September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

How much snow does downtown Vancouver average?

Wikipedia says 14"/year at YVR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver#Climate

[iFred]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As an example... the 12Z ECMWF shows a ridge with SW flow next week and its totally sunny.    The ECMWF does really well at forecasting low cloud coverage.

 

Should be great for leaf colors and for lawn over seed. Bonus points if we get another active period of solar.

[iFred]

29 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That solar storm in May was unreal. Hope to see something like that again in my lifetime.

There is an active region that is facing us starting today and there are hints at something developing that should cross the limb. If peak is forecasted for next spring, I think we have a shot at seeing something pretty good at least one more time. Kind of helps that the planet's magnetosphere is in sad shape right now.

[Timmy]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As an example... the 12Z ECMWF shows a ridge with SW flow next week and its totally sunny.    The ECMWF does really well at forecasting low cloud coverage.

 

All it took was a torchy euro run to get Tim posting here again!

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

All it took was a torchy euro run to get Tim posting here again!

Not that torchy.

[Tenochtitlan]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wikipedia says 14"/year at YVR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver#Climate

That’s pretty good. Better than downtown Bellingham which might be 7-8”/year. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Side quest of the day

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

It's coming 

The pioneers have only a short time left.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It could end up cloudy and gloomy but the inversion season doesn't really start until later in October.    SW flow in late September and early October tends to either be really wet or sunny depending on where the AR plume sets up.  

That's a bit disingenuous... Runaway foggy inversions are about a month away, but a completely saturated marine layer squished beneath a 586dm ridge constantly being reinforced by westerly winds ain't gonna be eroded by these sun angles. 65F and cloudy for the foreseeable future.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

There is an active region that is facing us starting today and there are hints at something developing that should cross the limb. If peak is forecasted for next spring, I think we have a shot at seeing something pretty good at least one more time. Kind of helps that the planet's magnetosphere is in sad shape right now.

The true miracle of the May event was getting the new moon + no clouds combo on the night that it happened. 

[RentonHill]

Ooooh just a bit outside 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The true miracle of the May event was getting the new moon + no clouds combo on the night that it happened. 

No doubt. Might never see all of that align here again. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ooooh just a bit outside 

 

Whoa. That would be the end of garden season. Could see some flakes..

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's a bit disingenuous... Runaway foggy inversions are about a month away, but a completely saturated marine layer squished beneath a 586dm ridge constantly being reinforced by westerly winds ain't gonna be eroded by these sun angles. 65F and cloudy for the foreseeable future.

Not sure if you are being genuine here or just ribbing me... but strong ridging usually results in sunshine until around the 3rd week of October.     

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That’s pretty good. Better than downtown Bellingham which might be 7-8”/year. 

Same source says Abbotsford averages 22"/year and based on what happens in snowfalls, I would say MBY probably averages in the 20s, too. I definitely get more than YVR, which is right on the coast and at sea level.

[Tenochtitlan]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same source says Abbotsford averages 22"/year and based on what happens in snowfalls, I would say MBY probably averages in the 20s, too. I definitely get more than YVR, which is right on the coast and at sea level.

Wow. I’ve only seen two winters in my life with that much snow. 2008-09 in Seattle and 2016-17 in Bellingham.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Wow. I’ve only seen two winters in my life with that much snow. 2008-09 in Seattle and 2016-17 in Bellingham.

Double whammy. The Coast Mountains both increase precipitation due to upsloping and enable cold air damming during periods of southerly flow (much like the Olympics do for easterly flow in the Hood Canal region).

I got 35" total two winters ago, that's my best season to date.

[Meatyorologist]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if you are being genuine here or just ribbing me... but strong ridging usually results in sunshine until around the 3rd week of October.     

I thought heights were higher over the next week...my bad

 

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite pleasant this afternoon with lots of breaks in the clouds and dry with temps in the mid 60s out here.  Significantly better than I expected based on the all day drizzle-fest the models were showing a couple days ago.

The weekend is also looking drier and more pleasant than previous runs.  

The Euro has been struggling more than normal this warm season it seems. Huh.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Side quest of the day

Mushroom tip rock! Where is this?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Same source says Abbotsford averages 22"/year and based on what happens in snowfalls, I would say MBY probably averages in the 20s, too. I definitely get more than YVR, which is right on the coast and at sea level.

In my 7 winters we average 25” a year. 2019 had almost 70” so… kinda skews the numbers.

[BLI snowman]

Drizzle starting up here. Praying for a dust settling 0.01". Might be our last hope for awhile.

[the_convergence_zone]

57 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Euro has been struggling more than normal this warm season it seems. Huh.

There was a bit of downsloping in the foothills today. It was cold and drizzly in Seattle as expected. 

[MossMan]

61/49 on the day.

Currently 59.

.01” for the day, .43” for the month, 35.69” for the year. 

[Deweydog]

Drizzle fo shizzle.

[Phishy Wx]

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Thermal Trough]

Great weather over the next week. Goldilocks weather this weekend for the Fall Equinox!  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if you are being genuine here or just ribbing me... but strong ridging usually results in sunshine until around the 3rd week of October.     

Welcome back to the forum!

[Snownerd3000]

2020-2021 was used as an analog by Eric Webb too on X. 

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

2020-2021 was used as an analog by Eric Webb too on X. 

Hmm, first I've heard that one.

That was a very slow starting winter here, but had a very cold February (coldest since 1960) and an awesome March blizzard.

[Meatyorologist]

February 2021 brought the largest snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle. Though I've conveniently been out of town or not living in north Seattle for some of our biggest events of the last few decades.

[Meatyorologist]

Starting to notice on ICON slides that 21z is about as warm as 00z. Max heating is probably as early as 3pm now.

[BLI snowman]

Topped out at 15" here in February 2021. Tied with January 1998 for the biggest single snowstorm I've sniffed on the westside. A one hit wonder winter but as far as hits go, it was pretty good (sorry Andrew).

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/3-signs-for-colder-winter-2024-2025-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Lots of great info in that article. Reminds me of yet again the winter of all our lives, 2016-2017.  One thing they forgot to mention as well, like that year, this La Niña is also following an El Niño. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

February 2021 brought the largest snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle. Though I've conveniently been out of town or not living in north Seattle for some of our biggest events of the last few decades.

My four biggest lowland snow events:

December 1990 Seattle 14" in one afternoon

December 1996 Seattle over 23" in two storms back to back

December 2008 Portland 13" in two storms back to back

January 2024 Vancouver 12" in one day

[SnowWillarrive]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My four biggest lowland snow events:

December 1990 Seattle 14" in one afternoon

December 1996 Seattle over 23" in two storms back to back

December 2008 Portland 13" in two storms back to back

January 2024 Vancouver 12" in one day

How much snow does Squamish normally get in winter? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Topped out at 15" here in February 2021. Tied with January 1998 for the biggest single snowstorm I've sniffed on the westside. A one hit wonder winter but as far as hits go, it was pretty good (sorry Andrew).

I was about to mention what a regional

dud that winter was. Had a lot minor wind events and constant power outages though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Lots of great info in that article. Reminds me of yet again the winter of all our lives, 2016-2017.  One thing they forgot to mention as well, like that year, this La Niña is also following an El Niño. 

That December/January was incredible east of the cascades. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

How much snow does Squamish normally get in winter? 

Wikipedia says 34".

The interesting thing is, despite how much snow more I average than points further south, for most of the winter it’s just like everyplace else in the lowlands, because the norm is still mild and rainy. It’s just a matter of having a few more chances for snow, and there being a higher rainfall, so those chances lead to heavier snowfalls on average.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F and nice out there after some rain.