October 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

I work for the West Michigan Whitecaps and with the Tigers getting into the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014 is a great thrill for me as I have seen many of the teams players play here in Grand Rapids.

It will be October next week so now is a good time to look at some October discussion and look at some October weather history for Grand Rapids, Michigan.

The average mean temperature for October at Grand Rapids is 51.5 the record warmest October was in 1900 with a mean of 59.1. That October had 4 days in a row with highs in the mid 80’s. The record coldest October was in 1925 with a mean of 42.9. That October had 4 days in a row with highs in the 30’s with one day of a high of just 30. There was also 7.5” of snow that October. The record high for October is 89 on October 1^st 1897 and the record low is 18 on October 31^st 1988. The average rain fall for Grand Rapids in 4.02” The most rain fall of 9.69” fell in 2017. The least rain fall was 0.03” in 1952. The average snow fall is 0.03”  The most snow fall of 8.4” fell in 1967 (the winter of 1967/68 there was just 55..1” of snow fall) The least snow fall was 0” in many years the last time was in 2022.  Last year Grand Rapids started October with a 4 day heatwave with high temperatures in the 80’s reaching a record high of 86 on the 3^rd  The month ended with a cold Halloween with a H/L of 39/28 and there was 0.1” of snowfall.

Here is the updated (September 23, 2024) ECMWF winter forecast. Over North America, the updated ECMWF winter forecast shows mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures over eastern Canada, the southern and eastern United States, and the Midwest. The warm anomaly gets weaker toward the northern and northwestern United States, with a normal area over western Canada.

Most of the central, southern, and eastern United States are forecast with below-average snowfall. This is perhaps a bit surprising, especially for the Midwest and the far Northeast, which can get more snow in a weak La Niña winter. More snowfall is forecast for the northwestern United States and parts of the north. Most of southern Canada also has above-average snowfall for this period. There are other winter long range guesses out and I will try to toss them up from time to time.

[westMJim]

At This time the start of October looks to stay on the mild side of things.

[Tom]

Tick Tok, its about time to start showing some new signs of the LRC....can't script it a better way than the 12z GFS run for today....tropical system phasing with a northern trough over the Eastern Sub???

 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Tick Tok, its about time to start showing some new signs of the LRC....can't script it a better way than the 12z GFS run for today....tropical system phasing with a northern trough over the Eastern Sub???

 

Not bad for the Midwest but what a disaster that would be for those effected by Helene if it takes that track. Currently the only way in and out of Asheville is by air.

 

@ReedTimmerUSA

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All roads in and out of Asheville, NC are still closed! It sounds like Asheville is still only accessible by air unless you head up from I26, and even then you will encounter closures before the city. This is an absolute mega disaster for western NC on the order of Hurricane Katrina

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty much all of Minnesota is back in a drought after extinguishing a drought earlier this year. No relief at all in any models.

It's hard to be positive at all right now. Models are the exact opposite of what anyone wants.

[Tom]

As we set our sights on the new LRC pattern that gets established way up in the northern latitudes,  as the sun set in the Arctic Circle on SEP 22, it takes a couple weeks to manifest down towards the mid lats where we live. 

With that being said, a big clue is taking shape over central Canada and the Arcitc as we flip the calendar into OCT.  I see you Mr. PV...Welcome Back to North America...are we seeing a -AO/-NAO...and a +PNA??  That don't seem like a La Nina pattern...I don't see a -PNA setting up anytime soon this month...could change in NOV, but for now, it looks favorable for an active/cooler month for the Eastern CONUS.

 

ENSO 3.4 Region has cooled off but will the atmosphere respond?   Time will tell... 

 

Teleconnections...

 

 

 

Since the GEFS lead the way and it appears the EPS is now showing a similar forecast for the first 10 days of OCT, this is quite a way to open up OCT.  The west will stay dry and warm but the East definitely going to kick start some real Autumn feel in the air.

 

 

[Hoosier]

Not that I'm taking this to the bank for the entire country, but I don't know if I've ever seen the CFS have such widespread dryness in the CONUS.  This is bananas.

[jaster220]

On 9/28/2024 at 1:04 PM, Tom said:

Tick Tok, its about time to start showing some new signs of the LRC....can't script it a better way than the 12z GFS run for today....tropical system phasing with a northern trough over the Eastern Sub???

 

If we could get that scenario about a month or so later, we'd at least have a shot at a winter event in NMI. We'd need an end-of-season tropical wave to do this. Even late October could work if it was a really cold autumn. Probably happened somewhere back in time during either the Dalton or the Maunder Min's. 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If we could get that scenario about a month or so later, we'd at least have a shot at a winter event in NMI. We'd need an end-of-season tropical wave to do this. Even late October could work if it was a really cold autumn. Probably happened somewhere back in time during either the Dalton or the Maunder Min's. 

Would have to double check, but the remnants of Juan in 1985 may have produced some flakes in the northern Lakes.  It was around Halloween and into the first couple days of November.  

There are some examples of this kind of thing over the years, but it's certainly not super common.  Sandy of course dumped a lot of snow in the Apps after it went extratropical, and there was even a little snow back into parts of IN/OH.  

There's another one that happened in October 1916... around the 20th of the month.  This system made landfall as a hurricane and the remnants tracked into the Midwest.  There was several inches of snow in parts of IA/IL.  

[MinnesotaSnow]

The way this pattern is going the next time we see precipitation in Minnesota it will be in the form of snow. 

[Clinton]

The first week of October kooks to be a continuation of the warm and dry September we just had.  Pattern change please.

[jaster220]

Grid here has 31F for Wednesday morning. Could be my first sub-freezing temp of the new cold season.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Grid here has 31F for Wednesday morning. Could be my first sub-freezing temp of the new cold season.

The way I see it and feel it, the north part of our SUB will have a heckova cold season ahead....buckle up buddy...I may have to plan a visit up into the Land of the Yoopers when its a Frozen Tundra!

[Tom]

Well, it appears that an Eastern CONUS trough is likely for the 1st half of OCT.  The Euro Weeklies agree with the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies...BUT...I see some hints of the N Stream kicking in towards the later parts of OCT heading into early NOV.

Euro Weeklies...

Week 2...

 

Week 3...

 

Week 4...

 

Week 5...

 

Week 6...this is getting my part of the country interested...

 

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies showing 6 weeks of above normal temps here, I guess we will see but I hope not. September was bone dry and October looks very dry too. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

October has been a very wet month for the last 19 years. Something like 7/8 days with rain here now.. I would be surprised to see October as dry as those models are projecting. 

[Niko]

After todays dismal weather, sunny weather returns w/ a vengeance for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Temps are expected to be here in S MI absolutely fantastic with readings in the 60s and 70s and lows mainly in the 40s. Cannot get any better than this. Luv this time of the year. Lets save the good stuff for Thanksgiving week and thereafter into the colder months.

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

After todays dismal weather, sunny weather returns w/ a vengeance for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Temps are expected to be here in S MI absolutely fantastic with readings in the 60s and 70s and lows mainly in the 40s. Cannot get any better than this. Luv this time of the year. Lets save the good stuff for Thanksgiving week and thereafter into the colder months.

Ya, I was texting with my sister yesterday and she was saying its perfect bonfire weather.  I certainly miss those type of autumn days.  Enjoy it!

[westMJim]

Welcome to October. Looking back at September 2024 it was a very warm month. It was the warmest on record at Sault Ste Marie with a mean of 64.0 they have been keeping records at the Sault since 1888. It was the 2nd warmest at Muskegon and Marquette, 5th warmest at Saginaw, 6 warmest at Alpena 9th warmest at Grand Rapids and the 10th warmest at Lansing. Detroit, Flint and Houghton Lake were further down the list.

September at Grand Rapids had a mean of 66.9 that is good for the 9th warmest on record. The high for the month was 88 on the 15th 16th and 21st the low for the month was 41 on the 8th there were 15 days of 80 or better and 28 days of 70 or better. There was just 1.32” of rainfall there was just 1.04” here in MBY. At Lansing it was the 10th warmest September on record with a mean of 66.0 it was the 3rd dryest September at Lansing with just 0.65” of total rainfall.

[Black Hole]

Cooler today with highs near 80F. Low temperatures tonight will be cooler in the low 50s. But then it looks like heat returns for a few days with highs near 88-90F. Another cold front over the weekend but rain chances are essentially zero for 10+ days. 

[chescowxman]

Below are the all-time October Monthly records for Chester County. The Phoenixville 2007 temp looks about 3 degrees higher than all other stations....will look into that. So who remembers our Record October Snowstorm back in 2011? With 4" to 9" of snow across the County...with the most falling in the higher elevations?

[OKwx2k4]

Starting off October in the warm and extremely dry camp here over the next 7 days. Looks to be pretty boring in the weather sense around much of the region for a bit. 

Looking throughout days 7-14 and beyond looks to see a long-delayed (compared to many recent years) pattern reversal start to show up and possibly even a SW ridge start to show up. 

I can't stress enough how badly my region will need rainfall after the next 14 days is over if precip chances do not start to increase. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 69/47 there was a trace of rainfall the highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the NW the sun was out 36% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 67/47 the record high of 87 was set in 1971 the coldest high of 44 was set in 1974. The record low of 27 was set in 1974 and the warmest low of 63 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 1.75” fell in 2006.  The overnight low so far here in MBY is 43 and that is the current reading with clear skies.

[Minny_Weather]

80s looking likely next week. That's not normal.

 

We are going to be experiencing a late August pattern in mid-october, with no end in sight, and it's hard to squeeze anything positive out of that. This just sucks and gives fuel to climate alarmists. Obviously we all know there's a legit metorological explanation, the western ridge won't effing move, same deal as literally all last winter. 

[chescowxman]

We finally break out of the gloom starting tomorrow and we warm to above normal temps through Saturday before we start a chill down to below normal levels by early next week.

[Black Hole]

15 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Starting off October in the warm and extremely dry camp here over the next 7 days. Looks to be pretty boring in the weather sense around much of the region for a bit. 

Looking throughout days 7-14 and beyond looks to see a long-delayed (compared to many recent years) pattern reversal start to show up and possibly even a SW ridge start to show up. 

I can't stress enough how badly my region will need rainfall after the next 14 days is over if precip chances do not start to increase. 

Yep, most of the area seems to be in pretty much the same boat. And this isn't a case where subtle changes could get us rain, there is literally no path to meaningful and widespread rain in the area for the next 10+ days and likely beyond. Below is an example with the GFS through 15 days, nothing more than a tenth or two of an inch within hundreds of miles. Hopefully we can get lucky at some point because EPS weeklies suggest we stay mostly dry through October before maybe things turn around a bit in November. We will see...

[Black Hole]

ECMWF weeklies looking hideous through the end of the month with no rain and temps of roughly 4-8F above normal for my part of the world. 

[jaster220]

Had a chilly walk-in this morning:

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 69/47 there was a trace of rainfall the highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the NW the sun was out 36% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 67/47 the record high of 87 was set in 1971 the coldest high of 44 was set in 1974. The record low of 27 was set in 1974 and the warmest low of 63 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 1.75” fell in 2006.  The overnight low so far here in MBY is 43 and that is the current reading with clear skies.

..and the Tigers had their first post-season victory in 11 yrs - GO TIGERS! 

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Had a chilly walk-in this morning:

It got down to 43 here this morning.  It's been awhile since it's been this chilly.

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

..and the Tigers had their first post-season victory in 11 yrs - GO TIGERS! 

Give me the Royals and Tigers in the ALCS!

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Give me the Royals and Tigers in the ALCS!

Would KC and Detroit even been wild card teams if they hadn't gotten to beat up on my lowly White Sox all season?  

Seriously though, it is nice to see 3 AL central teams in the mix.  

[Clinton]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would KC and Detroit even been wild card teams if they hadn't gotten to beat up on my lowly White Sox all season?  

Seriously though, it is nice to see 3 AL central teams in the mix.  

The Whitesox served their purpose lol but the pitching in the central is strong.

[chescowxman]

Here in Chester County we finished September as the 65th coolest first month of autumn across 132 years of records - so pretty average. Below is the climate summary for the month across all 18 reporting stations. It was however the 14th driest September with an average rainfall of only 1.40"

 

[Thunder98]

Most of the country is very dry.

 

 

[chescowxman]

While mighty rare (only 6 times since 1893) the first measurable snow can occur in October here in Chester County PA. The last occurrence was in 2011 and was also the largest October snowstorm in county history. It was elevation driven with between 5" to 9" of snow falling across the stations over 550 ft ASL. Of note the October snow in 1972 in some areas of the county would for the most part be the only snow of the winter season. In fact at Coatesville that was the only winter that no measurable snow was recorded.

[Andie]

Texas is extremely dry. Idk if we’re dangerously dry or not.  
But we need a good rainy period.  

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, chescowxman said:

While mighty rare (only 6 times since 1893) the first measurable snow can occur in October here in Chester County PA. The last occurrence was in 2011 and was also the largest October snowstorm in county history. It was elevation driven with between 5" to 9" of snow falling across the stations over 550 ft ASL. Of note the October snow in 1972 in some areas of the county would for the most part be the only snow of the winter season. In fact at Coatesville that was the only winter that no measurable snow was recorded.

I'm a snow hound as you may have figured out since this "SUB" became half a country, lol. I just realized your region of focus is like the opposite - one single county. That's odd by my Midwest experience. In order to have so many sites gathering weather data you're talking a lot larger region of our state. One county may have only 1 or 2 cities significant enough to have a long-standing data set like you are listing. And many counties in MI don't have even one. What's different where you are at? Does it have to do with population, or climate, or longer history, or all this variety of elevation? I'm really curious.  

[CentralNebWeather]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Whitesox served their purpose lol but the pitching in the central is strong.

Royals fan here. Since you play everyone in both leagues, you don’t play as many games from your own division as you used to. 

[Minny_Weather]

End of the Euro run. I mean c'mon, this is just depressing. Looks like it could easily be August.