September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

The warming is especially sharp and directly in correlation with increased co2 in the air.

So they say.....

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

So they say.....

Go look at the charts 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

My tolerance for heat must really be increasing.  I was working my arse off in Liberty today which included hiking up and down a steep slope in full sunshine and I thought it only felt like low to mid 80s.  In reality it hit 93 at Blewett Pass today.  Maybe it was the low humidity that made it feel so tolerable.

Also...I noticed the Chikamin Peak snow finger was still barely there today.  Pretty impressive considering the low snowpack the season began with.

Snowpack actually hit seasonal average levels come May/June (despite being near record lows in the middle of winter) due to the cold spring

[westcoastexpat]

37 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Quite the heatwave coming. I think models are overdoing puget sound cooling.

 

Sea surface temps in the sound have cooled off significantly throughout August, so I wouldn't underestimate the cooling effect of any onshore flow.

[westcoastexpat]

On 9/2/2024 at 9:38 AM, Slushy Inch said:

The warming is especially sharp and directly in correlation with increased co2 in the air.

It is not worth it - once you realize that Jim cannot bear the possibility of a pre 1980 colder regime never returning in his lifetime, you understand his stance on climate warning a bit better. Sometimes the little lies we tell ourselves keep us going. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were lucky here in Oregon. We had a pretty decent snowpack year last winter. 

[the_convergence_zone]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So they say.....

It's pretty rough to accept that we're going to keep crushing heat records left and right for the rest of our time on this planet, while the brief cold respites grow fewer and farther between. 

On a more optimistic note, June 2021 set such a high bar that those records should at least hold for at least a decade or two, if we're lucky. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

It is not worth it - once you realize that Tim cannot bear the possibility of a pre 1980 colder regime never returning in his lifetime, you understand his stance on climate warning a bit better. Sometimes the little lies we tell ourselves keep us going. 

You meant to say Jim, perhaps?

[SnowWillarrive]

47 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The warming is especially sharp and directly in correlation with increased co2 in the air.

We need a direct comet impact to save our climate. 

[Snownerd3000]

Good Omen, yes?

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We were lucky here in Oregon. We had a pretty decent snowpack year last winter. 

So they say…

[Tenochtitlan]

17 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's pretty rough to accept that we're going to keep crushing heat records left and right for the rest of our time on this planet, while the brief cold respites grow fewer and farther between. 

On a more optimistic note, June 2021 set such a high bar that those records should at least hold for at least a decade or two, if we're lucky. 

 

Yeah, even though climate models suggested that heat wave was something like 100 times more likely because of the amount our climate has warmed so far, I remember reading that even now a heatwave that intense is only supposed to happen every couple decades or so. 

[snow_wizard]

GFS gets nice later in the run.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Go look at the charts 

You have to blindly believe some things going in for those to mean much.  For example I've recently found ice core data that suggests Greenland has had periods of 8 degrees of warming in a 50 year period in the past.  This narrative about the rate of warming is a new thing your side has come up with recently to mitigate the effects of people who have countered the man caused global warming narrative with facts about natural climate change in the past.  Things like the fact Seattle was under 2000 feet of ice fairly recently (by geologic time standards), or the fact there have been examples of 8 feet of sea level change in a century in the past.  The numbers they are pointing to as being a crisis are laughable.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to blindly believe some things going in for those to mean much.  For example I've recently found ice core data that suggests Greenland has had periods of 8 degrees of warming in a 50 year period in the past.  This narrative about the rate of warming is a new thing your side has come up with recently to mitigate the effects of people who have countered the man caused global warming narrative with facts about natural climate change in the past.  Things like the fact Seattle was under 2000 feet of ice fairly recently (by geologic time standards), or the fact there have been examples of 8 feet of sea level change in a century in the past.  The numbers they are pointing to as being a crisis are laughable.

Blah blah blah deniers always have some bs explanation whether it’s sunspots or saying variations are normal or something. I would assume anyone on a weather forum would be above man caused warming denial, it’s basic atmospheric physics. What percentage of scientists agree?

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, even though climate models suggested that heat wave was something like 100 times more likely because of the amount our climate has warmed so far, I remember reading that even now a heatwave that intense is only supposed to happen every couple decades or so. 

Climate models and weather models are well known to make big mistakes.  We are talking about models that sometime blow a forecast a few days out.  Just saying to keep an open mind.  I know the younger people on here have been fed a steady diet of we're all going to die from climate change in school and from the media so I get it.

As for me...I think there could be a man caused element to it, but natural cycles are a very powerful thing.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Blah blah blah deniers always have some bs explanation whether it’s sunspots and saying variations are normal or something. I would assume anyone on a weather forum would be above man caused warming denial, it’s basic atmospheric physics.

Same to you.  Your side has to keep countering the facts our side throws out there with faith in theories, imperfect computer models, and questionable methodology in presenting data.  Yes our side does that too.  Goes to show this isn't settled.

[Tenochtitlan]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Climate models and weather models are well known to make big mistakes.  We are talking about models that sometime blow a forecast a few days out.  Just saying to keep an open mind.  I know the younger people on here have been fed a steady diet of we're all going to die from climate change in school and from the media so I get it.

As for me...I think there could be a man caused element to it, but natural cycles are a very powerful thing.

Jim, it’s ok to accept that our climate is rapidly warming. I don’t think we’re all going to die from climate change, but I respect scientists who have devoted their careers to understanding and forecasting climate. I’m smart enough to know that I’m just an amateur, that’s why I look to the scientific consensus. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Same to you.  Your side has to keep countering the facts our side throws out there with faith in theories, imperfect computer models, and questionable methodology in presenting data.  Yes our side does that too.  Goes to show this isn't settled.

My side? It shouldn’t be a political issue. Make sure you aren’t twisting your perception of climate change to align with your political views. What do the majority of climate scientists say?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Blah blah blah deniers always have some bs explanation whether it’s sunspots and saying variations are normal or something. I would assume anyone on a weather forum would be above man caused warming denial, it’s basic atmospheric physics.

Ed Berry is probably the most knowledgeable person I have ever come across on the complex workings of the atmosphere and he is a firm man caused climate change denier.  This guy is way above the pay grade of almost any meteorologist out there.  Here is a snippet from the internet about him.

Berry's PhD thesis is still cited as a breakthrough in cloud physics and numerical modeling.

It's just laughable to read the ramblings of armchair meteorologists that try to discredit him.  This is way more complicated than you make it out to be.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Jim, it’s ok to accept that our climate is rapidly warming. I don’t think we’re all going to die from climate change, but I respect scientists who have devoted their careers to understanding and forecasting climate. I’m smart enough to know that I’m just an amateur, that’s why I look to the scientific consensus. 

 

No way I'm going to get you to think about this with an open mind.  That's ok.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Jim, it’s ok to accept that our climate is rapidly warming. I don’t think we’re all going to die from climate change, but I respect scientists who have devoted their careers to understanding and forecasting climate. I’m smart enough to know that I’m just an amateur, that’s why I look to the scientific consensus. 

 

It’s all going to come down to how much it effects crops. Considering how the fear over disease and extreme weather is so overblown I guess everyone will move closer to the poles along with crops.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

My side? It shouldn’t be a political issue. Make sure you aren’t twisting your perception of climate change to align with your political views. What do the majority of climate scientists say?

I do happen to know a lot about the atmosphere and weather.  You have been brainwashed to some extent.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I do happen to know a lot about the atmosphere and weather.  You have been brainwashed to some extent.

No, the people that are brainwashed are the ones that think extreme weather, fire and disease are getting way worse from climate change.

[snow_wizard]

Anyway...I've said my piece about it.  Just hoping to show people there are other viewpoints from people that's aren't uneducated idiots.  The bottom line is it's impossible to prove the vast majority of the current warming isn't natural.  Conversely there is no way to prove the opposite either.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ed Berry is probably the most knowledgeable person I have ever come across on the complex workings of the atmosphere and he is a firm man caused climate change denier.  This guy is way above the pay grade of almost any meteorologist out there.  Here is a snippet from the internet about him.

Berry's PhD thesis is still cited as a breakthrough in cloud physics and numerical modeling.

It's just laughable to read the ramblings of armchair meteorologists that try to discredit him.  This is way more complicated than you make it out to be.

Same playbook as my uncle. I know one two or maybe even three climate scientists that think otherwise.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

No, the people that are brainwashed are the ones that think extreme weather, fire and disease are getting way worse from climate change.

The 1930s says hello.  It's called extreme pattern amplification.  It is cyclical.  Some decades are much more perturbed than others.  I'm just trying to get people to admit there is some doubt about the cause of things.  People like you just won't admit that.

[Tenochtitlan]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No way I'm going to get you to think about this with an open mind.  That's ok.

If 98% of scientists think something is true, and 2% disagree, I can be open-minded to the possibility that the 98% are wrong. But it would be silly to give the 2% the same amount of space in my brain as the 98%, being that I’m not a scientist myself.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Anyway...I've said my piece about it.  Just hoping to show people there are other viewpoints from people that's aren't uneducated idiots.  The bottom line is it's impossible to prove the vast majority of the current warming isn't natural.  Conversely there is no way to prove the opposite either.

So what’s the other cause of warning? Also I’m not an educated idiot I have a CS degree.

[iFred]

Kind of sucks that my child will most likely never see a snow day in his life.

 

Anyway, I’d recommend either doing the whole “agree to disagree” thing like we did in the 90s or kicking of a climate thread.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Same playbook as my uncle. I know one two or maybe even three climate scientists that think otherwise.

This guy is worth at least 10 regular climate scientists.  He has done vast research into things most never even think of.  Can you at least admit there is some doubt about this stuff?  I know the answer is no.  You have been fed a steady one sided narrative your entire life.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

So what’s the other cause of warning? 

The massive fleece blankets they sell at Costco.

So cozy…

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Kind of sucks that my child will most likely never see a snow day in his life.

 

Anyway, I’d recommend either doing the whole “agree to disagree” thing like we did in the 90s or kicking of a climate thread.

Yeah....I'm finished.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This guy is worth at least 10 regular climate scientists.  He has done vast research into things most never even think of.  Can you at least admit there is some doubt about this stuff?  I know the answer is no.  You have been fed a steady one sided narrative your entire life.

You love to straw man and misrepresent people it seems 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The massive fleece blankets they sell at Costco.

So cozy…

Those giant Costco parking lots. 

[Tenochtitlan]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This guy is worth at least 10 regular climate scientists.  He has done vast research into things most never even think of.  Can you at least admit there is some doubt about this stuff?  I know the answer is no.  You have been fed a steady one sided narrative your entire life.

Speaking for myself but, I actually used to be a climate change denier when I was younger, to the point that I would argue with my high school science teacher. My process of learning about climate change took a while. It’s not like I haven’t been exposed to “both sides”. I engaged with both and ended up deciding for myself which one to end up on. It gets easier every year to be over here what with reading headlines like “Las Vegas experiences its warmest summer ever by 2.5 degrees”…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 with drizzle. Luv it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh new fire in Klamath County. 

[MossMan]

.01” on the day!