September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

wavelengths

 

Well...this is the first run that looks like this so take it with a grain of salt.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

The AI overlords have spoken

Is PDO a driver of weather or is it simply an index showing upstream climate drivers which are actually driving weather?

 

Copilot

Sent by Copilot:

Explore

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is primarily an index that reflects patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean¹. It is not a direct driver of weather but rather an indicator of broader climate variability. The PDO index captures the state of the ocean-atmosphere system, which can influence weather patterns over long periods, typically spanning decades².

The PDO has two phases: warm (positive) and cool (negative). These phases can affect atmospheric circulation patterns, which in turn can influence weather conditions in various regions². For example, a positive PDO phase is often associated with warmer and drier conditions in the western United States and cooler, wetter conditions in the eastern United States².

So, while the PDO itself is not a direct driver of weather, it is a valuable tool for understanding and predicting long-term climate trends that can impact weather patterns.

Is there a specific aspect of the PDO or its effects on weather that you’re particularly interested in?

You

Sent by you:

You said "its an index the reflects patterns in SSTs and not a driver of weather" but then you asked "is there a specific aspect of the PDO or is effects on weather" if it doesn't drive weather and is only an index, how would it effect weather?

 

 

Copilot

Sent by Copilot:

Great question! Let me clarify. While the PDO itself is an index that reflects patterns in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these patterns can influence atmospheric conditions, which in turn can affect weather.

Here’s how it works:

1. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: The PDO captures variations in SSTs in the North Pacific. These anomalies can alter the heat distribution in the ocean.

2. Atmospheric Circulation: Changes in SSTs can influence atmospheric pressure patterns and wind circulation. For example, a warm phase of the PDO can lead to changes in the jet stream’s position.

3. Weather Patterns: These shifts in atmospheric circulation can then affect weather patterns. For instance, a positive PDO phase might lead to warmer and drier conditions in certain regions, while a negative phase might bring cooler and wetter conditions.

So, while the PDO itself is not a direct driver of weather, the ocean-atmosphere interactions it represents can have significant impacts on weather patterns over time.

Please don’t just copy and paste AI/LLM output.

[kokaneekidz]

Definitely feeling the Fall vibe this morning  

Brisk west  northwestrly @ 13 knots

 

Can't wait for a Real storm

[Phishy Wx]

Warm Fall overall still seems to be theme? no?

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

wavelengths

 

Napkin meteorology tells me that the longer we can delay sea surface ice, then good vibes will commeth for a long lasting NPac ridge that just doesn’t float away.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Sorry Canada...

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...this is the first run that looks like this so take it with a grain of salt.

love salt. luv 2 eat it all day. just like i eat up these million hour GFS maps. 

1 hour ago, kokaneekidz said:

Definitely feeling the Fall vibe this morning  

Brisk west  northwestrly @ 13 knots

 

Can't wait for a Real storm

You got a nice spot there friendo. Need to get set up with a HD webcam etc a la the skunk bay weather guy, got your America flag and everything ready to go!

[Phil]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Ugh.  The one time I mixed alcohol and pot I thought I was going to die.  Just a terrible experience. 

Time traveling ain’t for the faint of heart.

[Slushy Inch]

17 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Sorry Canada...

12z gfs is on something 

[Phil]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a what came first....the chicken or the egg question.  No doubt the atmosphere sets it up, but I think somewhere along the line the SST anomalies begin to affect the circulation pattern.  Kind of a synergistic effect.  

No, those cold extratropical SSTAs have little if any effect on the pattern. They are merely a low frequency echo of atmospheric circulation tendencies driven by ocean-atmosphere coupling originating in the tropics (very different dynamical situation down there).

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the warm pool over the GOA can make it more likely for a ridge / blocking to set up out there.  Doubt if anybody knows for sure on this.

No, it doesn’t.

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Sorry Canada...

They deserve it given Celine Dion.  

[Tyler Mode]

Subtle differences...

[Snownerd3000]

37 minutes ago, iFred said:

Please don’t just copy and paste AI/LLM output.

Must. Resist. 

[the_convergence_zone]

42 minutes ago, iFred said:

Please don’t just copy and paste AI/LLM output.

What if I train a PhilBot? 

[kokaneekidz]

40 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

love salt. luv 2 eat it all day. just like i eat up these million hour GFS maps. 

You got a nice spot there friendo. Need to get set up with a HD webcam etc a la the skunk bay weather guy, got your America flag and everything ready to go!

Thx great idea  

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

They deserve it given Celine Dion.  

You guys can keep Justin Bieber as well. 

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

You guys can keep Justin Bieber as well. 

Canada gave us Neil Young, Rush and most of The Band. We can forgive them Celine. 

[RentonHill]

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement in the long range. We get theba**etend of some mega ridge with troughs digging offshore

control wants to nuke as again though. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Canada gave us Neil Young, Rush and most of The Band. We can forgive them Celine. 

Nickelback, Drake, Biebs, and Bryan Adams effectively cancel those out though. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement in the long range. We get theba**etend of some mega ridge with troughs digging offshore

control wants to nuke as again though. 

A nice birthday present for me!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nickelback, Drake, Biebs, and Bryan Adams effectively cancel those out though. 

Nickelback made some catchy tunes though. 

[RentonHill]

Nowhere to hide!

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Nickelback made some catchy tunes though. 

 

 

[Tyler Mode]

Euro shows a ridge, but not us on fire.

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks pretty great 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Definitely feeling the Fall vibe this morning  

Brisk west  northwestrly @ 13 knots

 

Can't wait for a Real storm

That's what it looks like here in Anchorage this morning too. Got pretty wet on my walk in to work. My co-workers warned me this city is a dump, and they weren't wrong. Definitely a nice fall vibe, the leaves are really starting to turn. Sucks the camera on my iPhone 14 is messed up. Time for a new one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Nickelback, Drake, Biebs, and Bryan Adams effectively cancel those out though. 

I don't get the Bieber hate. He's probably the most talented musical artist since Chris Brown. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't get the Bieber hate. He's probably the most talented musical artist since Chris Brown. 

i'm going to start calling you The Garbage Man

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Canada gave us Neil Young, Rush and most of The Band. We can forgive them Celine. 

And Randy along with Mr Lahey! (RIP ) 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

i'm going to start calling you The Garbage Man

Is this a pop culture reference I'm supposed to understand? 

[ShawniganLake]

41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

Everyone claims to hate nickelback and yet somehow they managed to sell over 50 million albums.   

 

Another beautiful sunny day here and around 70

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Everyone claims to hate nickelback and yet somehow they managed to sell over 50 million albums.   

 

Another beautiful sunny day here and around 70

Mostly sunny and 72 out here... lovely afternoon ahead of incoming system.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest ENSO update:

ENSO Region 3.4: -0.1C

Still not seeing the big drop many have predicted. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Latest ENSO update:

ENSO Region 3.4: -0.1C

Still not seeing the big drop many have predicted. 

I really doubt that is right.  Other data sets are much lower.  Not sure why there is such disagreement.  At any rate the MEI is already in Nina territory, which some people think is a bigger deal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I really doubt that is right.  Other data sets are much lower.  Not sure why there is such disagreement.  At any rate the MEI is already in Nina territory, which some people think is a bigger deal.

This is from the CPC site, would they not be the definitive source? If not then why/where would they be getting this number from? 

[snow_wizard]

This is what tropical tidbits shows.  Another site I look at also looks lower than -0.1.  This Nina going to end up at least -0.8 the way things look right now.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is from the CPC site, would they not be the definitive source? If not then why/where would they be getting this number from? 

I'm going to have to look into it.  Everything is solidly Nina right now as far as the tropical atmosphere and subsurface anomalies are concerned.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i'm going to start calling you The Garbage Man

Well, the garbage man usually comes to take trash AWAY… so, that would make this site the garbage dump.

[snow_wizard]

I will also say if Nino 3.4 is at -0.1 it in no way reflects the actual picture of what is going on in the Tropical Pacific.  SOI, subsurface temps, trade winds, and MEI are solidly into Nina territory right now.