general items of interest - yby - seasonal forecasts Autumn/Winter General Discussion

[jaster220]

Wanted a thread for seasonal outlooks and related items that don't belong in the monthly or storm dedicated threads. 

This will be my first autumn at my new place. I was greeted last January with a very snowy period and back-to-back storms. Seems to be a theme every time I move (minus Detroit Metro). 

I wanted to correct something I posted a week or so ago. I said that my new locale of Harrison is not considered NMI - more so Mid-Michigan. Geographically that may be true, but when it comes to weather pattern zones, we are north of that dividing line. Here's an early season snowstorm map that illustrates pretty well where that invisible line lies:

 

Roughly just NW of a Muskegon-Grand Rapids to N Saginaw Bay line. When a storm focuses on the S end of the NMI zone Harrison will do well. When the jack-zone is further N from M-72 to M-68 we will get some but not significant amounts. This after a case-study of 5 or 6 storms that I pulled from my memory. The 2 large storms of March 2012 and December 2012 are included as good examples. Harrison did well in March and less so in December. The closest airport with a full data set unfortunately is due east (Gladwin) and they get quite a bit less annual snowfall than here. Which caused my cousin who lives there to gripe a bit. The other data set is about 30 miles N at the Houghton Lk airport and they get quite a bit MORE than here so really neither is a good barometer of expectations my new back yard. So, I resorted to using the snow depth map video link on the set of storms I had come up with. It looks like this place gets mostly 6-12" amounts. However, Harrison has been included in all the deep snow pack historic winters that I can recall going by the same video (78,79,85, etc with 2+ foot OTG).

The mostly snowless historically BAD winter of 2011-12 actually treated NMI much better. Couple map examples of better snow depth:

 

And here's a very stark comparison map from were I was formerly in SEMI vs up here. Days since last Bliz Warning from 12-25-22

There was also a Bliz Warning in last week of Feb of 2019:

Edited September 4 by jaster220
TYPO

[Meatyorologist]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wanted a thread for seasonal outlooks and related items that don't belong in the monthly or storm dedicated threads. 

This will be my first autumn at my new place. I was greeted last January with a very snowy period and back-to-back storms. Seems to be a theme every time I move (minus Detroit Metro). 

I wanted to correct something I posted a week or so ago. I said that my new locale of Harrison is not considered NMI - more so Mid-Michigan. Geographically that may be true, but when it comes to weather pattern zones, we are north of that dividing line. Here's an early season snowstorm map that illustrates pretty well where that invisible line lies:

 

Roughly just NW of a Muskegon-Grand Rapids to N Saginaw Bay line. When a storm focuses on the S end of the NMI zone Harrison will do well. When the jack-zone is further N from M-72 to M-68 we will get some but not significant amounts. This after a case-study of 5 or 6 storms that I pulled from my memory. The 2 large storms of March 2012 and December 2012 are included as good examples. Harrison did well in March and less so in December. The closest airport with a full data set unfortunately is due east (Gladwin) and they get quite a bit less annual snowfall than here. Which caused my cousin who lives there to gripe a bit. The other data set is about 30 miles N at the Houghton Lk airport and they get quite a bit MORE than here so really neither is a good barometer of expectations my new back yard. So, I resorted to using the snow depth map video link on the set of storms I had come up with. It looks like this place gets mostly 6-12" amounts. However, Harrison has been included in all the deep snow pack historic winters that I can recall going by the same video (78,79,85, etc with 2+ foot OTG).

The mostly snowless historically BAD winter of 2011-12 actually treated NMI much better. Couple map examples of better snow depth:

 

And here's a very stark comparison map from were I was formerly in SEMI vs up here. Days since last Bliz Warning from 12-25-22

There was also a Bliz Warning in last week of Feb of 2019:

@TigerWoodsLibido was getting a bunch of snow in the south Willamette on the day of the last couple graphs!

[Tom]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wanted a thread for seasonal outlooks and related items that don't belong in the monthly or storm dedicated threads. 

This will be my first autumn at my new place. I was greeted last January with a very snowy period and back-to-back storms. Seems to be a theme every time I move (minus Detroit Metro). 

I wanted to correct something I posted a week or so ago. I said that my new locale of Harrison is not considered NMI - more so Mid-Michigan. Geographically that may be true, but when it comes to weather pattern zones, we are north of that dividing line. Here's an early season snowstorm map that illustrates pretty well where that invisible line lies:

 

Roughly just NW of a Muskegon-Grand Rapids to N Saginaw Bay line. When a storm focuses on the S end of the NMI zone Harrison will do well. When the jack-zone is further N from M-72 to M-68 we will get some but not significant amounts. This after a case-study of 5 or 6 storms that I pulled from my memory. The 2 large storms of March 2012 and December 2012 are included as good examples. Harrison did well in March and less so in December. The closest airport with a full data set unfortunately is due east (Gladwin) and they get quite a bit less annual snowfall than here. Which caused my cousin who lives there to gripe a bit. The other data set is about 30 miles N at the Houghton Lk airport and they get quite a bit MORE than here so really neither is a good barometer of expectations my new back yard. So, I resorted to using the snow depth map video link on the set of storms I had come up with. It looks like this place gets mostly 6-12" amounts. However, Harrison has been included in all the deep snow pack historic winters that I can recall going by the same video (78,79,85, etc with 2+ foot OTG).

The mostly snowless historically BAD winter of 2011-12 actually treated NMI much better. Couple map examples of better snow depth:

 

And here's a very stark comparison map from were I was formerly in SEMI vs up here. Days since last Bliz Warning from 12-25-22

There was also a Bliz Warning in last week of Feb of 2019:

Thanks Jaster!  I appreciate the new thread and I'm sure this one will be picking up in activity by months end.  I'll start doing some digging and pre-season patten analysis.  I always enjoy reading your historic storms from the past.  Even though we are 100's of miles away, I feel like I'm closer to you and the GL's crew!  It brings back some good memories of when I lived back in Chi.

[Madtown]

3 day long blizzards  Little House on the Prairie style. This winter is gonna rock. 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Madtown said:

3 day long blizzards  Little House on the Prairie style. This winter is gonna rock. 

The way the CFSv2 is trending for this Winter across the norther GL's/MW....Boy, get your snow gear ready my man!  I'd love to plan a trip up to the U.P. in JAN and go see the Ice formations along Lake Superior.  That's one of things that I want to witness in person and endure those Winter moments.

[Tom]

Here's Wx Bells 1st take...

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

[Tom]

Yikes, the latest Euro Seasonal says "What Winter?"  Head to Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada...

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Yikes, the latest Euro Seasonal says "What Winter?"  Head to Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada...

Would like to see some monthly progs.  

I think there's a shot of December turning out ok, which I'd like because of the holidays and easiest to retain snowcover then.  

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Yikes, the latest Euro Seasonal says "What Winter?"  Head to Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada...

I just noticed that.... We're lucky if we see any consistent below avg temps anywhere in the CONUS before November. Honestly pretty pathetic.

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

I just noticed that.... We're lucky if we see any consistent below avg temps anywhere in the CONUS before November. Honestly pretty pathetic.

Let’s see bc it’s going to come down to blocking in key  geographical  regions and I’ll be keeping a keen eye on the LRC.  I do think also the Euro has a bias of holding troughs in the west.  The waters in the NE PAC seem to be warming up instead of cooling as we head into Autumn.  Lots of details to iron out.  The battle between the USA and Euro…JMA seasonal comes out in a week or so.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would like to see some monthly progs.  

I think there's a shot of December turning out ok, which I'd like because of the holidays and easiest to retain snowcover then.  

I didn’t see the individual monthly maps…yes, I think DEC is looking decent up by the Lakes.

[jaster220]

On 9/6/2024 at 4:05 PM, Tom said:

Here's Wx Bells 1st take...

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

Solar running high is certainly not what you need if you are looking for deep winter. Especially with the backdrop of our current era's warmth. Tanking ocean temps may come into play as a counter-acting agent but TBD really. 

Snowfall totals have been normal or BN the last five winters up this way per the data for the two sites I mentioned previously. 2018-19 was the last "big winter" when this region had at least 125% of the 30 yr avg of snowfall. Last winter was especially brutal at Houghton Lk. Their 32.4" tally was a paltry 53% of avg. The swath of heaviest snow during the storms in January was fairly narrow hitting Harrison and Gladwin, but missed them to the east. Odd-ball event tbh.

WxBell's early guess snowfall map has mby in the AN area and their line bisecting The Mitt reminds me of the NYE 1978 snowstorm swath that ended up in that exact location. 

I realize one is a seasonal total forecast while the other is a seasonal snapshot in time. But I have been reviewing past seasons of lore here and couldn't help but notice the similarity. 

If the line shifts SE ofc that would be good, but it could just as easily end up NW again and continue the streak of BN snowfall winters. Only time will tell. Have to wait and see what nature has up it's sleeve. I would appreciate snow leading up to and including the holidays. Seen an awful lot of brown Decembers since the infamous 2014.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If this were to happen, someone of the East Coast is going to get a lot of snow. This has guaranteed Nor'easter written all over it.

[Up_north_MI]

On 9/6/2024 at 4:05 PM, Tom said:

Here's Wx Bells 1st take...

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

Thanks for posting Tom. Any idea how accurate their winter forecast was last year? 

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If this were to happen, someone of the East Coast is going to get a lot of snow. This has guaranteed Nor'easter written all over it.

So according to him this lack of action over the Atlantic was foreseen due to climate change causing a more stable atmosphere in the tropical tropopause?  Then why on Earth were they calling for a record shattering season?  I say BS.  They just keep moving the goal posts as they get owned by Mother Nature.  I've seen them do this with a host of other claims they made over the years as well.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

Thanks for posting Tom. Any idea how accurate their winter forecast was last year? 

Thet did real bad last two winters.  Take it with a grain of salt.  Maybe this year he’s a bit more cautious on any sustained cold over the eastern CONUS due to the MJO.

[Up_north_MI]

On 9/4/2024 at 7:13 PM, jaster220 said:

Wanted a thread for seasonal outlooks and related items that don't belong in the monthly or storm dedicated threads. 

This will be my first autumn at my new place. I was greeted last January with a very snowy period and back-to-back storms. Seems to be a theme every time I move (minus Detroit Metro). 

I wanted to correct something I posted a week or so ago. I said that my new locale of Harrison is not considered NMI - more so Mid-Michigan. Geographically that may be true, but when it comes to weather pattern zones, we are north of that dividing line. Here's an early season snowstorm map that illustrates pretty well where that invisible line lies:

 

Roughly just NW of a Muskegon-Grand Rapids to N Saginaw Bay line. When a storm focuses on the S end of the NMI zone Harrison will do well. When the jack-zone is further N from M-72 to M-68 we will get some but not significant amounts. This after a case-study of 5 or 6 storms that I pulled from my memory. The 2 large storms of March 2012 and December 2012 are included as good examples. Harrison did well in March and less so in December. The closest airport with a full data set unfortunately is due east (Gladwin) and they get quite a bit less annual snowfall than here. Which caused my cousin who lives there to gripe a bit. The other data set is about 30 miles N at the Houghton Lk airport and they get quite a bit MORE than here so really neither is a good barometer of expectations my new back yard. So, I resorted to using the snow depth map video link on the set of storms I had come up with. It looks like this place gets mostly 6-12" amounts. However, Harrison has been included in all the deep snow pack historic winters that I can recall going by the same video (78,79,85, etc with 2+ foot OTG).

The mostly snowless historically BAD winter of 2011-12 actually treated NMI much better. Couple map examples of better snow depth:

 

And here's a very stark comparison map from were I was formerly in SEMI vs up here. Days since last Bliz Warning from 12-25-22

There was also a Bliz Warning in last week of Feb of 2019:

Thanks for starting this topic Jaster, looking forward to hopefully discussing a lot of winter weather this coming winter here. Does the NWS out of Grand Rapids have a map like this that the NWS Gaylord has that shows the normal average seasonal snowfall? The red blob is where our place is at on the north side of Higgins lake. We’re right on the border of Roscommon and Crawford county.

[Minny_Weather]

FWIW, models are pretty consistent on Fall arriving around the end of the month.

[Tom]

Hmm, I like the way the latest JMA weeklies look to close out SEP and the opening of OCT...Big Beautiful Block between Greenland and Hudson Bay...

 

Week 2...

Wet, wet, wet....

 

 

 

Week 3-4...pretty much a carbon copy....nice look for what could be a preview of the new LRC...

 

Temp pattern is a quintessential way to illustrate a cooler Eastern CONUS...N Stream jet will drive storms into the PAC NW/N Rockies and then into the heartland/GL's...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Well, well, well....if you guys haven't seen the new JMA seasonal, take a look and you will find a beautiful blocking pattern that drives the jet stream/N Stream right into the PAC NW/Rockies into our SUB along with a "cold connection".  I'll prob post later today or tomorrow but things are looking mighty interesting to say the least!

[gimmesnow]

September in Wisconsin has been a lot warmer than last year. Feels like the patterns are lining up, was almost all lower 70s last Sept for the first two weeks, this year it's been mid to upper 80s for highs.

[jaster220]

On 9/10/2024 at 5:20 PM, Up_north_MI said:

Thanks for posting Tom. Any idea how accurate their winter forecast was last year? 

As Tom replied (And JB wrote in his forecast summary) the last two winters WxBell's winter forecast was way off. Three winters ago they scored very well. 

On 9/11/2024 at 10:42 AM, Up_north_MI said:

Thanks for starting this topic Jaster, looking forward to hopefully discussing a lot of winter weather this coming winter here. Does the NWS out of Grand Rapids have a map like this that the NWS Gaylord has that shows the normal average seasonal snowfall? The red blob is where our place is at on the north side of Higgins lake. We’re right on the border of Roscommon and Crawford county.

So, exit 206 then as I cruise by on my way to work in Grayling almost every day. Nice area up there. I like it much more than M-55 along the south side of Houghton Lk. 

I've never seen/found a seasonal snowfall map from/for GRR's CWA. For a while they were producing decent storm event maps and even an archive link but that has fallen by the wayside in the last maybe 5 or so years. DTX has a nice link of seasonal totals for many years running and a link to such that I personally enjoy (I'm a map geek tbh). GRR is strange. Their effort to get rid of LES headlines and seeming lack of enthusiasm for snowstorms runs counter to their northern climate location. I didn't like how they handled my former county when I lived in Marshall for 20 yrs, and I already wish Harrison was included in APX's region. We had 11" with the first storm in January but they insisted nobody in their CWA warranted a Warning. Same old story. I'm torn on how snowy of a winter I'd like to see since I'm stuck driving in it and I see Roscommon Cnty Road Commision is super cheap/lame maintaining US-127. You won't hear me complain if we get hammered tho, lol. 

Edited September 17 by jaster220
TYPO

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

As Tom replied (And JB wrote in his forecast summary) the last two winters WxBell's winter forecast was way off. Three winters ago they scored very well. 

Being from the NW I'm hoping Bastardi is right about this one.  Literally predicting the coldest winter of the century so far here.

[westMJim]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I've never seen/found a seasonal snowfall map from/for GRR's CWA.

I have not seen where GRR has posted a seasonal snowfall map. A lot of information is left up to the local weather office as to what historic information if any is posted. I like how Detroit has their top 20 list. I also feel that jaster should be in the Gaylord forecast area and not GRR. 

[Black Hole]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Being from the NW I'm hoping Bastardi is right about this one.  Literally predicting the coldest winter of the century so far here.

Obviously never any guarantees but the odds do appear to be stacked in your favor. Pretty much everything you would want from a teleconnections stand point, assuming they don't mess each other up somehow. 

[jaster220]

Been looking at random snowstorms that may have hit my new area before I lived here. Especially ones that I did not share any part of at my former abodes. Looks like the infamous December bomb that brought Chicago gravity wave intense snow back in 1987 hit Harrison pretty hard as well. This SLP intensified rapidly to 980 mb as it closed-off over SMI. Amazing there was places in OK with over 12" depth from this one. I'd take another of these any time.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Been looking at random snowstorms that may have hit my new area before I lived here. Especially ones that I did not share any part of at my former abodes. Looks like the infamous December bomb that brought Chicago gravity wave intense snow back in 1987 hit Harrison pretty hard as well. This SLP intensified rapidly to 980 mb as it closed-off over SMI. Amazing there was places in OK with over 12" depth from this one. I'd take another of these any time.

Boy would I have hated that storm if I could remember it.  Was just a little too young.  

It was a pretty wild one though.  Prolific thunder/lightning producer and winds of 70-90 mph in parts of Illinois.

[james1976]

Man I'd love for winter to start in November. When I was a kid there was always snow on the ground in November and most Thanksgivings were white.

[gimmesnow]

12 hours ago, james1976 said:

Man I'd love for winter to start in November. When I was a kid there was always snow on the ground in November and most Thanksgivings were white.

I would too. The sun angle is much better for skiing and snowboarding. Winter starting in late December and ending in March isn't good. Even if it's cold in March, the sun angle just destroys ski hills because of the sun angle, even if temps are well below freezing. Even if the ski hill is facing north.

[Niko]

Hopefully this December is looking much better for S MI this year. These previous ones have been extremely mild and dry. Only 2 I can remember being a snowy and cold Decembers was back in the historic winter of 2013 and that started by mid December. It was mild back then too, but suddenly all hell broke loose by mid-month and as we all know what happened the remaining of that brutal winter.  Also December 2017 was decent.

[Tom]

The good Ol' Ukie came out with their latest SEP seasonal outlook the other day and I'm seeing an important piece to the puzzle for the start of Autumn and into early Winter.  Last month, it barely showed and HP over the NE PAC and downstream troughing into Central North America.  This month, it is now showing this change in the pattern, as well as, more ridging along the E.C. and SE Canada.

Last cycle for the OCT-DEC...

 

This month...

 

This has lead the model to start "Seeing" a cooler look...you can sorta get a feel for the "corridor" of where storms will track into the PAC NW and through the Hearltand and then Out to Sea.

 

Last month's cycle, there was a big ridge in the middle of the USA...

[Tom]

As promised, I'll show some maps off the recent JMA seasonal outlook...drum roll please...

OCT...generally speaking, it looks very similar to the UKIE model and a typical La Nina pattern with a trough over W North America/Alaska as the northern jet fires up...good signal for a West-Based Greenland Block and a SW Ridge.  Looks like AN temps for me out here in the desert.

 

TEMP/PRECIP...

 

NOV...Hello Blocking...Eastern CONUS trough...cold start to winter?  Sure looks impressive, but can it hold through the Holidays???

 

TEMP/PRECIP...

 

 

DEC...Blocking still looks like it wants to LOCK up by Eastern Canada/Greenland.  Could this be the year of a dominant -NAO???  Gosh, I can't remember the last time this played out.  Prob have to go back to like 2009 or so?  I think that's the year Nebraska scored a Christmas Blizzard.

 

TEMP/PRECIP...

 

 

 

[jaster220]

On 9/16/2024 at 9:43 PM, Hoosier said:

Boy would I have hated that storm if I could remember it.  Was just a little too young.  

It was a pretty wild one though.  Prolific thunder/lightning producer and winds of 70-90 mph in parts of Illinois.

Wow, yeah harsh cut-off right at the NWIN/IL state line. I was in my native Genesee Cnty in SEMI and awoke to 30+ mph gale from due east direction. Those stiff winds as we had again 12-28-15 with the sleet storm. I wasn't totally side-lined there as the storm occluded, we went from strong T-storms to fatty flakes with 3 or 4" managing to stack mostly on non-paved surfaces. First time I had witnessed that and wasn't even aware of the phenomena leading to it (the occlusion) until years later. Had cable at the time and I remember catching Skilling's summary that evening on WGN. Obviously, his small details I can't remember all these years later other than him saying it got down to 28.94 inches of hg (remember when we used that instead millibars?). SWMI also scored the "backside bliz" in Dec 2009 courtesy again of a perfectly timed occlusion. GRR's TAF write-up the evening before was quite a read - I wish I could find it, lol.  

[Minny_Weather]

Christ.... Models are excruciating. 80s in October can't be ruled out in the southern half of MN.

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to see winter discos up. I will try to be back in more often. I hope you all have had a wonderful summer. 

First glances based simply on SSTs look like some parts of the US may get cold early. 

When you have a La Nina and such an unusual signal in the N. Pac with the warmth so far west, it leaves me in a spot of confusion on what feedbacks we will see. 

[Black Hole]

CFS, which is definitely a garbage model, has been churning out some interesting forecasts for winter. This would be legendary. 

[Black Hole]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Glad to see winter discos up. I will try to be back in more often. I hope you all have had a wonderful summer. 

First glances based simply on SSTs look like some parts of the US may get cold early. 

When you have a La Nina and such an unusual signal in the N. Pac with the warmth so far west, it leaves me in a spot of confusion on what feedbacks we will see. 

I think this may end up being an ok winter at least but hard to say just yet, as you noted. 

[Tom]

The trends off the CFSv2 for the heart of Winter keep going in a positive direction for our SUB...the blocking setting up in the NE PAC is eye opening...let me tell you, there is going to be a WORLD of COLD up in Canada this cold season.  All it takes is some blocking to deliver the GOODS and early signs are pointing that way from various other global climate models.

 

 

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

CFS, which is definitely a garbage model, has been churning out some interesting forecasts for winter. This would be legendary. 

Is there a way to go back and see what the CFS progs were showing for winter 2023-24 at this time last year?  

[Tom]

Joe D Aleo made a post on Wx Bell regarding this coming seasons La Nina combined with a Westerly QBO and high solar...that looks eerily similar to @OKwx2k4 map above...I like the SW/4 corners connection...