September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

A little while back, I posted how the PDO has a unusually high correlation with EPO in October (-PDO favors +EPO). It was a 75% correlation, going back to 1948. Now LR models are developing a +EPO for at least early October (this is a cold H5 anomaly vs the central pacific warmth of -pdo).

I'm just saying.. it's working as a forecasting tool, whether the driver or not.. 

Good signs.

[Ray]

7 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My wife had a whoops right after high school, and the dad ended up being a total deadbeat.  We met when her daughter was 3 and got married within a couple years.  We discussed whether or not to wait, and I pointed out that the typical "honeymoon" period with no kids was out of the picture for us, and plus, my half siblings are/were 10, 8 and 6 years older than me and it was kinda rough.  I'm sitting there watching cartoons while my high school aged brothers (8 & 10 years older) were out causing so much trouble my mom was on a first name basis with the sheriff (rural, small town Georgia).  That huge age gap was kinda rough, we didn't really have any kind of relationship until we were much older, and unfortunately, they both passed before we really had a chance to enjoy that relationship.  And I don't have much of a relationship with my sister (6 years older than me).

 

Any way, we didn't want that big of an age gap, so she got pregnant between when we got engaged and got married.  She had a very strict "one kid in diapers at a time."  She had a miscarriage on the first attempt at kid number 2 (or 3 counting the step daughter), so my son was 4 years later instead of the planned 3 years.

 

 

Your wife was smart.  We had three in diapers at the same time. We adopted my oldest daughter as an infant from China in September of 1998 and the twins (boy and girl) were born in February 1999.  Going from zero to three in five months was a shock to say the least.  Looking back I wouldn't trade it for anything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Ray said:

Your wife was smart.  We had three in diapers at the same time. We adopted my oldest daughter as an infant from China in September of 1998 and the twins (boy and girl) were born in February 1999.  Going from zero to three in five months was a shock to say the least.  Looking back I wouldn't trade it for anything.

Trying to get my two year old out of diapers… he’s doing okay, but he did take a dump in the laundry basket the other day. Tried to deny it too…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS has been pretty adamant we see a very moist November-January period. December looks like the coldest month, mild January and chilly February and March. 

[AlTahoe]

19 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

2022-2023 was persistently cold. That winter had so many small snowfalls and sub 40 highs. The late December blast was pretty impressive even though we only had like 3/4” of snow. 

It was the coldest winter in Tahoe since 1951-1952. 4 straight months of below average temp with no melt period.

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome to Fall

00z GFS in 13 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 15 hours 42 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Trying to get my two year old out of diapers… he’s doing okay, but he did take a dump in the laundry basket the other day. Tried to deny it too…

We've all been there, am I right?

46.2 and the heat is currently running.

[Jbolin]

Rob's back. 

And on the first day of fall, you know what that means. 

[MV_snow]

29 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to Fall

00z GFS in 13 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 15 hours 42 minutes

Welcome back! When you first post for the year, I can already feel the cold in my bones.

[T-Town]

Colorful sunrise this morning. Low of 50.4 here which is also my current temp. 

[snow drift]

52 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to Fall

00z GFS in 13 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 15 hours 42 minutes

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

We've all been there, am I right?

46.2 and the heat is currently running.

Great to see you back, Rob!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Rob's back. 

And on the first day of fall, you know what that means. 

Night shift baby!

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Last winter’s niño didn’t develop from the WPAC, so the -PMM/-PDO actually aided its development from costero-more to EPAC-canonical structure via equatorward contraction of the ITCZ/Hadley Cell there. Last time we saw an east-to-west developing niño was 1972, which was also -PMM/-PDO at onset.

The PDO is only “negative” right now because of the widespread warm SSTs everywhere. Correct for global SST anomaly and we have a neutral PDO/PMM.

What is costero?

[TT-SEA]

At dinner last night with our sons after the Huskies game they were talking about much they love snow and how their favorite childhood memories are of playing in the snow at our house.   My son who is obsessed with skiing said his favorite thing was going out when it was dark and shoveling the driveway with the lights on while it was still snowing and having the driveway get covered again right behind him.   He said he would lay down in the driveway and look up and watch the snow falling on him under the lights.  They also both commented on how much they love the silence of heavy snow falling and everything being muted.   

This all came up because we were talking about possibility selling the house and now my wife is having second thoughts.  

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS has been pretty adamant we see a very moist November-January period. December looks like the coldest month, mild January and chilly February and March. 

I sure hope we can get a cold January for once.  Obviously the CFS is far from being the last word on anything.

I'm glad it's persistently showing a period of cold weather though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At dinner last night with our sons after the Huskies game they were talking about much they love snow and how their favorite childhood memories are of playing in the snow at our house.   My son who is obsessed with skiing said his favorite thing was going out when it was dark and shoveling the driveway with the lights on while it was still snowing and having the driveway get covered again right behind him.   He said he would lay down in the driveway and look up and watch the snow falling on him under the lights.  They also both commented on how much they love the silence of heavy snow falling and everything being muted.   

This all came up because we were talking about possibility selling the house and now my wife is having second thoughts.  

That is incredibly cool!

Mothers will do anything to make their sons happy. 

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I don't know if it's from car emissions, but my money is on it continuing at least through my lifetime..  It seems to me to be something that has happened, and everything is catching up. 

We shall see.  I just think this idea that CO2 is the only thing that matters is very short sighted.

[snow_wizard]

The model war on the potential Gulf hurricane continues to rage with the GFS being much more aggressive with development than the ECMWF.  Pretty odd this has been going on for many days now.  ECMWF continues to be very anemic with it.

[High Desert Mat?]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I sure hope we can get a cold January for once.  Obviously the CFS is far from being the last word on anything.

I'm glad it's persistently showing a period of cold weather though.

But if it said we were going to have a cold January then it would be written in stone already

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What is costero?

SSTA warming focused along Peruvian coast to Nino1+2, often with some extension to Nino 3.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to Fall

00z GFS in 13 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 15 hours 42 minutes

The gang is all here.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The model war on the potential Gulf hurricane continues to rage with the GFS being much more aggressive with development than the ECMWF.  Pretty odd this has been going on for many days now.  ECMWF continues to be very anemic with it.

The tropical Atlantic is so d**n warm I’d be surprised if we don’t see a burst of activity as the seasonal transition gets underway.

This isn’t like 2022 where SSTs were near climo. Actual water temps are on par with those in the west-pacific warm pool, essentially the warmest on earth.

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to Fall

00z GFS in 13 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 15 hours 42 minutes

 

[Phil]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At dinner last night with our sons after the Huskies game they were talking about much they love snow and how their favorite childhood memories are of playing in the snow at our house.   My son who is obsessed with skiing said his favorite thing was going out when it was dark and shoveling the driveway with the lights on while it was still snowing and having the driveway get covered again right behind him.   He said he would lay down in the driveway and look up and watch the snow falling on him under the lights.  They also both commented on how much they love the silence of heavy snow falling and everything being muted.   

This all came up because we were talking about possibility selling the house and now my wife is having second thoughts.  

You about to be the undisputed forum Florida man.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

The gang is all here.

Hide the women!!

[TacomaWx]

15 hours ago, Timmy said:

They aren’t much good there. It’s best to read the nws afd. I lived there for 3 months, there is really just partly cloudy or t storms unless you are in Hilo, then it just rains there.

Yeah I figured for small scale details it wouldn’t be any help more of just big picture out of curiosity. 

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see.  I just think this idea that CO2 is the only thing that matters is very short sighted.

I haven’t heard anyone say that. But it does matter.

[SpaceRace22]

Does anyone else wish that Zillow had a sort by elevation feature? I've literally been using Google Earth to find neighborhoods within commuting distance of Seattle that are over 1,000', and I think I've finally found everything in King County at least.

For anyone curious, here's what I found, lol:

-The very top of the Issaquah Highlands go up to around 1100'-1300' but you'll need to drop $4,000,000 for one of those houses.

-Go slightly east from there, and there are some homes above Preston as high as 1400'. These are more in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range.

-The triangle between Duvall, Monroe, and Sultan has many homes in the hills around 800-1400". Prices range from $600,000-$1,500,000 around here. With the convergence zone, I would guess that this is probably the snowiest location one can live within 45 minutes of Seattle (not counting Snoqualmie Pass). Anyone have any idea just how much snow they actually do average up here? Bet there are some pretty impressive winters in this area.

-The elevation winner though would be the houses on the south slopes of Tiger Mountain, just above Mirrormont. I was able to find homes up to 1500' in elevation here. Prices $1,000,000-$4,000,000.

-Can't forget North Bend. Both the North and South side of the valley feature homes climbing up the mountains to around 1100-1400'. Probably runner up for most snow here I would guess.

-For those who work in the South Metro, there are some technically commutable options in the far flung exurbs east of Black Diamond & Ravensdale, like Franklin, Palmer, Durham, and Selleck, with elevations around 800-1100'. Plenty of homes under $1,000,000 here, but it's a long commute to almost anywhere.

 

 

Can anyone think of any obvious other locations that I missed? I might compile a list of 500'+ neighborhoods next, lol

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

The tropical Atlantic is so d**n warm I’d be surprised if we don’t see a burst of activity as the seasonal transition gets underway.

This isn’t like 2022 where SSTs were near climo. Actual water temps are on par with those in the west-pacific warm pool, essentially the warmest on earth.

That was a big part of the argument for a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season early in the season, though. And then with Beryl happening so early, lots of folks were pointing to the super warm SSTAs. The season since then has been opposite of what was expected....oops.

Lots of factors at play.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Does anyone else wish that Zillow had a sort by elevation feature? I've literally been using Google Earth to find neighborhoods within commuting distance of Seattle that are over 1,000', and I think I've finally find everything in King County at least.

For anyone curious, here's what I found, lol:

-The very top of the Issaquah Highlands go up to around 1100'-1300' but you'll need to drop $4,000,000 for one of those houses.

-Go slightly east from there, and there are some homes above Preston as high as 1400'. These are more in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range.

-The triangle between Duvall, Monroe, and Sultan has many homes in the hills around 800-1400". Prices range from $600,000-$1,500,000 around here. With the convergence zone, I would guess that this is probably the snowiest location one can live within 45 minutes of Seattle (not counting Snoqualmie Pass). Anyone have any idea just how much snow they actually do average up here? Bet there are some pretty impressive winters in this area.

-The elevation winner though would be the houses on the south slopes of Tiger Mountain, just above Mirrormont. I was able to find homes up to 1500' in elevation here. Prices $1,000,000-$4,000,000.

-Can't forget North Bend. Both the North and South side of the valley feature homes climbing up the mountains to around 1100-1400'. Probably runner up for most snow here I would guess.

-For those who work in the South Metro, there are some technically commutable options in the far flung exurbs east of Black Diamond & Ravensdale, like Franklin, Palmer, Durham, and Selleck, with elevations around 800-1100'. Plenty of homes under $1,000,000 here, but it's a long commute to almost anywhere.

 

 

Can anyone think of any obvious other locations that I missed? I might compile a list of 500'+ neighborhoods next, lol

There is @MR.SNOWMIZER’s area near Green Mountain in Kitsap County around 800 feet elevation but the commute sucks rocks unless your job is also in Kitsap.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Does anyone else wish that Zillow had a sort by elevation feature? I've literally been using Google Earth to find neighborhoods within commuting distance of Seattle that are over 1,000', and I think I've finally found everything in King County at least.

For anyone curious, here's what I found, lol:

-The very top of the Issaquah Highlands go up to around 1100'-1300' but you'll need to drop $4,000,000 for one of those houses.

-Go slightly east from there, and there are some homes above Preston as high as 1400'. These are more in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range.

-The triangle between Duvall, Monroe, and Sultan has many homes in the hills around 800-1400". Prices range from $600,000-$1,500,000 around here. With the convergence zone, I would guess that this is probably the snowiest location one can live within 45 minutes of Seattle (not counting Snoqualmie Pass). Anyone have any idea just how much snow they actually do average up here? Bet there are some pretty impressive winters in this area.

-The elevation winner though would be the houses on the south slopes of Tiger Mountain, just above Mirrormont. I was able to find homes up to 1500' in elevation here. Prices $1,000,000-$4,000,000.

-Can't forget North Bend. Both the North and South side of the valley feature homes climbing up the mountains to around 1100-1400'. Probably runner up for most snow here I would guess.

-For those who work in the South Metro, there are some technically commutable options in the far flung exurbs east of Black Diamond & Ravensdale, like Franklin, Palmer, Durham, and Selleck, with elevations around 800-1100'. Plenty of homes under $1,000,000 here, but it's a long commute to almost anywhere.

 

 

Can anyone think of any obvious other locations that I missed? I might compile a list of 500'+ neighborhoods next, lol

I don't of many homes in North Bend above 1,000 feet.   There are plenty of homes around that elevation though. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't of many homes in North Bend above 1,000 feet.   There are plenty of homes around that elevation though. 

Yeah there's definitely not many. Same with most of the locations on that list, really. There's probably only like 5 or less homes over 1,000' in all of King County currently for sale right now.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Does anyone else wish that Zillow had a sort by elevation feature? I've literally been using Google Earth to find neighborhoods within commuting distance of Seattle that are over 1,000', and I think I've finally find everything in King County at least.

For anyone curious, here's what I found, lol:

-The very top of the Issaquah Highlands go up to around 1100'-1300' but you'll need to drop $4,000,000 for one of those houses.

-Go slightly east from there, and there are some homes above Preston as high as 1400'. These are more in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range.

-The triangle between Duvall, Monroe, and Sultan has many homes in the hills around 800-1400". Prices range from $600,000-$1,500,000 around here. With the convergence zone, I would guess that this is probably the snowiest location one can live within 45 minutes of Seattle (not counting Snoqualmie Pass). Anyone have any idea just how much snow they actually do average up here? Bet there are some pretty impressive winters in this area.

-The elevation winner though would be the houses on the south slopes of Tiger Mountain, just above Mirrormont. I was able to find homes up to 1500' in elevation here. Prices $1,000,000-$4,000,000.

-Can't forget North Bend. Both the North and South side of the valley feature homes climbing up the mountains to around 1100-1400'. Probably runner up for most snow here I would guess.

-For those who work in the South Metro, there are some technically commutable options in the far flung exurbs east of Black Diamond & Ravensdale, like Franklin, Palmer, Durham, and Selleck, with elevations around 800-1100'. Plenty of homes under $1,000,000 here, but it's a long commute to almost anywhere.

 

 

Can anyone think of any obvious other locations that I missed? I might compile a list of 500'+ neighborhoods next, lol

Hahaha that’s what I started out doing.

Assuming you don’t want to build a color coded elevation map in ArcGISPro () you can always use this site. Color bar adapts to elevation range as you zoom in/out, while retaining high resolution.

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-qmzktj/Washington-D-C/?center=47.57089%2C-122.41936

 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That was a big part of the argument for a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season early in the season, though. And then with Beryl happening so early, lots of folks were pointing to the super warm SSTAs. The season since then has been opposite of what was expected....oops.

Lots of factors at play.

 

Same foundational logic but different context. ITCZ/Hadley Cell were insanely wide/poleward this summer, such that African wave activity was literally tracking over the southern Sahara.

Now with the seasonal transition underway (higher latitudes cooling, tropical lapse rates steepening, ITCZ retracting equatorward) it wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a late season burst of activity. Could run well into November this year.

Of course it’s a multifaceted equation and there are still failure modes, but the parameters have changed and the potential failure modes will be different.

[CloudJunkie]

21 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Does anyone else wish that Zillow had a sort by elevation feature? I've literally been using Google Earth to find neighborhoods within commuting distance of Seattle that are over 1,000', and I think I've finally found everything in King County at least.

For anyone curious, here's what I found, lol:

-The very top of the Issaquah Highlands go up to around 1100'-1300' but you'll need to drop $4,000,000 for one of those houses.

-Go slightly east from there, and there are some homes above Preston as high as 1400'. These are more in the $1,000,000-$2,000,000 range.

-The triangle between Duvall, Monroe, and Sultan has many homes in the hills around 800-1400". Prices range from $600,000-$1,500,000 around here. With the convergence zone, I would guess that this is probably the snowiest location one can live within 45 minutes of Seattle (not counting Snoqualmie Pass). Anyone have any idea just how much snow they actually do average up here? Bet there are some pretty impressive winters in this area.

-The elevation winner though would be the houses on the south slopes of Tiger Mountain, just above Mirrormont. I was able to find homes up to 1500' in elevation here. Prices $1,000,000-$4,000,000.

-Can't forget North Bend. Both the North and South side of the valley feature homes climbing up the mountains to around 1100-1400'. Probably runner up for most snow here I would guess.

-For those who work in the South Metro, there are some technically commutable options in the far flung exurbs east of Black Diamond & Ravensdale, like Franklin, Palmer, Durham, and Selleck, with elevations around 800-1100'. Plenty of homes under $1,000,000 here, but it's a long commute to almost anywhere.

 

 

Can anyone think of any obvious other locations that I missed? I might compile a list of 500'+ neighborhoods next, lol

If you go about six miles east of Hobart on SE 208th Street, there's a little neighborhood hidden in the middle of the forest at ~1650 feet elevation. I've always wondered why it's there. It's miles away from any other civilization.

[Tenochtitlan]

Couple woolly bears I saw yesterday at Multnomah Falls. What do their colors say about the upcoming winter? Lol. 

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I haven’t heard anyone say that. But it does matter.

It's implied.  No doubt it does matter to some extent.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Couple woolly bears I saw yesterday at Multnomah Falls. What do their colors say about the upcoming winter? Lol. 

Seems pretty obvious to me.