September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Front Ranger]

In Andrew country.

[Phil]

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I am so ready for the humidity to be over.  No way I could live east of the Rockies in the summer unless it was north of about the 46th parallel.  

From my limited experience, coastal Maine is essentially a continental version of the PNW. Has the same hilly, conifer-dominated landscape and overall vibe.

Summers are the most similar..lots of cool/sunny days with bouts of marine influence too, especially in the morning, but rarely gloomy all day. Only perceivable difference is probably the more frequent thunderstorms in Maine.

Winters are where the similarities end, though. Even the “warmest” winters will have several bouts of blizzard conditions at the coast. Basically 5+ months where snow is the dominant precip type.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

You could probably use a couple stations and try to say if the winter years end with 8-9, it's correlated with a colder winter here, even if of course there's no physical link.

Lol, yep. In fact that’s likely to yield a stronger “correlation” to cold winters than the top 10 wettest/driest autumns.  

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

You could probably use a couple stations and try to say if the winter years end with 8-9, it's correlated with a colder winter here, even if of course there's no physical link.

The 8-9 winter thing is pure coincidence obviously since it's just numbers on a calendar.  I'm sure if you ran the numbers for the last 150 years it would show very cold though.  That is a weird one.  Even more so if you look at even decade ones.

1908-09 - Wickedly cold January

1928-29 - One of the coldest winters on record for the NW

1948-49 - The coldest winter on record for the NW.

1968-69 - Top 5 coldest winter for the 20th century

1988-89 - Wickedly cold Feb, second coldest of the 20th century.

2008-09 - Cold winter with a wicked December.

Just uncanny!

[Phil]

23 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, normally that area is somewhat protected by land masses to the east but Yagi took a perfect path to maintain strength just grazing the northern side of Hainan. The South China Sea is also extremely warm right now which contributed to Yagi becoming one of only a handful of Cat 5’s recorded there. 

Similar story out this way, shape of coast usually protects us from hurricanes, but with the right track we’re actually quite vulnerable.

Definitely overdue as well. Given the significant warming of mid-latitude waters over the last century, the next hurricane to make it up here will be devastating to both the biosphere and regional infrastructure.

 

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 8-9 winter thing is pure coincidence obviously since it's just numbers on a calendar.  I'm sure if you ran the numbers for the last 150 years it would show very cold though.  That is a weird one.  Even more so if you look at even decade ones.

1908-09 - Wickedly cold January

1928-29 - One of the coldest winters on record for the NW

1948-49 - The coldest winter on record for the NW.

1968-69 - Top 5 coldest winter for the 20th century

1988-89 - Wickedly cold Feb, second coldest of the 20th century.

2008-09 - Cold winter with a wicked December.

Just uncanny!

Can’t forget about 2018-19 as well! Though that winter was pretty warm besides February.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 8-9 winter thing is pure coincidence obviously since it's just numbers on a calendar.  I'm sure if you ran the numbers for the last 150 years it would show very cold though.  That is a weird one.  Even more so if you look at even decade ones.

1908-09 - Wickedly cold January

1928-29 - One of the coldest winters on record for the NW

1948-49 - The coldest winter on record for the NW.

1968-69 - Top 5 coldest winter for the 20th century

1988-89 - Wickedly cold Feb, second coldest of the 20th century.

2008-09 - Cold winter with a wicked December.

Just uncanny!

And of course 2018/19 was impressive in the snowfall department. Violated nearly every aspect of niño climo.  

If all these 8/9 winters were preceded by the top-10 wettest autumns on record, you KNOW people here would be screaming from the rooftops that autumn precip is predictive of winter cold/snow. And Flatiron would be leading the charge.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 8-9 winter thing is pure coincidence obviously since it's just numbers on a calendar.  I'm sure if you ran the numbers for the last 150 years it would show very cold though.  That is a weird one.  Even more so if you look at even decade ones.

1908-09 - Wickedly cold January

1928-29 - One of the coldest winters on record for the NW

1948-49 - The coldest winter on record for the NW.

1968-69 - Top 5 coldest winter for the 20th century

1988-89 - Wickedly cold Feb, second coldest of the 20th century.

2008-09 - Cold winter with a wicked December.

Just uncanny!

Seems to have skipped the 19th century though, since 1868-69 and 1888-89 were among the worst of that era.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems to have skipped the 19th century though, since 1868-69 and 1888-89 were among the worst of that era.

1898-99 was a great one, but odd decade.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Can’t forget about 2018-19 as well! Though that winter was pretty warm besides February.

Yeah....I was just doing even decades.  In the odds you 1978-79 also which was quite cold nationally a pretty cold in the NW.

[T-Town]

The sun is out here now. Up to 65 degrees. Still pretty hazy but much improved over the last couple days. 

[snow_wizard]

Epic model fail for this weekend.  Today was supposed to be in the 80s for SEA according to models run just a day ago and it's only in the low 60s right now.  I will take it!

[Phil]

Is Tim okay? His post rate is way down.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is Tim okay? His post rate is way down.

He’s been very very busy trying to troll Andrew and Jim and also convince people that the blue wave is coming on the politics thread 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is Tim okay? His post rate is way down.

He’s posting 5000 times a day in the politics thread.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is Tim okay? His post rate is way down.

Hospitalized with viral TDS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In Andrew country.

Gods country

[MossMan]

Lovely day, just hit 70. Took a walk with the dogs earlier and then did some weed spraying. 
 

Go Hawks! 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

From my limited experience, coastal Maine is essentially a continental version of the PNW. Has the same hilly, conifer-dominated landscape and overall vibe.

Summers are the most similar..lots of cool/sunny days with bouts of marine influence too, especially in the morning, but rarely gloomy all day. Only perceivable difference is probably the more frequent thunderstorms in Maine.

Winters are where the similarities end, though. Even the “warmest” winters will have several bouts of blizzard conditions at the coast. Basically 5+ months where snow is the dominant precip type.

Just checked... warmest winter on record at Portland, ME is still 3.6F colder than 1948-49 was at PDX.

And we're farther north!

[Groundhog]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

He’s been very very busy trying to troll Andrew and Jim and also convince people that the blue wave is coming on the politics thread 

I guess there’s more of a reaction to saying Orange Hitler is big, bad, and orange  than an EPS loop with predominant western ridging. Nothin’ personal against him, however. 

[Groundhog]

Upper 70s with filtered sun. Lovely day for the outdoor autumn kickoff at church. 

[Tenochtitlan]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

From my limited experience, coastal Maine is essentially a continental version of the PNW. Has the same hilly, conifer-dominated landscape and overall vibe.

Summers are the most similar..lots of cool/sunny days with bouts of marine influence too, especially in the morning, but rarely gloomy all day. Only perceivable difference is probably the more frequent thunderstorms in Maine.

Winters are where the similarities end, though. Even the “warmest” winters will have several bouts of blizzard conditions at the coast. Basically 5+ months where snow is the dominant precip type.

Coastal New England has one of my favorite climates in the world. Summers aren’t too hot, winters have a great balance of snow and cold and there are thunderstorms but usually nothing too severe. 

Maine also has some rugged mountains. They’re not as tall as the Smokies but look more like real mountains to me. Especially Katahdin.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Similar story out this way, shape of coast usually protects us from hurricanes, but with the right track we’re actually quite vulnerable.

Definitely overdue as well. Given the significant warming of mid-latitude waters over the last century, the next hurricane to make it up here will be devastating to both the biosphere and regional infrastructure.

 

This map forgets about the Columbus Day storm in 1962.  There were most certainly sustained winds over hurricane strength along the WA and OR Coast.

EDIT:  The map is only for tropical storms.  Hurricane force winds from any other cause aren't real obviously.  

[Front Ranger]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gods country

God = you?

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just checked... warmest winter on record at Portland, ME is still 3.6F colder than 1948-49 was at PDX.

And we're farther north!

That is pretty crazy.  Inland WA and OR is a way different story of course.

[Phishy Wx]

Who's god?

never heard of it

[Cold Snap]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This map forgets about the Columbus Day storm in 1962.  There were most certainly sustained winds over hurricane strength along the WA and OR Coast.

EDIT:  The map is only for tropical storms.  Hurricane force winds from any other cause aren't real obviously.  

I think about how costly it would be if a similar or stronger storm happened today. The cost in damages done from the Columbus Day windstorm was on par with some of the costliest hurricanes on record at the time.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

In Andrew country.

That explains the anxiety

[snow_wizard]

The gunk is finally about to clear from the Seattle area.  The back edge of the smoke is close now.  Much better feeling day today as well.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On-call sucks.

It wouldn’t suck so much if there was some sort of compensation (i.e. extra vacation time) for it, but there isn’t, at least not in the computing world. You’re just supposed to accept that 1/3 or so of your weekends will be lost as a result of having to spend time in cell coverage and not too far from an Internet-connected computer. That’s more blown weekend days than one typically gets in vacation days per year!

Maybe that doesn’t count as “lost” for tech geeks whose outside interests are gaming and science fiction and who would be staying in town must weekends, but it sure counts as lost for me, since I often want to be somewhere outdoors and out of the city.

Had a friend who was a retired Navy propulsion systems guy and was responsible for the boiler system at the mill he worked at.  Because he was the most senior guy, he was pretty much always on call, and loved getting after hours calls.  I can't remember the exact numbers, but it was beyond crazy (and very understandable why he loved getting called).  Even his wife said "hell yes they can call all they want!"  When he answered his phone, it was automatically something like 2 hours pay at 2.5 times rate assuming it could be handled with a phone call.  If he had to go in to the mill, he got something like 3 hours at 2.5 times pay, plus he got paid time and a half for his actual time door to door.  Union gig at a titanium mill.  Very dangerous work though, water and molten titanium do not play nice together.

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The 8-9 winter thing is pure coincidence obviously since it's just numbers on a calendar.  I'm sure if you ran the numbers for the last 150 years it would show very cold though.  That is a weird one.  Even more so if you look at even decade ones.

1908-09 - Wickedly cold January

1928-29 - One of the coldest winters on record for the NW

1948-49 - The coldest winter on record for the NW.

1968-69 - Top 5 coldest winter for the 20th century

1988-89 - Wickedly cold Feb, second coldest of the 20th century.

2008-09 - Cold winter with a wicked December.

Just uncanny!

Don't forget 1978-79.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Don't forget 1978-79.

It's been mentioned.  The list was specifically even decades.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is still filtered by high level smoke but it's warm day on Lake Sammamish.  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is still filtered by high level smoke but it's warm day on Lake Sammamish.  

The visible sat pic makes it appear we should have blue sky soon, but it's taking a long time.

[snow_wizard]

The models are toying with the idea of some action over the Atlantic but nothing firm yet.  Hard to believe people are still forecasting 16 to 20 storms this season.  Not impossible I guess, but I think something like 9 to 12 is more likely.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is still filtered by high level smoke but it's warm day on Lake Sammamish.  

You need to get off the lake and get to bashing the Seahawks in the sports forum! 

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You need to get off the lake and get to bashing the Seahawks in the sports forum! 

Decided to take advantage of the warm weather and recorded the game.  Dead calm and 79 out here now with sun slowly becoming less filtered.   And it feels humid.   Great boat day!

[Chewbacca Defense]

Its been quite cool up here the past coupe of days.  I wasn't feeling well yesterday, so I don't know what it was doing other than it was overcast most of the day, not sure if it was clouds or smoke.

Today it was overcast until early afternoon, and smoky sun since then, looks like we hit 74 at some point but its only 70 degrees now. 

[Phishy Wx]

looks smoky AF out.  about to run some errands, hopefully it doesn't stink too bad

currently 87 imby, might keep it from hitting 90

[DeepFriedEgg]

Death ridge incoming for eastern Canada