October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just found out that some of the climate data sites are down due to power outages in Asheville NC.  Pretty incredible a city like that is still have problems this long after the storm.

infrastructure was wiped out for the most part, city doesn't even have water back.  I have friends and family in the vicinity, its a terrible situation, also the NCDC headquarters is in Asheville

[Low Dew point]

6 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Indian Summer, The Best!

 

 

Liking what I’m seeing for here.  

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

65/43 here. I was surprised to see your 41 because it was 50 when I woke up about 3:30 and I hadnt checked again until now. Wind must have died off at some point to get to 43. 

I was actually surprised it didn’t drop lower here than 41. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Really hoping to catch a glimpse of some auroras this weekend. I was in Las Vegas when the big one hit in May. 

[Low Dew point]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

Only got down to 38 at my place, however lots of rooftop frost on my way to work I noticed! (Well lots in about 5 houses that I pass on the 1 mile drive to work) 

No frost at my place yet however. We did harvest our tomatoes yesterday, I am told they are amazing! I dislike tomatoes so I wouldn’t know. 

I harvested grapes.  Not many but she was a small vine.  This was  the first year in the dirt.  These are wine grapes but also seedless table grapes   Called Jupiter   delicious.   Next year will be great    My marionberries put up 14 quarts  

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

infrastructure was wiped out for the most part, city doesn't even have water back.  I have friends and family in the vicinity, its a terrible situation, also the NCDC headquarters is in Asheville

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I harvested grapes.  Not many but she was a small vine.  This was  the first year in the dirt.  These are wine grapes but also seedless table grapes   Called Jupiter   delicious.   Next year will be great    My marionberries put up 14 quarts  

Hmmm.  I've never tired growing marionberries.  Are they as easy as raspberries to grow?

[snow_wizard]

SEA put up a -3 departure today.  Nice!

[Low Dew point]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....starting from seeds is a dicey proposition here.  Not as much as it used to be of course.

If you go that route you have to start like in Feb.indoors.  Lots of inexpensive grow lights nowadays.  

[Low Dew point]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm.  I've never tired growing marionberries.  Are they as easy as raspberries to grow?

Easier.  They aren’t prone to disease or mold.   

[Tenochtitlan]

45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

infrastructure was wiped out for the most part, city doesn't even have water back.  I have friends and family in the vicinity, its a terrible situation, also the NCDC headquarters is in Asheville

Yeah, this wasn’t the kind of storm that just knocks power out for a week and then everything is back to normal, this was basically an inland version of Katrina that destroyed towns and neighborhoods. 

Best wishes for your friends and family. I have seen some amazing shows of community on the Asheville subreddit amidst all the destruction and chaos. 

[Low Dew point]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like Kirk might be a category 5. Thankfully it’s only harming fish.

Sadly it will probably disrupt (F up) the Sargaso Sea.  That’s a huge fish nursery. 

[MossMan]

During my 5yr olds soccer practice one of the girls just stops, points towards the northwest and said “a storm is coming” 

I was kind of disappointed it wasn’t my kid lol! 
 

And quite a sunset! 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

During my 5yr olds soccer practice one of the girls just stops, points towards the northwest and said “a storm is coming” 

I was kind of disappointed it wasn’t my kid lol! 
 

And quite a sunset! 

Your kid would just say IT’S COMING.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice looking cold front about to come in.  The 0z GFS is pretty generous with precip tomorrow and high temps may only be in the upper 50s.  Quick clear out tomorrow night so it gets pretty chilly.  The month is not off to a terrible start by any means.

[snow_wizard]

The pattern gets absolutely dreadful during week two on the GFS.  The best possible outcome would be an inversion and fog if it verifies.  

[LowerGarfield]

Blue Ash aphid season has started here. Another way to tell that it is fall.

[Phil]

11 hours ago, iFred said:

Sold the house or moving out?

Just the 2 of us moving out. The rest of the family is staying back.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Blue Ash aphid season has started here. Another way to tell that it is fall.

That's a new one on me.  Do we have ash trees in this state?

[Meatyorologist]

Radar looks nice offshore.

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Winterdog said:

We cannot get tomatoes to ripen here ever.  We get direct sun until late afternoon but they just stay green.  Here’s a current shot of this yeas crop.  60 degrees currently.

That’s interesting. When we used to grow tomatoes they’d be fully ripe by late July.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

From a precip standpoint it was about as bad as it gets obviously.  The point is the blocking was off the charts and delivered a brutal winter east of the Rockies.  Any blocking that sets up like that in a Nina winter will almost always be further west.  East of the Cascades and some of the approaches to the passes on the west side were quite cold in Jan 1977.

1999-00 was the dead opposite.  No blocking and miserable.

76/77 was neutral or very weak niño depending on metric of reference. It was similar to 2014/15 in terms of the augmented WPAC forcing, though.

[High Desert Mathew]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The pattern gets absolutely dreadful during week two on the GFS.  The best possible outcome would be an inversion and fog if it verifies.  

Ya dreadful. If we’re hoping for a cool and often snowy winter with the +qbo and La Niña, we’d be way better off with a wet October which isn’t looking likely. Cold temps don’t matter in my eyes, which we don’t really have either. Could be a lame duck winter coming. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

39 currently, 73/19 day. With this crazy storm about to hit the region, we might even get a few clouds! October storm for the history books!

 

Glad to be back in woodstove season, having a nice warm fire always makes the house so cozy. Open windows in the afternoon can't keep us warm at this point

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya dreadful. If we’re hoping for a cool and often snowy winter with the +qbo and La Niña, we’d be way better off with a wet October which isn’t looking likely. Cold temps don’t matter in my eyes, which we don’t really have either. Could be a lame duck winter coming. 

I highly doubt it with this base state.  No doubt I would like to see the rain come though.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

76/77 was neutral or very weak niño depending on metric of reference. It was similar to 2014/15 in terms of the augmented WPAC forcing, though.

All I know is I still remember how weird that winter was.  This conversation all got started by the fact 1976 was one of the years we had the high NAO summer followed by a crash in early autumn.  Some of the more similar years had off the charts blocking that winter.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the first week of October will average below normal for places in NW WA.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya dreadful. If we’re hoping for a cool and often snowy winter with the +qbo and La Niña, we’d be way better off with a wet October which isn’t looking likely. Cold temps don’t matter in my eyes, which we don’t really have either. Could be a lame duck winter coming. 

The pattern now has zero bearing on winter. This has been demonstrated repeatedly, yet the myth continues to perpetuate.

Too early for coupling with the stratospheric PV, and E-Hem monsoonal/warm season forcing modes are still present. There is no predictive value for DJF at this time of year.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All I know is I still remember how weird that winter was.  This conversation all got started by the fact 1976 was one of the years we had the high NAO summer followed by a crash in early autumn.  Some of the more similar years had off the charts blocking that winter.

That was a solar min/-QBO winter, though. Not exactly an analog.

[High Desert Mathew]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

The pattern now has zero bearing on winter. This has been demonstrated repeatedly, yet the myth continues to perpetuate.

Too early for coupling with the stratospheric PV, and E-Hem monsoonal/warm season forcing modes are still present. There is no predictive value for DJF at this time of year.

So is it pure chance that when we get a wet October we often see the goods in the winter?  
 

Also, do you think November weather has a bearing on that winter? As some of our best winters have had warm/dry Novembers. . 

[Gradient Keeper]

A fairly potent early fall cold front lurks offshore. The radar returns off the Washington Coast look impressive.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A fairly potent early fall cold front lurks offshore. The radar returns off the Washington Coast look impressive.

I like how sharp the front is also.  From clear to cloudy to clear in about 18 hours.

[SpaceRace22]

5 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Really hoping to catch a glimpse of some auroras this weekend. I was in Las Vegas when the big one hit in May. 

Well I caught it from Southern California back in May, so you def could have seen it from near Vegas then. No excuse lol

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So is it pure chance that when we get a wet October we often see the goods in the winter?  
 

Also, do you think November weather has a bearing on that winter? As some of our best winters have had warm/dry Novembers. . 

It is amazing how many absolute turd winters were preceded by dry Octobers.  There are three extremely notable exceptions though.

1929

1972 

1978

All of those featured absolute top tier cold.

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A fairly potent early fall cold front lurks offshore. The radar returns off the Washington Coast look impressive.

Don't think I've said it yet.. Welcome back Rob! glad to lease ya for another winter

[Phil]

54 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So is it pure chance that when we get a wet October we often see the goods in the winter?  
 

Also, do you think November weather has a bearing on that winter? As some of our best winters have had warm/dry Novembers. . 

That connection doesn’t exist. It’s a combination of cherrypicking, misattribution, and flawed/anecdotal recollection.

The whole thing is basically a religious belief held by a couple of individuals on this forum. The whole premise collapses once you get beyond simple, linear, one-to-one correlations.

For reference, some of the driest niña-leaning autumns were 2022, 2008, and 1988. All were very dry in October, and all were followed by significant winters in the PNW.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It is amazing how many absolute turd winters were preceded by dry Octobers.  There are three extremely notable exceptions though.

1929

1972 

1978

All of those featured absolute top tier cold.

You forgot 2022, 2008, and 1988. And others I’m probably forgetting.

There is no relationship. It cannot physically exist! The structure of tropical-extratropical teleconnections changes massively (even spatially inverts in some cases) from October to DJF.

In October, *phase-8* MJO/RMM is statistically the coolest/wettest in the PNW. In January, it is the driest/ridgiest. Vice-versa for RMM phases 4/5. There is no spatial similarity to the extratropical responses to tropical forcing over the lower-48 between autumn and winter.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't checked the EPS too often lately... but it still looks generally quiet in terms of active weather.

[Phil]

Eurasian snowcover build-up is decent on the 00z EPS. Could help expedite the development of the Siberian high and seasonal decay of residual monsoonal forcing.

No cold whatsoever on our side of the globe yet, though.

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Eurasian snowcover build-up is decent on the 00z EPS. Could help expedite the development of the Siberian high and seasonal decay of residual monsoonal forcing.

No cold whatsoever on our side of the globe yet, though.

I've got a feeling about this winter. There's a buzz to the air and I think we're going to see something we haven't experienced in several decades, especially south of the border. The analogs mentioned this Fall have compiled nothing short of a list of BANGERS, including 1988-89, 1972-73, and at the top of the list an underrated near-masterpiece of a winter in 2010-11. The latter of the three in particular stands out to me, since it was only a few adjustments in January away from being an all-timer, and it was also a -ENSO/+QBO year, coming off an El Niño, at the tail end of a +PDO phase. Not to mention its comparative recency. I think another go-around will fare very well for us.