October 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

Could it be. Is there moisture showing up on the models in Minnesota? 
 

I’ll believe when I’m standing outside getting wet.

I'll believe it when we're within 24 hours. Next week's "big system" has already dried up on my side of the state to being yet another insignificant drop in the bucket.

I'm coming up on 2 months without measurable precip.

[MinnesotaSnow]

8 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

I'll believe it when we're within 24 hours. Next week's "big system" has already dried up on my side of the state to being yet another insignificant drop in the bucket.

I'm coming up on 2 months without measurable precip.

This has got to be a 500 year event for our region for this time of year. Middle of winter with prolonged arctic blasts, sure. Receiving 0.06” of precipitation since September 1st. How is that possible. 

[Andie]

It’s looking like No Tx will see its cooler temps in 7-10 days. Highs in 70’s. Much more Fall like.  
These 90’s are just crazy.  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 65/40 there was no rainfall. The highest wind gust was 32 MPH out of the W. The sun was out 44% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 57/40 the record high of 80 was set in 1963 the coldest high of 40 was set in 1972. The record low of 24 was set in 1969 the warmest low of 63 was set in 1991. The most rainfall of 2.24” fell in 2001 the most snowfall of 0.1” fell in 1962 Last year the H/L was 76/46.

After a cool weekend it looks to warm up again and we may approach record highs next Tuesday. The record high at Grand Rapids next Tuesday is 77 at Lansing, it is 76 and at Muskegon it is 74.  At the current time it is clear and 35 here in MBY. At GRR the current reading is 34.

[chescowxman]

Today will be our 25th straight day without rain across many spots in the county. I have found 6 stations with measurable (0.01") rain since October 1st. The most being the 0.09" of rain at West Bradford. The other 13 current stations have recorded no rain this month. The longest stretches without rain in Chester County was the 34 straight days at both Phoenixville and West Chester from October 9th thru November 11, 1924 and 31 days at Coatesville and Chadds Ford back in October 1963. A cold front passed through this morning, and we should see temperatures near to below normal through the weekend before warming to above normal by Halloween. Longer range models hint at cooler and wetter weather near Election Day!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 years ago today began a rainstorm that likely prevented a drought for most of the mid-Atlantic. This map from October 30, 2007 (just days after the October 24-27 rainstorm) shows just how close we were to having a drought: 

[Tom]

It is a cool and comfy morning here (62F), some spots have dipped into the upper 50's across the valley before the sun rises and begins to work on the temps.  We are expected to hit the upper 90's again today and through SUN...however, BIG changes are on the horizon and it's been a LONG time coming to have a streak of temps in the 70's folks.  Last weekend was very refreshing to say the least so I don't mind a little bit of Heat and extended Pool season weather.  The Snow Birds have entered the Valley and the traffic has picked up tremendously.  The local Safeway parking lot is freaking Zoo!!!

[Stormy]

On 10/22/2024 at 9:26 PM, Stormy said:

Had quite a bit of lightning and thunder from a fast moving narrow line of storms this morning, but got only 0.08".

From the other day, should’ve shared it sooner. A reddish sun briefly peeped right around sunrise and really enhanced fall colors though it wasn’t shining much in most of the photos. If the lawns would be green it would look much better! Was hoping to see a  bright rare morning rainbow, but only saw a partial barely noticeable one.

 

 

Edited October 24 by Stormy

[jaster220]

Leaves are down. Forest looking ready for the first snow. Temps have bottomed.

[Stormy]

Well, I’m looking forward to tonight’s 100% chance of showers and thunderstorms! The current NWS forecast is saying 1 to 2 inches which would be awesome!

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Stormy said:

From the other day, should’ve shared it sooner. A reddish sun briefly peeped right around sunrise and really enhanced fall colors though it wasn’t shining much in most of the photos. If the lawns would be green it would look much better! Was hoping to see a  bright rare morning rainbow, but only saw a partial barely noticeable one.

 

 

 

IMG_1647.mov 15.78 MB · 0 downloads

Just Gorgeous!  You guys are really seeing some great colors this season.  

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

17 years ago today began a rainstorm that likely prevented a drought for most of the mid-Atlantic. This map from October 30, 2007 (just days after the October 24-27 rainstorm) shows just how close we were to having a drought: 

Then this transpired for the Nation in the month of OCT...

 

November...

December 2007...

[Tom]

Just took a glance at the JMA weeklies and I'm diggin' what I'm seeing...the LRC started off rather quite for most of the SUB (prob due to a spike in the AO/NAO), but its going to turnaround big time end of this month into NOV.

 

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...Hello Eastern CONUS Trough...let's get this party started...this would be around Veteran's Day into the last week before the Thanksgiving Holiday...

 

[tStacsh]

A little Dry out there: 

 

[Andie]

We hit 90 today. Last time for a while. We’ll have a run in the 80’s and a few chances for that wet stuff that occasionally falls from the sky. 

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids may be on the line for tonight's thunderstorm action.  Some models are predicting the storms will miss me to the east and south.  Other models have the storms getting up to CR and dropping 1+".

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Leaves are down. Forest looking ready for the first snow. Temps have bottomed.

Forgot the other half.. This, after a high over 82F within the same 3-day history:

[Niko]

Absolutely beautiful weather today. Colorful trees and deep blue skies ,along w crisp cool temps, is the perfect scenario. You just wanna be outside the whole time.

[Clinton]

3km NAM showing a nice line of storms this evening.  Man I could use it.

[Minny_Weather]

Not an appreciable amount of rain today by any means, but it is definitely enough to end the nearly 2 month long streak of no measurable precip. Looks like the metro is getting quite a bit which is good to see.

[Stormy]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

3km NAM showing a nice line of storms this evening.  Man I could use it.

So far this model is turning out to be a pretty accurate with training storms just to the northwest currently.

[Stormy]

At 8:00 p.m. there was a pretty hot severe warned storm that moved through my area dumping 1/3 of an inch of rain with quite a few round hailstones up to around 1 inch in diameter here! Also smaller hail. The biggest stones still haven't quite melted as it's quite chilly too. Had send a report to the national weather service since I'm a skywarn spotter.

Edited October 25 by Stormy

[Madtown]

rain!

[MinnesotaSnow]

4 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Not an appreciable amount of rain today by any means, but it is definitely enough to end the nearly 2 month long streak of no measurable precip. Looks like the metro is getting quite a bit which is good to see.

Yeah this exceeded my expectations, almost half an inch. Had a little bit of lightning and thunder too. 

[Hoosier]

Tuesday/Wednesday look quite warm around here for this time of year.  Low temps also look extraordinarily high for this time of year.  Also, barring a dramatic evolution in the synoptic pattern, can pretty much bank on needing a wind advisory.

[Clinton]

I picked up .35 inches with a noisy thunderstorm overnight.   Not enough but maybe the ice has been broke now.  0z GFS and Euro looked great for many of us next week through the first week of November. 

 

[chescowxman]

Many of the lower spots in Chester County were well down into the 30's including a below freezing low at Warwick Park for the 7th time this month. Higher spots in the county have still not experienced even 1 freezing low this autumn. Temperatures are near to slightly below normal through the weekend before we start a nice warming trend that should peak on Halloween with temperatures that day well into the mid-70's! Of course, absolutely no rain in the forecast for at least the next week.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 62/33 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 73% of the time. For today the average H/L is 57/39 the record high of 78 was set in 2012 the coldest high of 37 was set in 1962. The record low of 20 was set in 1960 the warmest low of 59 was set in1899 in more recent times a low of 58 was set in 2023. The most rainfall of 1.05” fell in 2021 the most snowfall of 2.4” fell in 1962. Last year the H/L was 68/85 and there was 0.33” of rainfall.

[westMJim]

There is light rain falling currently I have 0.35” of rainfall so far. The overnight low and current temperature is 46.

[Black Hole]

92F here yesterday. Thankfully it'll be quite a bit cooler today. I did manage 0.06" from some showers overnight, 0.01" at the airport. Not enough to really matter. 

[tStacsh]

Been so long since it's rained, people forgot how to drive in it.  Can't wait for the first snowfall commute of the year.  

[Hawkeye]

The bullish model runs were correct with the placement of the heavy band last night.  A swath through Cedar Rapids and Iowa City 1+", with a few spots in the middle getting almost 2".  I finished with 1.11".

Meanwhile, many locations south of I-80 only got 0.25-0.50".

[Niko]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Been so long since it's rained, people forgot how to drive in it.  Can't wait for the first snowfall commute of the year.  

Especially heading towards the holidays. "Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow."

Lets enjoy the 70s next week because those could very much be the last of them until next year.

[Niko]

It rained a little bit this morning. It felt good seeing the pavement wet. Not sure how long that has been. I actually missed seeing flooding on the streets from hvy rainfall in mby. It has been a long time.

Temps are hovering at 51F under very overcast skies.

FYI: Leaves have started to fall and yesterday I saw quite a few bare trees. Those beautiful colors will be a memory very soon.

[Hoosier]

LOT is forecasting 81 in Chicago on Tuesday.  If it gets to 80, it would be the latest in a calendar year since 1971.  The record high for October 29 is 78, so that looks to be in serious jeopardy.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Especially heading towards the holidays. "Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow."

Lets enjoy the 70s next week because those could very much be the last of them until next year.

We keep thinking this, but having 82F on Monday, I can't really rule anything out at this point, lol. And I'm talking hours north of yby. 

[westMJim]

25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We keep thinking this, but having 82F on Monday, I can't really rule anything out at this point, lol. And I'm talking hours north of yby. 

 

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Lets enjoy the 70s next week because those could very much be the last of them until next year.

It is hard to say if we will see any days in November of 70 or better but in the past here is a list of the number of years that November has had at least one day  in several locations in Michigan. Detroit 39 years since 1874. Flint 26 years since 1921. Saginaw 27 years since 1912. Grand Rapids 39   years since 1892. Houghton Lake 13 years since 1913. Alpena 22 years since 1916 and Sault Ste Marie 3 years since 1888. So yes there can be days of 70 or better in November.  

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

It is hard to say if we will see any days in November of 70 or better but in the past here is a list of the number of years that November has had at least one day  in several locations in Michigan. Detroit 39 years since 1874. Flint 26 years since 1921. Saginaw 27 years since 1912. Grand Rapids 39   years since 1892. Houghton Lake 13 years since 1913. Alpena 22 years since 1916 and Sault Ste Marie 3 years since 1888. So yes there can be days of 70 or better in November.  

We are seeing some pretty intense warm spikes when they do occur, so perhaps that is something to keep in mind.

In my last post I mentioned that an 80 degree temp in Chicago on Tuesday would be the latest one to occur in a year since 1971.  Well, Chicago went on to hit 78 on November 14, 1971 with a few other days in the 70s that month.  

[hawkstwelve]

Yay for GFS phantom snow time of year!

[Stormy]

I don't think PWATS were really that high last evening because radar returns of bright red didn't result in really that heavy rainfall rates. But I guess some of that was due to hail with many reports of hail. The trailing line of convection also weakened so quickly and didn't keep back building like often with a low level jet feed. At least it didn't seem like it here. I got just barely half inch of rainfall total. At least that much!