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October 2024 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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Happy Halloween! Yet another warm beautiful day on the way with temperatures while not record warmth for trick or treaters it will still be well into the 70's with some low 80's in lower elevations. Cold front cross tomorrow morning with very slight chances of rain. Much chillier over the weekend with temperatures falling back to near normal levels to start November.image.png.d55debe50698f8b114074f3d4ece1f64.pngimage.png.31ab943f8f1af129a8400fb94822ae74.png

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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I finished with 2.53".  The heaviest band set up from south of Des Moines, to Cedar Rapids, to Dubuque, to Madison.  Totals quickly fell to the southeast of this band.

I got no rain for the first three weeks of October.  I finished the month with 3.64".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yesterday was an incredibly warm late October day At Grand Rapids official H/L was 79/65 the 79 tied the record while the 65 is a new record warm low \. for the date. There was no rainfall, the sun was out 29% of the time and the peak wind was 36MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 54/38 the record high of 79 was set in 1950 the coldest high of 32 was set in 1917. The record low of 20 was set in 1988 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1974. The wettest was 1.27” in 1994 the most snowfall was 1.5” in 1917.

Records were either tied or set once again yesterday with record highs of 79 at Grand Rapids, 78 at Flint and Saginaw, 77 at Detroit and Alpena. New record warm lows were also set a all locations with lows in the mid to upper 60’s The overnight low here in my MBY was 67. The current reading is 68 with dark clouds to the west.

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I will take a look at the weather history for Halloween. At Grand Rapids the average high/low for Halloween is 54/38. The record high of 79 was set in 1950, it has reached 70 or better in 10 years, the last time was in 1981. The coldest maximum of 32 was set in 1917. There have been 5 years when the high did not reach 40 the last time was in 1996. There have been 7 years with a high of 40 the last time was 1995.  1917 was the year that seen the most snow fall at Grand Rapids when 1.5” fell, 0.4” fell 100 years later in 2017 that was the last time it snowed on the 31st The record low of 20 was set in 1988. As that would be the morning low The low on November 1st was 36 so it may not have been that bad for trick or treating.  A low of 21 was recorded in 1976 on November 1st so that was a cold night of trick or treating.  The wettest was 1.27” of rain in 1994 and there was 1.21” of rain in 2013.  

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1.33" at my place yesterday. Severe weather was confined well to the west and northeast of me. Felt cool out there at 51F this morning, but that's more a symptom of how warm its been since that is still above normal :lol:

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

I will take a look at the weather history for Halloween. At Grand Rapids the average high/low for Halloween is 54/38. The record high of 79 was set in 1950, it has reached 70 or better in 10 years, the last time was in 1981. The coldest maximum of 32 was set in 1917. There have been 5 years when the high did not reach 40 the last time was in 1996. There have been 7 years with a high of 40 the last time was 1995.  1917 was the year that seen the most snow fall at Grand Rapids when 1.5” fell, 0.4” fell 100 years later in 2017 that was the last time it snowed on the 31st The record low of 20 was set in 1988. As that would be the morning low The low on November 1st was 36 so it may not have been that bad for trick or treating.  A low of 21 was recorded in 1976 on November 1st so that was a cold night of trick or treating.  The wettest was 1.27” of rain in 1994 and there was 1.21” of rain in 2013.  

That 1994 Halloween is etched into my memory.  It was also very rainy where I was and it was the day of the American Eagle plane crash near Roselawn, IN.  I remember watching the coverage of it that evening.  So sad.  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Eagle_Flight_4184

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After temps in the 80’s yesterday, and some light rain, we’re looking at 60* and sunshine.  
Gorgeous Fall day!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Up to 80 degrees in East Nantmeal. This is the latest 80 degree reading in the 21 years I have taken observations here.80 pic.jpg

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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It was suppose to rain today all day in mby, but nada, so far. Looks like maybe a little later this evening per radar. Another mild day w readings into the 70s. Gotta luv this autumn season.

Btw: most trees are now going bare. Beautiful colors will very soon be  a memory, but I thoroughly enjoyed it. Wind Advisory issued for my area, as well, so the leaves will certainly be flying around.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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4 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Mby got 2.01 past 24 hrs. My 3rd largest precip event in 2024. Totally too late for lawn care and food plots both of which  have struggled greatly for years.

Yeah the moisture came way too late to save our yards here from drying out and going dormant early… however I noticed a slight “green” up in my backyard today in heavy sun areas. We ended up at a storm total of 0.85” with the additional overnight drizzle and showers… nice to feel the ground saturated from a nice day of rain and storms yesterday.

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After temps in the 80’s yesterday, and some light rain, we’re looking at 78 and sunshine the next 2 days!

🙌

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I ended up with 1.31" storm total, which brings my Oct. total to only 2.01". The grass appears a hair greener.

PWATS were higher with this system as a thin reddish line on radar last evening produced brief really high rain rates. Had to wonder how intense it was in CR where the line was much wider! Earlier yesterday clouds were precipitating when it hardly appeared it should. But rain wasn't avaporating much when falling through a moister layer of air either.

 

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October stats for KC.  I finished the month with 1.7 inches of rain thanks mostly to the storms last night. 
 
Conversatio
Fall-like temperatures arrived today just in time for Halloween...however, this October is going to end up 5.5 degrees above normal. 14 of the 31 days of the month reached 80+ degrees...that is tied for the 6th most on the 137-year record for KC. 
all-like temperatures arrived today just in time for Halloween...however, this October is going to end up 5.5 degrees above normal. 14 of the 31 days of the month reached 80+ degrees...that is tied for the 6th most on the 137-year record for KC. 
 

 

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After this morning's "sprinkle" event with 0.01" of rain here in East Nantmeal Township that ended our dry streak at 32 days we clear up this afternoon and turn windier and chillier. A slightly chillier than normal weekend ahead before we warm back up to near 70 degrees by Election Day next Tuesday. We cool a bit again by the end of the first week in November.

image.png.320590a12a76e6d294a1532f74b07b0b.pngimage.png.67e3eef667589aaa012ee80e2ec77266.png

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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On 10/31/2024 at 8:46 AM, westMJim said:

I will take a look at the weather history for Halloween. At Grand Rapids the average high/low for Halloween is 54/38. The record high of 79 was set in 1950, it has reached 70 or better in 10 years, the last time was in 1981. The coldest maximum of 32 was set in 1917. There have been 5 years when the high did not reach 40 the last time was in 1996. There have been 7 years with a high of 40 the last time was 1995.  1917 was the year that seen the most snow fall at Grand Rapids when 1.5” fell, 0.4” fell 100 years later in 2017 that was the last time it snowed on the 31st The record low of 20 was set in 1988. As that would be the morning low The low on November 1st was 36 so it may not have been that bad for trick or treating.  A low of 21 was recorded in 1976 on November 1st so that was a cold night of trick or treating.  The wettest was 1.27” of rain in 1994 and there was 1.21” of rain in 2013.  

It was indeed one of the coldest trick-or-treat evenings where I was in Flint back then with temps in the 30s and winter coats required. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/31/2024 at 8:22 PM, Stormy said:

I ended up with 1.31" storm total, which brings my Oct. total to only 2.01". The grass appears a hair greener.

PWATS were higher with this system as a thin reddish line on radar last evening produced brief really high rain rates. Had to wonder how intense it was in CR where the line was much wider! Earlier yesterday clouds were precipitating when it hardly appeared it should. But rain wasn't avaporating much when falling through a moister layer of air either.

 

Yes, we got bulls-eyed by the wide part of the heavy line.  It was pretty heavy, a rate of about 2"/hr for 15 minutes.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We start off November with temperatures near to below normal this weekend. We could see another freeze in the typically colder lower spots and frost in ridge locations overnight tonight and again on Sunday night. We warm back into the low to mid 70's by Wednesday before another cool down toward the end of the week.

image.png.fef0ad169e0e174ee4069652ce9ac2b5.pngimage.png.3b24b4f868c4ac5ad6baea1ee32bbdad.png

Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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The latest HRRR for just tonight shows 2-4" in the Tulsa area tonight with rain ongoing at the end. It'll be interesting to see just how much water we can rack up the next few days. The November record is 8.29" (Tulsa) in 1931. Second is 7.57" in 1946 and 7.30" in 1974 is third. Daily rainfall record is 3.20" tomorrow, 2.49" Monday. 

hrrr-oklahoma-total_precip_inch-0631600.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I'd need to look more closely to be sure, but going from such a bone dry Sep-Oct to a potentially record breaking wet November feels unusual for La Nina. Anybody know for sure?

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Below is the Climate Summary for Chester County PA for October 2024. Of 18 reporting stations 12 finished with above normal temperatures and 6 with below normal temperatures. Overall we finished at 1.8 degrees above normal for October. This is the first month since July that we finished with overall above normal temperatures in the County. It was for most locations one of the driest Month's on record with most spots recording no rain at all.image.thumb.png.df0d7980f607ad9abb458baf6b1a47c5.png

 

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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