September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Visible sat pic shows a lot of fires in OR right now.  Look small, but a lot of them.

Hopefully it stays really dry.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2020 was terrible here.  I wore an N-95 mask when I was outside and it wasn't for COVID.

What did the air quality get to there? I believe it peaked over 500 here, I think some towns got close to 700.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, technically Ireland is worse. Dublin is at 53 north and gets less snow than Seattle or Portland. 

Northern Ireland, the Hebrides, Bergen (all though I think they are on par with us for snow).

There was another comment about the 2° margin between something significantly icier and not, quite a bit of truth to that when you factor valley shadowing and how our geography makes for some epic inversions for a six month window. When you read up on the Cordilleran ice sheet, you learn how easily and quickly that formed in the early throws of previous glaciations.

[MossMan]

It must be coming! I was only off the forum for about an hour. 

Edited September 9 by MossMan

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Noooooooooo. October snow is the #1 winter curse out here.

[Tanis Leach]

10 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Please do one of these about the dynamics of the microclimates in the south Willamette Valley.

Definatly on the list of topics for the future. Have a few I already know what to say and/or should do just so I don't have to explain what ENSO, PDO, etc is every time I do the technical versions of my Winter forecasts. 

[Kolk1604]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2020 was terrible here.  I wore an N-95 mask when I was outside and it wasn't for COVID.

Sep 7, 2020 to be exact. That was one of the more crazier east wind events i've been apart of. 

This was 167 near Sumner. 

[Front Ranger]

50 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Melt season is pretty much over widespread refreeze in CAB already will likely end up as 6th lowest on record behind 2012, 2020, 2019, 2016, and 2007 

2016!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rainy day here in anchorage today. 

[DareDuck]

Quite a bit smoke and ash falling in SE Bend. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Interestingly 1988-89 has a super positive AO in January and then it just absolutely collapsed.

That is true. The wave break was so massive there was almost zero lag time between the SSW and tropospheric amplification. SSW initiated only 5 days before the arctic airmass was dislodged into western Canada.

This is actually the most prolific SSW in the dataset. However, note how the vortex started off strong in autumn 1988, which may not be the case this year.

[BLI snowman]

RIP James Earl Jones

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

You know what we need? Some good dry south and east wind, that'll help burn down Mount Bachelor! 

[RentonHill]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is true. The wave break was so massive there was almost zero lag time between the SSW and tropospheric amplification. SSW initiated only 5 days before the arctic airmass was dislodged into western Canada.

This is actually the most prolific SSW in the dataset. However, note how the vortex started off strong in autumn 1988, which may not be the case this year.

Do you have all those charts saved? Or do you have a site you can share  with them. http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/ that site doesn't load the images for me anymore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So what are some years with some weak PV's?

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So what are some years with some weak PV's?

Just use FloMax Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just use FloMax Andrew.

You would love the weather up here today. It's so green and the leaves are starting to turn. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Can someone tell me how the PV was during ‘16-‘17? It was consistently cold here. Everywhere really I know. Any SSW’s that winter?

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Can someone tell me how the PV was during ‘16-‘17? It was consistently cold here. Everywhere really I know. Any SSW’s that winter?

Pretty week.

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

You know what we need? Some good dry south and east wind, that'll help burn down Mount Bachelor! 

Maybe it will chase everyone to Florida. 

[Deweydog]

51 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

RIP James Earl Jones

I remember watching this the night it aired on my 27” Toshiba in Pateros. I believe there was snow on the ground!

 

[Deweydog]

Looks pretty whet Whednesday morning.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Noooooooooo. October snow is the #1 winter curse out here.

Fall 2022, my location in EWA had 1 inch just a hair after Halloween on Nov 1st. We had an inch. The most I had in any single day that season was 2.10. Lots of slop.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I remember watching this the night it aired on my 27” Toshiba in Pateros. I believe there was snow on the ground!

 

If it was a Friday night and you had a half rack of animal beer and a pack of Marlboro Lights then it could have been a perfect evening. 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Forget who was talking about this the other day, but downtown Portland is definitely a ghost town. At least the parts I've seen on this trip. 

Kinda spooky. 

That is really sad.   Definitely not like that in downtown Seattle.   

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Looks pretty whet Whednesday morning.

It's nice that Oregon is going to get a decent soaking...or at least the western half of the state. 

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS is cold and dry.  The uncertainty regarding next Tuesday is pretty crazy precip wise.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Sep 7, 2020 to be exact. That was one of the more crazier east wind events i've been apart of. 

This was 167 near Sumner. 

I had no idea it got that crazy there.  Wow!

[T-Town]

Where’s this crappy weather I’ve been hearing about?

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is really sad.   Definitely not like that in downtown Seattle.   

You ain’t kidding… When we were up there a few weeks ago to watch the Mariners strike out a bunch of times we are down at the market. It was an absolute madhouse of a superspreader event. 

[Deweydog]

49 minutes ago, T-Town said:

If it was a Friday night and you had a half rack of animal beer and a pack of Marlboro Lights then it could have been a perfect evening. 

Looks like it was Tuesday. Maybe Chinese food from the Safeway deli and a Mr. Pibb?

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like it was Tuesday. Maybe Chinese food from the Safeway deli and a Mr. Pibb?

Next best thing. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Where’s this crappy weather I’ve been hearing about?

It turned out pretty nice today.  Very comfortable.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You ain’t kidding… When we were up there a few weeks ago to watch the Mariners strike out a bunch of times we are down at the market. It was an absolute madhouse of a superspreader event. 

So we're in agreement Seattle is > than Portland now?

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So we're in agreement Seattle is > than Portland now?

has that ever been a question?  

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So we're in agreement Seattle is > than Portland now?

DT Portland gets much hotter in the summer, so NO. 

[TacomaWx]

30 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Where’s this crappy weather I’ve been hearing about?

Weather looks perfect for the next 7-10 days. 

[TacomaWx]

66/59 here today. Looks like we gradually will drop high temps over the next week with some rain even Wednesday. Looks like a very gradual descent into fall coming unless we get some unusual late September or October warmth. 

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So we're in agreement Seattle is > than Portland now?

December 1919 > December 1996, so no.

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Weather looks perfect for the next 7-10 days. 

A little gray for my liking this time of year but if it comes with rain then I will take it.