September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, kokaneekidz said:

I moved July 22nd. I was in Mukilteo for years. Now Utsalady(land of many berries ) lol Road. It's a big adjustment... The local brewery Ale Spike is awesome. Its in an airplane hanger on the so called camano airstrip.  

Did you enjoy Lost Lake? Good trout there  

I never fished in the lake, but we walked around it. My wife's family lived there and we lived with them from late 2014-Spring 2017. Then we moved to Stanwood and were there from 2017-Summer 2020 before we moved to Lewiston and then to SE WA a few months later.

I'm more of a wine person so I'd go to that winery  when you first get on the Island more.

[Jbolin]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Came home early to start phase 1 of the fall yard trim up. Will probably be at least 3 phases so I have 2 to go! Also had to mow again. 
14 yards of wood-chip mulch being delivered tomorrow for the dog yard to cut down on the winter mud…Because it’s coming! 

All these pics seem to be missing something, 

Oh, I know. A foot of snow

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF looks like it's hinting at widespread frost for the night after the very end of the run.  Really nice looking pattern.

[SpaceRace22]

Lordy

[snow_wizard]

Amazingly the ECMWF says hurricane season might be done.  I can't believe the forecasters continue to stay on the sinking ship.

[SpaceRace22]

D**n, the CFS run 2 days ago was even more ridiculous. Literally a -20F anomaly for the month at SEA.

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazingly the ECMWF says hurricane season might be done.  I can't believe the forecasters continue to stay on the sinking ship.

Decent chance of a named storm in the Gulf next week. 

[ShawniganLake]

Breezy next week?

 

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Lordy

100th anniversary of the infamous December 1924.  You never know....

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Decent chance of a named storm in the Gulf next week. 

Yeah....but nothing close to what they've been talking about this season.

[snow_wizard]

Just looked at December 1924 again for Landsburg.  11 inches of snow followed by 10 days of ridiculous cold, complete with snow on the ground for Christmas.  Coldest day was 18/0 with 7 mins below 10.  

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looked at December 1924 again for Landsburg.  11 inches of snow followed by 10 days of ridiculous cold, complete with snow on the ground for Christmas.  Coldest day was 18/0 with 7 mins below 10.  

Pretty great cold snap.  The first half of the month was incredibly mild so the overall numbers for the month were pretty subdued 

[Deweydog]

December

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December

To Remember?

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazingly the ECMWF says hurricane season might be done.  I can't believe the forecasters continue to stay on the sinking ship.

This season is definitely a data point.. It's not the PDO, because historically -PDO correlates with a few more storms than +PDO. La Nina is more storms too, but 2 years ago we did have 14 NS in La Nina, and last year 21 NS in Strong El Nino.  This is a 3 year break streak wrt ENSO.

It might just be that global ACE has been 76% of normal for the last 30 years, while the Atlantic has been 180% (and the Atlantic is even included in that global total!).

[StormchaserChuck1]

50 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Decent chance of a named storm in the Gulf next week. 

That would be number 8? Meaning we are on pace for 12-13.. for 100 years the Atlantic averaged 9NS/yr. Then since 1995 it really increased. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

100th anniversary of the infamous December 1924.  You never know....

You should really root for -EPO/-WPO. There is cold around for those patterns to produce.. mid latitude ridging (-PNA) I'm not so hot on.. I think we want mid-latitude low pressures in the greater scheme of things. 

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

To Remember?

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They won't need a sales event after all the crashed cars this isie Desembrrrrr

[Jbolin]

Well, I don't know how your early morning is going but I was just awoken to water pouring out of my apt ceiling in my bedroom, bathroom and kitchen.

Called the fire dept. and 25 mins later they find the source. A neighbor four floors above me came home drunk, fell over onto the toilet fill tank, (somehow) smashing it and the water line to the wall. They had to go across the street and turn the feed line to the building off. 

Now I sit here waiting for mgmt to call me and four other residents back to address the issue of MAJOR water damage to our units including personal property and vehicles in the garage. 

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU*K

 

UPDATE: I've been informed by management that the "drunk neighbor" is NOT responsible, (he) "thought" he was. There was a rupture of the feed line in the building stack wall that occurred behind his toilet breaking the fill tank and line resulting in the massive amount of water. Nine units severely affected (including mine). My initial assessment is roughly $9,000 worth of damage to my personal property. 

My weekend is ruined, LITERALLY.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Well, I don't know how your early morning is going but I was just awoken to water pouring out of my apt ceiling in my bedroom, bathroom and kitchen.

Called the fire depart. and 25 mins later they find the source. A neighbor four floors above me came home drunk, fell over onto the toilet fill tank, (somehow) smashing it and the water line to the wall. They had to go across the street and turn the feed line to the building off. 

Now I sit here waiting for mgmt to call me and four other residents back to address the issue of MAJOR water damage to our units including personal property and vehicles in the garage. 

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU*K

omfg. i could not imagine 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Jbolin said:

Well, I don't know how your early morning is going but I was just awoken to water pouring out of my apt ceiling in my bedroom, bathroom and kitchen.

Called the fire dept. and 25 mins later they find the source. A neighbor four floors above me came home drunk, fell over onto the toilet fill tank, (somehow) smashing it and the water line to the wall. They had to go across the street and turn the feed line to the building off. 

Now I sit here waiting for mgmt to call me and four other residents back to address the issue of MAJOR water damage to our units including personal property and vehicles in the garage. 

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU*K

 

UPDATE: I've been informed by management that the "drunk neighbor" is NOT responsible, (he) "thought" he was. There was a rupture of the feed line in the building stack wall that occurred behind his toilet breaking the fill tank and line resulting in the massive amount of water. Nine units severely affected (including mine). My initial assessment is roughly $9,000 worth of damage to my personal property. 

My weekend is ruined, LITERALLY.

Wow that’s awful 

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 44 here this morning. Coldest we’ve been since 5/19. 

[MossMan]

45 for a low here. Brrr. 

[MossMan]

10 hours ago, Jbolin said:

All these pics seem to be missing something, 

Oh, I know. A foot of snow

Here you go!
sorry about the Atmospheric River in your apartment this morning.

[Front Ranger]

14 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s been really really nice IMO overall I’ve enjoyed this month. I’m just ready for us to start getting some real fall storm trains rolling. We’ve definitely shifted into more cooler fall weather with occasional rains but I’m ready for some real stormy weather. 

This is good for your job as well, right?

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He made the finals for the Oregon bowling association. I believe he snagged the final spot in the finals at the semis. He’s actually a really good bowler and this is basically his first season back in competitive bowling in almost two decades. 

That's awesome. So much talent on this forum.

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Breezy next week?

 

Hurricane Season transferred to the North Pacific since the Atlantic can't produce

[Front Ranger]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Every Christmas at Tim's!

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Every Christmas at Tim's!

Lexus every year would get boring. Gotta change it up with a Range Rover every couple years. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA dropped to 48 this morning.  Summer is completely over now.

No doubt with these early troughs and chilly air an early season cold event is looking like a decent bet.  I really hope this isn't an early season only type of winter though.  With a Nina that is less likely that would be the case with neutral IMO.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

45 for a low here. Brrr. 

I pulled off a 44! 

[T-Town]

47 for a low here. Up to 55 now. Having a little family gathering here today and the weather looks perfect. 

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty great cold snap.  The first half of the month was incredibly mild so the overall numbers for the month were pretty subdued 

That was probably the best case of an AR turning to snow ever recorded in this region.  Incredible transition from mild to cold.

December 1974 was another one where that happened, but with much more mundane cold air to work with.  One of the big snows I remember from my childhood.

[snow_wizard]

My MTD average is falling like a rock now.  Another very sharp transition this year.

[DareDuck]

35 here this morning. First frost of the season. With the leaves beginning to change it feels like a nice fall morning. 

[snow_wizard]

Going to be a spectacular day once this high cloud debris gets past.

[Deweydog]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA dropped to 48 this morning.  Summer is completely over now.

No doubt with these early troughs and chilly air an early season cold event is looking like a decent bet.  I really hope this isn't an early season only type of winter though.  With a Nina that is less likely that would be the case with neutral IMO.

18 hours 46 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Noice!  Chilly end to September on the ECMWF.  41 is no slouch for SEA this early.