September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Jesse, he will be back before the end of the year I’m guessing. 

Prolly just a forced vacation. He seriously needed it. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Always love a good Baffin Island ridge.  

Yeah, it does run into the NAO domain. We just can't get the Pacific to cooperate with the Atlantic lately.. in the last 17 years, >65% of -NAO's have been with -pna or +epo, compared to ~55-60% otherwise

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Nice day hike to Pea Soup Lake yesterday, Lynch Glacier is in sad shape. The Dip Top Gap ice patch is dying rapidly. 

 

IMG_0.MOV

What a great place to swim! Oh, I miss the West Coast. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You do a garden with no sprinklers?  No easy trick around here.  It's probably hotter here than your location though.

I have drip irrigation.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

39 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I was wondering why I didn't get a weenie on my posts today. 

Same here lol

14 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I don’t know what he did but free my boy. Forum is boring without him

I didn't even know he got banned til now. Pretty sure what he got banned for was saying "But did you know MossMans **** is wet?" in response to my post about being under evacuation. I assume it was just the straw that broke the camels back. 

 

I kinda miss the downvotes already 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Same here lol

I didn't even know he got banned til now. Pretty sure what he got banned for was saying "But did you know MossMans **** is wet?" in response to my post about being under evacuation. I assume it was just the straw that broke the camels back. 

 

I kinda miss the downvotes already 

I was the one that originally said his deck is wet, I am still here..... the hierarchy here tends to hold childish grudges so.....

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

50 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Please keep us posted. Any rain for you in the near term?

Nope, only potential rain coming up is Tuesday night but if the fires can't be contained my house will already be burnt by then so it doesn't matter.

Just constantly checking for updates from the forest service as they're the ones who update us about fire progress, but they're too busy making posts like this than to actually tell us how far away the fire is, we only get to find out every morning it seems like.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

31 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Shuksan has impressive south facing glaciers but it's not a volcano.

Sulphide Glacier is a total beast. Lots of spicy mountaineering routes on shuksan

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Nope, only potential rain coming up is Tuesday night but if the fires can't be contained my house will already be burnt by then so it doesn't matter.

Just constantly checking for updates from the forest service as they're the ones who update us about fire progress, but they're too busy making posts like this than to actually tell us how far away the fire is, we only get to find out every morning it seems like.

Looks like some of the closer stations to the fire picked up close to .30” so I would bet that put a decent dent in the spread. I’m fairly familiar with that area just to the west of Sunriver and it is pretty well-managed (logged) so it’s much easier to contain.  I think Sunriver is pretty safe.

[Front Ranger]

GFS and CMC continue to say it's full blown fall going forward. Let's see if the Euro moves in that direction tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

GFS and CMC continue to say it's full blown fall going forward. Let's see if the Euro moves in that direction tonight.

Goodness we deserve it after this torch of a summer. 37 90+ days at SLE. 6-7 100+

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Jesse, he will be back before the end of the year I’m guessing. 

I give it a few weeks before he CulverJoshes his way back in on an alt.

[LowerGarfield]

Curently at 0.11 or 0.12, took the trash out and checked the gauge. Curious to see what I get. Light rain again after a pause earlier.

[DeepFriedEgg]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Goodness we deserve it after this torch of a summer. 37 90+ days at SLE. 6-7 100+

Nah man, way too early for fall. Wasting all the troughing anyways

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Nah man, way too early for fall. Wasting all the troughing anyways

Lol. The GFS doesn’t even show 1/2 of rain most places in the next two weeks. 

[snow_wizard]

Things get a wee bit chilly a bit down the road.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Jesse, he will be back before the end of the year I’m guessing. 

Yup.

[SnowWillarrive]

I’d be fine if the weather transitions soon. Im tired of seeing our climate die

[iFred]

22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I give it a few weeks before he CulverJoshes his way back in on an alt.

Nope. iptables and user agent fingerprinting will take care of that tomorrow.

It is a permanent ban, much like the four previous permanent bans. The deck comments were not the reason but were the final straw.

Feel free to DM mods/admins with any questions or concerns. There is history here that isn’t limited to a one time thing or to what was posted publicly.

For the folks in the Aberdeen micropolitan area who feel like YET ANOTHER GREAT MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE HAS TAKEN PLACE, please note that this privately managed space enjoys certain privileges when taking into account membership and access. Those privileges can be revoked at anytime as determined by the administration team and are done so under the scrutiny of the team. While this means unilateral action is often not taken, it can happen. Should our brothers and sisters living along the US-12 corridor feel wronged, they are more entitled to voice their opinions, take civil action, and even attempt to overthrow the current administration. Hell, we encourage it.

Just note that your ability to retaliate may be muted at our discretion. 

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Things get a wee bit chilly a bit down the road.

That's what we've been experiencing here in the east. These patterns seem to move around a bit.. I just wonder if that 116F in Phoenix recently, and 100 days over 100 in Las Vegas will carry somewhere into the Winter. The SW, US is actually a pretty good head start area- on monthly and yearly scales in precedes weather conditions in the Midwest and East at a pretty good correlation. They were seeing High pressure way before this -PNA/+NAO long term trend started. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

Nice day hike to Pea Soup Lake yesterday, Lynch Glacier is in sad shape. The Dip Top Gap ice patch is dying rapidly. 

 

IMG_0.MOV

That glacier still has some life in it.  We need a few cold years to fix it up.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nope. iptables and user agent fingerprinting will take care of that tomorrow.

It is a permanent ban, much like the four previous permanent bans. The deck comments were not the reason but were the final straw.

Feel free to DM mods/admins with any questions or concerns. There is history here that isn’t limited to a one time thing or to what was posted publicly.

For the folks in the Aberdeen micropolitan area who feel like YET ANOTHER GREAT MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE HAS TAKEN PLACE, please note that this privately managed space enjoys certain privileges when taking into account membership and access. Those privileges can be revoked at anytime as determined by the administration team and are done so under the scrutiny of the team. While this means unilateral action is often not taken, it can happen. Should our brothers and sisters living along the US-12 corridor feel wronged, they are more entitled to voice their opinions, take civil action, and even attempt to overthrow the current administration. Hell, we encourage it.

Just note that your ability to retaliate may be muted at our discretion. 

 

Micropolitan? 

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’d be fine if the weather transitions soon. Im tired of seeing our climate die

It's only summer which has never been terribly exciting here anyway.  Our summers are very nice though.

Our summer to autumn transitions have been pretty abrupt in recent years.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Timmy said:

Looks like some of the closer stations to the fire picked up close to .30” so I would bet that put a decent dent in the spread. I’m fairly familiar with that area just to the west of Sunriver and it is pretty well-managed (logged) so it’s much easier to contain.  I think Sunriver is pretty safe.

Not sure where you pulled that .3" number from but it's definitely wrong, eastern area of the fire probably didn't get more than .1, if even.

But I agree, Sunriver is in pretty good hands, I almost guarantee it gets contained, but even if it's just a 1 or 2% chance it reaches here, we should take all precautions we would if it was a 90% chance, better safe than sorry. Theres definitely no possible way it'll reach the resort area of the town, I don't see a wind setup that a fire could cross the Deschutes.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

30 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nope. iptables and user agent fingerprinting will take care of that tomorrow.

It is a permanent ban, much like the four previous permanent bans. The deck comments were not the reason but were the final straw.

Feel free to DM mods/admins with any questions or concerns. There is history here that isn’t limited to a one time thing or to what was posted publicly.

For the folks in the Aberdeen micropolitan area who feel like YET ANOTHER GREAT MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE HAS TAKEN PLACE, please note that this privately managed space enjoys certain privileges when taking into account membership and access. Those privileges can be revoked at anytime as determined by the administration team and are done so under the scrutiny of the team. While this means unilateral action is often not taken, it can happen. Should our brothers and sisters living along the US-12 corridor feel wronged, they are more entitled to voice their opinions, take civil action, and even attempt to overthrow the current administration. Hell, we encourage it.

Just note that your ability to retaliate may be muted at our discretion. 

 

Uh what? Please don't tell me you'll never let him on here again, although annoying, he's funny and a perfect piece that holds together the forum. There isn't a single person here I'd get rid of if I could.

[Tanis Leach]

Well, I can't find the sports thread:

 

PAC 12 supposedly inviting San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State and CSU at 6 am tomorrow/today. 

 

https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1834098490818924716?s=46

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well hello.  I am Chris, thank you so much for not trying too hard to hide who you are you talking about, such an honor.

I really tried to make it work. I've had long, excruciating conversations with him trying to calm him down. We really had no other option.

This is a weather forum, not a drama forum. If that means Tim doesn't get his "deserved comeuppance" for "irresponsibly rooting for warm weather" and the discussion returns to "boring" weather talk (and weed discussions lol), it's a victory in my book.

I'm not having a power trip. I just don't want to have to people manage.

[Meatyorologist]

For the record this is the second person I've had a hand in banning in one and a half years moderating here. On a website with hundreds of users.

If anyone really thinks I'm unreasonable, please just lay it on me. I'm not all-knowing or infalliable. Doesn't mean I will agree, but I'd still like to hear it.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Yeah, it does run into the NAO domain. We just can't get the Pacific to cooperate with the Atlantic lately.. in the last 17 years, >65% of -NAO's have been with -pna or +epo, compared to ~55-60% otherwise

That doesn’t surprise me since -NAO constructively teleconnects with -PNA. Very rare to achieve -NAO/+PNA outside healthy niño years (or years transitioning into El Niño).

Which is why the last multidecadal -NAO regime (1950s-70s) was also -PNA leaning. And when the NAO flipped substantially positive 1974-76, it was followed shortly thereafter by the pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PMM/+PDO.

[StormchaserChuck1]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

That doesn’t surprise me since -NAO constructively teleconnects with -PNA. Very difficult to achieve -NAO/+PNA outside healthy niño years (or years transitioning into El Niño).

Which is why the last multidecadal -NAO regime (1950s-70s) was also -PNA leaning. And when the NAO flipped substantially positive 1974-76, it was followed shortly thereafter by the pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PMM/+PDO.

AAM is also a condition where you will get -NAO/+PNA or +NAO/-PNA. But the AAM is very related to ENSO, as you say. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

AAM is also a condition where you will get -NAO/+PNA or +NAO/-PNA. But the AAM is very related to ENSO, as you say. 

Yeah often get that AAM spike during the 2nd half of winters that precede the transition to El Niño, which is why -NAO/+PNA combo is more frequent mid-Jan onwards, even in ENSO neutral winters.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

That doesn’t surprise me since -NAO constructively teleconnects with -PNA. Very rare to achieve -NAO/+PNA outside healthy niño years (or years transitioning into El Niño).

Which is why the last multidecadal -NAO regime (1950s-70s) was also -PNA leaning. And when the NAO flipped substantially positive 1974-76, it was followed shortly thereafter by the pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PMM/+PDO.

Any speculation why that shift in mid 70s yielded the two spectacular winters (mostly in the East) 1976-77, and 1978-79?  Both of those were total stand outs with 1978-79 being completely nationwide. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation why that shift in mid 70s yielded the two spectacular winters (mostly in the East) 1976-77, and 1978-79?  Both of those were total stand outs with 1978-79 being completely nationwide. 

We were coming off of 5/6 La Nina years, which I always contest is a cold phase index. I did some research a little while ago about PNA shifts, and those years came up, but I don't completely remember right now sorry lol. I think it was pointing to a +PNA in 2026-28 though. 

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation why that shift in mid 70s yielded the two spectacular winters (mostly in the East) 1976-77, and 1978-79?  Both of those were total stand outs with 1978-79 being completely nationwide. 

Because the termination of the -PNA/-NAO regime also opened the door to -EPO/+TNH, which is actually a colder pattern nationally because the dominant TPV lobe is on our side of the pole (instead of Eurasia during the -NAO/-PNA low frequency state).

[Meatyorologist]

@GHweatherChris I'm going to post this publicly since I want there to be 100% transparency. The mod response on this has been admittedly scattered and incommunicative so I want to be as human as possible since I know you and Jesse get along.

Jesse's long-term behavior has been overtly unacceptable. Making arch enemies of those he disagrees with (Tim, Matt, Randy et al), rehashing old arguments over and over again for his own amusement, picking on the same individuals over and over again (Jim, Bryan). It's all immature, stupid behavor unbefitting of a weather forum. If you want specific posts as evidence you'll need to give me a few days as the posts are numerous and I really don't have time at 12:30am to sift through to find the best ones.

Honestly it makes me a little sick to do this. Jesse's a knowledgeable, mostly like-minded, bright individual with useful weather knowledge. And I know he really does care about participating here. But we have many others on this forum just like him, but without the BS.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

We were coming off of 5/6 La Nina years, which I always contest is a cold phase index. I did some research a little while ago about PNA shifts, and those years came up big, but I don't completely remember right now sorry lol. I think it was pointing to a +PNA in 2026-28 though. 

Definitely agree re: +PNA/+TNH (and correspondingly +PMM/+PDO) shift for the second half of the 2020s. The intra-decadal extension of the IPWP equatorial flank is right on our doorstep now.

[Deweydog]

Gresham has been getting hammered tonight. And not the people of Gresham getting hammered because that happens EVERY night. 

[Timmy]

3 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Not sure where you pulled that .3" number from but it's definitely wrong, eastern area of the fire probably didn't get more than .1, if even.

But I agree, Sunriver is in pretty good hands, I almost guarantee it gets contained, but even if it's just a 1 or 2% chance it reaches here, we should take all precautions we would if it was a 90% chance, better safe than sorry. Theres definitely no possible way it'll reach the resort area of the town, I don't see a wind setup that a fire could cross the Deschutes.

I am just looking at weather stations in the area. There are a couple in the cascade lakes area including near cultus (.40).

[MossMan]

7 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Same here lol

I didn't even know he got banned til now. Pretty sure what he got banned for was saying "But did you know MossMans **** is wet?" in response to my post about being under evacuation. I assume it was just the straw that broke the camels back. 

 

I kinda miss the downvotes already 

Guess I missed that entire thing, must have been after I went to bed the other night. I noticed my deck moistening up as I was heading to bed and posted about it, then crashed. 
 

Jesse must have taken it from there lol. 

[MossMan]

4 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Well, I can't find the sports thread:

 

PAC 12 supposedly inviting San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State and CSU at 6 am tomorrow/today. 

 

https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1834098490818924716?s=46

Here you go!