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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the rainfall data from the AR on the 18th and 19th is missing for Bellingham.  Bummer.  I'm sure that contributed to the mud slide they just had.

Actually it looks like a huge chunk of carpet padding over a 2.5' culvert is likely a major contributor.   Looks like 1 car and 1 semi were trapped in the mud, and they are estimating 2,000 cubic yards was deposited onto the freeway.  Nobody was hurt, and they were finally able to get the semi freed around lunchtime.  Having said all that, yeah the AR rain didn't help matters.  Unfortunately, I don't have my data either, but going back through the Whatcom weather page, the 2 day total at KBLI was 1.97"

There was also a lot of street flooding in town, and I think a few homes got flooded as well.  On top of all that, a 68' fishing vessel caught fire in the marina around 2am.  I'm sure all the rain made containing any spilled hazmat materials a real b*tch to try and contain.  Busy night for our first responders up here.

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Good shear has made this into a blustery, wet day. Usually Seattle gets shadowed really badly during setups like these but it's actually been a very damp day for almost everyone.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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1.9" storm total thus far here thanks to some very favorable banding last night and well placed squalling today.

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  • Rain 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Improvements are being made in long range forecasting though.

2+ weeks out is still 🤡, though. 3+ weeks out, even more so.

Way too early to give up on November.

Wishcasting in reverse (doomcasting if you will) is still a form of wishcasting.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2+ weeks out is still 🤡, though. 3+ weeks out, even more so.

Way too early to give up on November.

We saw this current pattern coming from far away. Didn’t end up being a cold pattern but it is somewhat close.

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

And this is how my winter will be as well….i’m out 😡.
House up for sale …. lol

 

 

I can relate. I got totally donut-holed on this storm with just 1/3" total when everyone else around me got 1/2" to 1" or more. 😢 Looking at properties in places were it actually RAINS.

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I’m really impressed by the heavy rain event in Bellingham last night. I had no idea it was possible for even an inch of rain to fall in an hour there. And they got 1.42 inches! 

What are the 1-hour records at other stations? PDX, SEA, etc.? If I’m remembering right SEA got almost an inch in one hour in 2006.

Could be that climate change will increase these extreme rain events here, as is happening in so many other places around the world.

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1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Whoa, just saw it rained 1.42” in an hour last night at BLI. That’s flash flood territory and surely breaks their all-time record of one-hour precipitation.

Saw the radar loop of that last night. A line of juicy convection ripped and sat over western Whatcom county (probably over the airport) for several frames before steering winds finally guided it east. Probably 30 minutes of sitting inside of a warm-core convective downdraft at peak intensity. Rare around these parts.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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Looks like we got 0.47" on the day so far.

Currently 54F with the occasional shower.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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If anything the majority of that rainfall fell in 30 minutes. Over an inch in 30 minutes is biblical for WA.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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IMG_3753.png

I can hear this inside the warehouse I'm working in

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saw the radar loop of that last night. A line of juicy convection ripped and sat over western Whatcom county (probably over the airport) for several frames before steering winds finally guided it east. Probably 30 minutes of sitting inside of a warm-core convective downdraft at peak intensity. Rare around these parts.

But it looks like there was no lightning? 

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Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

But it looks like there was no lightning? 

No positive strikes. I'm sure there were a couple negatively charged bolts shrouded in the heavy precip high in the clouds. But the convection itself was shallow/weak anyways so it's very probable they were just heavy showers too.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No positive strikes. I'm sure there were a couple negatively charged bolts shrouded in the heavy precip high in the clouds. But the convection itself was shallow/weak anyways so it's very probable they were just heavy showers too.

Interesting. It goes to show our region isn’t immune to the “rain bombs” that climate change is making more common around the world.

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Good shear has made this into a blustery, wet day. Usually Seattle gets shadowed really badly during setups like these but it's actually been a very damp day for almost everyone.

We get plenty of these situations with SW flow like we had today.  W or WNW are the ones that don't work out well for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Double barreled and lacking jet support.

NEXT.

Not to mention how suspect it is a low of that strength would make landfall that far south.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Ended up with 1.43" from everything.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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