September 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think soil moisture or lack there of is the reason for the excessive heat in E WA

I’m gonna go with ridging and warm air.

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m gonna go with ridging and warm air.

right over E WA and nowhere else.  It's all that hot air we're blowing over here

[Thermal Trough]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the 6 feet was drifts.  No way it was anywhere near that where most people live.  That having been said it looks like an exceptional event for them.

 

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Digging a little bit deeper it appears Johannesburg got snow with this event which is only the fourth time this century.  Getting it in September makes it SUPER rare.  It appears that has only happened once since the 1950s.  

The news accounts don't tell how much the city got, but places near there had a huge amount.

Looks like a very anomalous event for them!

[Thermal Trough]

Looks like low 90s for PDX tomorrow. 12+ hours of daylight ends tomorrow and it wants to go out with a bang We won’t see 12+ hours daylight again until March 17 of next year.

[TacomaWx]

73/62 today but will easily get a midnight low tonight 64 here currently. Felt fairly muggy today. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, when talking about "fall" weather in the PNW, the general expectation is it arrives sometime between the 10th and 20th of September. As we all know, transition month.

Once fall-like weather arrived basically on time this year, it has been pretty seasonal for the west side...despite the blowtorch first week of the month.

Lately there’s been a lot of falls where the storm train doesn’t start until late October or after. It feels like forever waiting for the exciting weather to start.

[Tenochtitlan]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Lately there’s been a lot of falls where the storm train doesn’t start until late October or after. It feels like forever waiting for the exciting weather to start.

Along with the warming summers, the later onset of rain is making our climate more truly Mediterranean.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Along with the warming summers, the later onset of rain is making our climate more truly Mediterranean.

Four of the last five Septembers at SEA have been wetter than the long term average.

[Tenochtitlan]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Four of the last five Septembers at SEA have been wetter than the long term average.

Huh. Maybe it’s just summer proper that has been drier lately. It sure seems like fall is starting later than it used to. 

[Slushy Inch]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Four of the last five Septembers at SEA have been wetter than the long term average.

What about temps? 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What about temps? 

2023: -.6

2022: +2.2

2021: -.7

2020: +2.9

2019: +.2

2018: -.3

Of the last six, two very warm and four near normal. June and September have been much closer to historical norms than the ridiculousness of July/August the past decade. Especially when it comes to precip...although August made strides this summer.

[Chewbacca Defense]

20 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Wife's best friend lives in Tampa.

 The family moved from Camano around 2006 or 2007 when they had to sell their house or some property in FL due to the looming recession. Her parents still live in Hernando Beach right on the gulf.

 

They had some pretty wild water damage on that first hurricane that hit FL after a record streak that lasted like 10 years. A pretty weak one, just Cat 1 or 2 but came close. I think they did okay wirh Irma though. She isn't on the water now. She's used to hurricanes but not snow and was here when we had a few inches on the ground.

My godmother was disgustingly wealthy and had a couple of condos right on the water on Long Boat Key (just south of Tampa Bay,) and she also had a couple of condos in West Palm Beach.  One year (would have been late 70's or early 80's) she was down at her place in Long Boat when a hurricane threatened to run up the west coast of Florida.  So, they loaded up the car and headed for West Palm.  About half way there revised forecasts came out that had it hitting Miami up to WBP.  So they had to turn around and head back.  I think it might have wobbled again and they had to turn around again.  I don't remember what happened with the storm, but I think they ended up pushing through to West Palm as the condos there were in a high rise.  I think she said it weakened rapidly as it approached shore.

[Slushy Inch]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2023: -.6

2022: +2.2

2021: -.7

2020: +2.9

2019: +.2

2018: -.3

Of the last six, two very warm and four near normal. June and September have been much closer to historical norms than the ridiculousness of July/August the past decade. Especially when it comes to precip...although August made strides this summer.

Oct 2020 really skewed my perception. 80s well into month.

[Front Ranger]

GEM has one for you fans of fall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

GEM has one for you fans of fall.

Need to save that for late Nov-Feb.

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Need to save that for late Nov-Feb.

I agree. No need to start the gloom early.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Lately there’s been a lot of falls where the storm train doesn’t start until late October or after. It feels like forever waiting for the exciting weather to start.

The temperature drop has been just fine though.  That's the bigger deal to me at this point.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Need to save that for late Nov-Feb.

Why.  I'm always a fan of troughs like that no matter what time of year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The temperature drop has been just fine though.  That's the bigger deal to me at this point.

It's gonna be 90F+ here tomorrow...

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Along with the warming summers, the later onset of rain is making our climate more truly Mediterranean.

I think this climate is loosely Med.   Too many things don't really line up.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's gonna be 90F+ here tomorrow...

It's one day.  We just had a two week run of below normal temps and it will be below again very soon.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just recorded a 64F DP on September 23rd

[DeepFriedEgg]

63F DP at PDX

Seems kind of unprecedented. Hopefully someone who knows more can verify or correct me on that.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Just recorded a 64F DP on September 23rd

Yeah the dew point got up to 63 here today.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

63F DP at PDX

Seems kind of unprecedented. Hopefully someone who knows more can verify or correct me on that.

It's not....

We had dewpoints near 70 on 10/21/2003. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's not....

We had dewpoints near 70 on 10/21/2003. 

This poster also recently said we’ve been having unprecedented troughing…

[Gradient Keeper]

00z models: HWRF 921mb, HMON 925mb, HAFS-A 936mb, HAFS-B 923mb

[Gradient Keeper]

6z models: HWRF 922mb, HAFS-A 921mb, HAFS-B 909mb, HMON 941mb

Weak

57.2 here

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z models: HWRF 922mb, HAFS-A 921mb, HAFS-B 909mb, HMON 941mb

Weak

57.2 here

I want to see an 875mb! 
Anyway, currently 56 degrees. Had a high of 70 yesterday. Gorgeous! 
And Good Morning Moon. 

Edited September 24 by MossMan

[Tyler Mode]

Down to 54 this morning.  Looking forward to tomorrow's much cooler weather.

[Slushy Inch]

8 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z models: HWRF 921mb, HMON 925mb, HAFS-A 936mb, HAFS-B 923mb

Welcome back Gradient Keeper!

[the_convergence_zone]

Thickest fog of the season this morning. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

18z ECMWF totally deballed the Gulf hurricane.  May not even make cat 1 if it's correct.  The atmosphere is just hostile to tropical storm formation over the Atlantic Basin this season.

The EURO is trash this year, especially in the tropics. No reason to even use it at this point for TC purposes. 

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The EURO is trash this year, especially in the tropics. No reason to even use it at this point for TC purposes. 

Rapid intensification looks quite likely as this thing lifts north the next couple of days. 

[the_convergence_zone]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The EURO is trash this year, especially in the tropics. No reason to even use it at this point for TC purposes. 

Yeah and the same degree of skepticism should be given to the models that blew it up to cat 4/5. The NHC has 115 mph...plus likely weakening at landfall due to increasingly hostile environmental conditions. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yeah and the same degree of skepticism should be given to the models that blew it up to cat 4/5. The NHC has 115 mph...plus likely weakening at landfall due to increasingly hostile environmental conditions. 

NAM 3km says it should be around 880mb before landfall.   it always goes absolutely crazy with tropical systems.  

[ShawniganLake]

Rainy season is officially off and running for the north and central coast of BC. Bella Bella has had 5.5” of rain so far from this AR with another 4”+ looking quite possible 

[iFred]

55 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Thickest fog of the season this morning. 

Same in Everett, but its that annoying fog where your visibility is about 500ft, so its just really humid and not spooky at all.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Same in Everett, but its that annoying fog where your visibility is about 500ft, so its just really humid and not spooky at all.

Non-spooky fog is the worst. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Same in Everett, but its that annoying fog where your visibility is about 500ft, so its just really humid and not spooky at all.

There's a difference?