September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct, human-caused CO^2 emissions have significantly accelerated the warming that was already ongoing post-LIA.

I think a lot of that increased CO2 could be from the warmer oceans releasing stored up CO2.  There is a kind of domino effect with all of this.  In all seriousness we need a big volcanic eruption that isn't like Hunga Tonga.  Big eruptions is one thing that has been really lacking in recent decades.

[Tyler Mode]

Forecast high today, 75.  Actual, 66.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

This storm next to Antelope is impressive. It's producing a boat load of lightning

Really wicked looking stuff on the visible sat pic.  Trajectory looks good for something to happen in the Western Lowlands, but I have not looked into that potential at all.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+12

[snow_wizard]

Another gross feeling day today.  In spite of the gloom it almost made a very wet feeling 70.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably more fires east of the Cascades. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

90+ days at SLE

2021: 41

2022: 31

2023: 24

2024: 38 (Projected)

[Tyler Mode]

Light rain now.  Not knowing what was coming, I'd say it's fall.

[Deweydog]

PDX could go from 99 to 70 back to 99 for high in a span of five days. Unusual!!!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

There kind of is.  It has become so incredibly politicized.  There are now people who have a vested interest in man caused climate change being real.  Bad science can easily come from that.

Not to keep this hot dog eating contest going for too long, but are you just going to ignore the wildly obvious incentives oil companies and car manufacturers have to prevent any change in industry technologies? Companies that contract with the very media outlets "your side" gets their information from?

[Deweydog]

[Chewbacca Defense]

66/59 here today under solid overcast.  The sun gave it a fighting chance a couple of times and the sky brightened, but never enough to cast a shadow.  Had a few drops fall right as I was staining part of the fence, luckily not enough to mess up the stain job.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Not for the country as a whole, but regionally yes (Southwest).

Phil predicted it would be hottest summer on record for the U.S., likely by a wide margin.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

It falls in line with a worldwide trend of crazy, unprecedented heatwaves.

In the US, I can think of a few similar events in recent years: Phoenix and Las Vegas shattering their previous hottest months by multiple degrees, and that one insane March heatwave in the Midwest several years ago. June 2021 is the most anomalous one though, I think. 
Europe has also had record-shattering heatwaves in recent years and there was that horrible one in China a couple summers ago when people were posting pictures of sweating walls to social media (because of the humidity). 

It more fits with the PNW seeing more anomalous summer heat than anywhere else in the mid latitudes the past decade.

I've posted the maps before...basically nowhere else has seen heights as anomalous in the warm season - definitely nowhere else in the U.S.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably more fires east of the Cascades. 

I was over there yesterday, and the official sign said very high fire danger.  The rain they had has already vanished.  There were some impressive washes across the back roads there so you can tell they had a huge downpour somewhat recently, but nothing soaked in.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

It more fits with the PNW seeing more anomalous summer heat than anywhere else in the mid latitudes the past decade.

I've posted the maps before...basically nowhere else has seen heights as anomalous in the warm season - definitely nowhere else in the U.S.

Yup.  This area has had about the biggest increase in summer temps anywhere on the globe.  Some places have actually had cooling at the same time.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to keep this hot dog eating contest going for too long, but are you just going to ignore the wildly obvious incentives oil companies and car manufacturers have to prevent any change in industry technologies? Companies that contract with the very media outlets "your side" gets their information from?

Good point.  There are greedy special interests on both sides of the issue.  Does not make for good science.

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  There are greedy special interests on both sides of the issue.  Does not make for good science.

Ah yes the greedy wind and solar industry.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ah yes the greedy wind and solar industry 

Of course they want to believe the man caused global warming theory.  Job security and more money for them. 

Not to get political but some groups view it as a means to get people to do what they want them to do.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to keep this hot dog eating contest going for too long, but are you just going to ignore the wildly obvious incentives oil companies and car manufacturers have to prevent any change in industry technologies? Companies that contract with the very media outlets "your side" gets their information from?

As well as the vested political interests of those who long preached that it was all a hoax.

(Probably about time for this thread to be shunted to the politics forum.)

[ShawniganLake]

Partly to mostly sunny and 75 today.  Nice September day  

[High Desert Mathew]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As well as the vested political interests of those who long preached that it was all a hoax.

(Probably about time for this thread to be shunted to the politics forum.)

Just looked around. Where is the political thread? Didn’t see it on the main page. 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Partly to mostly sunny and 75 today.  Nice September day  

Absolutely gray here all day.  It only reached 68, but the air was soggy.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Just looked around. Where is the political thread? Didn’t see it on the main page. 

Off topic

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F and clear. Nice night.

Hopefully going to be a very dynamic interseasonality period before settling in with some proper blocking and Arctic airmasses after Thanksgiving.

[SpaceRace22]

The CFS keeps doubling down on December. -14F monthly anomaly anyone? 

Strong signal for a wet October in basically all of the seasonal and ultra long range models too. The pieces are definitely falling into place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

O6z had some rain next week. Bring it on. 

[MossMan]

Cloudy and 58. 

[Phishy Wx]

Hot as Balls, now with a side of Smoke!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The CFS keeps doubling down on December. -14F monthly anomaly anyone? 

Strong signal for a wet October in basically all of the seasonal and ultra long range models too. The pieces are definitely falling into place.

 

The CFS is definitely the biggest piece of...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Off topic

By which he means it is in the off-topic section of this site, specifically:

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/32203-politer-politics/page/16/

[Front Ranger]

Interesting.

 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interesting.

 

I read an article where they are experiencing abnormal desert rains in saharan africa this summer and its thrown the whole climate cycle off in the Atlantic basin.  also the 'New' Atlantic La Nina may be contributing. 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interesting.

 

Lots of smart folks out there providing useful analysis and context about the quiet hurricane season...and then you have Maue with another sarcastic post that contributes nothing to the conversation. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interesting.

 

Saw an interesting post somewhere on x that the waves that usually come off of Africa to seed the tropics are propagating north over the Sahara.  Its seeing record rainfall from what I read.  

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I read an article where they are experiencing abnormal desert rains in saharan africa this summer and its thrown the whole climate cycle off in the Atlantic basin.  also the 'New' Atlantic La Nina may be contributing. 

Beat me to it!

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Lots of smart folks out there providing useful analysis and context about the quiet hurricane season...and then you have Maue with another sarcastic post that contributes nothing to the conversation. 

Posting on the internet should require a license.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Lots of smart folks out there providing useful analysis and context about the quiet hurricane season...and then you have Maue with another sarcastic post that contributes nothing to the conversation. 

Maue is the worst, worse than Bastardi

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Saw an interesting post somewhere on x that the waves that usually come off of Africa to seed the tropics are propagating north over the Sahara.  Its seeing record rainfall from what I read.  

There was a pretty interesting France24 special how this has been going on for the past few years with an increasing frequency and intensity.

I haven't had time to dig into deeply, but I wonder if this means there hasn't been much dust making across either and the possible impacts to cloud seeding downstream.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like a nice chilly trough showing up for the early part of week 2.  Maybe we will slip into autumn without any big hiccups.  We'll see.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

56F and clear. Nice night.

Hopefully going to be a very dynamic interseasonality period before settling in with some proper blocking and Arctic airmasses after Thanksgiving.

Love the optimism!  

Jealous of your clear cool night.