September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Jbolin]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Rita Hayworth?

Got her stuffed down the front of yer' pants, do ya? 

[Deweydog]

Fire in the sky!

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Got her stuffed down the front of yer' pants, do ya? 

Personally, I’ve moved on to Roquelle.

[Timmy]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Personally, I’ve moved on to Roquelle.

Perfect afternoon on the Columbia.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Winterdog said:

Don't take it too hard, there are 10 others who didn't like the post.  Thanks for being considerate and recanting your accusation.  In retrospect I should have realized that the post could be taken the way you saw it.  I may be old but I can learn new tricks.

Seems like you get the gist but lets not joke about that stuff. Just too sensitive of a topic for the weather board.

[LowerGarfield]

I love the Fall. The one thing about September / Early Oct is that  time when weather wise it always feels like we're waiting for interesting weather. No freezes yet, waiting for rain (Eastern WA) but not as hot (not acclimated). Fall IS my favorite season however.

[CloudJunkie]

6 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Lol oh man, great find! This has to be highest elevation option that could reasonably be considered part of the Seattle metro still. I just looked at it, and there's a few houses there between 1750' and 1800'. It must be completely different world up there most winters.

I've been getting recruited by a company based in Kent, and if I ever decide to make the move, that is exactly the kind of neighborhood I'll be looking for a place in. Thanks

It's beautiful but it would make for a sketchy commute in the winter. Keep a shovel and a chainsaw in your trunk!

[CloudJunkie]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Tonight’s view toward gloomy, snowless, yuppified Gig Harbor. 

I grew up in Gig Harbor before it went yuppie. I go back every six months to see the dentist, but it feels like a completely different town. Key Peninsula still has the mossy vibe I grew up with though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18 straight months above normal. Depressing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh no 

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

70/44 yesterday and 72/47 today. 

Exact same here.  Just perfect temperature wise.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh no 

ECMWF is catching up too.  Strangely enough my dad and sister both live in Florida now.  Never would have guessed that would ever happen.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

18 straight months above normal. Depressing.

That is just straight up ridiculous.  We've had a few below normal mixed in here.

[snow_wizard]

I definitely think chilly nights when I see this.

[snow_wizard]

30s showing up in the lowlands on this run.  I am really liking what I'm seeing.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Depends on what metric you use. I’m sure Tim would love gig harbor. If I could afford to live there I would. It’s beautiful with great views and water access. Really fun town.
 There would be more foggy inversion days and more marine intrusions…you’d also get less post frontal cloudy days banked up on the cascade foothills. Less rain than north bend…less snow as well. 

Less cold which would be a non starter for me.  I refuse to move anywhere that is less cold and or snowy than here.

[snow_wizard]

The PDO is really starting to get a classic minus look now with cooling between the West Coast and 140W while the NW Pacific is going off the charts warm.  Water along the immediate coast is definitely cold now.

[Gradient Keeper]

14 hours ago, MV_snow said:

Welcome back! When you first post for the year, I can already feel the cold in my bones.

Thanks! I can almost see the arctic front passing south through Williams Lake.

14 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Great to see you back, Rob!!

Thanks, Tiger. A few things you can always rely on occurring.

Taxes.
Offended people with green hair.
Chipotle staining underwear.
Me showing up for the fall and winter model riding season.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 hours ago, iFred said:

The gang is all here.

It's time for everyone to sit around the campfire with weenies and s'mores while singing Kumbaya, well through the 2nd verse, and then running inside to watch the 00z ECMWF run unfold. Priorities. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh no 

Wait until model runs start spitting out 910-919mb. Book it. MBG Money Back Guarantee.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, CloudJunkie said:

It's beautiful but it would make for a sketchy commute in the winter. Keep a shovel and a chainsaw in your trunk!

Yes.  That is problem with pretty much all of these higher elevation locations near Seattle.  Storms will leave you without power for days, and the roads could be bad when nobody else gets snow.  You will always be the last in line to get services in cases like that.  Somewhere like where Tim lives are an exception though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wait until model runs start spitting out 910-919mb. Book it. MBG Money Back Guarantee.

Up until now there was something the ECMWF wasn't liking about the situation.  Seems like that is going away now though.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up until now there was something the ECMWF wasn't liking about the situation.  Seems like that is going away now though.

Looking like this could be an analog to Michael in 2018.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z HAFS 923mb

00z HMON 912mb(run not done yet)

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looking like this could be an analog to Michael in 2018.

If it is, 99% chance I’m chasing. Not gonna miss another cat4/5.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z HAFS 923mb

00z HMON 912mb(run not done yet)

Scary.

At this point it appears the ECMWF thinks the ULL over the continent is going to interfere with the development of the storm.  Still weaker than a lot of other models.

[BLI snowman]

Great day at the Hawks game today. With any luck, the last warm home game of the year!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z HMON peaked around 909mb

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Scary.

At this point it appears the ECMWF thinks the ULL over the continent is going to interfere with the development of the storm.  Still weaker than a lot of other models.

Actually that ULL could augment upper level outflow depending on where exactly it’s located.

[snow_wizard]

On the good side of the ledger it appears the hurricane won't stall so flooding won't be such a big issue with this one.  Looks like it swings through pretty fast.

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z HMON peaked around 909mb

10 miles further south and that would be literal doomsday for Tampa Bay

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

10 miles further south and that would be literal doomsday for Tampa Bay

Yes it would. Let's hope not! Baker Mayfield will not have a good passer rating that game.

[snow_wizard]

0z GFS continues the below normal temp below normal precip theme.

[Cold Snap]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Scary.

At this point it appears the ECMWF thinks the ULL over the continent is going to interfere with the development of the storm.  Still weaker than a lot of other models.

Looks like 10-E in the pacific could hinder development as well due to the shear caused from it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z HWRF 921mb

Night Shift 6z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes

[SpaceRace22]

00z HAFS-B is a spicy one

[Gradient Keeper]

27 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

00z HAFS-B is a spicy one

The wind might actually knock over Cantore.

[Cold Snap]

How about that NAM run tho!

[Gradient Keeper]

37 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

How about that NAM run tho!

Okay, that would even knock over Roker.

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

How about that NAM run tho!

Or windstorms, or snowstorms, or cold waves, or..........