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October 2024 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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Here in Chester County we saw our first subfreezing low of the season with the 31.9 degree reading at Warwick. Several of the lower spots in the County were in the 33 to 34 degree range so some likely frost in many areas under 450 feet ASL. Most of the higher spots remained in the low 40's like the 40.1 degree reading in East Nantmeal.
Another below normal day before a big warmup for the weekend followed by a chill down that lasts all of next week. Highs next week will likely remain in the 50's for high temperatures in the higher spots with no higher than the low 60's in lower locales. We should also see some additional frost or freeze chances by next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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Hello Novembrrr! (or early December in Detroit)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Liking that trailing weakness there. I'd love to see that over land in about 6 wks with a hand-off. 

Hope everyone is enjoying the transition to flash-fall. That's what it seems like. It's going to feel like hard autumn for a lot of us in a week. 

Yes, and I'm fully anticipating a trough to drive down into the 4 corners the following weekend which will drive temps DOWN for Arizona and maybe some snowfall up at the higher peaks?  Those members up north are goign to get a Taste of Winter the way I see it.  Glad to see the Euro AI jumping onto the pattern change and now the GFS is flashing it in Lala Land.  Lesss Go!

 

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23 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Fall is coming

In a Bigly Fashion...Good Ol' Fall whiplash is coming for the GL's this weekend and then a classic Indian Summer warm up followed by a cold close to OCTOBRRRR!!

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Already have risen over 30 degrees since the morning low, with temps rapidly heading toward 80.  

I think this may be the last 80+ degree day here this year, but wouldn't be shocked if there's one more at some point.  Given climo and what the extended looks like, the window is starting to close.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is what you call a "Dam Breaking Cold Outbreak"...Euro AI has been showing more runs of something that I think is going to happen...

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I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on this before getting my hopes up. But definitely a way more promising future than there was a week or two ago.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Boy, that is quite the lake effect setup around here early next week.  Most persistent may end up a little east, but we'll get in on it too.  This setup has just about everything you could ask for with the long fetch, deep moisture, lake induced el. perhaps pushing 20k feet, delta T values over 20C, and so on.  Would think that there will be thunderstorms and waterspout potential as well.  It's just too bad that it's not colder because then I'd really be geeking out.  Freezing levels drop below 4k feet, but that's too high and the boundary layer is torching, so forget about snow.  

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Krazy Wx! 

22F yesterday morning then 80F and TS this evening!

image.png.362f9f88eaa036d4fd65c637bc44b775.png

(these kind of swings in winter can spell big wildness if this be some of the LRC)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

In a Bigly Fashion...Good Ol' Fall whiplash is coming for the GL's this weekend and then a classic Indian Summer warm up followed by a cold close to OCTOBRRRR!!

See my last post. Already getting that up here in NMI. Winter>summer>winter in short order

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

This is what you call a "Dam Breaking Cold Outbreak"...Euro AI has been showing more runs of something that I think is going to happen...

1.gif

 

This is a good way to get multiple artic outbreaks over the Winter.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

This is what you call a "Dam Breaking Cold Outbreak"...Euro AI has been showing more runs of something that I think is going to happen...

Warm temps over Alaska are the top pattern for cold outbreaks pouring into the Midwest.. models trended significantly toward this today vs yesterday. 

I'm actually amazed by this model shift.. I wonder if its because of the Solar flares? Yesterday they had a -PNA pattern building in the LR, which would be a warmer pattern. completely different now. 

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14 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Warm temps over Alaska are the top pattern for cold outbreaks pouring into the Midwest.. models trended significantly toward this today vs yesterday. 

I'm actually amazed by this model shift.. I wonder if its because of the Solar flares? Yesterday they had a -PNA pattern building in the LR, which would be a warmer pattern. completely different now. 

I don’t think it’s the solar flares.  During this time of year the models tend to be erratic trying to figure out a solution.  I have been seeing more ridging rather than a trough-like pattern hugging NW Canada/AK in the modeling.  As we get closer in time, it appears to be a repetitive pattern.  The last few years that has not been the case and that region had a record cold start to their cold season.

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It is way too warm for mid October.  Also, it seems it is never going to rain again.  This pattern needs to end.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Back on this day October 12, 2006, the earliest snowfall of 1” or better when 2.0”  fell at Grand Rapids. There was also over 1” of snow at Flint with 2.3” and Lansing 1.5” the next earliest snowfall of 1” or better was on October 19,1989. Here is a complete list of years when there was a snowfall of 1” or better in October. 2006, 1997, 1992, 1989, 1987, 1976, 1967, 1962. 1925, 1923, 1917, and 1906. The biggest October snowstorm was on October 27, 1967, when 8.2” of snow fell. On October 19, 1989, 4.5” fell and 1.5” more fell the next day. On October 28, 1925, 3.5” fell. Of the years with the biggest snowfalls of October the winter season there were 2 with below average snow fall and two with above average snowfall.  As for 2006/07 there was not another snowfall of 1” or better until December 1st of that year.  That winter November, December and January all had below average snowfall. February, March and April had above average snowfall the winter season ended up with 83.3”

Yesterday was a very warm sunny day with the official H/L of 79/43 there was no rainfall the sun was out 94% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the W.

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Down we went..plummeted actually. What a rollercoaster ride.

image.png.2b497c417f2d3b66194ad62e12b7cee3.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A good 10 degree spread in low temps this morning - with lower spots in the lower 40's like Warwick and low 50's in higher spots like KMQS and East Nantmeal. The NWS has highs today and tomorrow in the mid-70's - I suspect today may generally be around 70 with the mid-70's holding off till tomorrow. Cold front sweeps thru tomorrow night with some slight shower chances. This will usher in our coldest weather of the early fall season to date. Highs will remain below normal through the rest of the week.

image.png.3364edd700b8104f5eec757b8c274ba4.pngimage.png.4818f61a69dc455d4b3e83c49a1cfcc6.png

Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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Below is an analysis of the number of days with below freezing minimum temperatures by month and observing station for here in Chester County PA. Most locations with the exception of the highest spots will typically see their 1st sub 32 degree reading here in October. We already have seen the first freezing temperature this week at Warwick.

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Thought leaves changing was slow this fall, then this week, color exploded. Lots of falling leaves today. Love it. From our North Park Lake here in town this morning.

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Nice! Same here. Suddenly even the oaks have turned

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS and Euro..... both show ZERO rain for the next ten days.  This may be the driest period in my entire lifetime.  If I want months of no rain, I'd move to San Diego.  This is beyond ridiculous.  🤬

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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29 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS and Euro..... both show ZERO rain for the next ten days.  This may be the driest period in my entire lifetime.  If I want months of no rain, I'd move to San Diego.  This is beyond ridiculous.  🤬

I guess on the bright side, probably means things will change later this fall or in winter.  Admittedly nothing scientific in saying that.  My area seems to be more likely to run a + precip anomaly than yours this winter, but hopefully you get in on that too.  

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Long range changes every 6 hours.   It’s useless.   Yesterday it was coldmaggedon.  Today it’s warm.   Shouldn’t even look at anything post 7 days.   I’m here for the next 4 months of constant “Here comes the cold and snow” posts. Just to laugh when it ends up another warm and snowless winter for most.  

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8 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Long range changes every 6 hours.   It’s useless.   Yesterday it was coldmaggedon.  Today it’s warm.   Shouldn’t even look at anything post 7 days.   I’m here for the next 4 months of constant “Here comes the cold and snow” posts. Just to laugh when it ends up another warm and snowless winter for most.  

I'm pretty sure it will be cooler than last winter around the Lakes.  That's about all I'd say with any confidence.  

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna put this in the "why can't this be winter" file.  Quite the lake effect signal around here.

qpf_048h-imp.us_mw.thumb.png.1f603a740f06c71e97a8a9363bd0932b.png

How many times have we been shutout bc of thermals over the past few winters?  Gosh, I remember many times we had the perfect wind direction and just lacked the deeper cold.  Let this coming winter make up for it!

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

How many times have we been shutout bc of thermals over the past few winters?  Gosh, I remember many times we had the perfect wind direction and just lacked the deeper cold.  Let this coming winter make up for it!

Definitely a bit frustrating.  Realistically, I don't expect snow at this time of year (more on that below), but seeing freezing levels get down around 3500 feet as is progged in this setup is so close and yet so far.  Would have to be a couple thousand feet in the air to see it snowing.  

I'll never forget October 7-8, 2000 though.  Wasn't living too far from where I am now, and what started as some light lake effect rain changed to heavy, wet snow accompanied by quite a bit of thunder and lightning.  That airmass was colder aloft though (850 mb temps got down to about -8C if I remember right) and the low level flow turned a bit offshore during the event, which helped to deflect some of the marine warmth.  Still had trouble accumulating to a great degree (higher amounts were farther inland), but it came down so hard that it did accumulate even on the pavement and was enough to knock down tree branches.  Such a rare event for that early in the season... not like it was even late October which would be unusual enough.  I honestly think I have a better shot at getting a 2 foot snowstorm than having a repeat of that.  

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Grand Rapids had its first measurable rainfall for October yesterday with 0.51” The official H/L was 66/48 there was 55% of possible sunshine. The highest wind was 26 MPH our of the E. For today the average H/L is 62/43 the record high of 87 was set in 1975 the coldest high of 40 was set in 1909 the record low of 24 was set in 1993 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1920. The most rainfall of 1.35” fell in 1969 the most snowfall of 0.1” fell in 2006. I had a overnight low of 48 and that is the current temperature. There was a total of 0.50" of rainfall here in my yard.

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I see you "SW FLOW"...Here We Go!  You guys have no idea how much I'm looking forward to seeing MUCH cooler temps around here.  My goodness, upper 80's for Highs this coming Friday into the weekend will appear to be a Miracle from Above!  For a while, the LR climate models were not showing any chances of troughs digging into the SW/4 corners region.  I told myself, be patient, bc a similar situation happened 2 winters ago where the climate models were all suggesting a dry winter and low and behold, the entire west coast had one of the greatest winters ever.  I'm not suggesting a similar story as it's still early on in the developing LRC, but I like what the 1st few weeks are suggesting.  Not just here, but to my Family and Friends out East as well.

 

1.gif

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Our last above normal temperature day (70's for highs) on the way before a sharp turn to chillier for the remainder of the upcoming work week. High temperatures will struggle into the low 50's both Tuesday and Wednesday with frosty or even freezing temps possible Wednesday through Friday morning. Many spots have yet to record any rain this month....our only chance of rain this week looks to be tonight and that rain is likely to remain to the northwest of Chester County across Berks and Lehigh counties.

image.png.7c53bdb094b501f473c82a740dc3b387.pngimage.png.77e364a58c6fa193d31d0e75c732e18b.png

Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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It's been a nice fall day with a temp of 69.  Much better than the 91 degrees I had yesterday, hopefully that was the last 90 degree day of the year.

Kansas City hit 90 degrees yesterday...that was tied for the 9th latest 90 degree day on the 137-year record for KC. The latest 90 degree day occurred on 10/30/1950. On average the last 90 degree day for KC occurs on 9/15. #LateSeasonHeat #AndAFreezeComing

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