October 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another warm, sunny mid fall day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 70/38 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the time. For today the average H/L is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 36 was set in 1930. The record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974 the warmest low of 65 was set in 1920 the most rainfall of 1.11” fell in 1916 the most snowfall of 2.2” fell in 1992. Last year the H/L was 54/44.

[chescowxman]

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with unfortunately no rain in sight! We warm to well into the 70's by Tuesday with many lower elevation spots touching the 80's for maybe the final time this year. We trend cooler with temperatures getting back to or slightly below normal levels again by Friday.

[Minny_Weather]

Clown range GFS showing lows in the 70s

[Tom]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Short answer no. That's due west from Grayling closer to my old residence actually in the greater Traverse Bay region. Torch lake could be called a boater's paradise and it's connected to other lakes in a chain of lakes waterway. It's a beautiful lake and fairly deep in places as well. The VP of my firm lives in that general area on Elk Lake which has a very turquoise color and connects to Torch via Lk Skegemog. That entire area is a great combination of natural beauty and upscale lifestyle options. It's the "Gold Coast" region of NWMI. 

Thanks for that info bud...it certainly looks like a boaters paradise with an island feel to it.  The color of the water is incredible.  This is definitely on my bucket list.  I'll have to reach out to you once I plan a trip up there one of these days.

 

Meantime, it's not often that I am cooler than my old back yard this time of year...loving this reprieve from the Heat my friends!

[Stacsh]

Cold stays bottled up for awhile it looks like.   Hopefully we get a warm Halloween as last year we had some snowfall.    Trying to sniff out a pattern during transition season is still, even in 2024, nearly  impossible.   
 

All signs so far point to a very warm late October early November.   I’ll take it.  

[Clinton]

So much of the country in drought.   Bad stuff in Nebraska. 

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Cold stays bottled up for awhile it looks like.   Hopefully we get a warm Halloween as last year we had some snowfall.    Trying to sniff out a pattern during transition season is still, even in 2024, nearly  impossible.   
 

All signs so far point to a very warm late October early November.   I’ll take it.  

Kinda reminds me of 2007-08?  I remember raking leaves in a T-shirt very late into NOV...then the pattern just flipped towards an active parade of storms for IA/WI and the lower lake being in the transition zone.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Kinda reminds me of 2007-08?  I remember raking leaves in a T-shirt very late into NOV...then the pattern just flipped towards an active parade of storms for IA/WI and the lower lake being in the transition zone.

2017 was the really HOT autumn for me. October felt more like July. But somehow, by December we had full-on winter pattern. While 2007 was mild too ofc, and then that solid storm in mid-December brought 10-15" in SCMI region to kick off the active storm winter of 07-08. Then we had the NYE '07 storm bring 8-18" across similar areas.

So, from looking at past seasons, there's a lot to be said for where that first decent snow system targets. 

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Kinda reminds me of 2007-08?  I remember raking leaves in a T-shirt very late into NOV...then the pattern just flipped towards an active parade of storms for IA/WI and the lower lake being in the transition zone.

That was an epic memorable winter here. The snowiest of my records as well. I can’t really remember how the proceeding fall was, but I have records of it.

[Stormy]

I can’t remember ever having such little rainfall for such an extended period as we currently have here! Fall colors are peaking about now around here. Trees are surprisingly colorful considering how dry, but we haven’t had a hard enough freeze or rain to bring them down. Also many bright sunny days and cool nights helps. Absolutely boring weather so I might occasionally post some pictures and videos of weather events from this past summer that I had problems finding time to upload on here earlier.

[Stormy]

 

Time lapse of storms blowing up just to my southeast on 7/14/24 @ 7:00pm.

[Stormy]

 

 

This was taken during a severe thunderstorm on 7/2/24 @5:50pm. An 81 mph wind gust was measured on my wx station and the anemometer didn’t quite have full exposure to the wind though it’s around 34’ or more feet up on a windmill. The tree in the video is behind the house and other buildings which is why it’s whipping around and isn’t exposed fully to the wind.

Radar images are of the storm just to my west.

 

 

Edited October 20 by Stormy

[Hawkeye]

Fall 2007 was nothing like this, precip-wise.  My records show regular rain events through September and October, adding up to above average rainfall.  October had three 1.25+" rain events.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

2017 was the really HOT autumn for me. October felt more like July. But somehow, by December we had full-on winter pattern. While 2007 was mild too ofc, and then that solid storm in mid-December brought 10-15" in SCMI region to kick off the active storm winter of 07-08. Then we had the NYE '07 storm bring 8-18" across similar areas.

So, from looking at past seasons, there's a lot to be said for where that first decent snow system targets. 

Perfect.   December snow is the best snow for me.   Keep the lakes warm and let the cold come in winter.  

[Tom]

46 minutes ago, Stormy said:

 

 

This was taken during a severe thunderstorm on 7/2/24 @5:50pm. An 81 mph wind gust was measured on my wx station and the anemometer didn’t quite have full exposure to the wind though it’s around 34’ or more feet up on a windmill. The tree in the video is behind the house and other buildings which is why it’s whipping around and isn’t exposed fully to the wind.

 

Radar images are of the storm just to my west.

 

 

Great job on the videos and pics!  Thanks for sharing…you have a wonderful vantage point to see storms blow up over your property.  

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The color of the water is incredible.  This is definitely on my bucket list.  I'll have to reach out to you once I plan a trip up there one of these days.

Torch Lake is the deepest lake in Michigan. It is one of the last to ice over if it even does in the winter. 

[Niko]

This weather cannot get any better. Sunshine, great comfortable temps, chilly to cold nites and best of all, enjoying great foliage w/ frost on some mornings, which is very picturesque.

[westMJim]

Just now, Niko said:

This weather cannot get any better. Sunshine, great comfortable temps, chilly to cold nites and best of all, enjoying great foliage w/ frost on some mornings, which is very picturesque.

I don't know about in your area but here in west Michigan the color is the best it has been in a long time. I was up in Bay City on Thursday and the color there is good also. 

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I don't know about in your area but here in west Michigan the color is the best it has been in a long time. I was up in Bay City on Thursday and the color there is good also. 

Its very colorful here. Near peak. I have seen some real excellent colors, which I haven't seen in years. I guess because we are not getting any big windstorms this year and the weather has been so phenomenal, so leaves are staying on the trees long enough to enjoy full blown color. I.e, on my block, there is this tree that has a deep red color, which I have not seen at all these past autumn seasons. So beautiful. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Perfect.   December snow is the best snow for me.   Keep the lakes warm and let the cold come in winter.  

I like December snowstorms the most as well, even into at least mid to late January, after that, you start dealing w/ higher sun angle BS.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Stormy said:

 

 

This was taken during a severe thunderstorm on 7/2/24 @5:50pm. An 81 mph wind gust was measured on my wx station and the anemometer didn’t quite have full exposure to the wind though it’s around 34’ or more feet up on a windmill. The tree in the video is behind the house and other buildings which is why it’s whipping around and isn’t exposed fully to the wind.

 

Radar images are of the storm just to my west.

 

 

That looks like something you would see in the movies. Dang! Cool stuff, but definitely need to seek shelter when you are in the path of these storms.

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Clown range GFS showing lows in the 70s

My temps will be flirting w 80F or maybe even better tomorrow. FWIW, I'm enjoying this now because at some point in November and beyond, we will be dreaming of this beautiful weather that we are experiencing now.

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Great job on the videos and pics!  Thanks for sharing…you have a wonderful vantage point to see storms blow up over your property.  

Thank you!

From my house I can’t see too well to the west so I have to go outside. But even once I’m outside, we’re in a little dip with a slight rise to the west, which has a much better vantage point for storms moving in from the west. I’ve often wished I would live a quarter mile west (or east would work as well), but it’s ok right here. I have a lot more photos and videos, but this is a decent sample. The photos above show you some of the aftermath. The top 2 show the garden and a tree that was destroyed here, and the rest are within a mile or two. I had shared some of these photos with the NWS, so they had a few on their website. 

 

Edited October 20 by Stormy

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

This weather cannot get any better. Sunshine, great comfortable temps, chilly to cold nites and best of all, enjoying great foliage w/ frost on some mornings, which is very picturesque.

I love it too. We really need several inches of rain though!

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

My temps will be flirting w 80F or maybe even better tomorrow. FWIW, I'm enjoying this now because at some point in November and beyond, we will be dreaming of this beautiful weather that we are experiencing now.

It’s 82° here as I post this!

[Black Hole]

83F down here right now, that's probably our high for the day. May get another 90F next week but probably will stay in the mid to upper 80s. 

Looking back I see 1978, 1952, and 1948 as the other comparably dry Sep-Octobers here. All of those years did not recover from the precip deficit through the winter though it stopped getting worse at least. 78-79 was cold and snowy as was 48-49. 52-53 had some good snows but was mostly above normal temperatures. 

[Stormy]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

83F down here right now, that's probably our high for the day. May get another 90F next week but probably will stay in the mid to upper 80s. 

Looking back I see 1978, 1952, and 1948 as the other comparably dry Sep-Octobers here. All of those years did not recover from the precip deficit through the winter though it stopped getting worse at least. 78-79 was cold and snowy as was 48-49. 52-53 had some good snows but was mostly above normal temperatures. 

Hmm, My high was 83° as well. The lowest I had was 28° last week. So we had a mostly killing freeze, but the petunias still are beautiful.

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Stormy said:

Hmm, My high was 83° as well. The lowest I had was 28° last week. So we had a mostly killing freeze, but the petunias still are beautiful.

Since we only hit 38F here our tomatoes are still doing well. That was about the only thing that hadn't run its course by now but I'll take a few more weeks of production. 

[Hawkeye]

Recent op GFS runs have been very dry into early November.  However, the GEFS and EPS are wetter, and the AI Euro has trended very wet across my area in the 10-15 day period.  I sure hope it's right.  We need some soakers to replenish the soil before winter.

[chescowxman]

Quite the inversion in temps across the county this morning with about an 18 degree swing from locations below 420 ft ASL like Warwick and West Bradford currently in the mid 30's while higher spots like here in East Nantmeal are in the low 50's. Once the sun gets up everyone warms up well into the 70's with some lower spots possibly touching 80 degrees! The warmth peaks tomorrow before we start to cool down closer to normal to close out this week and into the weekend. Dry weather continues all week!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/43 there was no rainfall, the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 58/41 the record high of 85 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 37 was set in 1925. The record low of 18 was set in 1974 the warmest low was a warm 72 in 1979. The most rainfall of 2.13” fell in 1933 the most snowfall of 1.1” fell in 1976. Last year the H/L was 46/37 and there was 0.35” of rainfall.

I did some yard work yesterday and boy I noticed a lot and I mean a lot of Boxelder bugs and Ladybugs they must be trying to find a place to go for the winter.

[Niko]

36 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/43 there was no rainfall, the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 58/41 the record high of 85 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 37 was set in 1925. The record low of 18 was set in 1974 the warmest low was a warm 72 in 1979. The most rainfall of 2.13” fell in 1933 the most snowfall of 1.1” fell in 1976. Last year the H/L was 46/37 and there was 0.35” of rainfall.

I did some yard work yesterday and boy I noticed a lot and I mean a lot of Boxelder bugs and Ladybugs they must be trying to find a place to go for the winter.

I saw a ladybug too trying to crawl outta my car window as I was opening up my window to enjoy that warm, fresh breeze. Poor thing was trap, so I helped it fly away. Man, that was strange, so late in the season. Am I thinking what you are?? Ma nature might have big surprises in stored for many. 

[Niko]

Approaching near record territory today as my R H tempi is 81F. Forecasted high of 80F, if not better w abundant sunshine.

[Tom]

Happy Monday Folks!  It's nice to see the models starting to trend more active and cooler/seasonal for the GL's/MW and northern tier for this coming week.  The Euro has especially backed off the real warm look for the following weekend.  The culprit?  It was that Big Trough that cutoff from the flow across the Eastern N PAC.  I'm seeing the models have delayed the momentum back east towards the PAC NW/B.C. by late this Fri pm into SAT.  It allows to pump up a transient Western NAMER Ridge in the mid-range.

0z EPS trends...I'm sure this is welcomed to a lot of our Friends!

 

[Hoosier]

Yeah, models have backed off on the warmth in the Midwest for next weekend.  Still possible there is a "pop" of warmth right after that though (early next week).  We shall see.

[Black Hole]

We will have at least some chance of rain here in the next week tonight and again in a few days. This EPS probably makes it look better than it will be, but at least its something. Growing signal for cooler and wetter weather in week 2 but too far away to say much more than that. 

[Hoosier]

Have made it into the low 80s this afternoon.  My mom is down in New Orleans right now and it's the same temp there as it is here.  And NO only has dews in the 40s right now, which is certainly nice for that area.  

[Andie]

A gorgeous 83* with 27% humidity. Sunny.  Winds at 10-12 mph.

Absolute Perfection!! If I could have summers like this I’d never complain.  
 

[Tom]

@CentralNebWeather...nice lookin' storm knocking on your door...

[Tom]

FWIW, this ULL system did not look anywhere near as exciting as it is turning out to be across the heartland of KS/NE.  I'm sure a few our NE members are enjoying this rainfall.  Anything is appreciated at this rate.