October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

New month. Hopefully it can be a little cooler but no Arctic cold until late November, please.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

New month. Hopefully it can be a little cooler but no Arctic cold until late November, please.

I think we are safe from the arctic cold for now. A chilly 37 in CORVALLIS tho.

[Tyler Mode]

39.5 this morning.  Beautiful moon rise and view of the comet too.

Edited October 1 by Tyler Mode

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder when people will find this thread?

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder when people will find this thread?

The Weather Forum's best kept secret.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After yet another top 5 warm month, we get October off to a warm start today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 at BNO

27 at BKE 

This morning.

[Timmy]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder when people will find this thread?

Probably when @iFredpinz it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe things get a little more active mid-month?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully we can have a proper windstorm. Maybe the rare blowdown event.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After yet another top 5 warm month, we get October off to a warm start today. 

Yep, most likely 19 straight months above normal here.

[TT-SEA]

Pinned!

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

New month. Hopefully it can be a little cooler but no Arctic cold until late November, please.

Why?  We had Arctic air in October in 1949, 1956, 1971, 1984, and 2003 which all worked out very well.  Several years with lesser cold events that worked out well too.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully we can have a proper windstorm. Maybe the rare blowdown event.

Not too wild about that.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After yet another top 5 warm month, we get October off to a warm start today. 

A lot of places will average below normal thanks to min temps though.

[Phishy Wx]

Lovely Warm Dry fall to this point. Sept ended +5.6 on temps in Spokane

[Phil]

Our new digs, 29 floors up.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Our new digs, 29 floors up.

Tysons?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Our new digs, 29 floors up.

Nice! Are you going to hang out the side of the building to install the weather station sensors? 

[Phishy Wx]

I'm trying to find a Sept warmer than this in Spokane.  There might be one but I haven't found it yet.  Large period of record though

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm trying to find a Sept warmer than this in Spokane.  There might be one but I haven't found it yet.  Large period of record though

So weird that a few places west of the Cascades actually came out below normal, while locations east and south torched very hard.

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Our new digs, 29 floors up.

There used to be a Comcast engineering office in the south building. Behind you, across the Pike, there are a couple good Indian lunch spots.

[TT-SEA]

Nice pre-frontal warm up... earlier clouds are gone now.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Tysons?

Yep!

We’re packing boxes planning to move officially this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

September didn't do well precip wise and the ECMWF shows less than a half inch for SEA over the next 10 days.  I hope it gets going later in the month.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So weird that a few places west of the Cascades actually came out below normal, while locations east and south torched very hard.

I've gone back 50 years and this is +1.9 warmer than the closest others at +4.0

Torchfest

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm trying to find a Sept warmer than this in Spokane.  There might be one but I haven't found it yet.  Large period of record though

1938 is the only one.  About a degree warmer.  The crazy 1930s strike again.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep!

We’re packing boxes planning to move officially this weekend.

Nice

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

1938 is the only one.  About a degree warmer.  The crazy 1930s strike again.

was that a Nina?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

was that a Nina?

As a matter of fact it was.

[Phishy Wx]

38-39 was a turd until Feb/March.  backloaded winter

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As a matter of fact it was.

There's your Anal Log

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice! Are you going to hang out the side of the building to install the weather station sensors? 

Haha, those are staying back at the old house with the rest of the family. Would probably get crazy wind readings up here though, was like 20mph on the balcony but calm at the ground.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After yet another top 5 warm month, we get October off to a warm start today. 

Doubt we make it out of the 50s here today.  53 currently and starting to rain.  

[Phishy Wx]

A mild, backloaded winter with a SSW in late Jan/early Feb?

HMMMMMM???

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, iFred said:

There used to be a Comcast engineering office in the south building. Behind you, across the Pike, there are a couple good Indian lunch spots.

You’re familiar with Tyson’s? Cool shit.

Will be so much easier not having to commute over the ALB. One of the worst bottlenecks in the country and MD/Wes Moore are dragging their heels on the expansion project. Has been essentially zero infrastructure upgrades since the new admin took over.

We’re not the only ones fed up, MD is hemorrhaging jobs to VA and it will only get worse from here.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

A mild, backloaded winter with a SSW in late Jan/early Feb?

HMMMMMM???

Very unlikely to be a dud winter in the PNW with Niña/+QBO. Even with high solar. Don’t even need stratospheric help or -NAO assist unless the PV is nuclear strong like 1975/76.

NPAC/Aleutian High can amplify enough on its own under niña/+QBO. If we had -QBO instead, the dud risk would definitely be elevated. But that’s not the case this winter.

Though there is always the rare exception. Only oddball since WWII is 1999/00 with its weird IPWP/off-equator regime that diverged significantly from niña climo.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Very unlikely to be a dud winter in the PNW with Niña/+QBO.

Though there is always the rare exception. Super-PV in 1975/75 and bizarre/off-climo IPWP convection in 1999/00 are the only “failed” Niña/+QBO winters in the PNW going back to WWII.

what was the base state in 38-39, I'm just curious

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what was the base state in 38-39, I'm just curious

Don’t have QBO data that far back, and reanalysis only provides limited clues in that regard.

It was likely a +PMM/+PDO decadal regime with augmented WPAC and Off-Equator NPAC convection. But harder to get more specific than that.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Very unlikely to be a dud winter in the PNW with Niña/+QBO. Even with high solar. Don’t even need stratospheric help or -NAO assist unless the PV is nuclear strong like 1975/76.

NPAC/Aleutian High can amplify enough on its own under niña/+QBO. If we had -QBO instead, the dud risk would definitely be elevated. But that’s not the case this winter.

Though there is always the rare exception. Only oddball since WWII is 1999/00 with its weird IPWP/off-equator regime that diverged significantly from niña climo.

99/00 was ugly. But 75/76 was a pretty solid winter for Southern Vancouver island.   42” of snow and at least a couple of sub freezing highs. We can do a lot worse