September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Doom Buster]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I read an article where they are experiencing abnormal desert rains in saharan africa this summer and its thrown the whole climate cycle off in the Atlantic basin.  also the 'New' Atlantic La Nina may be contributing. 

Yeah, lots of theories out there. But just goes to show how far we are from fully understanding our climate system.

[Doom Buster]

24 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Lots of smart folks out there providing useful analysis and context about the quiet hurricane season...and then you have Maue with another sarcastic post that contributes nothing to the conversation. 

Read the whole thread.

[Doom Buster]

28 minutes ago, iFred said:

Posting on the internet should require a license.

Censorship FTW!

To be fair, Maue is at least a meteorologist. Some here have recently argued that means something...

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Saw an interesting post somewhere on x that the waves that usually come off of Africa to seed the tropics are propagating north over the Sahara.  Its seeing record rainfall from what I read.  

Did you know they have identified 230 times the Sahara has alternated from desert to savannah?  This stuff is nothing new.  Climate change has always happened.  And the truth shall set you free!

Contrary to popular belief, this greening of the Sahara wasn’t a singular event. Scientists, combining marine and lake sediment analysis, have identified more than 230 such greening episodes over the past eight million years, occurring roughly every 21,000 years. These periods of increased vegetation had a profound impact on species distribution and evolution, influencing ancient human migrations out of Africa.

EDIT:  Reading this again I'm guessing this post might have been in regard to the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.  I'll leave my response anyway for educational purposes.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Censorship FTW!

To be fair, Maue is at least a meteorologist. Some here have recently argued that means something...

I'm pretty sure Bastardi does too.  Then of course you have Ed Berry who I mentioned yesterday.  I'm confident he could mop the floor with just about any climate scientist out there in a debate.  Just asking people to have an open mind.  That is seemingly impossible with the younger generations because they have been steeped in this global warming stuff their entire lives.  Going to be pretty embarrassing for them if we get a nice run cooling in the near future which could easily happen.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Fall arriving September 9th. Nuts!

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, lots of theories out there. But just goes to show how far we are from fully understanding our climate system.

Ya think?  So far about everything they say should be happening from climate change has fallen flat on it's face.  Nick Bond, who is the state climatologist, was telling me years ago they thought one effect would be that cold air in the Arctic would become bottled up and not allowed to reach the mid latitudes due to the cold air being captured by increasingly stubborn polar vortexes.  That has not happened at all.

Needless to say if the Atlantic remains quiet there is going to be some serious egg on a lot of faces.  One concern I have is continued lack of activity would result in a lot of oceanic heat not being transferred to the atmosphere.  God only knows what can of worms that could open.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ya think?  So far about everything they say should be happening from climate change has fallen flat on it's face.  Nick Bond, who is the state climatologist, was telling me years ago they thought one effect would be that cold air in the Arctic would become bottled up and not allowed to reach the mid latitudes due to the cold air being captured by increasingly stubborn polar vortexes.  That has not happened at all.

It's certainly a lot better than the Feb 1996-Nov 2003 time period.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's certainly a lot better than the Feb 1996-Nov 2003 time period.

Probably better than 1937 through 1945 also.  Our winters have almost all had something notable in the cold or snow department in recent years.  I think we are going see a major region wide type winter in the near future as well.  As it is the 10 year running average for winter temps in Seattle is running the lowest this century right now.

[snow drift]

The latest weekly 
SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

This will be a weak event at best.

[BLI snowman]

50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking like a nice chilly trough showing up for the early part of week 2.  Maybe we will slip into autumn without any big hiccups.  We'll see.

I would call Thursday's run at the century mark at least a minor hiccup. 

It's still early in the seasonal transition though and at least the hot/dry stuff is looking fairly abbreviated at this point. If we can get through next weekend unscathed, can start to more realistically imagine fire season being over now west of the crest. 

Edited September 3, 2024 by BLI snowman

[snow_wizard]

Nina really beginning to take shape now.  Delayed, but not denied!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The latest weekly 
SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

This will be a weak event at best.

Not every source agrees with those numbers.  I'm going to try to get to the bottom of that.  The atmosphere is fully on board now at any rate with 30 day SOI now over +8. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I would call Thursday's run at the century mark at least a minor hiccup. 

It's still early in the seasonal transition though and at least the hot/dry stuff is looking fairly abbreviated at this point. If we can get through next weekend unscathed, can start to more realistically imagine fire season being over now west of the crest. 

Yeah...I should have specified after this week.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Interesting.

 

Sitting pretty with all my reinsurance exposure

 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The latest weekly 
SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

This will be a weak event at best.

Yeah, even the recent easterly wind surge has had little impact at the surface. Even if 3.4 eventually does take a plunge, getting the five consecutive trimonthlies required for an official event may be pretty difficult. 

Also have to wonder if the overly bullish Niña seasonal forecasts and overly bullish Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts go hand-in-hand. Climate models have definitely seen better years....

Edited September 3, 2024 by BLI snowman

[Phishy Wx]

I'm sticking with La Neutral to very weak La

[snow_wizard]

You really have to wonder if the Atlantic being broken thing might have some huge implications going forward.  Kind of scary / exciting.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

You really have to wonder if the Atlantic being broken thing might have some huge implications going forward.  Kind of scary / exciting.

Persistent Arctic boundaries setting up in Southern Oregon repeatedly.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, even the recent easterly wind surge has had little impact at the surface. Even if 3.4 eventually does take a plunge, getting the five consecutive trimonthlies required for an official event may be pretty difficult. 

Also have to wonder if the overly bullish Niña seasonal forecasts and overly bullish Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts go hand-in-hand. Climate models have definitely seen better years....

As I've mentioned there are other sources that show Nino 3.4 is colder than what this indicates.  It will be close I think.

[BLI snowman]

And for those analog sluts out there... 

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Persistent Arctic boundaries setting up in Southern Oregon repeatedly.

That would leave WA pretty well out of luck for snow.  Maybe a boundary that varies a bit.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, even the recent easterly wind surge has had little impact at the surface. Even if 3.4 eventually does take a plunge, getting the five consecutive trimonthlies required for an official event may be pretty difficult. 

Also have to wonder if the overly bullish Niña seasonal forecasts and overly bullish Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts go hand-in-hand. 

ie: the 'new' Atlantic La Nina signature

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

And for those analog sluts out there... 

 

Holy sheeeiiiitt!

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

And for those analog sluts out there... 

 

68-69 had a super snowy Jan over here

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Went ahead and started my WB subscription until March or April. I can barely afford it but I love following this stuff so much.

[snow_wizard]

Tropical Tidbits has Nino 3.4 sitting at -0.55.  Getting chilly.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

68-69 had a super snowy Jan over here

That's only the tip of the iceberg on that winter.  All time state record low of -48 was set that winter, SEA had sub 20 max temps, SEA had a low of 6, widespread heavy snowfall in January,  huge cold / snow event in December.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That would leave WA pretty well out of luck for snow.  Maybe a boundary that varies a bit.

You'll have your time. I'm sure there will be variability with a period of flooding rains here (and snow for y'all some), followed by another Arctic blast down to southern Oregon with like 3 feet of snow here and then 0F and colder temps, freezing all the floodwaters. That would honestly be pretty awesome to witness.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Went ahead and started my WB subscription until March or April. I can barely afford it but I love following this stuff so much.

I think it's going to be a fun ride.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

68-69 had a super snowy Jan over here

l'll take 2 orders of this please

 

1968-12-28	8	-15	-3.5	-31.5	68	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-29	-9	-21	-15.0	-43.0	80	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-30	-8	-25	-16.5	-44.6	81	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-31	3	-8	-2.5	-30.6

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I've mentioned there are other sources that show Nino 3.4 is colder than what this indicates.  It will be close I think.

The CDAS index shown on Tidbits is always a little lower, not sure if it uses a different baseline or just is a more rudimentary approximation. But the official numbers are posted every week by the CPC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[SnowWillarrive]

11 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ah yes the greedy wind and solar industry.

No but there are many elitist who want to use climate change to control people. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

l'll take 2 orders of this please

 

1968-12-28	8	-15	-3.5	-31.5	68	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-29	-9	-21	-15.0	-43.0	80	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-30	-8	-25	-16.5	-44.6	81	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-31	3	-8	-2.5	-30.6

-45 departure.  Wow!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

68-69 had a super snowy Jan over here

Jan 1969 is the greatest snowstorm ever recorded here. Almost 4 feet of snow over a 72 hour period nonstop.

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And for those analog sluts out there... 

 

This should get everyone to set their expectations unrealistically high  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Marine layer is clearing out from south to north. Seattle should have the blessings for the longest. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow drift]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not every source agrees with those numbers.  I'm going to try to get to the bottom of that.  The atmosphere is fully on board now at any rate with 30 day SOI now over +8. 

Stronger isn't necessarily better. I'll take a weaker event over a stronger event.

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

No but there are many elitist who want to use climate change to control people. 

I thought @iFred was going to ban everyone who talks about politics outside of the political thread.