October 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

First freeze of the season this morning as my temp dropped to 30.

NWSKansasCity

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KC International reached a low of 30° this morning for the first freeze of the season. The average first freeze at KCI from the current 30 year climate normal period (1991-2020) is 10/22, so we came in just a bit earlier than average. Last year's first freeze was on 10/28.

[Black Hole]

39F at my place this morning, 34F at the airport. Still no rain anytime soon. 

[tStacsh]

Color looking much better than I expected this year.  Nearing peak

[Hoosier]

Looks like quite a warmup will be coming.  Possibility of a couple of exceptionally warm days for this time of year in the mix, but that's still a little nebulous.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Color looking much better than I expected this year.  Nearing peak

Snapshot for Mich. I'd say there are imbedded areas near peak on my route, while near lakes have been spared the coldest and are lagging behind a bit..

[Niko]

It certainly looks and feels like autumn. Temps in the upper 40s attm w/ partly to mostly sunny skies. No rainfall is in sight.

Now, all we need is a big all-day event autumn storm w rain, wind, temps in the 40s, wcf in the 30s, leaves falling and a hot chocolate to go w it.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

It certainly looks and feels like autumn. Temps in the upper 40s attm w/ partly to mostly sunny skies. No rainfall is in sight.

Now, all we need is a big all-day event autumn storm w rain, wind, temps in the 40s, wcf in the 30s, leaves falling and a hot chocolate to go w it.

I'm am going to enjoy this weekend.  Won't get many more like this until probably April.  

[Minny_Weather]

After what looked like a somewhat-hopeful late October, we're back to being stuck in "the next pattern change is 2 weeks away" Groundhog Day on the models.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Already 47F at 7pm. This weekend looks like it will probably hit 80s though. 

[jaster220]

Had my first 20's at home on my digital "outside temp" thermometer. Meanwhile, the always cold spot here at work is way colder. Sitting at 21F at 7 am.

 

[chescowxman]

Multiple relatively low lying spots in Chester County fell to freezing this morning including: Chester Springs, Nottingham, Warwick Park, Devault, West Bradford and West Chester. The lowest reading was the 27.6 degree low at Warwick. Higher spots like here in East Nantmeal only dropped to 36.1 degrees - but we did see our 1st light frost of the season. Today will be another.... but our last below normal day for at least the next week. We should see some Indian Summer type weather as we move through the next week with temps rising into the low to mid 70's by next Tuesday. Our very dry streak will continue. However, for the year to date here in 2024 we are still just slightly above normal in precipitation - but we will fall below normal over the next couple days.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/35 there was no rainfall the sun was out 46% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 60/42 the record high of 84 was set in 1947 the coldest high of 42 was set in 2002. The record low of 22 was set in 1972 the warmest low of 63 was set in 2016. The record rainfall of 1.91” fell in 1905 the record snowfall is a trace in several years the last time was in 2022. Last year the H/L was 55/41.

Looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 33 the low here in MBY was 31. The is moderate frost in my area and the current temperature here is 32 with clear skies and there is still moderate frost on the ground, cars and roof tops

[westMJim]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Had my first 20's at home on my digital "outside temp" thermometer. Meanwhile, the always cold spot here at work is way colder. Sitting at 21F at 7 am.

As you may already know Grayling is one of the coldest spots in Lower Michigan. 

[Tom]

I'm packing my PATIENCE over the next few days as the modeling/data tries to figure out what transpires later next week.  I'm sticking to my guns on a LR call using the Bearing Sea Rule.  TBH, the pattern should favor a more active/colder pattern setting up for mid/late next week over the norther tier/GL's region.  This region appears to be in the game to remain active with a Yo-Yo type pattern.  The models are having quite the time figuring it out, esp with "The Cutoff Low, Weatherman's Woe" system in the 4 corners....AND, more importantly, I'm paying attn to the big trough off the west coast of the CONUS early next week.  This has HUGE implications for what happens across the central CONUS later in the period.  

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies are showing the more active pattern for the MW/GL"s Week 2...

 

 

Temp/Precip...

 

Week 3-4...The Greenland Block....

 

 

Temp/Precip...I think what the model is suggesting is a more seasonal period setting up for the 1st half of NOV...

 

 

[Jayhawker85]

This new LRC screams terrible and boring until about Halloween! A great portion of this new cycle for the next year will be dry and warm. Eventually the other shoe will drop but its when, how, and for how long will be the question if we have a great winter or not

[CentralNebWeather]

Leaves blowing everywhere. Winds out of the south gusting over 50 mph. Dust blowing from fields around town. Looks like the  Dust Bowl. No thanks. 

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Leaves blowing everywhere. Winds out of the south gusting over 50 mph. Dust blowing from fields around town. Looks like the  Dust Bowl. No thanks. 

Same here..... In Central Minnesota lol. This is ridiculous.

[Minny_Weather]

80s are once again possible next week. No rain in the near future. Next week, it will have been 2 months since our last measurable precip.

[Bryan1117]

12 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Leaves blowing everywhere. Winds out of the south gusting over 50 mph. Dust blowing from fields around town. Looks like the  Dust Bowl. No thanks. 

Saw a couple decent sized wildfires in the fields yesterday on my way back from South Dakota… just crazy how such a large part of the Midwest is dealing with unseasonably warm and bone dry weather.

The winds were crazy yesterday too, probably gusting up to 45-50 MPH at times in open areas, just a bad deal all around.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 62/33 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 60/42 the record high of 82 was set in 1910,1938 and 1950. The coldest high of 35 was set in1930 the record low of 19 was set in 1976 the warmest low of 63 was set in 2007. The most rainfall of 1.32” fell in 1923 the most snow fall of 0.9” fell in 1972.  Last year the H/L was 64/38.

We had some things to do in Bay City yesterday so we took a road trip. Took the long way by going up to Big Rapids and then across M 20. I have to say the color is some of the best in a long time on that trip. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 33 officially it has yet to reach 32 or lower at Grand Rapids the next week looks to stay warm so the 1st night below 32 will be late this year.

 

[chescowxman]

A large variation in low temperatures this AM across the county with temps ranging between 30 degrees in our relatively lower spots like Warwick to 45 degrees at higher spots like West Grove. We should see our temperatures start to finally warm back to above normal levels by this afternoon and last through Wednesday before falling back to closer to normal late October levels by the end of next week. No rain in the forecast and the outlook for the remainder of the month is dry - we have an increasing chance to be in a top 3 driest October on record. With 1963 and 1924 being the current record holder of that dubious record.

[Black Hole]

Low of 38 yesterday and 47 this morning. In our way back to 80s soon and maybe as warm as 90. Too late in the season for this crap. 

[jaster220]

On 10/17/2024 at 8:23 AM, westMJim said:

As you may already know Grayling is one of the coldest spots in Lower Michigan. 

Correct you are. Sits right at the bottom of the AuSable river valley and away from any larger bodies of water. Harrison is the opposite as we are in the hills. I can see my car thermometer going up and down several times on my morning commute based on elevation changes. I saw 32F at home, and while that may not have been the lowest, we weren't anywhere close to the 22F Grayling had.

[Niko]

On 10/16/2024 at 3:19 PM, tStacsh said:

I'm am going to enjoy this weekend.  Won't get many more like this until probably April.  

I know. But dont worry, from what I am reading n hearing, this is changing to be a very weak la lina, which could be a mild winter for us. Lets wait n see what happens.

[Hoosier]

Quite the warm signal showing up on the ops/ensembles for next weekend (will be fairly warm for this time of year before that too).  If it persists, could make a run at 80 around here next weekend.  

The last time there was an 80 degree temp in Chicago after October 25 was back in 1999, so that will be something to keep an eye on.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Correct you are. Sits right at the bottom of the AuSable river valley and away from any larger bodies of water. Harrison is the opposite as we are in the hills. I can see my car thermometer going up and down several times on my morning commute based on elevation changes. I saw 32F at home, and while that may not have been the lowest, we weren't anywhere close to the 22F Grayling had.

Are you close to Torch Lake by any chance?  Have you ever been up there?  That looks like a wonderful place to go boating for a long weekend.

https://grkids.com/torch-lake-michigan-guide/

[CentralNebWeather]

It is raining, I repeat, it is raining. 

[Niko]

My temps crack 80F late next week w abundant sunshine. A real Indian summer look coming. 

I tooka smallpeak on my December outlookand boy o boy. It enters w 40s and rain. UGGGH.....another December down the drain????? Hope not. Lets see what happens.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is raining, I repeat, it is raining. 

It was enough to wet the pavement. Pretty sad that is all we got. 

[Clinton]

A little reason to hope as we get towards Halloween.   It's been a long while since I've seen above average precip over my area.

Maybe November will be a complete reversal from the warm and dry weather we've had this month.  Bring on the cold phases!

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

A little reason to hope as we get towards Halloween.   It's been a long while since I've seen above average precip over my area.

Maybe November will be a complete reversal from the warm and dry weather we've had this month.  Bring on the cold phases!

 

Noaa just had us in a map like that 10 days ago. Howd that work out?

[OttumwaSnomow]

For your viewing pleasure or the opposite!

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Noaa just had us in a map like that 10 days ago. Howd that work out?

Yes they did and based mostly on a few runs of the European model.  Good model and ensemble agreement this time and much more favorable teleconnections this time around.  Much like you I'll better when I see the first drop. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another dry and sunny day. The official H/L was 66/36 there was no rainfall for the month GR is now at 0.88” that is a departure of -1.45” since September 1st there has been just 2.20” for a departure of -3.56” For the year there has been 29.96” that is a departure of -2.17”.  For today the average H/L is now down to 59/41 the record high of 80 was set in 1910 and 1920. The coldest high of 33 was set in 1930. The record low of 19 was set in 1974 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1920. The most rainfall of 0.91” fell in 2011, the most snowfall of 4.5” fell in 1989.  Last year the H/L was 57/52 and there was 0.29” of rainfall.

The overnight low so far here in MBY is 37 that is the current temperature with clear skies.

[Minny_Weather]

9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

For your viewing pleasure or the opposite!

2-5%. Right on.

[Tom]

It's a pretty chilly (55F) and damp morning here out in the Valley of the Sun!  This was the 1st legit cool night that I slept with the window cracked open since prob 5-6 months ago.  Can you believe it?  Winter has arrived up in the higher terrain of AZ as the mountains will be snow capped this morning as daylight emerges.  Ahhhh, how wonderful it feels!  I went out on my deck around 4:30am and I could smell the sweet scent of the Creosote Bush!

Yesterday, I dusted off my hoodie and went for a walk in the morning as the CF was approaching and got dampened by a shower while I was walking.  I didn't mind at all....you have no idea how much I enjoyed it!  You can say I'm getting used to the longer boring periods of wx during the "shoulder season" in between the Monsoon/Autumn season as there was a lack of anything significant since the Monsoon shut off.   Maybe this was a fluke year due to the unprecedented late season Heat Wave of 21 straight days of record Heat!  I'd think so. 

 

 

[Tom]

@Clinton, I'm getting those + vibes as far as the SW Flow and storms tracking into the W/PNW as the new pattern is setting up.  As you mentioned in other posts, the MJO is leaning more favorable as we close out OCT and head into NOV.  I'm seeing the uptick in ensemble agreement that it'll pick up in the moisture dept over your area as we close out the month of OCT.  I was a bit concerned a few weeks ago for my area to be left out but it has trended much better.  I'm very hopeful for the "SW to Midwest Connection" this coming cold season and couple that with the -NAO/-AO block.  The AO spike early in the season is ok as it amplifies the Polar Vortex and gathers up the Arctic Air up north and builds up the snow pack.  

You can see the 0z EPS 500mb pattern going towards the Phase 8 pattern as we flip into NOV...classic SW Flow...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Tracking the ULL pivot across the central valley...the band of precip should track right over Sky Harbor.  Let's see what their instruments record.  It's raining here this morning and this is an unexpected surprise.  The models had the ULL tracking a bit farther north but it has tracked Southwest from yesterday's position over Flagstaff.  It will meander overhead today and then track up towards Flagstaff before tracking towards the 4 corners later tomorrow night.

[jaster220]

On 10/18/2024 at 1:47 PM, Tom said:

Are you close to Torch Lake by any chance?  Have you ever been up there?  That looks like a wonderful place to go boating for a long weekend.

https://grkids.com/torch-lake-michigan-guide/

Short answer no. That's due west from Grayling closer to my old residence actually in the greater Traverse Bay region. Torch lake could be called a boater's paradise and it's connected to other lakes in a chain of lakes waterway. It's a beautiful lake and fairly deep in places as well. The VP of my firm lives in that general area on Elk Lake which has a very turquoise color and connects to Torch via Lk Skegemog. That entire area is a great combination of natural beauty and upscale lifestyle options. It's the "Gold Coast" region of NWMI.