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September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Very good point. I would guess 80% of September precip typically falls in the second half of the month.

Looking like there could be some ridging late month too but atleast there has been some rain this month. Little more in some places than others (shocking)

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15 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a fun summer. Got serious about boating, picked up this 2003 velocity 280 offshore style boat with a 650hp big block with a blower lol. We spent a week at lake Havasu where I bought the boat then came home and spent 4 days at banks lake. Boat is amazing and cruise speed is 55 to 60 with a top speed of 90. Most summer fun I've had in a long time. 

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Your return marks the second to last sign that summer has come to an end and we can all get high off the fumes of H384.

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12 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Welcome back to the forum! That is a VERY nice boat, lots of summer fun potential with that thing!

Heck, I'd use it in winter! Not sure why so many people are so against winter boating, as long as it's not frozen, it's still fun.

For sure, if we get a week of dry weather in the winter I will take it out. This boat is amazing in rough water. I was out in the sound last weekend and we were running 68 mph just cruising through 2 foot chop with white caps. Smooth as could be ride. Boy does it drink gas!!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Sunny morning!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking at the last month though, could and has been much worse thus time of year.

30dPNormWRCC-NW.png

Certainly not accurate for here or SEA.

EDIT:  I thought this was just for this month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Not sure why the ECMWF precip forecasts for this area are so terrible.  SEA ended with .04 so far and MBY had .13.  Way below what it showed.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why the ECMWF precip forecasts for this area are so terrible.  SEA ended with .04 so far and MBY had .13.  Way below what it showed.

precip's hard

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

For sure, if we get a week of dry weather in the winter I will take it out. This boat is amazing in rough water. I was out in the sound last weekend and we were running 68 mph just cruising through 2 foot chop with white caps. Smooth as could be ride. Boy does it drink gas!!

It’s a good thing Jesse is on vacation. Your picking up of boating as a hobby would not set well with him. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

if you follow the discussion, there will be plenty of cold air to tap into come mid october under high latitude blocking 

 

I love October cold waves as long as we aren't in a Nino.

The general consensus is this will be a really good winter for us.  More than just ENSO forced stuff going on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

It’s a good thing Jesse is on vacation. Your picking up of boating as a hobby would not set well with him. 

Would have been a sure down vote.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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51 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s a good thing Jesse is on vacation. Your picking up of boating as a hobby would not set well with him. 

When Jesse was here Snowmizer wanted to go to Alaska to escape 70° sunshine in March.

With no Jesse, Snowmizer is boating in one of the hottest summer climates in the US.

The worm has turned!

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

precip's hard

The ECMWF just seems clueless for the Central Puget Sound at least.  I usually figure half or less of what it shows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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29 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Super Nina time! 

 

 

That spot in the eastern part of Nino 3 is REALLY cold.  I think it will end up moderate at the strongest given the very late start.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

if you follow the discussion, there will be plenty of cold air to tap into come mid october under high latitude blocking 

 

Chris is a very good met too. Not the usual hype guy looking for likes, followers or website subscribers 

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32 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

What’s the earliest snow on record for anywhere in the Western lowlands? 

Earliest snow that I'm aware of anywhere in the lowlands is 10/12/1881, I think there were some snow showers in both the Willamette Valley and around the Puget Sound with an arctic airmass. Probably just very spotty accumulations. 

Seattle's earliest measurable snow in the recordkeeping era is 10/27/1971 and Portland's earliest is 10/29/1935. 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Earliest snow that I'm aware of anywhere in the lowlands is 10/12/1881, I think there were some snow showers in both the Willamette Valley and around the Puget Sound with an arctic airmass. Probably just very spotty accumulations. 

Seattle's earliest measurable snow in the recordkeeping era is 10/27/1971 and Portland's earliest is 10/29/1935. 

Wow, 10/12 is crazy.

Would be amazing to see Halloween snow someday. The earliest snowfall I saw was I think 11/03/17 in Bellingham (the one I posted pictures from on here recently). The second earliest was November 2010 in Seattle.

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5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Wow, 10/12 is crazy.

Would be amazing to see Halloween snow someday. The early snowfall I saw was I think 11/03/17 in Bellingham (the one I posted pictures from on here recently).

We had snow on the ground here on Halloween just last year.  

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Earliest snow that I'm aware of anywhere in the lowlands is 10/12/1881, I think there were some snow showers in both the Willamette Valley and around the Puget Sound with an arctic airmass. Probably just very spotty accumulations. 

Seattle's earliest measurable snow in the recordkeeping era is 10/27/1971 and Portland's earliest is 10/29/1935. 

31/19 day here on October 30/1935, which is pretty remarkable.  Winter took a few months off that year and then February got serious 

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Looking at the visible sat pic I think it's safe to say the ECMWF is way high on rainfall for this afternoon and evening.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

31/19 day here on October 30/1935, which is pretty remarkable.  Winter took a few months off that year and then February got serious 

The 1930s were just full of insane anomalies.  No doubt the October 1935 blast was one for the ages.  Feb 1936 was ridiculously cold as you say.  Then there was the late March cold / snow event which brought significant widespread snowfall.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Earliest snow that I'm aware of anywhere in the lowlands is 10/12/1881, I think there were some snow showers in both the Willamette Valley and around the Puget Sound with an arctic airmass. Probably just very spotty accumulations. 

Seattle's earliest measurable snow in the recordkeeping era is 10/27/1971 and Portland's earliest is 10/29/1935. 

SEA had a trace in late September 1972.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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15 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Wow, 10/12 is crazy.

Would be amazing to see Halloween snow someday. The earliest snowfall I saw was I think 11/03/17 in Bellingham (the one I posted pictures from on here recently). The second earliest was November 2010 in Seattle.

I had snow at my place on Finn Hill in Bothell on October 30, 1984.  Icy roads on Halloween morning.  Bellingham had snow in late October 1991.  The rest of that winter was horrific though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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67 currently with a low of 41, currently gusting 5mph and winds are just about to pickup. HRRR showing about 20mph gusts from 3-10pm, and unfortunately is showing winds reaching about 30mph tommorow night with no precip and humidity around 50%.

No progress on the fire yet, still about 5 miles away and still under level 1 evacuation. Go Beavers!

Did somebody say SNOW?

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Hammered before the Civil War (which the Ducks will be losing). Whooooooo!! C'mon fuckkin dump snow on us all this winter, mother nature!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 51F (Oct 30, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 29F (Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA had a trace in late September 1972.

Just hail, which used to get recorded as snow from time to time. I'm not aware of any legit reports of snow from that month below 2000' and SEA's coldest temp on the trace dates was 44.

Longmire did have a historically early 1.5" on 9/23 so definitely some impressive troughing in that stretch that month.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Just hail, which used to get recorded as snow from time to time. I'm not aware of any legit reports of snow from that month below 2000' and SEA's coldest temp on the trace dates was 44.

Longmire did have a historically early 1.5" on 9/23 so definitely some impressive troughing in that stretch that month.

Yeah.  I wasn't totally sure, because I know they had a day with a low of 35 right in there also.  Beast of an airmass for that time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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