September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWx]

Haven’t hit 70 in over a week now here. Low of 48 this morning. Doesn’t look like there’s much rain coming in the next week but not very warm either. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Haven’t hit 70 in over a week now here. Low of 48 this morning. Doesn’t look like there’s much rain coming in the next week but not very warm either. 

Mark Nelsen has a 90 for PDX on Tuesday next week.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen has a 90 for PDX on Tuesday next week.

Maybe close to 80 here…warm for this time of year relative to average but not bad this months been really pleasant despite 2 warm smoky days. 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Haven’t hit 70 in over a week now here. Low of 48 this morning. Doesn’t look like there’s much rain coming in the next week but not very warm either. 

ECMWF looks chilly tomorrow night.  Could easily be some upper 30s and low 40s.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Maybe close to 80 here…warm for this time of year relative to average but not bad this months been really pleasant despite 2 warm smoky days. 

My MTD average is almost down to normal now.

[kokaneekidz]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

A fall like scene…Fog starting to roll in, leaves are starting to fall, and the old water toys are on land instead of in the water. 
 

Currently 49 degrees. 
 

I think you were a lil premature in that regard. We have at least 1 more heatwave left to Enjoy... Possibly a twofer in October 

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

I think you were a lil premature in that regard. We have at least 1 more heatwave left to Enjoy... Possibly a twofer in October 

It was more looking at our crazy busy schedule ahead and knowing we wouldn’t have much time to hit the water again. Plus in the past I would wait a little too long and would be rushing to get them out as it’s 40 degrees and raining lol. 
 

Though if we get a free moment during the upcoming heatwave for the ages we might hook up the boat and run over to Lake Cavanaugh and show my wife the lake…As I am in love with that spot! 

Edited September 19 by MossMan

[kokaneekidz]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was more looking at our crazy busy schedule ahead and knowing we wouldn’t have much time to hit the water again. Plus in the past I would wait a little too long in the past would be rushing to get them out as it’s 40 degrees and raining lol. 
 

Though if we get a free moment during the upcoming heatwave for the ages we might hook up the boat and run over to Lake Cavanaugh and show my wife the lake…As I am in love with that spot! 

Lake Cavanaugh is a true gem and just the cleanest clearest water as well. Wish it was easier to access.

 

 

I am definitely in the minority as here all the boats got pulled 3 days prior and the mooring buoys are quite lonely  

 

[iFred]

A good morning.

Getting over a cold, drinking some fresh coffee, and looking out my window to an amber and yellow world, spiked in ever verdant spruce and pine. A sky a shattered overcast, allowing for those creeping shadows. I've thrown on some Mulatu Astake, turned off the office lights, and just sit back to experience what it is like to experience.

It's a good morning.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, iFred said:

A good morning.

Getting over a cold, drinking some fresh coffee, and looking out my window to an amber and yellow world, spiked in ever verdant spruce and pine. A sky a shattered overcast, allowing for those creeping shadows. I've thrown on some Mulatu Astake, turned off the office lights, and just sit back to experience what it is like to experience.

It's a good morning.

Possibly the most zen post this forum has ever seen.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen has a 90 for PDX on Tuesday next week.

Looks like a quick hitter at least. Literally one day.

[Winterdog]

Didn't quite touch 60 yesterday and had a morning low of 43, currently 62 with partly cloudy skies.  I caught a mole this morning so it's already a good day.

[Meatyorologist]

30 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Possibly the most zen post this forum has ever seen.

That's not saying much

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

A good morning.

Getting over a cold, drinking some fresh coffee, and looking out my window to an amber and yellow world, spiked in ever verdant spruce and pine. A sky a shattered overcast, allowing for those creeping shadows. I've thrown on some Mulatu Astake, turned off the office lights, and just sit back to experience what it is like to experience.

It's a good morning.

Sounds like a communist thing to say, especially with your new profile photo.

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Mark my words, December 2008 redux but better followed by Jan 1950 redux but better followed by February 2019 redux but better.

 

Dec 2008 was so nice

[Tyler Mode]

Almost every model now keeps Portland in the mid 80s Tuesday vs. near 90. 

[kokaneekidz]

Drove down to Mukilteo and was surprised to see the Boeing Skybox cars already stacking up from the strike. 

 

Beautiful weather for the picketers at least

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Almost every model now keeps Portland in the mid 80s Tuesday vs. near 90. 

Takes some pretty healthy downslope by this point to overcome the wimpy sun. Mid 80s are pretty attainable but in late September we'll typically run out of juice right around 88-89 without that adiabatic assist. 

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Mark my words, December 2008 redux but better followed by Jan 1950 redux but better followed by February 2019 redux but better.

 

Dec 2008 was so nice

There were some obvious screw zones even with that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Only mid to upper 60’s here.

[T-Town]

25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Only mid to upper 60’s here.

Looks delightful to me. 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful afternoon.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful afternoon.  

Wrong.

[Meatyorologist]

Mid 60s and sunny out there. Beautiful afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wrong.

I stand corrected... not beautiful. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm a pretty big fan of today.  Below normal temps with plenty of sunshine.

[snow_wizard]

Well what have we here? 

 

[snow_wizard]

GFS almost totally does away with the hurricane threat for the Gulf now.  Looks like this season is going to totally flop.  Time is really running out for a major outbreak of tropical storms now.  Could be 3 or 4 more before it's done though.

[snow_wizard]

GFS is showing lows in the 30s for a lot of places locally later in the run.  Can't believe the cold season is almost here.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS almost totally does away with the hurricane threat for the Gulf now.  Looks like this season is going to totally flop.  Time is really running out for a major outbreak of tropical storms now.  Could be 3 or 4 more before it's done though.

This run is obviously an outlier 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Well what have we here? 

 

I see two giant clown noses.

[MV_snow]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Takes some pretty healthy downslope by this point to overcome the wimpy sun. Mid 80s are pretty attainable but in late September we'll typically run out of juice right around 88-89 without that adiabatic assist. 

Yeah, it always amazes me that the average temp at SEA is slightly warmer in Sept vs June, but the high end potential in June is so much higher than Sept due to sun angles. And a June without cloud cover can really bake compared to Sept like 2015.

[CloudJunkie]

If we get ridgy next month, at least give us thick fog. I want to do some spooky graveyard photography.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This run is obviously an outlier 

The ECMWF has barely been showing the storm at all though.

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, CloudJunkie said:

If we get ridgy next month, at least give us thick fog. I want to do some spooky graveyard photography.

Good chance with a big ridge in October.  Some fog sounds really nice this year.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I see two giant clown noses.

Kind of fitting for the clown range!

[iFred]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good chance with a big ridge in October.  Some fog sounds really nice this year.

Isn’t that the death knell for a snowy winter?

[MossMan]

65/48 on the day.

Currently 55

[StormchaserChuck1]

PDO looks to be under -3. Seattle and Portland hold a >0.5 correlation with the Winter PDO, making it a >3/4, or 75% chance you have below normal temps, all other things being neutral. 

The only October that looks more extreme than this current PDO was 1955.