September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That one was KOLD!  It actually averaged below 30 in some parts of Western WA.

I don't think we've ever had a temperature departure of +33F

I stumbled upon it because Phoenix had the most 100F+ temps this year, breaking the record by 37 days. New records there in that regard were broken in the Summer of 1935, when it set a new record to that date. A +PNA pattern pattern carried that Winter in Dec-Jan, then February (which in all of the analogs switched to -PNA pretty abruptly) the record cold came forth. I think when Phoenix is hot in the Summer, the N. Pacific ridge had a tendency to stretch north the following Winter, into Alaska, at least if you separate the years by progression of new records set (it has to be progression otherwise all of the analogs would be recent). That year, 1935, broke its old record by 17 days. 

In the long run, warmth in the SW, US is a warm signal because the jet stream is lifting north, but shorter term, it could mean we have some cold bursts this Winter. Maybe. It's kind of a small data point. 

[T-Town]

39 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

@Anti Marine Layer wasnt partying! Whenever you think you have it the worst, just remember he's over there all alone in the California thread. 

Letting the anger build…

[T-Town]

Sunset. 

 

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That's why I feel like this coming winter will be like 2016-17 and provide for hopefully a lot of mountain wave events with lots of backdoor cold as well as periods of a rex block in the right position that touches off some cutoff lows that stall out as they make landfall around Gold Beach and track inland to Burns.

We need a couple to track across SW WA as well.  Generally you don't want mountain waves.  Too much of a good thing for efficient delivery of cold air.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I don't think we've ever had a temperature departure of +33F

I stumbled upon it because Phoenix had the most 100F+ temps this year, breaking the record by 37 days. New records there in that regard were broken in the Summer of 1935, when it set a new record to that date. A +PNA pattern pattern carried that Winter in Dec-Jan, then February (which in all of the analogs switched to -PNA pretty abruptly) the record cold came forth. I think when Phoenix is hot in the Summer, the N. Pacific ridge had a tendency to stretch north the following Winter, into Alaska, at least if you separate the years by progression of new records set (it has to be progression otherwise all of the analogs would be recent). That year, 1935, broke its old record by 17 days. 

In the long run, warmth in the SW, US is a warm signal because the jet stream is lifting north, but shorter term, it could mean we have some cold bursts this Winter. Maybe. It's kind of a small data point. 

October 1935 also had an insane cold wave in the NW that brought snow to the Western Lowlands.  Some all time record lows for so early in the season happened with that one.  The atmosphere was extremely perturbed that season.

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

October 1935 also had an insane cold wave in the NW that brought snow to the Western Lowlands.  Some all time record lows for so early in the season happened with that one.  The atmosphere was extremely perturbed that season.

Yeah, this was pre-February

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Yeah, this was pre-February

Here we had very cold weather in late October into November and then pretty mild until the hammer dropped in February.  We also had a very impressive late season event for this region at the end of March with widespread late month snowfall and lows in the teens in some places.  Huge deal for here so late in the season.  We normally do much better with early season stuff than late here.

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Sunset. 

 

Looks perturbed. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Usually I love the transition to fall but now that I quit tech and started working outside again........ the rain can hold off

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

From the other night. 

[Deweydog]

It’s not the sunset… was trying to get pic of Matt McConaughey in the Lincoln in front of me. Fail.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, RentonHill said:

big boi on the 18z

Euro AI had one too

 

Cool/not cool....flying down to Georgia/S. Carolina the 3rd-10th, hopefully that sucker doesn't slow down or stall out...delaying its arrival to when I get there.  Normally I would welcome it, but this trip is to spend time with my aunt who just lost her husband of 68 years, and to see my mom, who is at a point health wise that I need to treat every chance to see her as the last time I will see her.  Hopefully it does not go rogue and swing over to the Atlantic and hit Charleston, I don't know how well my mom would handle being evacuated.

 

Its a big enough gap from the 28th to the 3rd that I should be okay, but murphy really likes to take his "laws" and f*ck with me.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Cool/not cool....flying down to Georgia/S. Carolina the 3rd-10th, hopefully that sucker doesn't slow down or stall out...delaying its arrival to when I get there.  Normally I would welcome it, but this trip is to spend time with my aunt who just lost her husband of 68 years, and to see my mom, who is at a point health wise that I need to treat every chance to see her as the last time I will see her.  Hopefully it does not go rogue and swing over to the Atlantic and hit Charleston, I don't know how well my mom would handle being evacuated.

 

Its a big enough gap from the 28th to the 3rd that I should be okay, but murphy really likes to take his "laws" and f*ck with me.

The odds are highly in your favor of it working out fine.

[snow_wizard]

Regardless of which dataset is correct Nino 3.4 is crashing hard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perturbed members 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Regardless of which dataset is correct Nino 3.4 is crashing hard.

What's the cut to make it a la nina? -1.0?

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The odds are highly in your favor of it working out fine.

I think so too, but still gonna keep an eye on it.  The good news it that if it does blast through, there is a usually pause before another one while the ocean/atmosphere "recharges"

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What's the cut to make it a la nina? -1.0?

-1.0 is moderate.  -0.5 is weak.  The be official it has to average out to -0.5 for a number of months though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I think so too, but still gonna keep an eye on it.  The good news it that if it does blast through, there is a usually pause before another one while the ocean/atmosphere "recharges"

This season has been incredibly quiet so far.  Might just stay that way, but there's a chance it could make up for lost time at some point.  The professionals are going for the latter, but that might be out of desperation more than anything.  

[LowerGarfield]

GFS has been pretty insistant about that hurricane in the Gulf. If anyone follows sports, Tallahassee probably needs to have it trend east at this point lol.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

GFS has been pretty insistant about that hurricane in the Gulf. If anyone follows sports, Tallahassee probably needs to have it trend east at this point lol.

This one is looking pretty likely.  Where it will go is up in the air though.

[Phishy Wx]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

-1.0 is moderate.  -0.5 is weak.  The be official it has to average out to -0.5 for a number of months though.

3 month average -0.5 or lower I think

[Slushy Inch]

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

might as well have an October smoke season this year after we pretty much missed it to this point.

[High Desert Mat?]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

3 month average -0.5 or lower I think

According to Phil that doesn’t matter according to the tropical forcing he was talking about ‘16-‘17 which was a La Niña. 

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Here we had very cold weather in late October into November and then pretty mild until the hammer dropped in February.  We also had a very impressive late season event for this region at the end of March with widespread late month snowfall and lows in the teens in some places.  Huge deal for here so late in the season.  We normally do much better with early season stuff than late here.

You could write a history book about PNW snow storms 

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You could write a history book about PNW snow storms 

I do have a book I've been working on for about 30 years.  Maybe it will get done someday. 

I will say the chapters I have on January 1880 and the winter of 1861-62 are pretty D**n good though.  I might put them on here some time.  There is a lot of data on both of those thanks to pure luck in a lot of ways.

One part I absolutely love is a newspaper account I found from Christmastime in 1861 and it talks about the community getting together around bon fires and doing sleigh rides.  Just magical.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF says the Atlantic stays quiet for the next 10 days.  That would be quite something if it's right.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

According to Phil that doesn’t matter according to the tropical forcing he was talking about ‘16-‘17 which was a La Niña. 

SSTAs were close to +1°C in niño-3 by the end of winter 2017. There was a dramatic reversal in the base state during Jan/Feb.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

GFS has been pretty insistant about that hurricane in the Gulf. If anyone follows sports, Tallahassee probably needs to have it trend east at this point lol.

Nah, FSU fans would most likely rather just forfeit the ballgame with or without the hurricane given how their season has started.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

[Front Ranger]

16 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I forgot just how cold Feb 2021 was nationally. Absolute ice box in the center of the country.

Beastly: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave#:~:text=The February 2021 North American,two-thirds of February 2021.

Some highlights:

- coldest February for the US since 1989

- Fayetteville, AR recorded their all time coldest temperature with a low of -20

- Hastings, NE (-30) and Bottineau, ND (-51) did as well

- coldest temperature in Oklahoma City (-14) since 1899

- coldest temperature in Dallas (-2) since 1930

- coldest Mardi Gras on record for New Orleans with a high of 33

- temperatures 50 degrees below normal in TX, with the state seeing their second coldest week on record

- 

[Phishy Wx]

Septgust heat wave incoming

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful light marine layer with mist in the tree tops this morning. 49

@snow_wizard I will purchase a copy of your book. 

[MossMan]

A fall like scene…Fog starting to roll in, leaves are starting to fall, and the old water toys are on land instead of in the water. 
 

Currently 49 degrees. 
 

[Phishy Wx]

low of 48 this morning, currently 52

[Chewbacca Defense]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A fall like scene…Fog starting to roll in, leaves are starting to fall, and the old water toys are on land instead of in the water. 
 

Currently 49 degrees. 
 

Definitely fall like... 51 and foggy.  I was thinking last night I might need to get my son over to get his kayak hung from the ceiling in the garage. 

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 46 here this morning.  The min temps kind of shifted gears about a week ago and have not looked back.

[MossMan]

A bloody foggy morning. 

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A bloody foggy morning. 

Randy’s giving off Serial killer vibes this morning