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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

wavelengths

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7028000.png

Well...this is the first run that looks like this so take it with a grain of salt.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

The AI overlords have spoken

Is PDO a driver of weather or is it simply an index showing upstream climate drivers which are actually driving weather?
 
Copilot
Sent by Copilot:
Pacific decadal oscillation
Pacific decadal oscillation
Explore

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is primarily an index that reflects patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean1. It is not a direct driver of weather but rather an indicator of broader climate variability. The PDO index captures the state of the ocean-atmosphere system, which can influence weather patterns over long periods, typically spanning decades2.

The PDO has two phases: warm (positive) and cool (negative). These phases can affect atmospheric circulation patterns, which in turn can influence weather conditions in various regions2. For example, a positive PDO phase is often associated with warmer and drier conditions in the western United States and cooler, wetter conditions in the eastern United States2.

So, while the PDO itself is not a direct driver of weather, it is a valuable tool for understanding and predicting long-term climate trends that can impact weather patterns.

Is there a specific aspect of the PDO or its effects on weather that you’re particularly interested in?

You
Sent by you:
You said "its an index the reflects patterns in SSTs and not a driver of weather" but then you asked "is there a specific aspect of the PDO or is effects on weather" if it doesn't drive weather and is only an index, how would it effect weather?
 
 
Copilot
Sent by Copilot:

Great question! Let me clarify. While the PDO itself is an index that reflects patterns in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these patterns can influence atmospheric conditions, which in turn can affect weather.

Here’s how it works:

  1. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: The PDO captures variations in SSTs in the North Pacific. These anomalies can alter the heat distribution in the ocean.

  2. Atmospheric Circulation: Changes in SSTs can influence atmospheric pressure patterns and wind circulation. For example, a warm phase of the PDO can lead to changes in the jet stream’s position.

  3. Weather Patterns: These shifts in atmospheric circulation can then affect weather patterns. For instance, a positive PDO phase might lead to warmer and drier conditions in certain regions, while a negative phase might bring cooler and wetter conditions.

So, while the PDO itself is not a direct driver of weather, the ocean-atmosphere interactions it represents can have significant impacts on weather patterns over time.

Please don’t just copy and paste AI/LLM output.

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5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

wavelengths

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7028000.png

Napkin meteorology tells me that the longer we can delay sea surface ice, then good vibes will commeth for a long lasting NPac ridge that just doesn’t float away.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...this is the first run that looks like this so take it with a grain of salt.

love salt. luv 2 eat it all day. just like i eat up these million hour GFS maps. 

1 hour ago, kokaneekidz said:

Definitely 😁 feeling the Fall vibe this morning 🌄 

Brisk west  northwestrly @ 13 knots

 

Can't wait for a Real stormDSC_0003.thumb.JPG.ad595e46edb3045bfb94713a2092795a.JPGDSC_0002.thumb.JPG.1efd0a187f4122df7d04da25ec1d8fb9.JPG

You got a nice spot there friendo. Need to get set up with a HD webcam etc a la the skunk bay weather guy, got your America flag and everything ready to go!

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Ugh.  The one time I mixed alcohol and pot I thought I was going to die.  Just a terrible experience. 

Time traveling ain’t for the faint of heart.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a what came first....the chicken or the egg question.  No doubt the atmosphere sets it up, but I think somewhere along the line the SST anomalies begin to affect the circulation pattern.  Kind of a synergistic effect.  

No, those cold extratropical SSTAs have little if any effect on the pattern. They are merely a low frequency echo of atmospheric circulation tendencies driven by ocean-atmosphere coupling originating in the tropics (very different dynamical situation down there).

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the warm pool over the GOA can make it more likely for a ridge / blocking to set up out there.  Doubt if anybody knows for sure on this.

No, it doesn’t.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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40 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

love salt. luv 2 eat it all day. just like i eat up these million hour GFS maps. 

You got a nice spot there friendo. Need to get set up with a HD webcam etc a la the skunk bay weather guy, got your America flag and everything ready to go!

Thx 👍 😊 great idea 💡 🤠 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement in the long range. We get theba**etend of some mega ridge with troughs digging offshore

image.thumb.png.ccdd78d112d04997daf6a5dc06592854.png

control wants to nuke as again though. 

image.png.e827be5cfb8b0d90e7bb027a5798598b.pngimage.png.dc716f7f9351caaa18bf51d163f8895f.png

A nice birthday present for me!

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nickelback, Drake, Biebs, and Bryan Adams effectively cancel those out though. 

Nickelback made some catchy tunes though. 

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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6 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Definitely 😁 feeling the Fall vibe this morning 🌄 

Brisk west  northwestrly @ 13 knots

 

Can't wait for a Real stormDSC_0003.thumb.JPG.ad595e46edb3045bfb94713a2092795a.JPGDSC_0002.thumb.JPG.1efd0a187f4122df7d04da25ec1d8fb9.JPG

That's what it looks like here in Anchorage this morning too. Got pretty wet on my walk in to work. My co-workers warned me this city is a dump, and they weren't wrong. Definitely a nice fall vibe, the leaves are really starting to turn. Sucks the camera on my iPhone 14 is messed up. Time for a new one. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Nickelback, Drake, Biebs, and Bryan Adams effectively cancel those out though. 

I don't get the Bieber hate. He's probably the most talented musical artist since Chris Brown. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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40 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Canada gave us Neil Young, Rush and most of The Band. We can forgive them Celine. 

And Randy along with Mr Lahey! (RIP 😞

image.gif

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, RentonHill said:

i'm going to start calling you The Garbage Man

Is this a pop culture reference I'm supposed to understand? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Everyone claims to hate nickelback and yet somehow they managed to sell over 50 million albums.  🤷🏼 

 

Another beautiful sunny day here and around 70

Mostly sunny and 72 out here... lovely afternoon ahead of incoming system.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Latest ENSO update:

ENSO Region 3.4: -0.1C

Still not seeing the big drop many have predicted. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Latest ENSO update:

ENSO Region 3.4: -0.1C

Still not seeing the big drop many have predicted. 

I really doubt that is right.  Other data sets are much lower.  Not sure why there is such disagreement.  At any rate the MEI is already in Nina territory, which some people think is a bigger deal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I really doubt that is right.  Other data sets are much lower.  Not sure why there is such disagreement.  At any rate the MEI is already in Nina territory, which some people think is a bigger deal.

This is from the CPC site, would they not be the definitive source? If not then why/where would they be getting this number from? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is what tropical tidbits shows.  Another site I look at also looks lower than -0.1.  This Nina going to end up at least -0.8 the way things look right now.

 

cold.jpg

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is from the CPC site, would they not be the definitive source? If not then why/where would they be getting this number from? 

I'm going to have to look into it.  Everything is solidly Nina right now as far as the tropical atmosphere and subsurface anomalies are concerned.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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I will also say if Nino 3.4 is at -0.1 it in no way reflects the actual picture of what is going on in the Tropical Pacific.  SOI, subsurface temps, trade winds, and MEI are solidly into Nina territory right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 37

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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