop and organize into a tropical depression or storm. "This could be tied to climate change and a warmer planet," DaSilva added.

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How does the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season look?

AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms this season, lower than the initial forecast of 20 to 25 but still above the historical average of 14.

“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

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The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and it officially ends on Nov. 30.

Still going 16 to 20?  Ballsy to say the least!

I wonder if the wetter conditions in the Sahara could be the beginning of the Sahara transitioning to savannah which happens on a regular (though very long cycle) basis.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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