September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow drift]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

l'll take 2 orders of this please

 

1968-12-28	8	-15	-3.5	-31.5	68	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-29	-9	-21	-15.0	-43.0	80	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-30	-8	-25	-16.5	-44.6	81	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-31	3	-8	-2.5	-30.6

Late December 1978 is similar. Early February 1989 is the most extreme combination of wind and cold I've ever experienced. The temperature did not get above zero with winds sustained 20-25 mph with gusts over 40 mph.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Late December 1978 is similar. Early February 1989 is the most extreme combination of wind and cold I've ever experienced. The temperature did not get above zero with winds sustained 20-25 mph with gusts over 40 mph.

The cold was insane in Feb 1989.  It was 14 degrees in the mid afternoon here on Feb 1 with sideways snowfall.  Insane for here.

Dec 1968 was a different animal.  A beast of an airmass that just got over the Candian border.  The N to S gradient was huge with that one unlike 1989.  In real terms 1978 wasn't even close to those.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Stronger isn't necessarily better. I'll take a weaker event over a stronger event.

Very true.  Strong most likely will not happen.  1949 and 1988 were very substantial Ninas and they got brutally cold though.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Jan 1969 is the greatest snowstorm ever recorded here. Almost 4 feet of snow over a 72 hour period nonstop.

And it snowed a lot everywhere.  Very special indeed.

[Tenochtitlan]

Kind of anxious to see how this winter will be in NW Oregon. It’ll be my second winter here in Portland. I know winter snow isn’t as reliable here as in Bellingham and averages even less than Seattle.

I’m hoping that we get something better than last winter’s ice storm. But IIRC about 1/4 of winters here are basically snowless, so I should be prepared for that. 

[BLI snowman]

Smelling like another at least slight underachiever here today. 80 feeling a bit out reach. 

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold was insane in Feb 1989.  It was 14 degrees in the mid afternoon here on Feb 1 with sideways snowfall.  Insane for here.

Dec 1968 was a different animal.  A beast of an airmass that just got over the Candian border.  The N to S gradient was huge with that one unlike 1989.  In real terms 1978 wasn't even close to those.

1978 was similar to 1968 in Spokane. True, 1978 wasn't as significant regionally. 

[Tyler Mode]

Maybe we can get the smoke to shave off 5 degrees for us here in Oregon/SW Washington.  My all time high for September is 98.8...

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Kind of anxious to see how this winter will be in NW Oregon. It’ll be my second winter here in Portland. I know winter snow isn’t as reliable here as in Bellingham and averages even less than Seattle.

I’m hoping that we get something better than last winter’s ice storm. But IIRC about 1/4 of winters here are basically snowless, so I should be prepared for that. 

With the CFS and Bastardi on board for a PNW icebox, the dud potential is really ramping up . 

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold was insane in Feb 1989.  It was 14 degrees in the mid afternoon here on Feb 1 with sideways snowfall.  Insane for here.

Dec 1968 was a different animal.  A beast of an airmass that just got over the Candian border.  The N to S gradient was huge with that one unlike 1989.  In real terms 1978 wasn't even close to those.

1978 was pretty top tier in the upper levels, just much less of a Fraser River component with it and the PV wasn't displaced as far to the SW. 

That was our last widespread sub-zero airmass in Clark County. Vancouver cleared out and hit -2 on the 31st after a nice little 3-4" snowstorm the day before. Seattle area didn't see anything with that though. 

Edited September 3, 2024 by BLI snowman

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

With the CFS and Bastardi on board for a PNW icebox, the dud potential is really ramping up . 

The base state is great for us.  More aces in the deck is the best place to be.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1978 was pretty top tier in the upper levels, just much less of a Fraser River component with it and the PV wasn't displaced as far to the SW. 

That was our last widespread sub-zero airmass in Clark County. Vancouver cleared out and hit -2 on the 31st after a nice little 3-4" snowstorm the day before. Seattle area didn't see anything with that though. 

Yup.  The Fraser aspect just wasn't there.  When that happens it's dry cold here.  No doubt it got cold here, but no snow.

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.  Strong most likely will not happen.  1949 and 1988 were very substantial Ninas and they got brutally cold though.

Spokane's two coldest winters, 1948-49 and 1978-79, were neutrals. 

 

[Phil]

15 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to keep this hot dog eating contest going for too long, but are you just going to ignore the wildly obvious incentives oil companies and car manufacturers have to prevent any change in industry technologies? Companies that contract with the very media outlets "your side" gets their information from?

The whole schtick about energy companies wanting “prevent change” is mostly just online cosplay. In reality they are receiving large subsidies to develop renewable tech and are investing the majority of their money in such projects, because that is the future of the industry.

The biggest obstacle to an economy-wide transition to renewables is that it will require a significant increase in overall electricity generation. And we can’t do that while simultaneously reducing emissions absent substantial public investment in nuclear power.

But alas, the majority of individuals and organizations that are pushing for rapid decarbonization are also against nuclear. Because…people are stupid.

[MossMan]

62 and still cloudy!  

[snow_wizard]

Dec 1978 was interesting.  Obviously very back door as evidenced by Landsburg posting a 22/4 on the 31st while SEA was 26/13.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The whole schtick about energy companies wanting “prevent change” is mostly just online cosplay. In reality they are receiving large subsidies to develop renewable tech and are investing the majority of their money in such projects, because that is the future of the industry.

The biggest obstacle to an economy-wide transition to renewables is that it will require a significant increase in overall electricity generation. And we can’t do that while simultaneously reducing emissions absent substantial public investment in nuclear power. 

My feelings on nuclear have really changed.  When I was young I was dead against it.  Now I'm still a bit nervous about it (especially in geologically active areas), but it has huge advantages, and we know how to deal with the waste now.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Spokane's two coldest winters, 1948-49 and 1978-79, were neutrals. 

 

1978-79 was colder than 1949-50.  Wow!  Not even a contest over here.

Here 1948-49 and 1949-50 were tied.  Back to back ice boxes.

[snow drift]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1978-79 was colder than 1949-50.  Wow!  Not even a contest over here.

Here 1948-49 and 1949-50 were tied.  Back to back ice boxes.

It was interesting how those two winters were back to back. If that happened today, there would be mass hysteria. 

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The base state is great for us.  More aces in the deck is the best place to be.

My gut feeling is the first half will be pretty good and the second half of winter will be pretty forgettable.  

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Kind of anxious to see how this winter will be in NW Oregon. It’ll be my second winter here in Portland. I know winter snow isn’t as reliable here as in Bellingham and averages even less than Seattle.

I’m hoping that we get something better than last winter’s ice storm. But IIRC about 1/4 of winters here are basically snowless, so I should be prepared for that. 

Definitely depends on where you are in the area. Obviously elevation matters a lot, but Downtown Portland is actually pretty close to identical to Downtown Seattle in the snow department. South suburbs are pretty rough once the gorge influence dilutes a bit. And then Forest Grove, Gresham, and Clark/Columbia Counties tend to see roughly 150-200% of what Portland sees on average. 

[Tenochtitlan]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely depends on where you are in the area. Obviously elevation matters a lot, but Downtown Portland is actually pretty close to identical to Downtown Seattle in the snow department. South suburbs are pretty rough once the gorge influence dilutes a bit. And then Forest Grove, Gresham, and Clark/Columbia Counties tend to see roughly 150-200% of what Portland sees on average. 

We’re just east of downtown Portland in the Buckman area.

 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

We’re just east of downtown Portland in the Buckman area.

 

Gotcha. Onshore flow will be rough but you're close enough to get the gorge influence with the more shallow events. Often there's a cutoff right near the southern part of the Portland city limits. Have seen a number of occasions where Milwaukie stayed rain and it flipped a few miles north. 

[the_convergence_zone]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

The whole schtick about energy companies wanting “prevent change” is mostly just online cosplay. In reality they are receiving large subsidies to develop renewable tech and are investing the majority of their money in such projects, because that is the future of the industry.

The biggest obstacle to an economy-wide transition to renewables is that it will require a significant increase in overall electricity generation. And we can’t do that while simultaneously reducing emissions absent substantial public investment in nuclear power.

But alas, the majority of individuals and organizations that are pushing for rapid decarbonization are also against nuclear. Because…people are stupid.

What happened with nuclear is sad but its time has come and gone. It isn’t cost competitive with wind/solar and it isn’t needed now that batteries are cheap.  
 

We would be in a much better position wrt CO2 emissions if those nuclear incidents hadn’t happened, but they did, and there’s no going back or convincing people to not be afraid of it. 

[Tenochtitlan]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Gotcha. Onshore flow will be rough but you're close enough to get the gorge influence with the more shallow events. Often there's a cutoff right near the southern part of the Portland city limits. Have seen a number of occasions where Milwaukie stayed rain and it flipped a few miles north. 

It seems like downtown Portland is a little better than downtown Seattle in the sense that snow tends to melt quicker there? It was impressive how long the ice stayed around last winter (though it made getting anywhere terrible). 

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

What happened with nuclear is sad but its time has come and gone. It isn’t cost competitive with wind/solar and it isn’t needed now that batteries are cheap.  
 

We would be in a much better position wrt CO2 emissions if those nuclear incidents hadn’t happened, but they did, and there’s no going back or convincing people to not be afraid of it. 

I just want you to know that people like you are pretty much the entire reason I decided to get out of academia.

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My gut feeling is the first half will be pretty good and the second half of winter will be pretty forgettable.  

We are due for a front loaded winter. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are due for a front loaded winter. 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I just want you to know that people like you are pretty much the entire reason I decided to get out of academia.

That’s cool, I’ve heard academia has gotten pretty rough but I wouldn’t know. 

[iFred]

16 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

What happened with nuclear is sad but its time has come and gone. It isn’t cost competitive with wind/solar and it isn’t needed now that batteries are cheap.  
 

We would be in a much better position wrt CO2 emissions if those nuclear incidents hadn’t happened, but they did, and there’s no going back or convincing people to not be afraid of it. 

With enforced de-growth we will need even less energy. I outlined this in my best selling manifesto: "If a meteor isn't going to do it, I will".

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

It seems like downtown Portland is a little better than downtown Seattle in the sense that snow tends to melt quicker there? It was impressive how long the ice stayed around last winter (though it made getting anywhere terrible). 

With snow I really don't think there's a huge difference. The central part of Seattle will occasionally get clipped pretty good with the strong northerly arctic fronts and c-zones that form along them, and when they get that going into an air mass it sticks around for awhile. 

Freezing rain is no contest and Portland will easily see more in the long run. And the gorge can always keep Portland in the icebox for a little bit longer as long as the tap remains open. Central Puget Sound region is much more reliant on upper level support for staying cold as it lacks a strong low level source to tap into. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

With enforced de-growth we will need even less energy. I outlined this in my best selling manifesto: "If a meteor isn't going to do it, I will".

Those academics who are trying to force de-growth on us must be stopped. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Persistent Arctic boundaries setting up in Southern Oregon repeatedly.

I was thinking about the Red BLUFF area.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

With enforced de-growth we will need even less energy. I outlined this in my best selling manifesto: "If a meteor isn't going to do it, I will".

Yellowstone v Meteor 3: Meteor’s Revenge 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Maybe we can get the smoke to shave off 5 degrees for us here in Oregon/SW Washington.  My all time high for September is 98.8...

Unfortunately a bunch of new fires BLOWING up east of the Cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I just want you to know that people like you are pretty much the entire reason I decided to get out of academia.

HARSH

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

My feelings on nuclear have really changed.  When I was young I was dead against it.  Now I'm still a bit nervous about it (especially in geologically active areas), but it has huge advantages, and we know how to deal with the waste now.

As nuclear engineer, I could go on for hours about the subject. The waste is the least concerning part of nuclear power. All of the waste ever created in the US could fit in a few olympic sized pools, or be reprocessed and run again like more advanced countries. The only way we survive and advance as a civilization is with nuclear power (fission and fusion). 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

What happened with nuclear is sad but its time has come and gone. It isn’t cost competitive with wind/solar and it isn’t needed now that batteries are cheap.  
 

We would be in a much better position wrt CO2 emissions if those nuclear incidents hadn’t happened, but they did, and there’s no going back or convincing people to not be afraid of it. 

LMAO. This is likely the dumbest thing I have read this year. 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

LMAO. This is likely the dumbest thing I have read this year. 

I didn't realize it was controversial that renewables are way cheaper than nuclear. 

[High Desert Mathew]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

LMAO. This is likely the dumbest thing I have read this year. 

You’re in this forum. I highly doubt that.