September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, and the I-5 corridor is just the simplest north/south route through the region. Portland makes a lot of sense as, like many cities, it's at the confluence of major regional rivers - which used to be pretty important for trade/transportation.

Also, Portland is about as far as you could reliably get up the Willamette in a 19th century sailing ship. So it made the logical place to transfer cargo between ocean-going vessels and smaller river vessels.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

First trip to the swamp in September since 1992!

Are you trotting, galloping, or are you avoiding heart palpitations? 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are you trotting, galloping, or are you avoiding heart palpitations? 

Now I get it.  Had to dig way back to come up with that.

[MV_snow]

19 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'd support this if we can keep the smoke away. Obviously rain would be beneficial, but I do have a backpacking trip planned in the North Cascades next weekend and would love nice weather for it.

When I didn’t see the big fat red down arrow on this one, it finally hit me that Jesse was gone for good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

[MossMan]

Just finished mowing as the first drops begin to fall! 

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

Awesome boat!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I tell you lake havasu is amazing,  the water 3 weeks ago was 91 and around 95 at the shore. I've never experienced anything like it. The nightlife is rocking down there. Boats everywhere.  It's a boating paradise 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Awesome boat!! 

 Look at the engine! Mercury racing 502 cubic inch with a blower. Factory race engine 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The boat is 22 years old but mint. Only 100 hrs on her. Dude who owned it was very ocd.

[CloudJunkie]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

It's still so funny how a guy bought London Bridge and had it shipped to Lake Havasu.

[High Desert Mat?]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be shocked if one of the fall months isn't cold.  It's possible I'm wrong though when you look at years like 1988.  This just seems to have a different vibe than 88 though.

I think one will be WET. Always a good precursor to a good winter. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Are you trotting, galloping, or are you avoiding heart palpitations? 

The food prices came with free palpitations, which is nice.

Just won this fashionable and attractive prize for my nephew. The start of a good (not great) partnership!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Over for now. 0.23" so far.

[T-Town]

Enjoying a cold beverage and watching the rain with the heater going. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

OMG Steve! Great to have you back! We miss you here during the offseason.

Looking forward to the regular season and having you with us. Hope y’all get buried this winter. Of all the people on here I feel like y’all deserve mother nature’s rewards more than any of us.

Truly thankful for your graciousness.

[Front Ranger]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

1988 ended up being a near-perfect summer analog out this way, FWIW. Basically a genetic clone in terms of temps, lack of precip/convection, regional circulation pattern, etc.

1988 was also a rapidly maturing +QBO/Niña near solar maximum following a strong Niño. Has to be a leading analog, IMO.

Almost sounds like you're suggesting a connection between summer analog patterns and winter analog patterns. Which would be kinda weird considering you are adamantly opposed to the notion of any sort of regional fall/winter correlation 

Nationally, tough to argue summer 2024 was much like 1988. 

 

\

 

Regardless, I don't think winter analogs have much relationship to summer analogs. 1988-89 could well be a decent analog for the coming winter - though ENSO strength and PDO phase is significantly different this year.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm happy to see January looking good.  That month has been tremendously underachieving this century so far.  Historically January far exceeds any other winter month for depth of cold, duration of cold, and snowfall.

Kinda funny that OLM's record warm January is from the 1950s.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

44 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

Welcome back!

[Tenochtitlan]

It would be awesome to have a snowy and cold January. Kind of wild how none of the great regional events we’ve had in the last decade have been in January, since late December and early January has the coldest averages of the whole year. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Tenochtitlan said:

It would be awesome to have a snowy and cold January. Kind of wild how none of the great regional events we’ve had in the last decade have been in January, since late December and early January has the coldest averages of the whole year. 

Jan 2024 had a pretty exceptional regional event. At least for high temps.

[Tenochtitlan]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2024 had a pretty exceptional regional event. At least for high temps.

I don’t really count it because it only snowed a little in Seattle and Portland. but yeah it did get cold. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2024 had a pretty exceptional regional event. At least for high temps.

That ice storm was devastating but incredible. Over 2" of ice I did not think that was possible. It was a very powerful low-level cold airmass. If the upper levels had cooperated, we would've had like 2-3 feet of snow here.

[MossMan]

If I had my way I would love to see an epic December over an epic January. Though having events to track in January and February does help pass the time during those otherwise post holiday season boring months. 

[BLI snowman]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 Look at the engine! Mercury racing 502 cubic inch with a blower. Factory race engine 

 

She's a beaut!

Was just thinking I bet you'd be back on here any day now. Rob should be close behind.

[Tenochtitlan]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That ice storm was devastating but incredible. Over 2" of ice I did not think that was possible. It was a very powerful low-level cold airmass.

It was crazy how long the ice stuck around, too. The streets in Portland were sheets of ice for a solid four days.

I had kind of bad timing on that event. We headed to Bellingham just as the mini blizzard started in Portland, so we missed it. Then when we were in Bellingham it was 9 degrees, but we missed the coldest temps there and the big snowstorm they had a couple days later.

On the plus side, it was amazing to see ice in the Nooksack river, and we still got to see snowy/icy Portland for the first time.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

If I had my way I would love to see an epic December over an epic January. Though having events to track in January and February does help pass the time during those otherwise post holiday season boring months. 

How about an epic month stretching from Dec 15 to Jan 15? 

Sorry dewey...no white MLK day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

She's a beaut!

Was just thinking I bet you'd be back on here any day now. Rob should be close behind.

Gotta get that night shift going!!

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Almost sounds like you're suggesting a connection between summer analog patterns and winter analog patterns. Which would be kinda weird considering you are adamantly opposed to the notion of any sort of regional fall/winter correlation 

Nationally, tough to argue summer 2024 was much like 1988. 

 

\

 

Regardless, I don't think winter analogs have much relationship to summer analogs. 1988-89 could well be a decent analog for the coming winter - though ENSO strength and PDO phase is significantly different this year.

Regarding the PDO...this is kinda fun.

We just witnessed the second most negative PDO summer on record, averaging right around -3 for JJA. Here's the other top 5 -PDO, -ENSO years: 1950 (just a hair more negative than 2024), 1955, 1999, 2008, 2022.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How about an epic month stretching from Dec 15 to Jan 15? 

Sorry dewey...no white MLK day.

That works! 

[GHweatherChris]

Hey @iFred, any idea why when I am accessing the forum when connected to my home internet, phone and computer, the site is very laggy and slow to load if at all (this is the only website having this issue), but when I access the page on my phone away from home on 5G there is zero issue with the loading of the site and pages.....

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

It was crazy how long the ice stuck around, too. The streets in Portland were sheets of ice for a solid four days.

I had kind of bad timing on that event. We headed to Bellingham just as the mini blizzard started in Portland, so we missed it. Then when we were in Bellingham it was 9 degrees, but we missed the coldest temps there and the big snowstorm they had a couple days later.

On the plus side, it was amazing to see ice in the Nooksack river, and we still got to see snowy/icy Portland for the first time.

Yeah it was pretty amazing in Portland. 13 degrees with heavy snow/sleet and 40-50mph gusts on the 13th here. Even on the west side the snow/ice lasted on some roads for a week, probably longer closer towards the gorge.

[kokaneekidz]

57 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The boat is 22 years old but mint. Only 100 hrs on her. Dude who owned it was very ocd.

The ULTIMATE GARAGE queen

[Tenochtitlan]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah it was pretty amazing in Portland. 13 degrees with heavy snow/sleet and 40-50mph gusts on the 13th here. Even on the west side the snow/ice lasted on some roads for a week, probably longer closer towards the gorge.

That’s awesome! Sounds like January 2020 in Bellingham, though I don’t think I saw winds that high in that one. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

That’s awesome! Sounds like January 2020 in Bellingham, though I don’t think I saw winds that high in that one. 

Yeah I could barely see down the street during the peak. It wasn't too much snow (maybe 2-3") but the conditions were extreme. How much did you get in 2020?

[Tenochtitlan]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah I could barely see down the street during the peak. It wasn't too much snow (maybe 2-3") but the conditions were extreme. How much did you get in 2020?

About six inches. It was only 14 degrees when it fell, so it was extremely fluffy powder.

[StormchaserChuck1]

27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Regarding the PDO...this is kinda fun.

We just witnessed the second most negative PDO summer on record, averaging right around -3 for JJA. Here's the other top 5 -PDO, -ENSO years: 1950 (just a hair more negative than 2024), 1955, 1999, 2008, 2022.

Definitely a Winter N. Pacific ridge signal there

Here is the Winter temp correlation with PDO (default is positive)

It's important that it stays this negative though.. Summer rolled forward is pretty weak historically:

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Regarding the PDO...this is kinda fun.

We just witnessed the second most negative PDO summer on record, averaging right around -3 for JJA. Here's the other top 5 -PDO, -ENSO years: 1950 (just a hair more negative than 2024), 1955, 1999, 2008, 2022.

Nice analogs accept 1999.

[CloudJunkie]

The young generation needs to experience this kind of chaos-inducing storm like we had in 1996.

I was a kid in Gig Harbor when this storm crushed the roof of the downtown bowling alley. School was cancelled for an entire week.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice analogs accept 1999.

That was during a major dud era. We have not been in one of those, so I think it's safe to toss it. 

-ENSO was also stronger with that one than all of the others except 1955. One thing I've always noted is that the lower PDO is in proportion to the corresponding ENSO (considering -ENSO usually leads to some degree of -PDO), the better the odds have been historically for a cold winter.