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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've always told people our upper end snowfall potential is astounding. While the east coast obviously has more readily available Arctic air to tap into, what it doesn't have is the ability to overlap an indetefinite amount of moisture over an indefinite amount of time, so long as the windflow allows. When you set the precipitation potential to infinity, so long as you have the general ability to get Arctic air, your snowfall potential skyrockets to infinity as well.

Yeah, it’s an entirely different equation out here. 70% of the time it gets very cold it doesn’t snow or precipitate at all.

Big nor’easters are awesome in terms of snowfall rates/dynamics, but they don’t last long enough to produce the 6+ foot totals you’re talking about. At least not individually.

Our last big blizzard was 2016 which dropped 3+ feet in 24hrs. If that had lasted 3 days…man that would be something.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've always told people our upper end snowfall potential is astounding. While the east coast obviously has more readily available Arctic air to tap into, what it doesn't have is the ability to overlap an indetefinite amount of moisture over an indefinite amount of time, so long as the windflow allows. When you set the precipitation potential to infinity, so long as you have the general ability to get Arctic air, your snowfall potential skyrockets to infinity as well.

Nailed it.  The potential is truly astounding.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Jan 1880 had two extremely anomalous low pressure centers take the dream track for Puget Sound snowfall with a baroclinic band (atmospheric river) in between.  The amazing thing is it's probably the highest 3 to 4 day total ever recorded for liquid precip in the area and it fell as snow!  Probably due to warm / moist air interacting with the Arctic air just to the north.  We know there was Arctic air in the north interior of WA thanks to reports from Bellingham.  There is a remarkably clear picture of this storm when you put all of the different sources of information together. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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9 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

https://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-city-life/biggest-snowstorms-seattle-history-snowpocalypse
 

This article mentions a Seattle snow event I wasn’t aware of, March 2002. I actually think I vaguely remember it from my childhood. Sounds like another awesome convergence zone snow. 

I remember this.  I was a Jr in HS.  I don't recall the depths here in Woodinville but recall having a day off from school and taking advantage with friends.

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've always told people our upper end snowfall potential is astounding. While the east coast obviously has more readily available Arctic air to tap into, what it doesn't have is the ability to overlap an indetefinite amount of moisture over an indefinite amount of time, so long as the windflow allows. When you set the precipitation potential to infinity, so long as you have the general ability to get Arctic air, your snowfall potential skyrockets to infinity as well.

That’s why we go so crazy for those pepto snow maps the models put out. 

Does anyone remember when Madrid got like 2 feet of snow a few years ago? Their winter climate is similar to Portland or Seattle but dryer. If it can happen there, it can happen here, even with our warming climate! Even if the yearly chance might be one in fifty or something. 

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35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 1880 had two extremely anomalous low pressure centers take the dream track for Puget Sound snowfall with a baroclinic band (atmospheric river) in between.  The amazing thing is it's probably the highest 3 to 4 day total ever recorded for liquid precip in the area and it fell as snow!  Probably due to warm / moist air interacting with the Arctic air just to the north.  We know there was Arctic air in the north interior of WA thanks to reports from Bellingham.  There is a remarkably clear picture of this storm when you put all of the different sources of information together. 

Whats interesting is the same thing happened in California in April 1880. Arctic air met a subtropical source. it is Sacramento's biggest rainfall storm at 7.5" of precip. Donner summit had 298" of snow during that storm with like 150" at lake level.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking ahead on the extended models, we see generally warm weather continuing through the end of the year. The next best chance at a below average month is January. March could be nippy too. It will all be here before we know it. 

I'll be shocked if one of the fall months isn't cold.  It's possible I'm wrong though when you look at years like 1988.  This just seems to have a different vibe than 88 though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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22 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Whats interesting is the same thing happened in California in April 1880. Arctic air met a subtropical source. it is Sacramento's biggest rainfall storm at 7.5" of precip. Donner summit had 298" of snow during that storm with like 150" at lake level.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

1862 and 1880 were very special years for some reason.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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24 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That’s why we go so crazy for those pepto snow maps the models put out. 

Does anyone remember when Madrid got like 2 feet of snow a few years ago? Their winter climate is similar to Portland or Seattle but dryer. If it can happen there, it can happen here, even with our warming climate! Even if the yearly chance might be one in fifty or something. 

I would bet Madrid is a fair bit warmer than SEA and PDX in the winter.  Just guessing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've always told people our upper end snowfall potential is astounding. While the east coast obviously has more readily available Arctic air to tap into, what it doesn't have is the ability to overlap an indetefinite amount of moisture over an indefinite amount of time, so long as the windflow allows. When you set the precipitation potential to infinity, so long as you have the general ability to get Arctic air, your snowfall potential skyrockets to infinity as well.

We can put numbers to this by looking at the WSDOT snowfall data in the passes or the SNOTEL sites elsewhere in the mountains. Snoqualmie Pass can hit 75" of snow in a week on the regular. I wouldn't be surprised if a 100-year snowfall event at Snoqualmie Pass is something like 150"-200" in a week (or like 20-25" of liquid water equivalent). 

He's another fun one -- in grad school we put instruments on a number of windward slopes of the Olympic Mountains. Many of our sites would hit the jackpot if moisture flow was from a certain wind direction but get shadowed by one of then nearby ridgers if it shifted a bit. However, we had a trailer on a USFS road near Wynoochee Pass around 3,500 ft elevation which sat in the perfect spot to get hammered from both southerly and southwesterly flow and it didn't seem to care too much if the wind shifted a bit as long it was generally from that direction. During one stormy period in early December 2015, that trailer picked up 40 inches of liquid equivalent in 10 days. It was about half rain and half snow...but just imagine, Seattle's entire annual rainfall falling in barely over a week. 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would bet Madrid is a fair bit warmer than SEA and PDX in the winter.  Just guessing.

It’s a couple degrees warmer. Coldest month averages 49/37. But it only gets about a third the precipitation in winter that Seattle and Portland do.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid

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2 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

It’s a couple degrees warmer. Coldest month averages 49/37. But it only gets about a third the precipitation in winter that Seattle and Portland do.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid

Them getting 2 feet in one storm would be like Seattle getting 3 or 4.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Would be awesome to see some of the more historic high end snowfalls our region has ever seen like 1880…but there’s been some good ones in my lifetime too. We had 13.5” of snow in 18 hours in February 2021. Then 20” of snow in just 3 days during February 2019. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Would be awesome to see some of the more historic high end snowfalls our region has ever seen like 1880…but there’s been some good ones in my lifetime too. We had 13.5” of snow in 18 hours in February 2021. Then 20” of snow in just 3 days during February 2019. 

February 2021 was awesome in Seattle. Only wish the snow could have stayed around a couple more days.

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1 minute ago, Tenochtitlan said:

February 2021 was awesome in Seattle. Only wish the snow could have stayed around a couple more days.

Yeah, it was kind of a bummer that it was only here for about 48 hours. Melted off pretty fast but was still a lot of fun. It’s the single biggest snowstorm I’ve ever seen. December 2008, February 2019 and December 2021 were all multiple snowfalls added up but that snowstorm was pretty incredible for PNW standards. 

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8 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Things get pretty late fall like on the gem 

 

 

IMG_8448.png

EURO is exact opposite of this, and GFS is leaning toward EURO. GEM has been in its own camp for a while now. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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January 2012 was a pretty good one too, somewhat forgotten about since it’s mostly remembered for the devastating ice storm. That was about 10” of snow with over 1” of ice…we don’t typically get severe ice storms as often as western Oregon. One of the more memorable weather events in my lifetime. 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

January 2012 was a pretty good one too, somewhat forgotten about since it’s mostly remembered for the devastating ice storm. That was about 10” of snow with over 1” of ice…we don’t typically get severe ice storms as often as western Oregon. One of the more memorable weather events in my lifetime. 

That was a great one up here! The ice stayed to the south. 

IMG_8073.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be shocked if one of the fall months isn't cold.  It's possible I'm wrong though when you look at years like 1988.  This just seems to have a different vibe than 88 though.

1988 ended up being a near-perfect summer analog out this way, FWIW. Basically a genetic clone in terms of temps, lack of precip/convection, regional circulation pattern, etc.

1988 was also a rapidly maturing +QBO/Niña near solar maximum following a strong Niño. Has to be a leading analog, IMO.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a great one up here! The ice stayed to the south. 

IMG_8073.jpeg

Yeah, the ice was mostly south of Seattle that time. It was pretty crazy in the south sound. Was staying at my grandparents house in Lakewood and we lost power multiple times and there was constantly tree branches breaking. 

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22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

January 2012 was a pretty good one too, somewhat forgotten about since it’s mostly remembered for the devastating ice storm. That was about 10” of snow with over 1” of ice…we don’t typically get severe ice storms as often as western Oregon. One of the more memorable weather events in my lifetime. 

January 2012 was decent in north Seattle. First there was a moderate convergence zone snow, then the overrunning snow that lasted a day longer than predicted. There was a bit of ice then it turned back to snow. I remember being excited when the NWS out out an ice storm warning, then a second winter storm warning.

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10 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

January 2012 was decent in north Seattle. First there was a moderate convergence zone snow, then the overrunning snow that lasted a day longer than predicted. There was a bit of ice then it turned back to snow. I remember being excited when the NWS out out an ice storm warning, then a second winter storm warning.

Even down here I had over 10 inches that month.  A week to 10 days of solid winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I won’t be happy in life till downtown Seattle gets 3-4 feet of snow in one storm. 

It can still happen.  Just takes the right setup.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, it was kind of a bummer that it was only here for about 48 hours. Melted off pretty fast but was still a lot of fun. It’s the single biggest snowstorm I’ve ever seen. December 2008, February 2019 and December 2021 were all multiple snowfalls added up but that snowstorm was pretty incredible for PNW standards. 

Feb 2021 was really odd here.  I got less snow because of the east wind, but the cold lasted for a day longer than most places, because the easterly gradient caused an Arctic boundary to set up just a few miles south and west of me.  While many places were cloudy, around 40 degrees, and melting it snowed two more inches here with temps below freezing.  The curse turned into a blessing in less than a day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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ECMWF get good for chilly nights early in week two.  Northerly flow, clearing skies, and below normal 850s!  If we can maintain the amplified regime this winter it should be fun.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

How the hell did it get to 29 last night with this ungodly air quality? 

Screenshot_20240913-104545_Chrome.jpg

I remember in 2020 people were saying smoke allows radiational cooling while effectively blocking sunlight during the day.  A very effective cooling agent.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Feb 2021 was really odd here.  I got less snow because of the east wind, but the cold lasted for a day longer than most places, because the easterly gradient caused an Arctic boundary to set up just a few miles south and west of me.  While many places were cloudy, around 40 degrees, and melting it snowed two more inches here with temps below freezing.  The curse turned into a blessing in less than a day.

I love when recent events get brought up, I always pop into my pictures and relive them! 
That was a doozy of a weekend!! 

IMG_8088.jpeg

IMG_8090.jpeg

IMG_8091.jpeg

IMG_8086.jpeg

IMG_8092.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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