September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

sometimes you have to PAY TO PLAY

1988 was similar to 2022. It was a very warm fall.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to blindly believe some things going in for those to mean much.  For example I've recently found ice core data that suggests Greenland has had periods of 8 degrees of warming in a 50 year period in the past.  This narrative about the rate of warming is a new thing your side has come up with recently to mitigate the effects of people who have countered the man caused global warming narrative with facts about natural climate change in the past.  Things like the fact Seattle was under 2000 feet of ice fairly recently (by geologic time standards), or the fact there have been examples of 8 feet of sea level change in a century in the past.  The numbers they are pointing to as being a crisis are laughable.

lol 'your side'. tell us how you really feel.  there are no 'sides' to climate change. its not a contest or a football game

[Tanis Leach]

Now both Thursday and Friday are 100+ at PDX. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Depressing end of the week incoming.

Feels like it never stops.

I'm going to assume that the medieval warm period happened much faster than this cycle.

[FroYoBro]

The drizzle storm continues here! 

[Phil]

From Ian Livingston at CWG.

Ugly summer.

[Phil]

Here’s how summer 2024 finished across the CONUS.

As expected, almost no negative departures anywhere.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Portland has a long way to go to reach their forecast high of 75 F.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, even though climate models suggested that heat wave was something like 100 times more likely because of the amount our climate has warmed so far, I remember reading that even now a heatwave that intense is only supposed to happen every couple decades or so. 

There literally has not been any other heatwave in the history of the U.S. as anomalous as June 2021.

Have to remember...what the PNW has seen in recent summers does not reflect what the vast majority of people are seeing.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol 'your side'. tell us how you really feel.  there are no 'sides' to climate change. its not a contest or a football game

There are many “sides”, actually.

Only charlatans and their dimwit cult followers claim to possess all the facts re: climate change. In reality it’s a complicated science with significant uncertainties.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Ed Berry is probably the most knowledgeable person I have ever come across on the complex workings of the atmosphere and he is a firm man caused climate change denier.  This guy is way above the pay grade of almost any meteorologist out there.  Here is a snippet from the internet about him.

Berry's PhD thesis is still cited as a breakthrough in cloud physics and numerical modeling.

It's just laughable to read the ramblings of armchair meteorologists that try to discredit him.  This is way more complicated than you make it out to be.

Whoa, an Ed Berry reference. Blast from the past!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Tanis Leach said:

Now both Thursday and Friday are 100+ at PDX. 

I'll be flying into PDX Friday. Driving down to Eugene that day. Wish the weekend was shaping up to be a bit cooler.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Blah blah blah deniers always have some bs explanation whether it’s sunspots or saying variations are normal or something. I would assume anyone on a weather forum would be above man caused warming denial, it’s basic atmospheric physics. What percentage of scientists agree?

Anthropogenically-driven increases in CO^2 are indeed responsible for a statistically significant portion of the warming since the end of WWII. Elementary radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

However, the warming and sea level rise from the 1600s to the 1940s cannot be explained by CO^2 increases, and it’s likely at least some of the post 1940s warming is a continuation of this long term warming trend.

Attribution is the big conundrum in climate science today. And it’s a difficult puzzle to solve as any proposed answers are rendered hypothetical by default.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

The massive fleece blankets they sell at Costco.

So cozy…

UHI issues creeping into Ridgefield with the new store. Thankfully I'm a bit south.

[T-Town]

Beautiful day in Central Wa. 

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Here’s how summer 2024 finished across the CONUS.

As expected, almost no negative departures anywhere.

Not quite "record hottest by a wide margin", though...

[Front Ranger]

Nice crash on the Euro, at least.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

UHI issues creeping into Ridgefield with the new store. Thankfully I'm a bit south.

HIO is right next to a Costco TOO.

[Slushy Inch]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anthropogenically-driven increases in CO^2 are indeed responsible for a statistically significant portion of the warming since the end of WWII. Elementary radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

However, the warming and sea level rise from the 1600s to the 1940s cannot be explained by CO^2 increases, and it’s likely at least some of the post 1940s warming is a continuation of this long term warming trend.

Attribution is the big conundrum in climate science today. And it’s a difficult puzzle to solve as any proposed answers are rendered hypothetical by default.

From what I’m reading on climate.gov the temperature increase per decade has tripled since 1982 compared to 1850 to 1982. Increase probably coincides with the massive increase of c02 output of China and India.

[Tenochtitlan]

55 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There literally has not been any other heatwave in the history of the U.S. as anomalous as June 2021.

Have to remember...what the PNW has seen in recent summers does not reflect what the vast majority of people are seeing.

It falls in line with a worldwide trend of crazy, unprecedented heatwaves.

In the US, I can think of a few similar events in recent years: Phoenix and Las Vegas shattering their previous hottest months by multiple degrees, and that one insane March heatwave in the Midwest several years ago. June 2021 is the most anomalous one though, I think. 
Europe has also had record-shattering heatwaves in recent years and there was that horrible one in China a couple summers ago when people were posting pictures of sweating walls to social media (because of the humidity). 

[Tenochtitlan]

36 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not quite "record hottest by a wide margin", though...

Not for the country as a whole, but regionally yes (Southwest).

[Tenochtitlan]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s all going to come down to how much it effects crops. Considering how the fear over disease and extreme weather is so overblown I guess everyone will move closer to the poles along with crops.

The problem is that the new ideal climate zones for growing crops might not have fertile soil. Like the Canadian Shield has just a thin layer of soil because of glacial scouring during the Ice Age, and would be terrible for growing crops even if its climate shifts from subarctic to warm-summer humid Continental. I wonder if there will be massive efforts to move soil northward in the future. 

[SpaceRace22]

Oh my

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Oh my

New euro monthlies should be out soon too

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

New euro monthlies should be out soon too

I've been F5ing that one for the last day or so lol. Anyone know when that one usually comes out? The run is supposed to start at 00z on the 1st of the month, but I have no idea when it actually tends to publish.

[MossMan]

Up to 63. I brought the jetski home. Its over.

Not because of the weather but because my 32yr old jetski lift that I bought used from the neighbor back in the mid 90’s finally had enough and broke in a major way, so I had no way of keeping it secure and out of the water.

Massive first world problems going on today! 

[Tyler Mode]

Was the 0.05" worth it today with 100 temps coming?  Not really.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Pretty clear cooldown coming September 8th/9th as I said a week ago.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Up to 63. I brought the jetski home. Its over.

Not because of the weather but because my 32yr old jetski lift that I bought used from the neighbor back in the mid 90’s finally had enough and broke in a major way, so I had no way of keeping it secure and out of the water.

Massive first world problems going on today! 

Sorry for your loss. 

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Pretty clear cooldown coming September 8th/9th as I said a week ago.

With only a couple dozen people on and only five pages in on the 2nd day of the month, I'd have to say that the cool down is probably a bust.

[TacomaWx]

Drizzly out there right meow. 68/60 today after a 82/57 day yesterday. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Oh my

That isn’t good for us. Cancel winter

[T-Town]

Windy as a mofo here. Marine layer is trying to sneak over the mountains. 

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Oh my

Sorry Goldendale.

[Ken in Wood Village]

This storm next to Antelope is impressive. It's producing a boat load of lightning

[Thermal Trough]

20 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Plus a main course arctic blast and 35 inches of snow in January.

I’m thinking something big happens later this Fall. Probably a big Sou’Wester or an early season Arctic Blast. I’m leaning more towards the Arctic Blast but we’re due for a big windstorm.

[Thermal Trough]

5 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Now both Thursday and Friday are 100+ at PDX. 

Marks going with 100 on Thursday and Rod on Friday. Meteored has 100/102 for me and it’s had a cool bias this summer. I like PDX’s chances to get a 100 triple both days.  

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

From what I’m reading on climate.gov the temperature increase per decade has tripled since 1982 compared to 1850 to 1982. Increase probably coincides with the massive increase of c02 output of China and India.

Correct, human-caused CO^2 emissions have significantly accelerated the warming that was already ongoing post-LIA.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol 'your side'. tell us how you really feel.  there are no 'sides' to climate change. its not a contest or a football game

There kind of is.  It has become so incredibly politicized.  There are now people who have a vested interest in man caused climate change being real.  Bad science can easily come from that.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

I’m thinking something big happens later this Fall. Probably a big Sou’Wester or an early season Arctic Blast. I’m leaning more towards the Arctic Blast but we’re due for a big windstorm.

No doubt we are due for a big southerly wind storm, but La Nina is not what you want for that to happen.  Not impossible, but less likely.