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October 2024 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Only the Euro AI is showing any widespread rain in the middle of the country.  I hope its right I hate this dry as a bone pattern.

43F and +RN here this evening. Walked the dog in 53F this afternoon and was surprised how comfortable it seemed. I guess those 20s up in Grayling did that to me. I figured this system coming in from the NW like a winter time clipper would be moisture starved and disappoint. But, it's delivering tonight. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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One of the consequences of this warm fall is one of the worst Asian Lady Beetle seasons I have ever seen. Feels like every day over the past couple weeks, I have killed upwards of 15-20 every day that have made it inside my place. Thankfully, freezing temps the next couple of nights should end it. 

20241013_173531.jpg

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1st Flake icon of the season

image.png.401a7d6e6044725e9a22ae697ac2b018.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 55/46 that high of 55 was the coldest high since April 24th.  There was 0.37” of rainfall the sun was out just 3% of the time. For today the average H/L is 62/43 the record high of 82 was last set in 1975 the coldest high of 43 was set in 1980. The record low of 29 was set in 1937 the warmest low of 60 was set in 1968 and 1920. The record rainfall of 1.82” fell in 2017. Last year the H/L was 54/45 and there was 0.55” of rain.

The overnight low so far here in MBY is 39 and that is the current temperature with clear skies.

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We have already reached our high for today with mid to upper 60's at midnight across the county. Windy and chilly today with temps mainly in the 50's to near 60 degrees. Tuesday through Thursday will see well below normal temperatures for mid-October with highs only in the low to mid 50's. Frost and even some freezing temps will be possible each night starting tomorrow night. We start a warming trend in time for next weekend. No rain in sight. I have recorded no rain since September 29th here in East Nantmeal.

image.png.7d91cb4fb97fbdd0c19a0a025e61e44e.pngimage.png.a3443ae4006aede668c498b114a73b90.png

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

43F and +RN here this evening. Walked the dog in 53F this afternoon and was surprised how comfortable it seemed. I guess those 20s up in Grayling did that to me. I figured this system coming in from the NW like a winter time clipper would be moisture starved and disappoint. But, it's delivering tonight. 

This is one hellova potent Upper Level wave that is tracking through the Lower lakes...you can sorta see a Vortex spin right over MKE...One can only imagine what this system would deliver in the Winter!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2024&month=10&day=13&hour=12&minute=30

 

Oct 13th-14th GL's Radar_Lake Effect.gif

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Starting to see a little color in the trees

 

2024-10-14_8-28-43.jpg

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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Happy Columbus Day!  This week, the seasons are changing out here as the great state of Arizona will see a dramatic flip in the weather pattern by Friday caused by a "Cutoff Low, Weatherman's Woe."  It's been a long, long time since I've shown much excitement in the weather dept out here and this system will surely put a LOT of smiles on peoples faces!  I'll be dusting off my autumn weather clothing.

On a side note, PHX continues the streak of record temps today and if we do set another record high, it will be Day 21...Yes folks, 3 straight weeks!  Are you kidding me?  Living...Through...History

 

 

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Models (especially the AI Euro) have teased a pattern change with a cold blast and some rain later in October, but they keep backing off/pushing it back.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

This is one hellova potent Upper Level wave that is tracking through the Lower lakes...you can sorta see a Vortex spin right over MKE...One can only imagine what this system would deliver in the Winter!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2024&month=10&day=13&hour=12&minute=30

 

Oct 13th-14th GL's Radar_Lake Effect.gif

Looks like a little meso-low embedded. For sure would be impressive "chaser" LES event if winter. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yet another long streak without rain, today is day #20.

You've had it more than once this warm season right? I hate drought

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The cooler weather is here, at least part 1. Only 70F right now, likely headed for about 73-74F this afternoon. Should fall into the 40s easily tonight with round 2 of the cooler air moving in tomorrow. I bet Wednesday morning we see our first sub 40 low for Tulsa with a high in the 60s.

Unfortunately, rain chances seem to be diminishing towards the weekend and I could easily see us keeping the dry (or mostly dry) stretch going. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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TORCHING it up out there!

image.png.531892b8b64ac81287575a011d393863.png

(Grid has 43F for our high)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

It was 23 days before the previous rain, this streak will be longer.

I can kinda understand kansas and nebraska having  10 to 25 day dry periods at times, its the plains. But for SE Iowa to literally had a dozen rounds of 10 to 21 day periods without a drop for years on end??? I personally can barely endure it. Everything most of the time covered in dust, inside and out. Whats our lungs like?  Whenever i travel to other places (especially east). I see clean houses and cars, from frequent rains(usually weekly). SE Iowa now feels like the dakotas. Oh gmo corn and beans still do fine.  But my friends im here to tell you in my area we literally are averaging 3 to 5 real wet weeks per year now!!!!!! Something is wrong. Not a  3 to 6 yr swing.  Our 60 year averages have to plummeting!  But winters slightly wetter and warmer.

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@Hoosier

Boom - your headline

Special Marine Warning


Special Marine Warning
LMZ743>745-779-150130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.MA.W.0066.241015T0026Z-241015T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
726 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Nearshore Waters from Calumet Harbor to Michigan City...
  Open Waters from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City out to Mid
Lake...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 726 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing
  waterspouts were located along a line extending from 16 nm east of
  Harrison-Dever Crib to 12 nm northeast of Calumet Harbor to near
  Indiana Harbor, moving southeast at 20 knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
           higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
  Indiana Harbor, Michigan City, Burns Harbor, and Marina Shores at
  Dune Harbor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediately.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's looking like a hard freeze Tuesday night.  The NWS has lowered our low to 26º.  Bye-bye garden.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Most spots in the county reached the 30's for lows with the coldest being our normal coldest spot Warwick Township with 32.7 degrees. The next few days will run almost 10 degrees below normal for mid-October with highs only in the mid 50's. By the weekend we warm to almost 10 degrees above normal with high approaching 70 degrees. Of course no rain for at least the next week!

image.png.9dd827f3940c6a9f2325d212ddafaf5f.pngimage.png.cae9cf43f0edf822c48116d1c402a4fc.png

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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As I sit here from afar, I can only wonder what this Clipper system can do in future cycles....Classic Lake Effect Plume/+RN scenario playing out for SE WI into NE IL...Only "IF"...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2024&month=10&day=14&hour=12&minute=25

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Could you say Autumn came hard this season after such a longggg warm spell?  I think this pattern setting up is showing us that there will undoubtedly be some BIG swings in temps across the heartland of our Nation.  Battle Zone for sure.

Oct 15th NWS Alert Map.png

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Could you say Autumn came hard this season after such a longggg warm spell?  I think this pattern setting up is showing us that there will undoubtedly be some BIG swings in temps across the heartland of our Nation.  Battle Zone for sure.

Oct 15th NWS Alert Map.png

 

 

I feel like this kind of arctic hound will be unleashed much more often than the occasional outbreaks JB has been touting. More on the order of that Wx Direct vid I posted in the other thread. Funny how APX issued that one small Frost Adv, then we got the real-deal hard freeze without any headline, and now nada. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Its a cold Autumn day so far outside w temps hovering at 43F under mostly cloudy skies. Heading down to freezing tanight and upper 20s are not outta the question in spots. Even colder tomorrow nite.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Also, Color is in full range now (at peak). We should be approaching past peak by late October into early Nov. Its definitely late in the season this year, thanks to the very warm days  and mild evenings we had earlier in the Fall.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Darn it, we can not break this dry pattern. We are cycling nothing but dry!! The first 20 days of Sept. KC did record a drop of rain...We are now going to achieve that again in October as we are at ZERO for the first 15 days and the next 5 days look dry. 

Maybe a bit frosty tomorrow morning, no real hard freeze here in KC and then its right back to 70-80 degree weather Friday through early next week. The storm dropping into the SW later this weekend looks to come out quite dry for my area early next week. Another 384 hours of completely dry on the latest GFS run,(its been very accurate on showing nothing and us getting nothing for 70 days now) however, there has been a few wet runs in there the last few days. Hoping that it returns in the data. 

On a positive note, the cool morning's and warm to very warm afternoons have been enjoyable. 

D2 Drought(severe) here in KC. Nothing worse than drought patterns 

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Lunch time..

image.png.830c22bdfe3f429d2aa920c394b13a34.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, MMike said:

Darn it, we can not break this dry pattern. We are cycling nothing but dry!! The first 20 days of Sept. KC did record a drop of rain...We are now going to achieve that again in October as we are at ZERO for the first 15 days and the next 5 days look dry. 

Maybe a bit frosty tomorrow morning, no real hard freeze here in KC and then its right back to 70-80 degree weather Friday through early next week. The storm dropping into the SW later this weekend looks to come out quite dry for my area early next week. Another 384 hours of completely dry on the latest GFS run,(its been very accurate on showing nothing and us getting nothing for 70 days now) however, there has been a few wet runs in there the last few days. Hoping that it returns in the data. 

On a positive note, the cool morning's and warm to very warm afternoons have been enjoyable. 

D2 Drought(severe) here in KC. Nothing worse than drought patterns 

This new pattern has just been showing mostly mild temps and some nice temp swings for a couple days then back to mild but DRY! Not a good look to the pattern to start out so dry for the first 20+ days of the new pattern....

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

@Madtown, my cousin is a truck driver and he's delivering some cars in your neck of the woods on hwy 51 through Minocqua.  He sent me a video of the vibrant colors showing up.   Looks wonderful up there in the Northwoods!

Yep the past 5 days I'd say was peak. Plenty falling today. Snow showers this afternoon off the lake up here. Finished cranberry harvest today!

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Warwick Township was the cold spot this morning with our first sub 30 degree reading of the autumn season here in Chester County with a low of 29.3 at 7am. Our unseasonably chilly weather continues again today and tomorrow as high temps again remain in the mid to upper 50's. We begin to see a nice warming trend as we head toward the weekend. Many spots could see highs reaching near 70 degrees by Sunday. Our "drytober" continues with no rain in site and none falling across most spots since late September.

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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/38 there was a trace of rainfall the sun was out 67% of the possible time the highest wind gust was 30 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 61/42 the record high of 83 was set in 1938 the coldest high of 39 was set in 1943. The record low of 25 was set in 1944 and 1977 the warmest low of 64 was set in 1928. The most rainfall of 1.78” fell in 2016. Last year the H/L was 52/43.

The overnight low here in MBY was 38 so there still has not been a killing frost here yet. At the current time it is cloudy and 40.

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We now have 15 days of October 2024 in the record books. The mean at Grand Rapids so far this month is 55.9 that is a departure of +0.9 the high so far has been 79 on the 11th and the low so far has been 36 there has been 0.88” of rainfall that is a departure of -1.09” there has been no snowfall.

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Looks like my area got down to 27 or 28, depending on different apps. Wind has already starting coming out of the south. Felt frigid coming to school. Winds will crank the next 3 days, potential gusts to 50. With no rain in well over a month, red flag warnings are out. Front that looked hopeful for rain this weekend, looks like it washes out west of here. Tinder dry around here. Only positive, harvest should be completed for most by next week. 

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10 hours ago, Madtown said:

Yep the past 5 days I'd say was peak. Plenty falling today. Snow showers this afternoon off the lake up here. Finished cranberry harvest today!

20241015_092028.jpg

20241015_092455.jpg

Yup, that's what my cousin showed me up there yesterday morning when he drove through your area...this map lines up with what your saying...

MW Fall Color Map.webp

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